A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[devildavid]

As in the defensive ratings you mean?

 

In all calculations of WAR. You can't calculate it without using made up replacement level numbers.

[Bellhorn04]

In all calculations of WAR. You can't calculate it without using made up replacement level numbers.

 

Is that really a big deal?

 

As Slasher has pointed out, 'WAA' or Wins Above Average is also calculated. So if you prefer that, it's there.

 

WAR seems to average about 2 more than WAA for a position player for a 150 game season. But it does vary.

[devildavid]

Is that really a big deal?

 

As Slasher has pointed out, 'WAA' or Wins Above Average is also calculated. So if you prefer that, it's there.

 

WAR seems to average about 2 more than WAA for a position player for a 150 game season. But it does vary.

 

Whether or not it is a big deal is irrelevant. It is using numbers that have nothing to do with a players performance generated numbers. It is a made up number. Also, assigning win numbers to individual players is questionable. Teams win and lose as teams that employ team strategies and plans and styles of play.

[mvp 78]

Whether or not it is a big deal is irrelevant. It is using numbers that have nothing to do with a players performance generated numbers. It is a made up number. Also, assigning win numbers to individual players is questionable. Teams win and lose as teams that employ team strategies and plans and styles of play.

 

Other made up numbers: wins, saves, blown saves, RBI, et al

[Bellhorn04]

Also, assigning win numbers to individual players is questionable. Teams win and lose as teams that employ team strategies and plans and styles of play.

 

OK, just use RAR then, if the W is an issue.

[dgalehouse]

Too much alphabet soup . A good ballplayer is like a beautiful woman. You know one when you see one . You don't need a numerical rating to tell you .

[Bellhorn04]

Too much alphabet soup . A good ballplayer is like a beautiful woman. You know one when you see one . You don't need a numerical rating to tell you .

 

Major league players are all good players.

[dgalehouse]

Major league players are all good players.

 

Okay . And all women are beautiful in their way . Let's say " outstanding " instead of " good."

[moonslav59]

Whether or not it is a big deal is irrelevant. It is using numbers that have nothing to do with a players performance generated numbers. It is a made up number. Also, assigning win numbers to individual players is questionable. Teams win and lose as teams that employ team strategies and plans and styles of play.

 

Yes, teams win or lose, but for decades and decades fans have argued about which players are more helpful in getting their teams to win vs other players. They've used a long list of stats to try and prove their points while the other guys uses a long list of different stats to try and prove his point. Many times it boiled down to which stats one guy felt were more important than the others. That didn't even include the personal observation aspects to the debates.

 

It's not like that system was fool- proofed.

 

WAR is not fool-proofed either, but it does try to scientifically weigh which stats are more important in creating wins than others and weighs them accordingly. It spits out a single, imperfect number that becomes part of the debate but should never be a debate ender.

[Bellhorn04]

 

Okay . And all women are beautiful in their way . Let's say " outstanding " instead of " good."

 

Even outstanding is pretty vague.

 

In the old days we looked in the paper to see the top 10 in batting average, RBI etc.

 

Now we can see who the top 10 in OPS and WAR are too - if you want.

 

It's not really that big of deal.

[moonslav59]

Even outstanding is pretty vague.

 

In the old days we looked in the paper to see the top 10 in batting average, RBI etc.

 

Now we can see who the top 10 in OPS and WAR are too - if you want.

 

It's not really that big of deal.

 

Is that stuff even listed in the papers anymore?

[dgalehouse]

Even outstanding is pretty vague.

 

In the old days we looked in the paper to see the top 10 in batting average, RBI etc.

 

Now we can see who the top 10 in OPS and WAR are too - if you want.

 

It's not really that big of deal.

 

Bell , I still look in the paper to see the top 10 in batting average , homers , RBIs ,etc . I can't change . What can you do ? I'm set in my ways .

[dgalehouse]

That's the trouble with the analytics people . They think everyone is , or should be , into all of that . Many fans simply are not . Out in the bleachers , they know the batting averages , home runs , etc . They are not interested in the wOBA , xUZR and that kind of stuff. Baseball does not have to be complicated to be enjoyable .

[Bellhorn04]

That's the trouble with the analytics people . They think everyone is , or should be , into all of that . Many fans simply are not . Out in the bleachers , they know the batting averages , home runs , etc . They are not interested in the wOBA , xUZR and that kind of stuff. Baseball does not have to be complicated to be enjoyable .

 

And some new stats shouldn't affect anyone's enjoyment. Old school folks can just ignore them.

[moonslav59]

That's the trouble with the analytics people . They think everyone is , or should be , into all of that . Many fans simply are not . Out in the bleachers , they know the batting averages , home runs , etc . They are not interested in the wOBA , xUZR and that kind of stuff. Baseball does not have to be complicated to be enjoyable .

 

Nothing could be farther from the truth.

 

I love the simplicity of baseball. I love the intangibles in the game. I also love analyzing different aspects of the game and never feel like or expect others to see or enjoy the game the same way I do.

 

I have OCD tendencies and wouldn't wish that on anyone.

[dgalehouse]

And some new stats shouldn't affect anyone's enjoyment. Old school folks can just ignore them.

 

Yup . That's fair enough. Many people ignore us old school folks too .

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

How underachieving has JD been so far this season? Here's some stats that might magnify this.

 

Betts leads off and is hitting .284 with 72 BB's.

Devers is batting 2nd and is hitting .322.

X-man is batting 3rd and is hitting .311.

JD is batting clean-up and has 49 RBI.

 

That low number of RBI, my friends, is disgusting.

Edited July 20, 2019 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

How underachieving has JD been so far this season? Here's some stats that might magnify this.

 

Betts leads off and is hitting .284 with 72 BB's.

Devers is batting 2nd and is hitting .322.

X-man is batting 3rd and is hitting .311.

JD is batting clean-up and has 49 RBI.

 

That low number of RBI, my friends, is disgusting.

 

With RISP Beni is hitting .342. With RISP JD is hitting .275.

 

With Beni being the whipping boy this season, I thought this comparison was eye opening.

[vegasbob]

With RISP Beni is hitting .342. With RISP JD is hitting .275.

 

With Beni being the whipping boy this season, I thought this comparison was eye opening.

 

Unless JDM makes some sort of a big run in August/September , which would be welcome, I think he will not opt out of 2020 contract and be back in Boston, for better or worse. No other team would pay him a big premium off this season to date. I think we have JD Dh'ing next year. Hopefully he stays the hell out of RF.

[moonslav59]

With RISP Beni is hitting .342. With RISP JD is hitting .275.

 

With Beni being the whipping boy this season, I thought this comparison was eye opening.

 

What's also eye-opening is that we're only talking about 91 PA for Beni and 113 PAs for JD with RISP, and that your numbers neglect to point out that JD is being walked in 17% of those PAs.

 

OBP with RISP

.398 JD

.342 Beni

 

No doubt, JD should have more RBIs, but the OBP of the guys in front of him are not great.

 

OBP by batting slot:

2019

1. .362

2. .391

3. .341 (including JD's .354 in about a third of the PAs at this slot, so much lower when he bats 4th.)

 

2018:

1. .418

2. .340

3. .353 (.379 by JD in almost half the PAs of this slot)

 

[vegasbob]

Some of our guys will speculate that any favorable stat attributed to Beni is a product of NESN and the Red Sox PR department bearing no resemblance to action on the field.

[moonslav59]

Unless JDM makes some sort of a big run in August/September , which would be welcome, I think he will not opt out of 2020 contract and be back in Boston, for better or worse. No other team would pay him a big premium off this season to date. I think we have JD Dh'ing next year. Hopefully he stays the hell out of RF.

 

Nobody will pay him more, even if he is red hot from here on out.

 

He's not an OF'er anymore. Last night proved that.

 

Look what Big Papi got paid not too long ago, and he played 1B about as well as JD plays corner OF.

 

I'd think sewriously about trading JD and re-setting the tax.

Edited July 20, 2019 by moonslav59

[vegasbob]

Nobody will pay him more, even i[f he is red hot from here on out.

 

He's not an OF'er anymore. Last night proved that.

 

Look what Big Papi got paid not too long ago, and he played 1B about as well as JD plays corner OF.

 

I'd think sewriously about trading JD and re-setting the tax.

 

Due to his contractual options only 3 or 4 current AL contenders would give much for JDM. I would say Twins, Guardians, Oakland and maybe Texas at 1:100 chance. These are all teams competing with Boston for the WC, along with the Rays. It would be ultimate irony to move JD to a team who then beats you out of the #2 WC on September 30 by a game. I don't think he's moving. And Mookie is getting hot, so he's not going yet. Calling Mr. Benintendi

[moonslav59]

Due to his contractual options only 3 or 4 current AL contenders would give much for JDM. I would say Twins, Guardians, Oakland and maybe Texas at 1:100 chance. These are all teams competing with Boston for the WC, along with the Rays. It would be ultimate irony to move JD to a team who then beats you out of the #2 WC on September 30 by a game. I don't think he's moving. And Mookie is getting hot, so he's not going yet. Calling Mr. Benintendi

 

Trading him would not be about the return. It would be about the reset.

 

Any return would be gravy. We might even have to pay part of his salary to get any return at all.

[moonslav59]

What if we kept...?

 

6.10 Pomeranz 72.1 IP 88 H (17 HRs) 35 BB 84 K

5.87 Kimbrel 7.2 IP 6 H (2 HRs) 5 BB 12 K

5.29 J Kelly 34 IP 38 H (4 HRs) 15 BB 42 K

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Yup . That's fair enough. Many people ignore us old school folks too .

 

I never ignore ya Denny. I like your posts.

[Slasher9]

#FatBeni

[a700hitter]

What if we kept...?

 

6.10 Pomeranz 72.1 IP 88 H (17 HRs) 35 BB 84 K

5.87 Kimbrel 7.2 IP 6 H (2 HRs) 5 BB 12 K

5.29 J Kelly 34 IP 38 H (4 HRs) 15 BB 42 K

 

 

 

Kimbrel had some rust missing half the year, but he is back to destroying hitters.

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel had some rust missing half the year, but he is back to destroying hitters.

 

"Is" or will be?

[a700hitter]

"Is" or will be?

What did I say?