A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[moonslav59]

Next few games:

 

LAD ERod

LAD Sale

LAD Price

TOR Porcello

TOR Velazquez (Johnson?)

TOR ERod

TOR Sale

@BAL Price

@BAL Porcello

@BAL Velazquez/Johnson

@TBR ERod

@TBR Sale

@TBR Price

NYY Porcello

NYY Johnson/Velazquez

NYY ERod

NYY Sale

(Day off)

TBR Price +1 day rest

TBR Porcello +1

TBR (Trade acquisition? Johnson/Velazquez)

@NYY ERod +1

@NYY Sale +1 / @NYY Johnson/Velazquez (Dblhdr)

@NYY Price +1

(or, we could pitch Price in the 2nd game of the doubleheader and go with Porcello in game 4 of the series- depends if we pick up a SP'er.)

[moonslav59]

Updated Standings

 

Sox are 9 down on the Yanks (10 in loss column)

 

Sox are 2.5 down on TBR (2 down in loss column)

 

Final WC Slot

 

CLE --

BOS -1

OAK -1

TEX -1.5

[vegasbob]

Updated Standings

 

Sox are 9 down on the Yanks (10 in loss column)

 

Sox are 2.5 down on TBR (2 down in loss column)

 

Final WC Slot

 

CLE --

BOS -1

OAK -1

TEX -1.5

 

Just try winning a lot of games through July 31 vs top competition ( excluding Jays/O's). Then we might have a good fight on for AL East or WC #1 or #2. Just don't take it for granted yet that the Sox have won anything

[moonslav59]

Just try winning a lot of games through July 31 vs top competition ( excluding Jays/O's). Then we might have a good fight on for AL East or WC #1 or #2. Just don't take it for granted yet that the Sox have won anything

 

It's already a good fight for the #2 WC, and we are just 2.5 from WC #1.

 

We're right in the thick of it.

 

Yes, we need to win at a better rate than the first 91 games, and I think we will.

 

Nice start to the home stretch!

[Nick]

It's already a good fight for the #2 WC, and we are just 2.5 from WC #1.

 

We're right in the thick of it.

 

Yes, we need to win at a better rate than the first 91 games, and I think we will.

 

Nice start to the home stretch!

 

Goal has to be not losing any series moving forward and sweeping some against bottom dwellers. A sweep in essence flips a losing series.

[OH FOY]

Yesterdays game with the Dodgers marked the 13th time in 91 games that a Sox Starter got at least 21 outs in a game.

[oldtimer]

Moreland will be back as will Eovaldi. The goal is at least to play even with the Dodgers, Yanks and Rays and win the series against the Jays and Orioles. That would leave us around 13 games over 500 at the 1st of August. To do that, we need Price and Sale to Pitch like quality starters, the BP not to blow decent leads and DD to find us a 5th starter. Time is not on the Sox side. This stretch will be key to the Sox ambitions this year.

[devildavid]

Good to see that realism has finally settled in in the realistic thread. The Sox have never been anything but WC contenders all season. The WC competition is not to be taken lightly. It will be a dogfight to the end. If Sale becomes Sale and Mookie becomes Mookie they will have a better chance of making the postseason. I don't feel like any trades or roster moves are going to enhance their chances. To me, it comes down to performances of the key players. The supporting cast has done more than their share. If the stars rise, the Sox will be winners.

[OH FOY]

Way I look at it's 34 games in 35 days. Cora might have to do some drastic thinking on blowouts, and put position players in not just 1 but 2 innings, on blowouts to save the BP. Game might have to be sacrificed, for the long run.

Sox need a 5th Starter. I see the 5th Starting 7 games in the next Month+, and I don't expect Johnson back.

Lets see if the Spring Training regime was the right thinking. Because now more then ever, you need length from your Starters.

Edited July 13, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Way I look at it's 34 games in 35 days. Cora might have to do some drastic thinking on blowouts, and put position players in not just 1 but 2 innings, on blowouts to save the BP. Game might have to be sacrificed, for the long run.

Sox need a 5th Starter. I see the 5th Starting 7 games in the next Month+, and I don't expect Johnson back.

Lets see if the Spring Training regime was the right thinking. Because now more then ever, you need length from your Starters.

 

No real reason to think Johnson won't be back. He has thrown a couple of bullpen sessions.

[Bellhorn04]

Red Sox are 33-9 in ERod's starts over the last 2 seasons.

[OH FOY]

No real reason to think Johnson won't be back. He has thrown a couple of bullpen sessions.

 

OK then just we need with a stretch of many games, a 5th Starter, who averages about 4 innings. That will help the BP.

[OH FOY]

E-Rod needs to put about 3 or 4 of these beauties in a row right now. Guy is a horse, he should easily go 120 pitches. Just don't cover 1st base, to hurt his knee. Nobody bunts anymore, should be no problem.

[moonslav59]

Good to see that realism has finally settled in in the realistic thread. The Sox have never been anything but WC contenders all season. The WC competition is not to be taken lightly. It will be a dogfight to the end. If Sale becomes Sale and Mookie becomes Mookie they will have a better chance of making the postseason. I don't feel like any trades or roster moves are going to enhance their chances. To me, it comes down to performances of the key players. The supporting cast has done more than their share. If the stars rise, the Sox will be winners.

 

I seriously doubt the WC is decided in the last 4-5 games.

 

CLE will drop out and trade assets. TEX has surprised, but I think they will fade. OAK is hard to predict, but I think we beat them easily.

 

I have not given up on catching the Yanks, but they sure put the beat down on us last time.

[d-money]

I seriously doubt the WC is decided in the last 4-5 games.

 

CLE will drop out and trade assets. TEX has surprised, but I think they will fade. OAK is hard to predict, but I think we beat them easily.

 

 

I have not given up on catching the Yanks, but they sure put the beat down on us last time.

 

They’re trying to trade for pitching when they have an abundance of that. I can’t stand that team. Even when pitching is not a need for them they go out there and trade for more pitching.

[moonslav59]

With our pen being overworked and in shambles, going longer into games has been great for ERod, but in almost every other category of measurement, he is doing worse than 2018 (and in some, 2017 as well):

 

ERA

4.19 2017

3.82 2018

4.43 2019

 

ERA+

109

116

107

 

WHIP

1.28

1.26

1.32

 

FIP

3.97

3.65

4.03

 

IP/GS

5.7 (4th on team)

5.4 (4th on team)

5.9 (leads team)

 

QS%

50% (5th on team)

30% (4th on team)

37% (4th on team)

 

Run Support/GS

3.5

5.9

7.8

 

Team winning %

54%

83%

74%

 

Strange the team won more with ERod last year, despite scoring 2 more runs for him this year!

[oldtimer]

With our pen being overworked and in shambles, going longer into games has been great for ERod, but in almost every other category of measurement, he is doing worse than 2018 (and in some, 2017 as well):

 

ERA

4.19 2017

3.82 2018

4.43 2019

 

ERA+

109

116

107

 

WHIP

1.28

1.26

1.32

 

FIP

3.97

3.65

4.03

 

IP/GS

5.7 (4th on team)

5.4 (4th on team)

5.9 (leads team)

 

QS%

50% (5th on team)

30% (4th on team)

37% (4th on team)

 

Run Support/GS

3.5

5.9

7.8

 

Team winning %

54%

83%

74%

 

Strange the team won more with ERod last year, despite scoring 2 more runs for him this year!

 

He is still our best performer this year.

[d-money]

It looks like we will roll with the BP. Hope they start turning things around.

[devildavid]

I seriously doubt the WC is decided in the last 4-5 games.

 

CLE will drop out and trade assets. TEX has surprised, but I think they will fade. OAK is hard to predict, but I think we beat them easily.

 

I have not given up on catching the Yanks, but they sure put the beat down on us last time.

 

I think Cleveland will be in it until the end. Don't underestimate a Francona managed team. Oakland will be tough. Agree on Texas.

Edited July 14, 2019 by devildavid

[moonslav59]

I think Cleveland will being it until the end. Don't underestimate a Francona managed team. Oakland will be tough. Agree on Texas.

 

They may still sell, even if they are in it by the deadline.

[Maxbialystock]

While I agree that a realistic view of 2019, part ii, should focus on pitching, I have a grudge to surface and don't think it's worth another thread.

 

To me Bogie is hands down the team mvp, season to date. Yes, absolutely, Devers is having a great year and even his error rate is down, but Bogie plays SS decently well and with real focus even though he does not have great range. His OPS is .935, he is tied for 4th in MLB in rbi's and 7th in runs scored, and 17th in OPS--but his WAR is a measly 2.9 compared to Mookie's 3.6 and Devers 3.8.

 

The culprit is of course Bogie's DWAR, currently -.8, which means he is hopelessly, irretrievably terrible. Funny, but I hadn't noticed he was quite that bad.

[S5Dewey]

We've been down this road and every time we go down it we learn that some players whom we "thought" were ML caliber defensive players simply aren't. There are several (many?) players who aren't even as good defensively as a replacement player a/k/a a AAAA player.

 

Heck, according to BR we only have eight position players who are above 0.0 defensively. Everyone else is at 0.0 or worse, or exactly as good defensively as a replacement player or worse.

 

It's good to see that JBJ has dragged himself up to being as good defensively as a AAAA player though!

[illinoisredsox]

While I agree that a realistic view of 2019, part ii, should focus on pitching, I have a grudge to surface and don't think it's worth another thread.

 

To me Bogie is hands down the team mvp, season to date. Yes, absolutely, Devers is having a great year and even his error rate is down, but Bogie plays SS decently well and with real focus even though he does not have great range. His OPS is .935, he is tied for 4th in MLB in rbi's and 7th in runs scored, and 17th in OPS--but his WAR is a measly 2.9 compared to Mookie's 3.6 and Devers 3.8.

 

The culprit is of course Bogie's DWAR, currently -.8, which means he is hopelessly, irretrievably terrible. Funny, but I hadn't noticed he was quite that bad.

 

He makes the plays on the balls he gets to. But he doesn't to as many as most other guys. Many of the spectacular plays we see would be a lot more routine for better fielders (hmm, sound like anyone we mocked for years and years).

[Bellhorn04]

He makes the plays on the balls he gets to. But he doesn't to as many as most other guys. Many of the spectacular plays we see would be a lot more routine for better fielders (hmm, sound like anyone we mocked for years and years).

 

And I've always defended Jeter, because, in spite of the bad defensive metrics, his offense made him a big plus.

[harmony]

FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 58.2 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while FiveThirtyEight has the Sox chances at 46 percent:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

Red Sox fans could be in for an exciting finish.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The Red Sox have a 50-50 chance to obtain the wild card (4 teams--the Red Sox, Guardians, Rays, and A's--are fighting for two spots; there are actually 5 teams fighting for two spots if you believe the Rangers are for real).

 

If the Red Sox obtain the wild card, there is a 50-50 chance they will lose the game.

 

That's two 50-50 chances that the Red Sox will be eliminated before the real playoffs start.

 

If the Red Sox win the wild card game, they will need to win two playoff series against teams that played better than the Red Sox in 2019. In this scenario, the Red Sox's chances of winning are considerably less than 50-50.

 

The Cashner trade made sense in that the Red Sox didn't give up top prospects. It doesn't make sense for the Red Sox to trade top prospects for rentals. However, it might make sense for the Red Sox to move a top prospect for a player who will be under team control for a few seasons.

Edited July 14, 2019 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

While I agree that a realistic view of 2019, part ii, should focus on pitching, I have a grudge to surface and don't think it's worth another thread.

 

To me Bogie is hands down the team mvp, season to date. Yes, absolutely, Devers is having a great year and even his error rate is down, but Bogie plays SS decently well and with real focus even though he does not have great range. His OPS is .935, he is tied for 4th in MLB in rbi's and 7th in runs scored, and 17th in OPS--but his WAR is a measly 2.9 compared to Mookie's 3.6 and Devers 3.8.

 

The culprit is of course Bogie's DWAR, currently -.8, which means he is hopelessly, irretrievably terrible. Funny, but I hadn't noticed he was quite that bad.

 

Since SS is such a major defensive position, being slightly below average is multiplied. Some metrics show him as being horrible. My guess is he is somewhere between #18-24 out of the 30 SSs playing the most. I wouldn't argue with anyone saying he is #14-20 or #22-28.

 

[dgalehouse]

We've been down this road and every time we go down it we learn that some players whom we "thought" were ML caliber defensive players simply aren't. There are several (many?) players who aren't even as good defensively as a replacement player a/k/a a AAAA player.

 

Heck, according to BR we only have eight position players who are above 0.0 defensively. Everyone else is at 0.0 or worse, or exactly as good defensively as a replacement player or worse.

 

It's good to see that JBJ has dragged himself up to being as good defensively as a AAAA player though!

 

WAR , especially dWAR , is heavily influenced by personal opinion. We don't have to agree with , or accept , someone else's opinion.

[moonslav59]

WAR , especially dWAR , is heavily influenced by personal opinion. We don't have to agree with , or accept , someone else's opinion.

 

No, but the people who judge the plays and difficulty of the plays are trained, calibrated, rotated and together watch every play of every game- something none of us come close to doing.

 

I'd rank their "opinions" higher than any of ours.

Edited July 14, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Here are the rankings of our players by fangraghs:

 

Catcher (45 with 250+ innings)

2. Vaz (15.3) 9th in DRS +4

20. Leon (4.1) 21st in DRS +2

 

UZR/150 & DRS

 

1B (32 with 300+ innings)

22. Chavis -1.6 (10th in DRS +1)

26. Moreland -4.0 (18th at +0)

 

2B (43 with 200+ innings)

5. Holt +8.5 (26th in DRS+0)

17. Chavis +2.3 (26th at 0)

 

SS (31 with 300+ innings)

17. Bogey -0.5 (30th in DRS -14)

 

3B (34 with 300+)

20. Devers +1.6 (13th DRS +1)

 

LF (29 with 300+)

15. Fat Legs -0.2 (23rd at -3)

 

CF (31 with 300+)

26. JBJ -5.5 (25th at -3)

 

RF (30 with 300+

6. Betts +11.2 (3rd DRS +9)