A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[notin]

WAR is a debate-ender when we want it to be, and when we don't want it to be it's "just another tool".

 

Actually you’re the only one who calls WAR a debate ended. And if it stops you from debating, in some ways it is...

[oldtimer]

If I went down the list of all field players at each position and selected a team based strictly on WAR, without seeing players names or anything beyond WAR and it was numerically better than any other team competing with it, would that team be a probable winner and go well in the playoffs? I would think other aspects like team chemistry (not measureable) management decision making and other factors come into play and are quite important. WAR is a helpful number in selecting players but can't be the only factor considered.

[S5Dewey]

Actually you’re the only one who calls WAR a debate ended. And if it stops you from debating, in some ways it is...

 

I'm the only one who's honest enough to admit it. The natural tendency is to believe something you can hang your hat on. When someone says, "I've got a six page formula that says that JBJ is only marginally better than a AAAA player and all you've got is your eyes"... what's the response to that? Doesn't it pretty much end the conversation?

 

I feel badly for those people who have so little faith in their own judgement that they believe that JBJ is only marginally better defensively than that AAAA player.

[moonslav59]

I'm the only one who's honest enough to admit it. The natural tendency is to believe something you can hang your hat on. When someone says, "I've got a six page formula that says that JBJ is only marginally better than a AAAA player and all you've got is your eyes"... what's the response to that? Doesn't it pretty much end the conversation?

 

I feel badly for those people who have so little faith in their own judgement that they believe that JBJ is only marginally better defensively than that AAAA player.

 

I feel badly you think I don't trust my own eyes. The eyes that see JBJ play and the yes that look at the numbers.

 

First, dWAR, when used as instructed does NOT say JBJ is marginally better than a AAAA player.

 

Second, how much do you really know about the other 29 CF'er's defense and just how good a AAAA CF'er is on defense? My guess is they may be mostly all glove no bat-type players and might be very close to JBJ on defense.

 

Third, my eyes do think JBJ is better than average, and that's where the 3 year numbers place him. If he really is better than dWAR or UZR/150 says he is, and more like where we think he is, it doesn't mean the whole dWAR and UZR/150 is trash. It might just mean they got one wrong- maybe for some of the reasons discussed here, at length.

 

I know I make a heck of a lot more mistakes than UZR/150 does, because I base my opinions on where JBJ ranks on watching 0-3 games a year for half the teams in MLB.

 

Hell, I used to think Nomar was a good fielder.

 

How many MLB fans think Jeter was a plus SS? I feel badly for them. They fell for an illusion based on a couple ESPN highlight reels.

[Slasher9]

Actually you’re the only one who calls WAR a debate ended. And if it stops you from debating, in some ways it is...

 

People on this board try and use war or dwar to prove their point about someone. It happens all the time. They just use war. Not other stats or observations. To me that screams using war as a debate ender but maybe others see it differently?

[moonslav59]

People on this board try and use war or dwar to prove their point about someone. It happens all the time. They just use war. Not other stats or observations. To me that screams using war as a debate ender but maybe others see it differently?

 

I've been told the same about my incessant use of OPS, but even though I can see how people might think I am trying to end the debate by posting OPS all the time, I never mean it to be taken that way.

 

Someone says, Betts is in a slump, and I say, "His OPS is .950 the last 14 days and .895 the last 30 days" does not mean the debate is over. It's just some numbers that support my position.

 

Someone could replay, "He's at .550 the last 10 days."

 

Someone can say, "JBJ is a below average defender, because his UZR/150 is -0.5."

 

I can say, "But, it's +9.5 over the last 3 years, and he ranks 12th out of the top 30 CF'er in that time frame."

 

The debate is never over.

 

Is the debate over when someone says, "My eyes say JBJ is a top 5 OF'er?"

 

Same thing: no.

[Bellhorn04]

People on this board try and use war or dwar to prove their point about someone. It happens all the time. They just use war. Not other stats or observations. To me that screams using war as a debate ender but maybe others see it differently?

 

With JBJ, WAR is almost always used to defend him against people who fixate on his batting average. That's a good thing, right?

[moonslav59]

Hey harmony...

 

Edgar Martinez's "The Double" in 1995 ALDS

WWW.MLB.COM

---

SEATTLE -- The defining moment of Edgar Martinez's 18-year career with the Mariners has been replayed time and again, and for good reason. “The Double,” as it’s simply known to Mariners fans, did more than put Martinez on the national map 25 years ago, on Oct. 8, 1995. Many believe

[harmony]

Hey harmony...

 

Edgar Martinez's "The Double" in 1995 ALDS

WWW.MLB.COM

---

SEATTLE -- The defining moment of Edgar Martinez's 18-year career with the Mariners has been replayed time and again, and for good reason. “The Double,” as it’s simply known to Mariners fans, did more than put Martinez on the national map 25 years ago, on Oct. 8, 1995. Many believe

Thanks.

 

The Double happened on my 40th birthday (in my first season as a Mariner fan) and gave my childhood love of baseball a second life.

 

I had to cancel plans to go to Seattle this Sunday to watch the livestream of Edgar's Hall of Fame induction on the big screen at T-Mobile Park.

[moonslav59]

Thanks.

 

The Double happened on my 40th birthday (in my first season as a Mariner fan) and gave my childhood love of baseball a second life.

 

I had to cancel plans to go to Seattle this Sunday to watch the livestream of Edgar's Hall of Fame induction on the big screen at T-Mobile Park.

 

Edgar was "the man."

[devildavid]

WAR is a single number, yes, but you can also see at a glance offensive WAR and defensive WAR and all the component numbers that make it up. It's not really just one number, end of story - not if you really do want to analyze it.

 

But the formula to calculate it also uses numbers not at all derived from player performance statistics.

[Slasher9]

With JBJ, WAR is almost always used to defend him against people who fixate on his batting average. That's a good thing, right?

 

I would prefer we all just refer to him as the best CFer in the game not having a fish name.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not this year. The numbers don’t lie and with the games I’ve seen, they back up the numbers. He’s been a minus defender this year. He looks a step slower and heck, he’s made some errors this year. His UZR/150 is -5.5. This is the first season he’s been a negative in his career.

[jad]

Laureano is a fish?

[jacksonianmarch]

Hey Kimmi, that back to back to back to... is looking a little dicey, eh?

[notin]

People on this board try and use war or dwar to prove their point about someone. It happens all the time. They just use war. Not other stats or observations. To me that screams using war as a debate ender but maybe others see it differently?

 

No. It’s used as a debate beginner in many of those instances. That no one counters is not the fault of the stat...

[notin]

I would prefer we all just refer to him as the best CFer in the game not having a fish name.

 

Why?

 

I’d take Bradley over AJ Pollock

[jacksonianmarch]

That’s less about ability and more about durability. A healthy Pollock is way better than Jackie

[Bellhorn04]

But the formula to calculate it also uses numbers not at all derived from player performance statistics.

 

As in the defensive ratings you mean?

[Bellhorn04]

Why?

 

I’d take Bradley over AJ Pollock

 

Good play.

[Bellhorn04]

That’s less about ability and more about durability. A healthy Pollock is way better than Jackie

 

- 5 points, for no sense of humor.

[oldtimer]

The Sox were humiliated by the last place team. Price was totally off hiis game and the lineup only produced 1 hit out of the top 5 batters. The team looked tired and uninspired. One may lead to the other. It was tough to watch last night. A loss like this could be shrugged off if we were otherwise doing well. but when trying to climb out of a hole, tthe message to John Henry is don't throw good money after bad.

[notin]

That’s less about ability and more about durability. A healthy Pollock is way better than Jackie

 

Strawman argument. There’s no such thing as a healthy Pollock

[Kimmi]

If I went down the list of all field players at each position and selected a team based strictly on WAR, without seeing players names or anything beyond WAR and it was numerically better than any other team competing with it, would that team be a probable winner and go well in the playoffs? I would think other aspects like team chemistry (not measureable) management decision making and other factors come into play and are quite important. WAR is a helpful number in selecting players but can't be the only factor considered.

 

A single stat should never be the only factor considered. Stats alone should never be considered without scouting reports.

 

That said, team WAR correlates very well with team wins.

[OH FOY]

Mike Mussina tells why the WAR stat is not accurate about Player evaluations. Better WAR then Nolan Ryan. Really? Jim Palmer. He's even high then Joe DiMaggio. really. Bob Gibson?

Mussina never won a World Series, who's he replacing another guy who didn't too.

My mistake on Ryan.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_pitch_career.shtml

Edited July 20, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Kimmi]

I'm the only one who's honest enough to admit it. The natural tendency is to believe something you can hang your hat on. When someone says, "I've got a six page formula that says that JBJ is only marginally better than a AAAA player and all you've got is your eyes"... what's the response to that? Doesn't it pretty much end the conversation?

 

I feel badly for those people who have so little faith in their own judgement that they believe that JBJ is only marginally better defensively than that AAAA player.

 

It's not that I don't trust my eyes. It's that I know that there are limitations to the eye test. I have no doubt that everyone here knows a good defensive play when they see it. Do you think your eyes are ever wrong? Do you think you might see things a little differently because you are biased towards or against a player? Do you know that JBJ is better than other outfielders out there? Are you forgetting about some of the plays that JBJ missed and only remembering the great plays that he made?

 

Personally, I find it a little arrogant to believe that if a stat doesn't support your opinion, then the stat must be wrong or flawed. Could it possibly be that you are wrong instead?

[Kimmi]

Hey Kimmi, that back to back to back to... is looking a little dicey, eh?

 

Haha. You are a little full of yourself these days, aren't you?

 

Yes, it's looking very dicey, but it's not over yet. As I told Harmony, prepare to be shocked!

 

Wouldn't it be great if the Sox and Yankees met in the ALDS and the Yankees got eliminated from the postseason once again?

[Kimmi]

The Sox were humiliated by the last place team. Price was totally off hiis game and the lineup only produced 1 hit out of the top 5 batters. The team looked tired and uninspired. One may lead to the other. It was tough to watch last night. A loss like this could be shrugged off if we were otherwise doing well. but when trying to climb out of a hole, tthe message to John Henry is don't throw good money after bad.

 

It was a pathetic performance on all fronts. I keep waiting for the 'rock bottom' moment, where the Sox are finally going to get pissed off at themselves and do something about it. Maybe this is it. Or not.

[jacksonianmarch]

Haha. You are a little full of yourself these days, aren't you?

 

Yes, it's looking very dicey, but it's not over yet. As I told Harmony, prepare to be shocked!

 

Wouldn't it be great if the Sox and Yankees met in the ALDS and the Yankees got eliminated from the postseason once again?

 

If the Sox find a way into the WC and then win the playin game, we will decimate them.

[dgalehouse]

Last night was as discouraging a loss as we have seen all year . They came out and laid an egg in what looked to be a sure win . Just have to forget about it and win the next two . Then comes the make or break ten days .