A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

No doubt the profits are enormous. The owners are doing very well . They can afford it .

 

They can afford it.

 

But a lot of the contracts do turn into albatrosses.

 

It's not much fun paying piles of money to guys like Sandoval and Castillo to play in San Fran or Pawtucket.

 

So you can understand some hesitation in just signing these things like they're car rental agreements.

[moonslav59]

No doubt the profits are enormous. The owners are doing very well . They can afford it .

 

Yes, and the owners of General Electric can afford to give big raises to their workers, but the don't.

 

It's all about maximizing profits. Why should owner pay more or lower ticket prices, wen they don't have to and can make more by not doing so?

 

[dgalehouse]

Yes, and the owners of General Electric can afford to give big raises to their workers, but the don't.

 

It's all about maximizing profits. Why should owner pay more or lower ticket prices, wen they don't have to and can make more by not doing so?

 

 

Obviously, some owners are better / worse than others . The revenue sharing rewards the cheapest of the cheap. They continue to make money even though the fans are disgusted with the product and the park is almost empty .

[Slasher9]

Yes, and the owners of General Electric can afford to give big raises to their workers, but the don't.

 

It's all about maximizing profits. Why should owner pay more or lower ticket prices, wen they don't have to and can make more by not doing so?

 

 

JH will make more money selling #50 jerseys over the next 30 years. people still buy 9, 34, 8.....

the data analysts/accountants will tell him to the penny exactly how much before the contract turns into a loss. that will be the final number offered to mookie. and it will be ~ 10 years / $345MM

[dgalehouse]

JH will make more money selling #50 jerseys over the next 30 years. people still buy 9, 34, 8.....

the data analysts/accountants will tell him to the penny exactly how much before the contract turns into a loss. that will be the final number offered to mookie. and it will be ~ 10 years / $345MM

 

At the ballpark, you see so many fans wearing player's jerseys . And the expensive ones , not the tee shirts. Very lucrative business.

[notin]

JH will make more money selling #50 jerseys over the next 30 years. people still buy 9, 34, 8.....

the data analysts/accountants will tell him to the penny exactly how much before the contract turns into a loss. that will be the final number offered to mookie. and it will be ~ 10 years / $345MM

 

Way back when Jason Giambi signed his deal with the Yankees for 7 years $120 million, Rosenthal wrote about a study two New York econmists did to determine how much he was worth to the Yankees, and they concluded he would be worth roughly $50 per season in all the revenue gains.

 

Now in this case, it didn't pan out for reasons related to steroids and Grandy Jury testimony and public "confessions", but the point is the value of marquee players to their teams...

[harmony]

Way back when Jason Giambi signed his deal with the Yankees for 7 years $120 million, Rosenthal wrote about a study two New York econmists did to determine how much he was worth to the Yankees, and they concluded he would be worth roughly $50 per season in all the revenue gains.

 

Now in this case, it didn't pan out for reasons related to steroids and Grandy Jury testimony and public "confessions", but the point is the value of marquee players to their teams...

Only fifty bucks?

[OH FOY]

I'm all for signing Free Agents, if in the meantime your using that time to develop in the Minors. Otherwise your just going around in a circle. The time JBJ and Mookie have been up, there has been no developing at those positions to be prepared for them to move and get paid. Smart teams do this, they have some kind of leverage, where they could have even moved one this past Trade Deadline, to even improve your Farm more. Idiots can spend, the smart ones develop and evaluate good.

[Bellhorn04]

Only fifty bucks?

 

harmony stepping up with the humor!

[Slasher9]

harmony stepping up with the humor!

 

or not.

[notin]

Only fifty bucks?

 

I might have left out the word "million" for their original estimate. But after the steroid scandal, $50 seems about right...

[moonslav59]

I was wondering if they forgot the negative sign.

[harmony]

harmony stepping up with the humor!

I would poke fun only at one of the forum's most respected posters (whose fine humor I could never match).

[jung]

I was wondering if they forgot the negative sign.

 

lol...I am rightfully criticized for digging right down the cynicism hole. But we are well down the sarcastic hole on this topic.

[jacksonianmarch]

Mookie will get an 8 year deal for over $30 mil per if he prioritized top overall dollar. He might do better with AAV going shorter term with vesting options or opt outs.

 

Harper was offered a 3 yr deal for $40 mil per and turned it down. I wonder if Mookie goes for an 8-$240 mil contract with $120 mil coming the first three seasons and an opt out after that. Mookie seems to want top dollar. He’ll have his choice of top AAV or top overall take home

[moonslav59]

Here's an interesting comp between 2018 and 2019.

 

Players with 250+ PAs and the top ranked in ISO.

 

2019 has the top 8 with 6 guys over .344! Last year's leader, Max Muncy, was at .319.

 

9 out of top 10 were from 2019.

14 of the top 20.

22 of 30.

29 of 40.

38 out of 50 (76%).

 

However, look at the Sox comps:

 

.299 JD 2018

.294 Betts 2018

.271 JD 2019

.267 Bogey 2019

.259 Devers 2019

.234 Bogey 2018

.218 Betts 2019

.195 Vaz 2019

.193 Devers 2018

 

Team:

.185 2018 (19th in MLB from 2018-2019: 2 years x 30 teams=60 samples)

.205 2019 (5th in MLB from 2018-2019)

 

 

 

 

 

[Nick]

Does anyone know precisely how the revenues are split between teams for each round of playoffs? Home gate, TV, etc?

 

I remember reading an article few years ago about the Yankees not making the playoffs and how much impact it had on Yankees' bottom line. The jest of the article was Yankees can afford to have higher payroll if making the playoffs became the norm. I think they has missed the playoffs for couple of years at the time of the article.

Edited September 5, 2019 by Nick

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s better financially for baseball when the Sox, Yanks and Dodgers make the playoffs

[oldtimer]

Here's an interesting comp between 2018 and 2019.

 

Players with 250+ PAs and the top ranked in ISO.

 

2019 has the top 8 with 6 guys over .344! Last year's leader, Max Muncy, was at .319.

 

9 out of top 10 were from 2019.

14 of the top 20.

22 of 30.

29 of 40.

38 out of 50 (76%).

 

However, look at the Sox comps:

 

.299 JD 2018

.294 Betts 2018

.271 JD 2019

.267 Bogey 2019

.259 Devers 2019

.234 Bogey 2018

.218 Betts 2019

.195 Vaz 2019

.193 Devers 2018

 

Team:

.185 2018 (19th in MLB from 2018-2019: 2 years x 30 teams=60 samples)

.205 2019 (5th in MLB from 2018-2019)

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't know if this Stat is directly applicable to the worth of a player. Player A could get 10 singles a double and a HR in 20 times at bat and get 4 points towards his worth while player B could get 3 HR in 20 ABs and get 9 points toward his ISO stat worth. I'd prefer player A on my team.

[moonslav59]

I don't know if this Stat is directly applicable to the worth of a player. Player A could get 10 singles a double and a HR in 20 times at bat and get 4 points towards his worth while player B could get 3 HR in 20 ABs and get 9 points toward his ISO stat worth. I'd prefer player A on my team.

 

The stat only measures HR power, and is not meant to be a total player value stat.

[moonslav59]

Our team OPS is 57 points higher in the second half of 2019 than the first. In the second half, we have 6 guys with an OPS over .880.

 

We were 35-35 in the first half and 40-29 since.

 

Our ERA improved by nearly a half run.

 

We just can't win enough games, and it goes way beyond pen struggles.

[notin]

Our team OPS is 57 points higher in the second half of 2019 than the first. In the second half, we have 6 guys with an OPS over .880.

 

We were 35-35 in the first half and 40-29 since.

 

Our ERA improved by nearly a half run.

 

We just can't win enough games, and it goes way beyond pen struggles.

 

The Sox are 21st in MLB for IP from the starter at 708 IP.

 

While Tampa and NY have fewer, Tampa'snumbers are skewed by the opener strategy, and the Yankees were built around the bullpen, unlike the Sox.

 

The Sox bullpen has actually been somewhat of a surprise, and would look a lot better across the board if they weren't so heavily relied upon. This was a team that was clearly built with a solid starting rotation in mind, and they have not had one...

[Bellhorn04]

Our team OPS is 57 points higher in the second half of 2019 than the first. In the second half, we have 6 guys with an OPS over .880.

 

We were 35-35 in the first half and 40-29 since.

 

Our ERA improved by nearly a half run.

 

We just can't win enough games, and it goes way beyond pen struggles.

 

Our Pythag record is 78-61, so we've had some bad luck on top of everything else. Not to mention where we'd be if we were in the NL.

 

Just one of those years.

[jacksonianmarch]

You will consistently underperform your pythag if you pen sucks. Also, this year is strange. So many teams on the tank and only a few on the rise. That being said, I do find it ironic that JD Martinez was lamenting the state of competition in the majors and that "on opening day you know who is gonna make the playoffs". How'd that work out for you JD?

[harmony]

Our Pythag record is 78-61, so we've had some bad luck on top of everything else. Not to mention where we'd be if we were in the NL.

 

Just one of those years.

The Red Sox are 7-8 in interleague play where the National League holds a 158-142 advantage this season.

Edited September 5, 2019 by harmony

[dgalehouse]

The Red Sox are 7-8 in interleague play this year where the National League holds a 158-142 advantage this season.

The best scenario would be to be in the N.L. standings , but still play many games against the Blue Jays , Orioles , Tigers , Royals and White Sox . Unfortunately, the N.L. does not have all these weak links to beat up on .

[Bellhorn04]

You will consistently underperform your pythag if you pen sucks.

 

Show us your numbers on that, please...

 

But seriously, a lot of it can be good old randomness. You will definitely find teams with good bullpens that underperform their Pythag.

[moonslav59]

You will consistently underperform your pythag if you pen sucks. Also, this year is strange. So many teams on the tank and only a few on the rise. That being said, I do find it ironic that JD Martinez was lamenting the state of competition in the majors and that "on opening day you know who is gonna make the playoffs". How'd that work out for you JD?

 

So, your pen was better last year than this, but you only finished 1 game over your Pythag.

 

This year, it's worse and you are 7 games over it.

 

Your theory sounds good, on paper, but what data do you have to support this claim?

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox are 7-8 in interleague play where the National League holds a 158-142 advantage this season.

 

That's not really the point though. We're a little unlucky in that the AL has teams with better records fighting for the Wild Card than the NL does this year.

 

It's no excuse for our situation by any means.

[notin]

You will consistently underperform your pythag if you pen sucks. Also, this year is strange. So many teams on the tank and only a few on the rise. That being said, I do find it ironic that JD Martinez was lamenting the state of competition in the majors and that "on opening day you know who is gonna make the playoffs". How'd that work out for you JD?

 

The Phillies and Braves disagree with this.

 

And the Mets have one of the least effective bullpens in MLB and are 1 game under their Pythagorean record.

 

In fact, using fWAR as a measure, the Red Sox have the 4th best bullpen in MLB this year...