Who’s to blame...

[moonslav59]

Of the guys you list, only one was a power pitcher in Verlander. I know the others had heaters early on, but Santana, Greinke and Halladay were as much about location, movement, depth of arsenal and command as they were power. They had an arsenal that would age well. Verlander and Sale are different beasts. Verlander was only okay when his velo dropped. WAR still of 3-ish but he saw a 2-3 mph drop in his velocity. After moving to Houston, he regained his power. Fishy as hell if you ask me.

 

Also, Verlander is on his way to another 200IP season which will be 12 of the last 13 for him. He really hasn’t had an injury like Sale had where immediately thereafter he lost his heater. CC did (bone chips in elbow). Sale is a power pitcher. Mid to high 90s, power slider, okay change. Wait, a lefty with a good fastball, power slider and okay change? Who does that remind me of? (Hint, CC) He doesn’t really run anything in on lefties. He doesn’t really rely on impeccable command in the zone but he can throw strikes. He’s a good morning, good afternoon, and good night kind of pitcher. You can’t challenge guys without big velocity and he’s learned that this year. If he drops further in 2020, then it’ll be pretty apparent that he’s following the CC path. They’re very similar.

 

I totally disagree.

 

Sale has had impeccable "command," except for a few games this year. You don't have the all time best K/BB ratio by not having excellent command.

 

He's led the league in HBP's twice, so he surely "comes in" on batters- often with heat.

 

Maybe Johan Santana, also a lefty, is a better comp. He dealt with an injury, had an off year at age 28 and then 3 excellent seasons afterwards (although he missed a few starts in 2 of those years). He got injured again, later.

 

Another lefty, Cliff Lee, who led the league in K/BB ratio had a two year down stretch at ages 31-32, then bounced back to have 3 great seasons and a decent but shortened 4th season.

 

Maybe another tall lefty might be the best comp of all, and he's not on the list due to not being around for the time period I chose: Randy Johnson.

 

Anyways, I did not create this list to try and fine the closest comp to Sale. I created the list to highlight that the whole idea that pitchers over 30 are all but doomed to decline doesn't seem to apply to the best of the best. Sale has clearly been one of the best.

 

He's started with nastier stuff than many on this list. That should be a plus when looking at his future outlook, yet somehow you hold it against him. He's already shown he has not lost the nastiness; he's just lost the consistency of velocity and location. Despite all that, he still has his best K/9 rate of his career. This is in the midst of "losing it." How many of the starters on my list had their best K rate in their "off year(s)?"

 

Sale is unique. I've shown how the best of the best way more often than not have very good to excellent seasons after a down tick. About a third do even better!

 

I see no reason why we should think Sale will be more like Felix Hernandez, CC, Jake Peavy or Buehrle than the other 12 on the list. I'm not saying I know how he will do going forward. My issue with you is that you seem more certain than I that he will be more like CC than the vast majority of names on the list, not that becoming CC- maybe quicker than 3 down years- is a bad thing.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I totally disagree.

 

Sale has had impeccable "command," except for a few games this year. You don't have the all time best K/BB ratio by not having excellent command.

 

He's led the league in HBP's twice, so he surely "comes in" on batters- often with heat.

 

You mistake what I wrote. I didn't say he doesn't come in. Clearly he does. I meant he has nothing that moves in on a lefty or away from a righty.

 

Maybe Johan Santana, also a lefty, is a better comp. He dealt with an injury, had an off year at age 28 and then 3 excellent seasons afterwards (although he missed a few starts in 2 of those years). He got injured again, later.

 

Another lefty, Cliff Lee, who led the league in K/BB ratio had a two year down stretch at ages 31-32, then bounced back to have 3 great seasons and a decent but shortened 4th season.

 

Johan Santana saw his first big velocity drop in 2007. Strangely, it went from a career high of 93.1 down to 91.7. The year before the career high velocity, though, he was 92.4, so not a major drop from where he was prior. Santana had that velocity drop and never recovered. His velo went from 93.1-91.7-91.2-90.5-89.4. Santana had 3 straight near or over 7 WAR seasons. In his first velo drop year, he went down to 4. He jumped to 5.3 in his move to the NL then down to 3.5-3.7-1.5 and done. Santana was of slighter build and had a shoulder injury, so maybe you are onto something. But the velocity drop for Santana saw his K rate drop and his Hr rate skyrocket. Sale's K rate isn't dropping, but the HR rate is. Maybe Sale has one more season of 5WAR in him before his velo drops further?

 

Lee isn't the right comp. Lee was always a soft tosser with a max average velo of 91.7 in his career. From 08-2011, Lee was a 6.4-7.4WAR starter then was a 5WAR starter for 2 more years before injuries took him. The best years and even the 2 5WAR years do coincide with his highest average FB velocity (over 90mph) with his biggest in season decline (12-13) showing no considerable change in outcome mostly since he dropped to a place he was rarely at previously.

 

 

Maybe another tall lefty might be the best comp of all, and he's not on the list due to not being around for the time period I chose: Randy Johnson.

 

Anyways, I did not create this list to try and fine the closest comp to Sale. I created the list to highlight that the whole idea that pitchers over 30 are all but doomed to decline doesn't seem to apply to the best of the best. Sale has clearly been one of the best.

 

RJ may be a great comp because but he didn't see his big velocity drop until he was 40, but he did drop 1mph in going to NYY after gaining 1mph the year prior, but he changed who he was in NYY. His pitch selection showed a 10% increase in fastball usage in a year where the heater dropped. It never recovered after that. Listen, I am not saying Sale is done or terrible or whatever. I am saying that the days of Sale being a dominant force of nature are likely over. He will have games like he had last night. Then he will mix in games where he gets s*** on because the fastball velocity is waning.

 

As a matter of fact, this exercise almost entirely proved the point I am making. The big velocity drops outside of Verlander are almost never followed up by a better than peak season and almost never see a recovery to previous levels of performance.

 

He's started with nastier stuff than many on this list. That should be a plus when looking at his future outlook, yet somehow you hold it against him. He's already shown he has not lost the nastiness; he's just lost the consistency of velocity and location. Despite all that, he still has his best K/9 rate of his career. This is in the midst of "losing it." How many of the starters on my list had their best K rate in their "off year(s)?"

 

Sale is unique. I've shown how the best of the best way more often than not have very good to excellent seasons after a down tick. About a third do even better!

 

I see no reason why we should think Sale will be more like Felix Hernandez, CC, Jake Peavy or Buehrle than the other 12 on the list. I'm not saying I know how he will do going forward. My issue with you is that you seem more certain than I that he will be more like CC than the vast majority of names on the list, not that becoming CC- maybe quicker than 3 down years- is a bad thing.

 

 

Not seeing the comps to CC or any of the other pitchers you noted is your issue, not mine. Sale had a dominant arsenal. He has seen said his once elite FB velocity drop a bunch and has seen his performance and HR rate increase. EVERY SINGLE PITCHER on the list above saw this happen. Every single one was never the same again. Most guys on the list above pitched well after the velo drop, but they never reached the heights they saw beforehand

[Carpin]

I wonder when you’ll realize every time you tell us how Sale is done, every time you get excited over his “death nail” contract, every time you predict the harbinger that is his future... Luis Severino has another setback.

 

Did you just hear that? That little “thwack” noise off in the distance? Sounded like tendon snapping...

 

Really, hoping for a player to get injured????

 

Not even Pedro Martinez, I wanted him to get punched in the face but never injured

[jacksonianmarch]

Really, hoping for a player to get injured????

 

Not even Pedro Martinez, I wanted him to get punched in the face but never injured

 

Pretty low, right

[notin]

Really, hoping for a player to get injured????

 

Not even Pedro Martinez, I wanted him to get punched in the face but never injured

 

Where did you learn to read? That says nothing like that. Now, jacko’s diatribes about how much he likes Sale’s extension and his subsequent comparisons might fall into that category...

[S5Dewey]

Where did you learn to read? That says nothing like that. Now, jacko’s diatribes about how much he likes Sale’s extension and his subsequent comparisons might fall into that category...

 

There must be more than one here who didn't learn how to read because I took it the same way too.

 

Could it be...... naw... it's got to be us.

[notin]

There must be more than one here who didn't learn how to read because I took it the same way too.

 

Could it be...... naw... it's got to be us.

 

I never ignore the possibility. I never said I hoped a pitcher who was already injured would get injured. It was a reminder of karma over his Joy of Sale...

[Kimmi]

Sale's K/9 and K/BB ratio are the best of all time, and quite a bit higher than CC's at the same point in time.

 

Sale's peripheral stats are very good. He is pitching a lot better than his ERA indicates.

[Carpin]

I never ignore the possibility. I never said I hoped a pitcher who was already injured would get injured. It was a reminder of karma over his Joy of Sale...

 

I never seen anybody (not even Jacko) enjoying Sale's misfortune or possible injury, in fact, I'm on record saying that if a there's a pitcher currently in the league who can survive with a few less MPH, that pitcher is Sale, the guy has at least 4 different pitches above average. At the same time it would be foolish, not to allow him some time to adjust a new pitching style

[moonslav59]

Sale's peripheral stats are very good. He is pitching a lot better than his ERA indicates.

 

Yes, so Sale started out higher than many on my list, and his low point is not as bad as his ERA shows and not as low as many of the low points of pitchers on my list, yet Jacko seems to be so sure, he will never come back to near where he was before.

 

His K/BB rate (5.9) is better than his career number (5.4).

 

His xFIP- (74) is better than his last year with the CWS in 2016 and is equal to or better than his 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons in Chicago. His xFIP of 2.91 is only slightly higher than his career 2.91 mark.

 

His BAbip (.312) in higher than his career .293 mark and his second highest of any season.

 

His WHIP (1.09) is slightly higher than his career mark (1.03). He was at 1.09 in 2015 and higher in 2012(1.14) and 2011 (1.11).

 

His SIERA of 3.01 is not far from his career 2.82. He's had 3 seasons worse than 3.01.

 

The numbers that are most off are:

HR/9 (1.41)-- career 0.94 (His previous high was 1.07)

HR/FB (18.6)-- career 11.8

Hard hit% (36%)-- career 28%

ERA 4.41--career 3.02 (previous high 3.41)

 

 

[moonslav59]

I never seen anybody (not even Jacko) enjoying Sale's misfortune or possible injury, in fact, I'm on record saying that if a there's a pitcher currently in the league who can survive with a few less MPH, that pitcher is Sale, the guy has at least 4 different pitches above average. At the same time it would be foolish, not to allow him some time to adjust a new pitching style

 

Yes, and we're not really sure he has lost his velocity for good. He threw very hard, yesterday.

 

His velo charts are not far off from his 2016 and previous seasons.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2011&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, and we're not really sure he has lost his velocity for good. He threw very hard, yesterday.

 

His velo charts are not far off from his 2016 and previous seasons.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2011&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

 

His velocity is coming and going. Some days it’s there, others, it isn’t. That’s how it usually starts. There are some that show up in ST and you’re like “where’d the heat go?” But most of the time it’s a waxing and waning of the heater until it stops returning and stays down.

[Slasher9]

IMO not much difference between rooting for an injury vs rooting/wishing/endlessly blabbing how a player now sucks.

[Slasher9]

His velocity is coming and going. Some days it’s there, others, it isn’t. That’s how it usually starts. There are some that show up in ST and you’re like “where’d the heat go?” But most of the time it’s a waxing and waning of the heater until it stops returning and stays down.

 

He just pitched a gem. Go suck severinos cock

[jacksonianmarch]

He did pitch a gem. Brought you guys one game closer. Only 16 to go!

[notin]

He did pitch a gem. Brought you guys one game closer. Only 16 to go!

 

 

You know, it has been done before...

[moonslav59]

His velocity is coming and going. Some days it’s there, others, it isn’t. That’s how it usually starts. There are some that show up in ST and you’re like “where’d the heat go?” But most of the time it’s a waxing and waning of the heater until it stops returning and stays down.

 

Wishful thinking. His velo is almost identical to several prior years when with the CWS- great seasons, I might add.

[Nick]

He did pitch a gem. Brought you guys one game closer. Only 16 to go!

 

I will tip my cap if you win the whole thing. Everyone else is in second place. You still have some work to do.

[moonslav59]

I will tip my cap if you win the whole thing. Everyone else is in second place. You still have some work to do.

 

The Yanks can certainly win it all, but I think their over concentration on the pen vs the rotation will bite them in the ass in the playoffs.

 

They have a great offense, when healthy.

 

Their pen looks great and is #1 in pen WAR, but they have some secondary numbers that, while still very good, show that other teams have pens just as goodo r very close.

 

ERA-

68 CLE

82 NYY

84 TBR

85 HOU

 

FIP

3.82 CLE

3.92 SFG

3.99 STL

4.02 SDP

4.40 NYY

4.05 TBR

4.08 OAK

4.09 MN

4.15 BOS

4.25 LAD

 

K/BB

3.4 SD

3.2 CLE

3.0 HOU

2.9 MN

2.9 TBR

2.9 TBR

2.9 NYY

2.7 STL

2.6 BOS

 

[OH FOY]

Dodgers got 2 hit last night and almost won. This is team that's tough. Young, Great Pitching, and they can grind. Last years loss to the Sox helped them this year.

[oldtimer]

Dodgers got 2 hit last night and almost won. This is team that's tough. Young, Great Pitching, and they can grind. Last years loss to the Sox helped them this year.

 

The Astros won scoring modestly. Their pitching is that good.

[moonslav59]

The Astros won scoring modestly. Their pitching is that good.

 

The Astros are 6th in runs scored.

Offense

691 NYY

684 BOS

668 MN

636 ATL (no DH)

635 LAD (no DH)

623 HOU

10. OAK at 595 (big park)

 

Pitching & Defense (Runs allowed)

453 LAD (no DH)

455 TBR

455 CLE

459 HOU

485 CIN (no DH)

492 STL (no DH)

501 Cubs (no DH)

506 OAK

12. NYY at 538

24. BOS at 615

 

Houston's offense ranks higher than the Yanks Pitching/Defense.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Gotta love the pickups of Sanchez and Biagini by the Stros underneath the radar of Greinke.

 

Feels like the moves of a team that is going to win it all.

[Slasher9]

Pitching = parades.

NYY do not have pitching.

Enjoy the ALE division winner T-shirt

[Bellhorn04]

Pitching = parades.

NYY do not have pitching.

Enjoy the ALE division winner T-shirt

 

Yeah, I hope Cashman gets burnt to a crisp for not addressing the pitching at the deadline.

[Slasher9]

duplicate

[notin]

Pitching = parades.

NYY do not have pitching.

Enjoy the ALE division winner T-shirt

 

And matching hat!!! Don’t undersell it!

[dannycater]

I'm going to have to lay blame at least for the last 2 losses on Cora. He made decisions to sit key guys when rest is not a priority, but wins are. He set team up for failure. Maybe he's mailing it in. His odd pitching decisions and timing of the moves also disturbing. Bottom line, the team is officially done and it's not even middle of August.

[moonslav59]

I'm going to have to lay blame at least for the last 2 losses on Cora. He made decisions to sit key guys when rest is not a priority, but wins are. He set team up for failure. Maybe he's mailing it in. His odd pitching decisions and timing of the moves also disturbing. Bottom line, the team is officially done and it's not even middle of August.

 

Cora has realized it's time to lose and raise our draft pick slot.

 

Genius!

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yanks can certainly win it all, but I think their over concentration on the pen vs the rotation will bite them in the ass in the playoffs.

 

They have a great offense, when healthy.

 

Their pen looks great and is #1 in pen WAR, but they have some secondary numbers that, while still very good, show that other teams have pens just as goodo r very close.

 

ERA-

68 CLE

82 NYY

84 TBR

85 HOU

 

FIP

3.82 CLE

3.92 SFG

3.99 STL

4.02 SDP

4.40 NYY

4.05 TBR

4.08 OAK

4.09 MN

4.15 BOS

4.25 LAD

 

K/BB

3.4 SD

3.2 CLE

3.0 HOU

2.9 MN

2.9 TBR

2.9 TBR

2.9 NYY

2.7 STL

2.6 BOS

 

 

Our "bullpen" numbers are heavily skewed by our opener strategy. For the most part, the only guys who are gonna see the light of day in a playoff game where the game hangs in the balance will be Kahnle, Britton, Ottavino, Chapman, and Betances (assuming he is healthy). Green would be next up on that list as he was absolutely horrible in April, wasn't great in May and has been lights out the last 2.5 months