A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[notin]

That's based on the premise that we can land an equally good defender and I wouldn't part with JBJ until I was sure that player was in the fold. IMO one in the hand is worth two in the bush (In everything but sex).

 

Given that we have a fair idea of what his salary would be in 2020 I'm not in favor of either of those proposals. Ask me again after the Mookie situation gets settled.

 

This will be settled before Betts.

 

If the Sox are resetting or taking budget into account, keeping Bradley isn’t likely. And even if the next CF isn’t as good defensively, undoubtedly the Sox front office has made the same observation as me - that not as many balls were hit to the CF this year. This means the focus might shift from expensive elite defense towards significantly cheaper adequate defense...

[oldtimer]

Sale had a good performance last night until the caught onto him the 3rd time through or he weakened, whichever was the case. It will be something to watch going forward. He had a good performance the prior time so his effort last night is inconclusive. If he becomes a 5 inning ace going forward, is that good enough?

[Slasher9]

Sale had a good performance last night until the caught onto him the 3rd time through or he weakened, whichever was the case. It will be something to watch going forward. He had a good performance the prior time so his effort last night is inconclusive. If he becomes a 5 inning ace going forward, is that good enough?

 

his performance would have looked a lot better if devers had fielded that ground ball.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Sox need to put up a front as if they’re trying to win, but preserving Sale should be more important than a win in a lost 2019. If I was Cora, he doesn’t go past 6 for the rest of the year. He doesn't go past 5 in September. The goal for the Sox is for him to have a fully healthy offseason and a full spring training with the hopes of resurrecting his TOTR status next year. No point in having him go 7 when down 9 in a WC race.

[moonslav59]

The Sox need to put up a front as if they’re trying to win, but preserving Sale should be more important than a win in a lost 2019. If I was Cora, he doesn’t go past 6 for the rest of the year. He doesn't go past 5 in September. The goal for the Sox is for him to have a fully healthy offseason and a full spring training with the hopes of resurrecting his TOTR status next year. No point in having him go 7 when down 9 in a WC race.

 

They should have started limiting him to 80-85 pitches after the sweeps.

[moonslav59]

A look at the L-R splits this year:

 

vs RHPs- Impressive!

1.021 Devers

.939 Marco

.937 Bogey

.932 Betts

.894 Moreland

.840 Holt

.826 JD

.821 Beni

.774 Chavis

.762 JBJ

.750 Vaz

.700 Travis

.543 Leon

 

vs LHPs: Not bad at all!

1.345 JD (God-like)

.902 Vaz

.891 Bogey

.849 Travis

.832 Beni (Who was the clown that said to platoon him?)

.778 Devers

.751 Betts

.742 Chavis

.718 Marco

.610 JBJ

.606 Leon

.596 Holt

.385 Moreland

[S5Dewey]

This will be settled before Betts.

 

If the Sox are resetting or taking budget into account, keeping Bradley isn’t likely. And even if the next CF isn’t as good defensively, undoubtedly the Sox front office has made the same observation as me - that not as many balls were hit to the CF this year. This means the focus might shift from expensive elite defense towards significantly cheaper adequate defense...

Bizarre, just bizarre thinking.

 

IIRC we've agreed that Mookie gets to balls that JBJ would get to, thereby reducing JBJ's chances and deflating his dWAR. Then we talk about getting rid of JBJ not knowing if Mookie will be back. Whaaaaa?

 

But you're right when you say that, "the focus might shift from expensive elite defense towards significantly cheaper adequate defense." It might not, too, and given DD's propensity for liking solid defensive players (remember, he tried to trade for JBJ when he was in Detroit) I'd be surprised if it happened. DD's no idiot.

[moonslav59]

The amount of balls hit to CF did not drop enough to make an organizational change in philosophy.

 

Plus, having great D up the middle should be a top priority for any team in any park. Fenway makes it even more important to have great D in CF and RF.

[a700hitter]

Cora has the same team last year but with a gutted bullpen. Also, the last 2 spots in the rotation have been consistent dogshit. Still, even with those problems, this should still be a playoff contender. Cora got spoiled by last year's team hitting on all cylinders most of the season. He has been slow to react this year and it has cost wins. It took much too long to move Devers to the top of the order, when it was obvious to all that he was having the best season of all our hitters. Beni and his slump killed the offense when he was in the 2 hole. As for the pitching, he is only now figuring out that Porcello needs to go to the pen. Thankfully, he realized that Cashner can't take more starts. I think that he might finally have a handle on how to use these guys. Hopefully, it isn't too late.

[notin]

Bizarre, just bizarre thinking.

 

IIRC we've agreed that Mookie gets to balls that JBJ would get to, thereby reducing JBJ's chances and deflating his dWAR. Then we talk about getting rid of JBJ not knowing if Mookie will be back. Whaaaaa?

 

But you're right when you say that, "the focus might shift from expensive elite defense towards significantly cheaper adequate defense." It might not, too, and given DD's propensity for liking solid defensive players (remember, he tried to trade for JBJ when he was in Detroit) I'd be surprised if it happened. DD's no idiot.

 

 

DD has a on and off love affair with defense. This is a man who once moved Miguel Cabrera back to 3B to accomodate Victor Martinez at DH despite the fact that Martinez was already ruled out for the season. And he tried to trade Bradley last off-season for reasons related to the payroll.

 

Not to mention, the Sox do already have an elite defensive CF on the roster. They could easily move Mookie back to CF.

 

But the bottom line is, I doubt DD thinks Bradley is a worthwhile investment at $10-12mill given the likely budget limitations. If the goal is to reset, keeping Bradley is near impossible unless something unforeseen happens, like JD opting out or Betts being traded.

 

We all like his defense, but the time may have come where he is a luxury the Sox simply might not be able to afford...

[moonslav59]

Cora has the same team last year but with a gutted bullpen. Also, the last 2 spots in the rotation have been consistent dogshit. Still, even with those problems, this should still be a playoff contender. Cora got spoiled by last year's team hitting on all cylinders most of the season. He has been slow to react this year and it has cost wins. It took much too long to move Devers to the top of the order, when it was obvious to all that he was having the best season of all our hitters. Beni and his slump killed the offense when he was in the 2 hole. As for the pitching, he is only now figuring out that Porcello needs to go to the pen. Thankfully, he realized that Cashner can't take more starts. I think that he might finally have a handle on how to use these guys. Hopefully, it isn't too late.

 

Good points, but I think the rotation issues go beyond just the last 2 spots in the rotation.

 

Sale's ERA more than doubled. He's allowed 5+ runs 8 times and 4+ runs 13 times out of 25 starts. Last year, he let up 4 runs once and 6 runs once. All his other starts were 0-3 runs allowed. (Runs not ERS!) 2 out of 27 vs 13 out of 25.

 

Price's ERA jumped about 80 points. He's let up 5 or more runs 3 times and 4 or more 7 times in 21 starts. Last year, the same but in 30 starts not 21. 7 out of 30 vs 7 out of 21.

 

ERod has lasted longer in games, but his ERA jumper 50 points. He has 6 games with 5+ runs allowed and 11 with 4 or more out of 24 starts. Last year, he had 6 starts with 5+ runs (all with exactly 5) and NONE with 4 runs allowed out of 27 starts. 6 out of 27 vs 11 out of 24.

 

When you have your 4-5 slots sucking badly and your 1-3 slots dropping significantly from last year, it's hard for any manager to manage wins.

 

2019: 31 out of 70 starts with 4 or more runs allowed.

 

2018: 9 out of 84

 

[notin]

The amount of balls hit to CF did not drop enough to make an organizational change in philosophy.

 

Plus, having great D up the middle should be a top priority for any team in any park. Fenway makes it even more important to have great D in CF and RF.

 

Yeah but that depends on what is available. Can we agree there is certainly a possibility of Bradley being non-tendered, independent of whether or not welike his defensive play?

 

If so, the Sox might get a cheaper defense-oriented CF. Juan Lagares is the example I use the most because in no way are the Mets going to pick up his option. So we know he will be available. But there will be others, as well. Cameron Maybin is another, for example. IMO, these might be the two best defenders on the market, and neither is likely to get $10-12 mil. Even getting half of that would be the upper end of their offers.

 

Or maybe the sox realy make a shift. Move Betts to CF and get a cheaper RF. Kole Calhoun is one option who might be had for less. But that's a tough call. Calhoun has some impressive skills, but seems to have fallen off the last couple seasons for some reason.

 

Or they might decide to deal for an outfielder using someone like Barnes as trade bait, thus avoiding Barnes' arbitration. It's not like DD likes paying relievers...

[a700hitter]

Good points, but I think the rotation issues go beyond just the last 2 spots in the rotation.

 

Sale's ERA more than doubled. He's allowed 5+ runs 8 times and 4+ runs 13 times out of 25 starts. Last year, he let up 4 runs once and 6 runs once. All his other starts were 0-3 runs allowed. (Runs not ERS!) 2 out of 27 vs 13 out of 25.

 

Price's ERA jumped about 80 points. He's let up 5 or more runs 3 times and 4 or more 7 times in 21 starts. Last year, the same but in 30 starts not 21. 7 out of 30 vs 7 out of 21.

 

ERod has lasted longer in games, but his ERA jumper 50 points. He has 6 games with 5+ runs allowed and 11 with 4 or more out of 24 starts. Last year, he had 6 starts with 5+ runs (all with exactly 5) and NONE with 4 runs allowed out of 27 starts. 6 out of 27 vs 11 out of 24.

 

When you have your 4-5 slots sucking badly and your 1-3 slots dropping significantly from last year, it's hard for any manager to manage wins.

 

2019: 31 out of 70 starts with 4 or more runs allowed.

 

2018: 9 out of 84

 

I know that the starting pitching is your favorite theme, but the top 3 have been reliably good. I did not say great. They at least keep you in the game. To the extent Sale has taken a step back, ERod has taken a step forward. The back 2 spots have been black holes putting tremendous stress on a no-talent bullpen. Also, there is no decision for Cora to make with the top 3 (except not to baby them). They have not been bad enough to drop them from the rotation even temporarily. I would argue that Porcello should have been sent to the pen a month ago. I had proposed that before the trading deadline to send Porcello to the pen and trade for a starter. I think that was the way to go.

[moonslav59]

Yeah but that depends on what is available. Can we agree there is certainly a possibility of Bradley being non-tendered, independent of whether or not welike his defensive play?

 

If so, the Sox might get a cheaper defense-oriented CF. Juan Lagares is the example I use the most because in no way are the Mets going to pick up his option. So we know he will be available. But there will be others, as well. Cameron Maybin is another, for example. IMO, these might be the two best defenders on the market, and neither is likely to get $10-12 mil. Even getting half of that would be the upper end of their offers.

 

Or maybe the sox realy make a shift. Move Betts to CF and get a cheaper RF. Kole Calhoun is one option who might be had for less. But that's a tough call. Calhoun has some impressive skills, but seems to have fallen off the last couple seasons for some reason.

 

Or they might decide to deal for an outfielder using someone like Barnes as trade bait, thus avoiding Barnes' arbitration. It's not like DD likes paying relievers...

 

Although JBJ is my favorite player, I've already said I expect him to be traded or non tendered this winter- reset or not.

 

Personally, it makes sense to me, BUT I want us to find another top defensive CF'er who costs less.

 

I don't know about Lagares, but his UZR/150 is bad-- I think.

[moonslav59]

I know that the starting pitching is your favorite theme, but the top 3 have been reliably good. I did not say great. They at least keep you in the game. To the extent Sale has taken a step back, ERod has taken a step forward. The back 2 spots have been black holes putting tremendous stress on a no-talent bullpen. Also, there is no decision for Cora to make with the top 3 (except not to baby them). They have not been bad enough to drop them from the rotation even temporarily. I would argue that Porcello should have been sent to the pen a month ago. I had proposed that before the trading deadline to send Porcello to the pen and trade for a starter. I think that was the way to go.

 

They have not been "lead your team to the playoffs" good.

 

You are right, none have been bad enough to ever say, "drop them fro the starting 5," but your point I responded to implied that the 4-5 slots and pen were the main reasons we dropped so far in the standings and with our record.

 

To me, all but ERod (and Workman in the pen) are responsible for what happened.

[notin]

Although JBJ is my favorite player, I've already said I expect him to be traded or non tendered this winter- reset or not.

 

Personally, it makes sense to me, BUT I want us to find another top defensive CF'er who costs less.

 

I don't know about Lagares, but his UZR/150 is bad-- I think.

 

 

If you like UZR, Billy Hamilton will certainly be available and no one wants to pay him anything close to that value.

 

Or the Braves might be willing (reportedly they are) to move on from Ender Inciarte, who is owed $16.4mill over the last 2 years (with an option) of a contract with a $6.1mill AAV. Inciarte might be a good "buy low" candidate.

 

Also, Lagares UZR is pretty bad this year, but it is typically very good...

Edited August 14, 2019 by notin

[oldtimer]

Today Johnson only lasted 2+, which is about what I expected. He isn't really starter material. The difference is the BP was stronger with both Cashner and Eovaldi eating innings. We can win with decent pitching and taking two from Cleveland shows what we might have done over the season with pitching.

 

Devers was great again and Bogie gave us a big lift. Vaz and Beni were also solid. What was apparent though is that Betts, JDM and JBJ all were unable to pick up the spin on the balls and time after time took big swings at balls totally out of the zone. All three of these guys have fought with those demons this year. Make a mistake and they hit it but sliders give all three of them serious trouble. Others make adjustments where they don't seem to have that ability.

[notin]

Today Johnson only lasted 2+, which is about what I expected. He isn't really starter material. The difference is the BP was stronger with both Cashner and Eovaldi eating innings. We can win with decent pitching and taking two from Cleveland shows what we might have done over the season with pitching.

 

Devers was great again and Bogie gave us a big lift. Vaz and Beni were also solid. What was apparent though is that Betts, JDM and JBJ all were unable to pick up the spin on the balls and time after time took big swings at balls totally out of the zone. All three of these guys have fought with those demons this year. Make a mistake and they hit it but sliders give all three of them serious trouble. Others make adjustments where they don't seem to have that ability.

 

Well, the Sox have been giving Johnson a small chance, but he has done absolutely nothing to pique anyone's interest. I suspect he is DFA material this offseason...

[Bellhorn04]

Well, the Sox have been giving Johnson a small chance, but he has done absolutely nothing to pique anyone's interest. I suspect he is DFA material this offseason...

 

I'll bet he's back on the Sox roster next year.

[S5Dewey]

I'll bet he's back on the Sox roster next year.

 

Along with JBJ.

[vegasbob]

Along with JBJ.

 

I would give Johnson a shot at being at ST, mostly because no other team would try to get him.

A much lower likelihood of JBJr being there , if his arb request is in the $10's or higher. At those levels a .220 hitter (on a good day) , pushing 30 is more of a liability than an asset on a team that clearly will need starting and relief pitching. Assuming DD staya around, he cannot have an off season like the winter of 2018/2019.

 

The almost laughable team performance immediately after the July31 deadline vote of confidence may well induce some payback to a few this off season, just to show who is in charge here .

[Bellhorn04]

Why wouldn't we want Brian Johnson back at $575 K or whatever it is. It's not like we're swimming with good pitchers. Johnson can be serviceable for stretches. He didn't hurt us today.

[notin]

Why wouldn't we want Brian Johnson back at $575 K or whatever it is. It's not like we're swimming with good pitchers. Johnson can be serviceable for stretches. He didn't hurt us today.

 

“Didn’t hurt us today” isn’t really a selling point.

 

The Sox don’t have a lot of talented young, cheap pitchers. But they do have a lot of flexible fringey pitchers they can mix and match on the roster. They have lots of flexibility due to the options still remaining on Poyner, Lakins, Shawaryn, Reyes, etc. If these pitchers are effective, they can go to Pawtucket.

 

The one guy they’re stuck with is Johnson. His lack of options could be a handicap...

[notin]

Along with JBJ.

 

Not unless he takes a pay cut or money gets freed up another way...

[jacksonianmarch]

Bad depth is better than no depth. Johnson proved serviceable last year. He has been hurt almost all year this year. He will get his shot as he is going to be cheap and there will likely be a competition for the 5 hole in the rotation. There is zero chance JBJ is back next year. If he gets hot and finishes the year well, he can be trade bait. If he continues to suck and finishes the year cold, he can be non-tendered. His cost vs what he brings isn't worth it to a cap strapped team

[notin]

Johnson might be back, but it doesn’t make me happy... Edited August 15, 2019 by notin

[S5Dewey]

There is zero chance JBJ is back next year. If he gets hot and finishes the year well, he can be trade bait. If he continues to suck and finishes the year cold, he can be non-tendered. His cost vs what he brings isn't worth it to a cap strapped team

 

That's pretty bold for a for a poster who's been wrong about the Sox many times. At least Notin was clever enough to couch his opinion in "Not unless he takes a pay cut or money gets freed up another way...".

[notin]

That's pretty bold for a for a poster who's been wrong about the Sox many times. At least Notin was clever enough to couch his opinion in "Not unless he takes a pay cut or money gets freed up another way...".

 

I wouldn’t call it an opinion so much as a theory. Not an unsupported one, but nothing that can’t be proven right or wrong for a few months...

[jacksonianmarch]

That's pretty bold for a for a poster who's been wrong about the Sox many times. At least Notin was clever enough to couch his opinion in "Not unless he takes a pay cut or money gets freed up another way...".

 

He's an arb player, so the max paycut he can take is 20% assuming he is tendered. If he isn't tendered, then he will be a free agent. He would be stupid to sign a below 20% deal with the sox when he could have his freedom to shop otherwise.

[Nick]

We bitch and moan about our pitching but it's ok to bring back Johnson because he makes less than $1M.

 

Oh wait, isn't that what DD did?