2019 Trade Deadline Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Rumors are starting to fly as the beat writers need to meet deadlines and the bore of the ASG is in full force. There are about 7 teams right now completely out of it and by the deadline there will definitely be more. The strange rumors coming out of Cleveland make me wonder about their viability and whether they think they are real contenders. The rumors out of TB are also strange. Both teams seem less inclined to go for it if there is only a reasonable shot at a WC berth. Both teams seem to be shifting their model based on the division. The Guardians start out the post ASB run with a 3 gamer vs the Twins and are 5.5 back. If they get swept, they are likely to sell Trevor Bauer for now assets to add to their putrid outfield. The Yanks and Astros are heavily in on Bauer with the Astros having more weapons to deal. Bauer is a FA after 2020, so he comes with a second year of control.

 

The Rays have said they are not going to aggressively add if the only real chance they have is for a WC berth. They have a ton of MiLB talent and a pretty good MLB club who is already in a WC slot right now, so it would be weird to see a playoff team not add because they have a 1 game playoff in their future.

 

The Yanks have been talking to Toronto about Stroman and even a Stroman-Giles package. No word on if the two teams would be willing to consummate a bigger deal than the Happ deal recently done last yr. The last thing the Yanks would want is to send real prospects north of the border and have them beat us in the next couple seasons, but it is a possibility.

 

The Sox are casting a "wide net" for starter and relievers with the sox currently setting their sights on Wheeler from the Mets. Wheeler finished 2018 on a roll and is gaining momentum again as a potential high end starter. He is a rental, so his price would be lower, but in an arms race, he has the best one. He was regularly hitting 99mph against the Yanks when he shut down their potent offense

[jacksonianmarch]

Newest rumor is the Yanks are “interested” in Robby Ray. Not worth it, IMO. He’s a 5IP pitcher who K’s a lot of guys. He’s only a good add I’d he doesn’t cost anything substantial

[OH FOY]

Newest rumor is the Yanks are “interested” in Robby Ray. Not worth it, IMO. He’s a 5IP pitcher who K’s a lot of guys. He’s only a good add I’d he doesn’t cost anything substantial

 

Sounds to me like the Yanks are going cheap, if Ray is their focus.

* Didn't know he was that young. Walking a lot of batters this year, that is not his norm. Last year pretty high too.

Edited July 9, 2019 by OH FOY!

[jacksonianmarch]

Everyone is their focus. I’ve seen them “heavily involved” in Stroman, Ray, and Bauer. I’m not seeing them involved in Bumgarner, which is fine by me unless he starts going on a run

[OH FOY]

I worry about Stroman and Giles, especially if Giles has really found himself again. That makes your BP even stronger, for a guy like Stroman and your staff. Seems like 6 innings is what you get nowadays, you absolutely need a long and strong BP.

[notin]

Newest rumor is the Yanks are “interested” in Robby Ray. Not worth it, IMO. He’s a 5IP pitcher who K’s a lot of guys. He’s only a good add I’d he doesn’t cost anything substantial

 

With the Yankee bullpen, a “5IP Pitcher” like Ray wouldn’t be a big detriment.

 

But AZ is still in the thick of the WC hunt, so you have to give up enough to make them walk away.

 

Or take Greinke or Tomas from them to make it worth their while...

[jacksonianmarch]

With the Yankee bullpen, a “5IP Pitcher” like Ray wouldn’t be a big detriment.

 

But AZ is still in the thick of the WC hunt, so you have to give up enough to make them walk away.

 

Or take Greinke or Tomas from them to make it worth their while...

 

If you go out and get Ray, you're getting him for 2019 and 2020. I don't know what our pen looks like in 2020. Chapman can opt out. Betances (granted, on the IL) will likely be gone. It is still a good pen, but losing that closer and asking a guy like Britton to close isn't going to give the same result. Britton has lost the ability to strike guys out. Now, he is a very effective reliever as he gets a ton of GB's, but when a guy needs a K as a closer, Britton isn't your guy

[bkzwhitestrican]

Here's a pretty fun tool that lets you come up with trade scenarios using derived trade values for every player: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Based on this Wheeler would cost the Sox something like Casas and Lakins; and Roobie Ray would cost the Yanks something like Clint Frazier and Garrett Whitlock

 

If anything this should at least help dispel the idea that you can trade all of your scrubs away to get a good player.

[moonslav59]

Here's a pretty fun tool that lets you come up with trade scenarios using derived trade values for every player: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Based on this Wheeler would cost the Sox something like Casas and Lakins; and Roobie Ray would cost the Yanks something like Clint Frazier and Garrett Whitlock

 

If anything this should at least help dispel the idea that you can trade all of your scrubs away to get a good player.

 

We'll see. I still think there will be more pitchers available than needed, and the prices will be low on some decent pitchers.

[notin]

We'll see. I still think there will be more pitchers available than needed, and the prices will be low on some decent pitchers.

 

With the entire NL except Miami within 7 games of a wild card, there may not be as many sellers as you anticipate. Especially since 11 NL teams are within 2.5 games right now...

[dgalehouse]

With the entire NL except Miami within 7 games of a wild card, there may not be as many sellers as you anticipate. Especially since 11 NL teams are within 2.5 games right now...

 

The N.L. has done a much better job of maintaining a competitive balance . The A.L. having a number of teams 25 - 30 games behind at the All Star break is terrible . I don't know what the figures are , but I would guess that N.L. attendance is better than A.L. attendance . No wonder .

[moonslav59]

With the entire NL except Miami within 7 games of a wild card, there may not be as many sellers as you anticipate. Especially since 11 NL teams are within 2.5 games right now...

 

That means very little to many teams. In the past, teams have been sellers (TB & Pitt come to mind) while in the heat of a playoff run.

 

AL Sellers

100% sure

5-BAL, DET, KCR, TOR, SEA

75% sure

2-CWS, LAA

50+% sure

1-TEX

 

NL

100% sure

3-MIA, NYM, SF

75% sure

4-CIN, PIT, COL, SD

50+% sure

2-STL, AZ

 

I have 14 teams as very likely sellers (75%+) and 3 more that are about 50-50 now. Things may change by the deadline, but I'm guessing 15+ teams will be sellers.

 

I certainly may be wrong, but I think close to 15 teams will be shopping players- some may not be good players, and some may be just salary dumps.

 

 

[Swiharts Ghost]

Newest rumor is the Yanks are “interested” in Robby Ray. Not worth it, IMO. He’s a 5IP pitcher who K’s a lot of guys. He’s only a good add I’d he doesn’t cost anything substantial

 

Hey Bud Thankyou for starting this thread !!

[notin]

Here's a pretty fun tool that lets you come up with trade scenarios using derived trade values for every player: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Based on this Wheeler would cost the Sox something like Casas and Lakins; and Roobie Ray would cost the Yanks something like Clint Frazier and Garrett Whitlock

 

If anything this should at least help dispel the idea that you can trade all of your scrubs away to get a good player.

 

 

Using that page, the Sox could trade Dustin Pedroia for all three of Mark Melancon, Jeff Samardzija, and Joe Panik.

 

But they probably shouldn’t...

[d-money]

I haven’t read his name but danny duffy is the guy i want if we can’t get wheeler from the mets. A lefty. Edited July 10, 2019 by d-money

[notin]

I haven’t read his name but danny duffy is the guy i want if we can’t get wheeler from the Guardians. A lefty.

 

Duffy imakes $15mill this year and is owed $30.75 mill for 2020 and 2021. If the Sox are not adding much salary, Duffy is not an option...

[d-money]

Duffy imakes $15mill this year and is owed $30.75 mill for 2020 and 2021. If the Sox are not adding much salary, Duffy is not an option...

 

I didn’t know he was making that much money.

[oldtimer]

Stroman and Giles to us and we give up Darwizon Hernandez, Mike Shawaryn, Michael Chavis or Andrew Bennintendi and we throw in Rusney Castillo and eat his remaqining salary. They would eat some of Stroman and Giles salaries to keep us under the second tier of the competitive balance tax. They get a very good young major leaguer, a decent fill in ooutfielder, two good pitching prospects and we get what we need at a price we could live with.

[notin]

I think they’ll move Giles and Stroman in separate deals and get a much better overall package...

[illinoisredsox]

Stroman and Giles to us and we give up Darwizon Hernandez, Mike Shawaryn, Michael Chavis or Andrew Bennintendi and we throw in Rusney Castillo and eat his remaqining salary. They would eat some of Stroman and Giles salaries to keep us under the second tier of the competitive balance tax. They get a very good young major leaguer, a decent fill in ooutfielder, two good pitching prospects and we get what we need at a price we could live with.

 

That's not going to keep us under the second tier. Castillo is owed around $25 million through 2021 and the second he is brought up to the majors, it goes against the Sox cap if we are eating the salary.

 

The only way he goes anywhere is if the other team takes the whole contract and that's not going to happen at his cost.

[OH FOY]

Castillo is the happiest baseball player to never played the game.

[notin]

Castillo is the happiest baseball player to never played the game.

 

I’d think his relegation to Pawtucket Purgatory would make him the unhappiest. Or at least in a contest with fellow countryman Yasmany Tomas for the honor...

[oldtimer]

That's not going to keep us under the second tier. Castillo is owed around $25 million through 2021 and the second he is brought up to the majors, it goes against the Sox cap if we are eating the salary.

 

The only way he goes anywhere is if the other team takes the whole contract and that's not going to happen at his cost.

 

My mistake.

[jacksonianmarch]

Any money’s changing hands is counted on your cap. Toronto would accept that deal in a heartbeat. Absolutely. It’s questionable as to whether that deal makes the Sox better. Short term, maybe, but the offense takes a hit. Long term, absolutely not. Toronto might even eat Rusney’s contract for you. Imagine that infield for the future is of Chavis-Biggio-Bichette-Guerrero. That’s too much for 1.5 years of Stroman and Giles

[notin]

Any money’s changing hands is counted on your cap. Toronto would accept that deal in a heartbeat. Absolutely. It’s questionable as to whether that deal makes the Sox better. Short term, maybe, but the offense takes a hit. Long term, absolutely not. Toronto might even eat Rusney’s contract for you. Imagine that infield for the future is of Chavis-Biggio-Bichette-Guerrero. That’s too much for 1.5 years of Stroman and Giles

 

Per the trade simulator, the Sox come out far ahead in that lopsided deal, and it doesn’t even allow me to put in Castillo and his (certain to be) negative value...

[jacksonianmarch]

Far ahead? Like they’re fleecing the Jays?

[notin]

Far ahead? Like they’re fleecing the Jays?

 

Yes.

 

The extra years of control are a big factor.

 

Stroman has a trade value of 26.8. Giles of 10.7

 

Chavis has 12.1. Hernandez has 5.1. Shawaryn has 0.9.

 

So it’s 37.5 to Boston but only 18.10 to Toronto. Even adding Jarren Duran (8.8) doesn’t even it up...

[jacksonianmarch]

He has Beni going too

[notin]

He has Beni going too

 

I believe he said Benintendi or Chavis.

 

Sending Benintendi instead flips the trade strongly in favor of Toronto...

[jacksonianmarch]

Ah, I read it wrong. Casas, Chavis, DHern, and maybe Duran gets it done