A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[Kimmi]

Honest question for the group. Do you feel JBJ has slipped defensively this season?

 

I wouldn't say 'slipped', as in showing signs of decline, if that's what you're implying.

 

Also, I would not put too much stock in a 1/2 season's worth of defensive data. That would be like assessing an offensive player on 3 weeks of play.

[notin]

This argument works both ways, you know. Do you know that JBJ isn't better than other outfielders out there? Have you seen all of them play? Are you able to make an objective judgement based on what you've seen?

 

I find it a little arrogant that some posters have completely bought into and defend WAR while ignoring what their eyes and logic tell them. Is it possible that Fangraphs is right when they indicate that there's a margin for error of ~16%?

 

How do you know their eyes don’t agree with WAR?

 

The definition of arrogance is “having an exaggerated sense of one’s own abilities or importance.”

 

I would think assuming one’s own eye test and assessment to be the one true answer fits that definition far, far more than reliance on objective statistical data...

[a700hitter]

LOL You are on a mission against Porcello because you've never liked him. He has stunk this year. Giving a pass to the other 3 starters is ridiculous.

 

Bias, as its finest.

It is Ridiculous to say that I am on a mission against Porcello. I recently proposed resigning him for 3/$45 million. I thought he was overpaid at $22 million/year for 4 years, because he is a 4.25 ERA Middle to bottom of the rotation pitcher. What he is going through now, he has been through before. Some years it has lasted the entire season. Last year, I think his final two months were 5+ ERA, but he was able to step up in the post season. This season he has been consistent garbage. I think he can straighten himself out and the team needs him to pitch well. I am not giving a pass to the other 3 pitchers. Each has been more consistent and far better than Porcello this season since the end of April. The argument is what the team needs — bullpen or starting pitchers. We have 2 Cy Young winners (Price and Porcello) plus Chris Sale and ERod is in the midst of his best season. We have a talented starting Corps. We don’t have a talented bullpen. They are full of minor league and borderline major league arms. The deficit in talent couldn’t be any more clear.

 

Your bias accusation is ridiculous and I will chalk it up to you having missed your morning coffee or something else that threw off your game.

[a700hitter]

"He is back..."

 

He has sucked since being back- tiny sample size not withstanding.

 

Since the two terrible outings (I think his 2nd and 3rd outings) he has given up 0 runs and 2 hits in his next 6 outings. He is back to destroying the opposing batters. He is back to being Kimbrel.

[jacksonianmarch]

I wouldn't say 'slipped', as in showing signs of decline, if that's what you're implying.

 

Also, I would not put too much stock in a 1/2 season's worth of defensive data. That would be like assessing an offensive player on 3 weeks of play.

 

I see the defensive data, but I also am noticing it with my own eyes. When both line up, the concern is usually valid. He looks a step slower. He is still getting great jumps, but he looks like he has lost some speed at the top end

[Bellhorn04]

Since the two terrible outings (I think his 2nd and 3rd outings) he has given up 0 runs and 2 hits in his next 6 outings. He is back to destroying the opposing batters. He is back to being Kimbrel.

 

The Kimbrel we saw last year had stretches of being his old dominant self, and stretches of being scary, such as in the playoffs.

[dgalehouse]

Since the two terrible outings (I think his 2nd and 3rd outings) he has given up 0 runs and 2 hits in his next 6 outings. He is back to destroying the opposing batters. He is back to being Kimbrel.

 

I would bet the farm , if I had a farm , that the Sox would be in much better shape today if they still had Kimbrel and Kelly . As I said before , our current saves leader , with a grand total of seven saves , is now pitching for Pawtucket . That is absolutely terrible . I think Kimbrel already has that many in three weeks with the Cubs .

[moonslav59]

Kimmi?

 

No. Too expensive and old.

[moonslav59]

This argument works both ways, you know. Do you know that JBJ isn't better than other outfielders out there? Have you seen all of them play? Are you able to make an objective judgement based on what you've seen?

 

I find it a little arrogant that some posters have completely bought into and defend WAR while ignoring what their eyes and logic tell them. Is it possible that Fangraphs is right when they indicate that there's a margin for error of ~16%?

 

I've seen a lot of great plays by CF'ers on many teams while watching them against the Sox. I have no idea what they do in the other 144 to 159 games. Some guys I only see every 3 years, and then only for 3 games on TV.

 

To me, JBJ looks like he's top 8 to 14. His 3 year ranking is 12th, so I have no problem thinking he's around 12th best. He may better, if you take away some intangibles but probably not top 3 or 4, IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

I would bet the farm , if I had a farm , that the Sox would be in much better shape today if they still had Kimbrel and Kelly . As I said before , our current saves leader , with a grand total of seven saves , is now pitching for Pawtucket . That is absolutely terrible . I think Kimbrel already has that many in three weeks with the Cubs .

 

And Kelly's 5.29 ERA?

[Slasher9]

Trout is in front of him but only because of offense. I wouldn’t want anyone else playing CF for the Boston Red Sox. We are lucky we have JBj and when he is gone the hole will be glaring. Glaring.

[OH FOY]

Not even Mookie if the Sox get another RF? Mookie did darn good job out there too. I feel if Mookie is still here past July 31, JBJ will be dealt, this Off -Season. Might not be right decision too. I feel Mookie is not a 30+ a year player. But that is what the Sox will have to give him to keep him.

[OH FOY]

We can go back and forth on the Positional Players, but if the Sox don't start getting some real talent in the Farm for Pitching, or Young Major League Pitchers, who can come in and contribute. Wont matter much who's playing the Outfield.

Pitching wins Championships.

[notin]

Too much alphabet soup . A good ballplayer is like a beautiful woman. You know one when you see one . You don't need a numerical rating to tell you .

 

And yet Blake Edwards still went ahead and made that movie...

[moonslav59]

In the first place, the Red Sox have not shown a cohesive team effort to get back to the big dance even one time over the first 100 games. I do not believe that a team can show you NOTHING for a 100 games and then come on in the end to get anywhere. Yes, teams can come on at the end. But if they don't show you anything for 100 games it is highly unlikely that they will pull it together to come on and really get anywhere at the end.

 

The only cohesive effort on this entire team including its coaches and management has been X and Rafi. Clearly X has assumed Pedey's old role as the leader of the infield. Having played 3rd base it is X that has had the most influence on Rafi. I don't buy the Sox PR dept BS that JD has been the most influential player on Rafi. JD has his own issues to worry about. I think Rafi has made so much progress this year for two reasons. He has taken X's leadership and advice to heart and X signing his deal has proven to Rafi that if you have talent

AND YOU STICK TO YOUR KNITTING LONG ENOUGH, you will get paid.

 

The rest of this team has been a shambles. The entire outfield is a train wreck. Not one of them backup any of the others. JBJ has made his usual quota of great plays but he has also boned up more plays than we are used to seeing and he does not back anybody up either. The MVP and RF GG has been only average out there and Beni is a joke. The entire right side of the infield is a wreck (thank you DD for the Moreland/Pearce disappearing act and that guy playing 2nd on occasion that can't really play 2nd). I await the next Holt injury which should make things oh so much better on the right side of our infield. All I can say for the catchers is that they have had their moments. But that is it. Neither has truly distinguished himself. Vaz has been better at the plate but considering the rocket ship baseball can we really call what Vaz is doing exceptional or is it just better than we expected of him at the plate. Everybody and I do mean everybody in MLB that is anything more than a pure Punch and Judy hitter is going to have 20+ HR's by season end, a ridiculous state of affairs.

 

In the second place, our pitching sucks. Our rotation which was anticipated as the strength of the team have woefully underperformed to that very reasonable expectation and they show no signs of improving enough over the remaining 60 games to be that strength we had anticipated. You can't go from Rotation projected as the strength of the team to Rotation underperforming and mystically make it up elsewhere. This is real baseball, not computer baseball nor fantasy baseball. Our BP sucks and adding Nate at the backend, a guy that might fall apart as soon as he gets there is no consolation. Nate cannot rescue an entire pitching staff underperforming and neither can our recently acquired O's starter.

 

DD sat on his hands, resigned his 2018 in season acquisition binky's and for some utterly mysterious reason extended Sale past the 2024 season at the start of this one. Henry has quite obviously said NO MAS to adding considerably to the payroll this year. I don't blame him.

 

I am at the point of being resigned to whatever their fate as the 2019 edition of the Red Sox. I can stand less of the NESN broadcast crew and OBs endless repetition of meaningless small sample size stats covering about a week of a season. "So and so leads the league in RBI from......well......last week to this one". How about calling the game OB. You think you might just call the game. I also don't like the hard left turn the broadcast crews have made regarding the rocket ship baseball. They have suddenly gone silent or in outright denial about where all these power numbers are coming from having established a pretty realistic position on the topic earlier in the year. Of course NESN is ......a Fenway Group property so I thought their realistic analysis during the first half of the year was the shocker, not their current head in the sand, denial position.

 

Where the Sox end up is where the Sox end up. But for my money in spite of over 60 years of Sox fandom, if there are not 5 other teams more deserving of a post season spot including the WC play in game, it is simply indicative of what a mess MLB has become and that concerns me more than whether or not the Sox make it to the final five only to get bounced out either in the play in game or in the first round.

 

I don't think you can be 9 games over .500 and have "shown nothing." We have a top 2 or 3 offense, for one. Our rotation did go 4-5 weeks pitching very well. Our pen did okay for the first 2 months. Our defense has improved at 3B.

 

Look, I agree, we have yet to "put it all together" for any meaningful stretch, but there is still 2+ months to go. I know it is hard to ignore a 99 game sample size, and I'm not. We do have serious issues. We have some in-house options like Eovaldi and long shot Johnson that may solve 2 issues. Moreland's return could help, too. A trade for a solid RP'er could also help. Adding 4 players to a team already 9 over .500 can make a difference. I'm not saying it will. I'm not saying I have any hard evidence, other than this is close to the same team as 2018, to say we are likely to be a top contender by October, but it is possible.

 

I know it wasn't you saying it, but even last year some posters were very pessimistic about our chances vs Houston in the playoffs. That was after winning 108 games. Houston "had a better rotation." Houston has a "better pythagorean record."

 

We came close in 2003, despite going 60-49 for 4 months in a row (.550 winning % that is very close to the one we have now). That team went 17-9 in September and 7-3 to end August. They were 72-55 on August 20th, which is much better than our record is now, but I seriously doubt many Sox fans had hope as late as August31st after we just lost 2 of 3 to the Yanks and were 5.5 out.

 

In 2004, we had a stretch where we went 43-43 from May 1st to Aug 6th. That's a very long stretch of worse baseball than we have played in our first 99 games. The sample size is almost the same. If I add 13 games on the end of that stretch to equal 99 games, they were 7 games over .500- worse than this year's stretch. There was not much hope that year, either, but we finished the season 40-15, and the rest is history.

 

We won the division in 2007, mostly on the strength of our great start (36-15). We went 60-51 the last 4 months of the season, including a 54-48 stretch (worse record than this year for a longer stretch).

 

Nobody expected a ring in 2013 from day one. We had a shorter stretch of pretty bad play by going 48-38 in one 86 game stretch- better than this year, but not by much.

 

All those championship teams, except for last year, looked pretty bad for very long stretches.

 

Let me say one more thing about our team, we've made the playoffs 9 times since 2004. We've won it all in 4 of them- once as a wild card entry. That's pretty amazing, and it speaks to our ability to step it up when it counts most. I realize those were different teams, but 2018 was not.

Edited July 21, 2019 by moonslav59

[OH FOY]

Curious to see how Darwinzon Hernandez does against TB, and the Yanks next 2 weeks. This might be possibly the key to Sox hopes if Eovaldi does good as a Closer.

They must have spotted something, he's not walking anybody. If he does this he has the Arm to be dominating.

[dgalehouse]

And yet Blake Edwards still went ahead and made that movie...

 

Bo Derek was the Mookie Betts of pulchritude

[moonslav59]

Honest question for the group. Do you feel JBJ has slipped defensively this season?

 

Yes, noticeably.

[moonslav59]

Since the two terrible outings (I think his 2nd and 3rd outings) he has given up 0 runs and 2 hits in his next 6 outings. He is back to destroying the opposing batters. He is back to being Kimbrel.

 

Not really. He's only allowed 5 BBs and 1 hit in those 6 IP. The Kimbrel I know would have loaded the bases a couple times before K'ing the side.

 

LOL

[moonslav59]

I don't know that JBJ isn't better or worse than other outfielders, that's why I use the stats. How is it arrogant to defend WAR? I am willing to admit that something else might be right over my own opinion, and that I am probably wrong.

 

Good point. It is the opposite of arrogance.

[dgalehouse]

And Kelly's 5.29 ERA?

 

Hard to say . I think Kelly would have done better than that . I think he has been improving recently . He still has a great arm . To me , the bottom line is this : We won three straight A.L. East titles . We lost Kimbrel and Kelly . D.D. needed to do something about the pen . D.D. did nothing The bullpen is a mess. We are now scrambling for a wild card spot . Making Eovaldi the closer is the first , positive move to fix things . Let's hope it works .

[a700hitter]

Not really. He's only allowed 5 BBs and 1 hit in those 6 IP. The Kimbrel I know would have loaded the bases a couple times before K'ing the side.

 

LOL

He’s a nice weapon for Madden, not a cause for concern. Right now he is on one of his scoreless game streaks.

[moonslav59]

Hard to say . I think Kelly would have done better than that . I think he has been improving recently . He still has a great arm . To me , the bottom line is this : We won three straight A.L. East titles . We lost Kimbrel and Kelly . D.D. needed to do something about the pen . D.D. did nothing The bullpen is a mess. We are now scrambling for a wild card spot . Making Eovaldi the closer is the first , positive move to fix things . Let's hope it works .

 

Kelly has improved.

 

1.98 ERA in his last 13.2 IP (7 BB 19 K)

 

But...

 

5.40 in his last 3.1 IP

 

I'd rather have Workman, but your point is spot on. DD neglected the pen for too long.

 

[dgalehouse]

Not really. He's only allowed 5 BBs and 1 hit in those 6 IP. The Kimbrel I know would have loaded the bases a couple times before K'ing the side.

 

LOL

His fastball and curve both move a lot . There will always be some walks . But if you look at his career opponents batting average , on base percentage and career WHIP , it indicates that he really doesn't have as many base runners as you may think .

[moonslav59]

His fastball and curve both move a lot . There will always be some walks . But if you look at his career opponents batting average , on base percentage and career WHIP , it indicates that he really doesn't have as many base runners as you may think .

 

Yes, I was speaking more to the Kimbrel of 2018, especially the playoffs.

 

He had off the charts numbers with ATL and in BOS in 2017. His o.995 WHIP in 2018 was very good and only slightly over his career 0.929 mark.

 

It's always been the BBs. His career H/9 is an amazing 4.8- almost 1 every 2 innings! His BB/9 is 3.5, but was 5.1, 1.8 and 4.5 in his 3 years with BOS.

 

His playoff WHIP is 1.258 which is fed by a 5.2 BB/9 rate. His last 4 playoff series with the Sox, it was:

2.500

1.714

2.000

1.154

(In 12.2 IP: 8 ERs, 9 BB, 13 H, 2 WPs, & 2 HRs)

[notin]

Kelly has improved.

 

1.98 ERA in his last 13.2 IP (7 BB 19 K)

 

But...

 

5.40 in his last 3.1 IP

 

I'd rather have Workman, but your point is spot on. DD neglected the pen for too long.

 

 

Still doing it IMO.

 

I mean, is he really fixing the pen with Eovaldi or salvaging his big free agent rather than have him miss one quarter of his deal?

[S5Dewey]

I don't know that JBJ isn't better or worse than other outfielders, that's why I use the stats. How is it arrogant to defend WAR? I am willing to admit that something else might be right over my own opinion, and that I am probably wrong.

 

What do you think the margin of error for your eyes is?

 

If the stats support your opinion, then you say, I already knew that and don't need stats to tell me what I already knew. If the stats don't support your opinion, then the stat must be flawed or useless.

 

I asked the question before and got crickets. Have you ever changed your opinion on something based on what the analytics told you? No, because you think your opinion can't possibly be wrong. But maybe, just maybe, you are wrong. The eyes will lie.

 

I have no problem with oWAR. It's dWAR I have an issue with. Unfortunately dWAR bleeds over into WAR. oWAR deals in reality. Numbers. percentages. dWAR deals with someone else's perception of what a player does. When I see a dWAR value that says that JBJ's only .2 WAR better than this mythical "replacement player" (as BR's dWAR does) I'm going to challenge the formula that created the value. Maybe, just maybe, dWAR is wrong.

[moonslav59]

I have no problem with oWAR. It's dWAR I have an issue with. Unfortunately dWAR bleeds over into WAR. oWAR deals in reality. Numbers. percentages. dWAR deals with someone else's perception of what a player does. When I see a dWAR value that says that JBJ's only .2 WAR better than this mythical "replacement player" (as BR's dWAR does) I'm going to challenge the formula that created the value. Maybe, just maybe, dWAR is wrong.

 

Yes, but maybe the other 29 CF'ers are better than we think they are.

[S5Dewey]

Yes, but maybe the other 29 CF'ers are better than we think they are.

 

I'm not comparing them to the other 29 CF'ers. Like WAR does, I'm comparing him to the AAAA player.

[moonslav59]

I'm not comparing them to the other 29 CF'ers. Like WAR does, I'm comparing him to the AAAA player.

 

What makes you think the difference, especially on defense between the #30 CF'er and a AAAA player is all that much?

 

IMO, there are probably 15 CF'ers in AAA that are better defensively than the bottom 5 MLB CF'ers on D.