A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[illinoisredsox]

Is anyone interested in chatting offseason free agent signings yet? https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

 

Assuming they don't bring Porcello back, we need at least one starting pitcher (Sale-Price-ERod-Eovalid-?).

They need potentially 5 quality relievers.

We can move Mookie to center field (if he isn't traded), and then we need a right fielder unless we put JDM there.

At least one infielder.

A back up catcher.

 

That's a lot of needs, so they may have to bargain shop

 

Okay, hunting through the free agent list, here's what I've got:

Starting pitcher: How about bringing Wade Miley back? He's only making 4.5 million this year, has a 3.11 ERA, and an 11-4 record. Otherwise Michael Pineda looks like a decent pickup.

Relief pitchers: I won't even try...

Outfielder: Nick Castellanos

Infielder: Eric Sogard

Catcher: Austin Romine

 

Pineda (4 years) and Romine (8 years) have long time Yankee stench that never seems to wash off.

 

And while that part is said sort of jokingly, I'm hard pressed to come up with any former Yankee, especially one with any measurable time in NY, who has done squat in Boston.

[notin]

Pineda (4 years) and Romine (8 years) have long time Yankee stench that never seems to wash off.

 

And while that part is said sort of jokingly, I'm hard pressed to come up with any former Yankee, especially one with any measurable time in NY, who has done squat in Boston.

 

Tony Armas never pitched a game for the Red Sox, but his contribution was immeasurable since he was a key component in trading for Pedro Martinez. Reportedly Steinbrenner was furious over Boston’s acquisition and asked his front office how they couldn’t get Pedro. He was told “because we didn’t have Armas,” whom they dealt to Boston for Mike Stanley...

[Bellhorn04]

There is no arguing that we would be a better team if the 1/2 guys pitched to expectations, and I am not denying that. As I said, we are stuck with those guys for contractual reasons. That being said, DD didn't fix or upgrade those parts of the staff that was fixable through acquisition. Also, Cora took way too long to realize that he has to drop Porcello from the rotation, and it looks like he is getting another start on Friday. Ughhh.

 

There is really no one to take Porcello's place tonight.

[moonslav59]

Is anyone interested in chatting offseason free agent signings yet? https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

 

Assuming they don't bring Porcello back, we need at least one starting pitcher (Sale-Price-ERod-Eovalid-?).

They need potentially 5 quality relievers.

We can move Mookie to center field (if he isn't traded), and then we need a right fielder unless we put JDM there.

At least one infielder.

A back up catcher.

 

That's a lot of needs, so they may have to bargain shop

 

Okay, hunting through the free agent list, here's what I've got:

Starting pitcher: How about bringing Wade Miley back? He's only making 4.5 million this year, has a 3.11 ERA, and an 11-4 record. Otherwise Michael Pineda looks like a decent pickup.

Relief pitchers: I won't even try...

Outfielder: Nick Castellanos

Infielder: Eric Sogard

Catcher: Austin Romine

 

I say we should sign zero FA's, unless they are near min cost. Reset the tax and go for broke in 2021 or 2022 (hopefully, with Betts still on board).

[moonslav59]

There is really no one to take Porcello's place tonight.

 

Anybody is better, even Moreland.

[Bellhorn04]

I say we should sign zero FA's, unless they are near min cost. Reset the tax and go for broke in 2021 or 2022 (hopefully, with Betts still on board).

 

Isn't the idea of resetting the tax in 2020 and then going for broke in 2021 a little like fasting and then splurging?

 

I say that because you're basically getting yourself right back into trouble, assuming you're signing a few free agents to contracts more than a couple of years.

[a700hitter]

There is really no one to take Porcello's place tonight.

Thanks DD.

[moonslav59]

Isn't the idea of resetting the tax in 2020 and then going for broke in 2021 a little like fasting and then splurging?

 

I say that because you're basically getting yourself right back into trouble, assuming you're signing a few free agents to contracts more than a couple of years.

 

Depends. If we sign just the highest priced FAs, we will likely get right back to where we are now, soon afterwards.

 

Maybe we try and sign mid level FAs to shorter term deals.

 

I'm also hoping 2 years in a row with draft picks in the top 20-24 might help rebuild the farm for after 2023 or so.

[moonslav59]

Here's a look at Sale's losing starts:

IP Runs Result

3.0 7 lost 12-4 (Not pen's fault)

6.0 1 lost 1-0 (Not pen's fault)

4.0 5 lost 7-5 (Not pen's fault)

5.0 4 lost 8-0 NPF

5.0 2 Lost 7-4 Yes, Pen's fault

7.0 4 lost 5-2 NPF

7.0 2 lost 5-4 YES, pen's fault

6.0 3 lost 4-3 NPF

6.0 4 lost 4-1 NPF

7.0 1 lost 4-3 YES Pen's fault

6.0 5 lost 8-7 NPF

5.2 5 lost 6-3 NPF

4.2 5 lost 11-2 NPF

5.1 6 lost 9-6 NPF

3.2 8 lost 9-2 NPF

 

(Note: To be fair, some NPF might have seen a blown save.)

 

Only 3 of the losses in Sale's starts were the pen's fault.

 

Look at some wins:

5.1 3 won 4-3 (Pen did better)

6.0 2 won 7-2 PDB

5.0 4 won 7-5 PDB

6.2 5 won 7-6 PDB

 

That's four of the 10 wins where the pen did better and only 3 of the 15 losses where the pen did worse.

 

Now, let's look at Price (Sox are 9-12 in his starts):

 

Losses

IP Runs Result

6.0 4 lost 7-0 Not Pens Fault

6.0 4 lost 5-4 NPF

6.0 2 lost 6-4 Yes, Pen's Fault

6.0 3 lost 6-4 Yes, more Pen's Fault

0.2 0 lost 4-3 Hard to blame pen with 4 runs allowed in 8.1 IP

6.0 9 lost 7-5 Totally Pen's fault

5.0 1 lost 4-3 Yes, more Pen's Fault (or Bats)

5.0 4 lost 7-4 NPF

4.0 6 lost 11-2 NPF

6.0 3 lost 3-2 NPF (Bats)

4.1 4 lost 6-5 NPF

2.2 7 lost 7-4 NPF

 

Only 4 of his 12 losses can be blamed on the pen.

 

Now, some of the wins:

5.0 2 won 4-3 Pen Did Better

5.0 2 won 12-2 PDB

6.0 1 won 5-1 PDB (or as good)

1.1 6 won 7-6 PDB (saved his ass better)

6.0 3 won 6-3 PDB

 

That's 5 of the 9 wins where the pen did better, but Price pitched well in 3 of them.

 

Let's say 4 losses on the pen and 2 wins on the pen. That's a net gain to Price of 2 wins.

 

We maybe should have been 11-10 in Price's starts with a decent pen.

[a700hitter]

The 30-year-old Sale’s performance has been much-maligned this season, though apart from his participation in the league-wide gopher-ball parade, his dominant stuff seems very well intact. Sale’s still setting down a league-best 13.32 per nine, walking a minuscule 2.26/9, and getting grounders at a league-average rate. His FIP is a full run lower than his 4.40 ERA, while his 2.94 xFIP (a metric that accounts for his career-worst 19.5% HR/FB) ranks second in the AL to Gerrit Cole.

 

In short, it’s still all there for Sale, provided the left-hander isn’t dealing with a more serious injury to his left elbow than initially believed. The Red Sox have fallen six and a half games

And these metrics look even better if you look at them from May 1st to the present.

[moonslav59]

And these metrics look even better if you look at them from May 1st to the present.

 

Lol

[a700hitter]

Lol

Glad you took it in the spirit in which it was intended.

[moonslav59]

I finally understood one of your posts.

 

Your turn!

 

😳

[moonslav59]

Forgive my bluntness recently. Some of you may know my 19 year old dog died recently and my brother in law died unexpectedly 2 days ago, and we are going through a tough time with his family, right now.

[dgalehouse]

Forgive my bluntness recently. Some of you may know my 19 year old dog died recently and my brother in law died unexpectedly 2 days ago, and we are going through a tough time with his family, right now.

 

Sorry to hear that . Best wishes to you .

[moonslav59]

Sorry to hear that . Best wishes to you .

 

Thanks. We got home, tonight. Not sure when the service will be.

[Nick]

Thanks. We got home, tonight. Not sure when the service will be.

 

That's really horrible. Best wishes to you, all your family members and friends.

Edited August 19, 2019 by Nick

[moonslav59]

That's really horrible. Best wishes to you, all your family members and friends.

 

Thanks.

[Carpin]

Forgive my bluntness recently. Some of you may know my 19 year old dog died recently and my brother in law died unexpectedly 2 days ago, and we are going through a tough time with his family, right now.

 

Sorry for your loss, my best wishes

[a700hitter]

Forgive my bluntness recently. Some of you may know my 19 year old dog died recently and my brother in law died unexpectedly 2 days ago, and we are going through a tough time with his family, right now.

That is really terrible, just awful. I offer my sincere condolences.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Thanks. We got home, tonight. Not sure when the service will be.

 

Moon prayers to you and your family .

[oldtimer]

Prayers go with you. I have two older brothers and one goes under the knife tomorrow to solve a problem resulting from a prior poorly done surgery and maybe to do exploratory work on a cyst on a kidney. He is 83+ and still a good softball player who can hit the ball 280, even at that age. We often play together when we are in the same town in the winter. We are crossing our fingers.

[moonslav59]

Prayers go with you. I have two older brothers and one goes under the knife tomorrow to solve a problem resulting from a prior poorly done surgery and maybe to do exploratory work on a cyst on a kidney. He is 83+ and still a good softball player who can hit the ball 280, even at that age. We often play together when we are in the same town in the winter. We are crossing our fingers.

 

I hope all goes well. I'll say a prayer.

[harmony]

Thanks. We got home, tonight. Not sure when the service will be.

My condolences.

[jacksonianmarch]

Never easy. RIP

[Kimmi]

Forgive my bluntness recently. Some of you may know my 19 year old dog died recently and my brother in law died unexpectedly 2 days ago, and we are going through a tough time with his family, right now.

 

Sorry to hear this Moon. My condolences to you and your family.

[Kimmi]

Prayers go with you. I have two older brothers and one goes under the knife tomorrow to solve a problem resulting from a prior poorly done surgery and maybe to do exploratory work on a cyst on a kidney. He is 83+ and still a good softball player who can hit the ball 280, even at that age. We often play together when we are in the same town in the winter. We are crossing our fingers.

 

Hope all goes well Oldtimer.

[oldtimer]

Hope all goes well Oldtimer.

 

Thanks. With an older person, you never know and his wife is not a lot of help to him at this time due to age. They do have caring friends nearby. Just part of getting old.

[SoxHop]

Just blow this bull crap up. Start with a catcher. Keep X-Man and Devers. The rest can go.

 

Get a good catcher.

[Bellhorn04]

Just blow this bull crap up. Start with a catcher. Keep X-Man and Devers. The rest can go.

 

Get a good catcher.

 

Who's gonna pitch?