A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[a700hitter]

Guys, I am not sure how you can watch all of the sox games and come away with JBJ being a positive defender this year. He has not been great. The position has gotten better across the league on defense and JBJ has looked old this year

LOL! Good trolling material.

[moonslav59]

I think JBJ was better at defense when I saw him in Portland back in 2012 than he is now.

 

Just my opinion.

[dgalehouse]

I think JBJ was better at defense when I saw him in Portland back in 2012 than he is now.

 

Just my opinion.

I think we were all better in 2012 than we are now . That's how it goes .

[moonslav59]

I think we were all better in 2012 than we are now . That's how it goes .

 

Yes, and JBJ was AAAA back then and better than many CF'ers on defense back in 2012.

[moonslav59]

Next 14 games:

 

@TBR ERod

@TBR Sale

@TBR Price

NYY Porcello

NYY Cashner

NYY ERod

NYY Sale

TBR Price (Trade deadline before next game)

TBR Porcello

TBR Casner

@NYY ERod

@NYY Sale/ @NYY Johnson ?

@NYY Price

 

6 of our 8 games before the trade deadline are with ERod, Sale & Price.

 

It's now or never.

[notin]

Which is still not as made up as assigning wins and saves.

 

Not really.

 

Don’t forget the Complete Game used to be very, very commonplace. When only one guy pitched and you won the game, the assignment of a win stat was a lot less arbitrary.

 

Completely agree on saves, in all their variations...

[notin]

Agree . There are little flaws in stats and almost everything in life . That doesn't discount the value very much . Most RBIs are just that . A player who consistently gets a lot of them is doing a good job.

 

But those little flaws in advanced metrics are ruining the game somehow

[S5Dewey]

It's occurred to me as we dispute the value of WAR that the value of the very benchmark of WAR, the "Replacement Player", is determined by using.... wait for it... WAR!

 

While it would seem logical to use the same formula for creating the benchmark as for rating players at the same time it guarantees the possibility of GIGO (Garbage in Garbage Out).

[OH FOY]

In his book "My Turn at Bat" Ted Williams wanted the 10 years 100 rbi's in a row more then anything, just missed it too, injury. Wonder why he felt this way? Edited July 22, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

In his book "My Turn at Bat" Ted Williams wanted the 10 years 100 rbi's in a row more then anything, just missed it too, injury. Wonder why he felt this way?

 

Ted Williams is very a good name drop onthe subject of hitting. And the idea of knocking in lots of runs a absolutely helps your team.

 

But no one really showed the flaw in RBIs than Joe Carter. His one year in San Diego, he batted .232/.290/.391 (.681 OPS) and drive in 115 runs.

 

He did hit .268 with RISP, which was a step over his awful average. But the big reason he had so many RBIs was he batted fourth most of the time that year and the 2 hitters in front of him were Roberto Alomar (.380 OBP) and Tony Gwynn (.415 OBP). Not everyone gets to hit behind two Hall of Famers.

 

In fact, most sluggers drive in themself more than any other individual teammate. With 24 home runs, Carter drive in himself as his third most frequent scorer on an RBI, behind Gwynn and Alomar. In fact he drove in Gwynn and Alomar a total of 62 times, which accounts for over 50% of his RBIs. Carter came up with 542 runners on base that year and drove in 16.7% of them, which is good, but not great. (Most middle order bats drive in 15-18% of the runners on base.). The average hitter that year came up with 429 men on base. Had Carter seen a league average amount of base runners, he would have had 96 RBI. Still a good season, but it drops him from 3rd to 9th in the NL that year...

Edited July 22, 2019 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

In his book "My Turn at Bat" Ted Williams wanted the 10 years 100 rbi's in a row more then anything, just missed it too, injury. Wonder why he felt this way?

 

Because Ted was, alas, a little too focused on his personal achievements, and certain achievements were more highly regarded back then. Like that game-winning home run in the All-Star Game that he always regarded as one of the great moments of his career.

[Bellhorn04]

There is a new wave of folks who want to revolutionize the way you look at baseball . That is where you get things like UZR and dWAR . The old , traditional stats are not only discarded , they are ridiculed. Your " eye test " is meaningless compared to the " eye test " of Jimmy Schmegge , an unemployed, recent college grad who makes a few bucks by staying up all night and ( allegedly ) watching every pitch of every game . Jimmy couldn't judge a fly ball if it was headed for his face .

 

Denny, you seem to divide people into two classes, the ones who are good and the jabronis.

 

It keeps things simple, that's for sure!

[Elktonnick]

Because Ted was, alas, a little too focused on his personal achievements, and certain achievements were more highly regarded back then. Like that game-winning home run in the All-Star Game that he always regarded as one of the great moments of his career.

 

The All Star game back then was a more important event to the players than it is today. The players generally stayed within the same leagues their entire careers and there was no interleague play except during the world series. The All Star game was really the only way to measure the relative strengths of the two leagues which by the way had totally separate umpire corps. The American League umpires wore the big balloon chest protectors. The rivalry between the leagues and their players were quite strong back then. It is no wonder that Williams would think as he did.

[SoxnCycles]

There is a new wave of folks who want to revolutionize the way you look at baseball . That is where you get things like UZR and dWAR . The old , traditional stats are not only discarded , they are ridiculed. Your " eye test " is meaningless compared to the " eye test " of Jimmy Schmegge , an unemployed, recent college grad who makes a few bucks by staying up all night and ( allegedly ) watching every pitch of every game . Jimmy couldn't judge a fly ball if it was headed for his face .

 

No, they revolutionize the way some people look at the game.

No one is forcing you to do the same.

And just because the analysts don't agree with you, it doesn't make them incompetent.

If it makes you feel better to think that way, be prepared to not be taken seriously.

[TylerD]

Next 14 games:

 

@TBR ERod

@TBR Sale

@TBR Price

NYY Porcello

NYY Cashner

NYY ERod

NYY Sale

TBR Price (Trade deadline before next game)

TBR Porcello

TBR Casner

@NYY ERod

@NYY Sale/ @NYY Johnson ?

@NYY Price

 

6 of our 8 games before the trade deadline are with ERod, Sale & Price.

 

It's now or never.

 

Been saying for weeks now that this is the most important stretch of baseball for us this season. Lose these series, pack your bags and start selling...... Losing to Baltimore like that however gave me no confidence that we have a chance.... This season is dwindling for me.

[OH FOY]

Any stat that has the word Runs in it is important. You play to score more then your Opponent, and hold them to less runs.

Pretty simple game that way.

You get 1 hit in a game in 5 at bats and it wins the game or gets you the lead, to win it take it every time.

Carter a career .271 BA with RISP, and a .258 BA with 2 outs and RISP, wasn't that bad. Reason why he probably drove in runs.

His career BA is .259. Tells me he hit better in the Clutch. Ask Mitch Williams.

Edited July 22, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Maxbialystock]

Ted Williams was right about the All-Star Game. It should have been a joy to play in because it was the best against the best, especially the central confrontation between pitcher and batter. The home run contest is of course total BS because it's just a step above T ball. But seeing the best players in the country, probably the world, out there on the field together can only be good. This is only helped by the fact that pitchers will in fact want to get hitters out, and hitters will in fact want to get hits, maybe even dingers--against the best.

[notin]

There is a new wave of folks who want to revolutionize the way you look at baseball . That is where you get things like UZR and dWAR . The old , traditional stats are not only discarded , they are ridiculed. Your " eye test " is meaningless compared to the " eye test " of Jimmy Schmegge , an unemployed, recent college grad who makes a few bucks by staying up all night and ( allegedly ) watching every pitch of every game . Jimmy couldn't judge a fly ball if it was headed for his face .

 

Your consistent rants do make you sound like a cranky old-timer who hates anything new.

 

“What’s with these new-fangled microwave ovens?!? In my day, we didn’t cook with magic!! We set our food on fire and burned it into a little lump of coal ! And we liked it! And sometimes that lump of coal ripped up our throats! But we didn’t use any of your fancy pants penny sillen! We went to the barber because we were MEN and he had a razor and he cut out that lump!! And if we were still sick, we didn’t take none of that fact new meddy sin!! We took an axe and cut a hole in our skulls to let the evil spirits escape! Because that’s what men do! Then we died by 25 like MEN!! And we LIKED IT!!”

[harmony]

There is a new wave of folks who want to revolutionize the way you look at baseball . That is where you get things like UZR and dWAR . The old , traditional stats are not only discarded , they are ridiculed. Your " eye test " is meaningless compared to the " eye test " of Jimmy Schmegge , an unemployed, recent college grad who makes a few bucks by staying up all night and ( allegedly ) watching every pitch of every game . Jimmy couldn't judge a fly ball if it was headed for his face .

This post ridicules science.

 

Art and science can co-exist ... and in fact complement each other.

[notin]

Any stat that has the word Runs in it is important. You play to score more then your Opponent, and hold them to less runs.

Pretty simple game that way.

You get 1 hit in a game in 5 at bats and it wins the game or gets you the lead, to win it take it every time.

Carter a career .271 BA with RISP, and a .258 BA with 2 outs and RISP, wasn't that bad. Reason why he probably drove in runs.

His career BA is .259. Tells me he hit better in the Clutch. Ask Mitch Williams.

 

This is just an example of magnifying very small differences. The difference between hitting .259 and .271 is roughly 1 hit in 100 at bats...

[Maxbialystock]

This is just an example of magnifying very small differences. The difference between hitting .259 and .271 is roughly 1 hit in 100 at bats...

 

In Bull Durham Crash says the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is one hit per week, and that's true if you assume 25 weeks and 500 at bats, which is pretty close to actuality in MLB today.

[notin]

In Bull Durham Crash says the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is one hit per week, and that's true if you assume 25 weeks and 500 at bats, which is pretty close to actuality in MLB today.

 

And he was making a point about magnifying very small differences. In that speech, he specifically talked about lucky hits - “one blooper, one quark, one ‘grounder with eyes’ - get one of those per week” and it’s the difference between AAA ignominy and Yankee Stadium.

 

A bit melodramatic, but he was mathematically correct....

[Bellhorn04]

And he was making a point about magnifying very small differences. In that speech, he specifically talked about lucky hits - “one blooper, one quark, one ‘grounder with eyes’ - get one of those per week” and it’s the difference between AAA ignominy and Yankee Stadium.

 

A bit melodramatic, but he was mathematically correct....

 

But if Kimmi and Alex Speier were there, they would have given him a talk about randomness, BABip and how luck tends to even out as the samples get large enough.

[notin]

But if Kimmi and Alex Speier were there, they would have given him a talk about randomness, BABip and how luck tends to even out as the samples get large enough.

 

It was essentially what he was saying, but sabermetric often fail to inspire the necessary level of drama...

[dgalehouse]

Your consistent rants do make you sound like a cranky old-timer who hates anything new.

 

“What’s with these new-fangled microwave ovens?!? In my day, we didn’t cook with magic!! We set our food on fire and burned it into a little lump of coal ! And we liked it! And sometimes that lump of coal ripped up our throats! But we didn’t use any of your fancy pants penny sillen! We went to the barber because we were MEN and he had a razor and he cut out that lump!! And if we were still sick, we didn’t take none of that fact new meddy sin!! We took an axe and cut a hole in our skulls to let the evil spirits escape! Because that’s what men do! Then we died by 25 like MEN!! And we LIKED IT!!”

 

Well , I can't help it . All those damn kids running on my lawn all the time gets me upset.

[S5Dewey]

.

If it makes you feel better to think that way, be prepared to not be taken seriously...

 

...but only by those people who do look at the game through analysts and statistics.

[S5Dewey]

But if Kimmi and Alex Speier were there, they would have given him a talk about randomness, BABip and how luck tends to even out as the samples get large enough.

 

I wish I'd said that. ^^^ :D

[Slasher9]

pretty sure analytics say that this pitch is inaccurate and impossible to be thrown....

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/07/oliver-drake-rays-pitcher-lefty-slider-right-hand-pitch-video-mlb

[S5Dewey]

pretty sure analytics say that this pitch is inaccurate and impossible to be thrown....

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/07/oliver-drake-rays-pitcher-lefty-slider-right-hand-pitch-video-mlb

 

I see no problem here. If the analytics say it can't happen then it didn't. Your eyes are lying to you.

[Bellhorn04]

pretty sure analytics say that this pitch is inaccurate and impossible to be thrown....

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/07/oliver-drake-rays-pitcher-lefty-slider-right-hand-pitch-video-mlb

 

It used to be called a screwball.