A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[a700hitter]

The starting pitchers, as a group, need to perform better for the Sox to be true contenders. Tweaking the bullpen is not the answer.

I think you have it all wrong. We need a 5th starter that doesn't imitate a garbage can, but the bullpen is the glaring weakness.

[moonslav59]

I think you have it all wrong. We need a 5th starter that doesn't imitate a garbage can, but the bullpen is the glaring weakness.

 

Yes, but we also need the big 4 starters to start pitching like a big 4.

 

[a700hitter]

Yes, but we also need the big 4 starters to start pitching like a big 4.

 

ERod was fine last night. Porcello needs to stop pitching like 2015 Porcello.

[moonslav59]

ERod was fine last night. Porcello needs to stop pitching like 2015 Porcello.

 

ERod & Price have been okay, but over the last 4 weeks...

 

4.21 ERod

4.55 Sale

5.40 Price

5.85 Porcello

 

[Nick]

Vazquez Makes the All Star Team!

 

Felipe, that is.

 

 

 

Justin Verlander asked for Sandy to catch him.

Edited July 6, 2019 by Nick

[a700hitter]

ERod & Price have been okay, but over the last 4 weeks...

 

4.21 ERod

4.55 Sale

5.40 Price

5.85 Porcello

 

Only the 5th spot and Porcello concern me.

[moonslav59]

Only the 5th spot and Porcello concern me.

 

I think the big 3 will be fine as well, but the point was that they all need to start pitching better.

[a700hitter]

I think the big 3 will be fine as well, but the point was that they all need to start pitching better.

I will take them staying on course with what they have been doing since May 1st. Do we really need to go around with this again?

[moonslav59]

I will take them staying on course with what they have been doing since May 1st. Do we really need to go around with this again?

 

No, but stop implying someone saying our starters need to do better to means they don't think they will do better.

 

Our big 3 (or 4) starters have struggled for 4 weeks and need to improve for us to win.

 

May first is your cling to number, and nothing else matters. For some weird reason May 1st to June 1st matters more than June 1st to July 1st.

[a700hitter]

No, but stop implying someone saying our starters need to do better to means they don't think they will do better.

 

Our big 3 (or 4) starters have struggled for 4 weeks and need to improve for us to win.

 

May first is your cling to number, and nothing else matters. For some weird reason May 1st to June 1st matters more than June 1st to July 1st.

I implied no such thing. That is in your head.

[a700hitter]

No, but stop implying someone saying our starters need to do better to means they don't think they will do better.

 

Our big 3 (or 4) starters have struggled for 4 weeks and need to improve for us to win.

 

May first is your cling to number, and nothing else matters. For some weird reason May 1st to June 1st matters more than June 1st to July 1st.

Also, the period that I am using is May 1 to present which includes your June 1st to July 1st period--that is half the size of the period I am using.

[moonslav59]

Also, the period that I am using is May 1 to present which includes your June 1st to July 1st period--that is half the size of the period I am using.

 

Then, why not use the full season, which is 50% larger than your sample size?

 

Oh yeah, because it equals the "rest period" nonsense.

 

It's cleat you won't let go.

 

(It's not in my head. You implied our starters don't have to do better, basically because you are confident they will do better.)

[a700hitter]

(It's not in my head. You implied our starters don't have to do better, basically because you are confident they will do better.)

No, wrong again Moon breath. I am saying that I am fine with them continuing their performance since May 1st. That is all. I don’t think they will do better than the May 1st -July 1st period. In fact, I will be thrilled if ERod continues that for the full season.

[a700hitter]

Oh yeah, because it equals the "rest period" nonsense.

 

It's cleat you won't let go.

Then why do you keep bringing it up?

[moonslav59]

Then why do you keep bringing it up?

 

I bring it up less than you bring up the pen being the "garbage can imitators" when they've done better than the starters, so far this year.

 

They've been more responsible for wins game by game and less responsible for losses game by game. Just like tonight.

 

I'm glad our starters had a nice 1 month run this year. Yes, I said it again.

[a700hitter]

I bring it up less than you bring up the pen being the "garbage can imitators" when they've done better than the starters, so far this year.

 

They've been more responsible for wins game by game and less responsible for losses game by game. Just like tonight.

 

I'm glad our starters had a nice 1 month run this year. Yes, I said it again.

The bullpen is atrocious. There, I said it again. There isn’t a single arm in that pen that I would cry over losing.

[a700hitter]

Except for Eovaldi, and he is a starter. If your stats demonstrate that our bullpen is a strength, that makes a terrible case for the type of sabremetrics being practiced by you. No one in that pen could fetch us a used tarpaulin in a trade.

[moonslav59]

The bullpen is atrocious. There, I said it again. There isn’t a single arm in that pen that I would cry over losing.

 

Again, you fail to understand clearly stated positions.

 

I have been a strong advocate of acquiring a pen arm since say one of the off season. I do not want us to get a 5th starter because I think we need to spend every last dollar of the available budget on our pen. Our pen need help. It has over achieved for much of the year, but I have no confidence in just about the whole pen, except for maybe Workman and Hembree. I still hold out hope on Barnes and Brasier, but none of these guys should be our closer going forward.

 

I don't think anyone but you has trouble understanding my position.

 

You constantly conflate the fact that I think our pen has done better than our starters, so far this year with the idea that I think they will continue to do better or have done better recently. (By the way, using you twisted logic, our pen has done better over twice as long of a sample size than our starters.)

 

If you actually fread my posts, it has nothing to do with sabermetrics. I actually old-schooled it and went back and examined each and every game we played this year and evaluated who was more responsible for the win or loss- the pen or the starters. It wasn't even close. The pen has been way better at helping us win and keeping us from losing than the starters over the 2019 season. Someone questioned my methodology of using in game ERA to determine who gets credit or fault, since sometimes both did well or poorly, so I went back and assigned a +2, +1, 0, -1 or -2 for each game to the pen and the starters based on IP and ERs allowed. Again, the pen blew the starters away.

 

You look at blown saves and blame the pen for our woes. Certainly, they have lost way too many games for us this year, and that's why I want us to acquire a closer, but the so far this year, the starters have been more responsible for us being 10 down on the Yanks than the pen.

 

It's not a complicated position to hold, but you keep acting like I'd cry if we lost someone from the pen. Or, that by saying our pen has overachieved (from very low expectations) I'm saying they are good and will be good going forward. They've been horrible recently, but you don't like using the last month as a sample size for the starters-- only the pen.

 

Here are the updated results of a non saber look at our pen vs the starters:

 

BTW, Updated last 5 games Starter vs Pen Numbers:

85. W10-6 TOR: Price 6 IP 2 ER- Pen 3 IP 4 ER (Price gets W and +2, pen gets -2)

86. L 3-6 TOR: Sale 5.2 IP 5 ER- Pen 2.1 IP 1 ER (Sale gets L and -2, pen gets -2)

87. W 8-7 TOR: Velazquez 2.1 IP 3 ER- Pen 6.2 IP 4 ER (Pen gets W and -1, SP -2)

88. W 9-6 DET: ERod 5 IP 1 ER- Pen 4 IP 5 ER (ERod gets W and +2- pen -2)

89. W 10-6 DET: Porcello 5.2 IP 6 ER- Pen 3.1 IP 0 ER (Pen gets W and +2, SP -2)

 

 

By Wins and Losses Responsibility Game by Game:

Starters 19-24 (-5)

Relievers 30-16 (+14)

 

Alternative Scoring System (+2, +1, 0, -1, -2 given for each game)

SP +18

RP +35

 

If you disagree with a game's grading, I'd be happy to adjust, if warranted.

 

Blown saves suck. We've had way too many. s***** starts suck. We've had way-way-way too many. Again, this does not mean I am arguing the starters will continue being worse or that we need a starter not a reliever. This is ONLY Meant to show you that are starters have been worse than our pen- any way you look at it, except maybe your twisted view that May first to June first counts as much as June first to July 6th and March and April don't count, and May first to now tells all we need to know.

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Except for Eovaldi, and he is a starter. If your stats demonstrate that our bullpen is a strength, that makes a terrible case for the type of sabremetrics being practiced by you. No one in that pen could fetch us a used tarpaulin in a trade.

 

Totally unrelated nonsense.

 

Just because some scrubs RP'ers have overachieved above awful pre-season expectations does not mean any have trade value now.

 

Our pen has done better than our starters. That could mean both have sucked.

 

In evaluating each game, one-by-one, not using sabermetrics, our pen has done decent to well more than they have done poorly. Even bad pens do that.

 

Our starters have done poorly more than they have done well. They have underachieved. It doesn't mean they suck. It doesn't mean I want to trade one away or acquire one. It just means, to date, they have largely sucked. To date, the pen has done better than I expected, but they are not a team strength. They are worse than other pens, and our pen needs to be fixed in a major way.

 

Stop twisting my position into some weird convoluted thing. It's a simple and easily understood position by everyone but you.

 

[Oscars]

Porcello with his 5.33 ERA has been on a serious downward trajectory of late .

[OH FOY]

Last 3 starts Rick P. ERA is 12.75

Red Sox have now allowed 6 runs or more in 8 straight games. Tied for the second longest streak in a single season in team history.

Longest streak -1976 - 9 games.

There have been 202 combined runs scored in last 14 Sox games.

Sox- 103

Opp- 99

[Bellhorn04]

Last 3 starts Rick P. ERA is 12.75

Red Sox have now allowed 6 runs or more in 8 straight games. Tied for the second longest streak in a single season in team history.

Longest streak -1976 - 9 games.

There have been 202 combined runs scored in last 14 Sox games.

Sox- 103

Opp- 99

 

Well at least we're hitting right?

[Slasher9]

Last 3 starts Rick P. ERA is 12.75

Red Sox have now allowed 6 runs or more in 8 straight games. Tied for the second longest streak in a single season in team history.

Longest streak -1976 - 9 games.

There have been 202 combined runs scored in last 14 Sox games.

Sox- 103

Opp- 99

 

Jesus.

[OH FOY]

Well at least we're hitting right?

 

Only reason were winning. Pitching has no consistency. Starter will do good, BP will fail, or other way around.

Get into the Play-offs and pray.

14 of those games we played only 3 games against teams with a winning record. 1-2 in those games.

Get into the Play-offs we'll be facing better Pitching. So, Pitching is the backbone for every team, to advance. I never rely on hitting.

[Bellhorn04]

BTW, Updated last 5 games Starter vs Pen Numbers:

85. W10-6 TOR: Price 6 IP 2 ER- Pen 3 IP 4 ER (Price gets W and +2, pen gets -2)

86. L 3-6 TOR: Sale 5.2 IP 5 ER- Pen 2.1 IP 1 ER (Sale gets L and -2, pen gets -2)

87. W 8-7 TOR: Velazquez 2.1 IP 3 ER- Pen 6.2 IP 4 ER (Pen gets W and -1, SP -2)

88. W 9-6 DET: ERod 5 IP 1 ER- Pen 4 IP 5 ER (ERod gets W and +2- pen -2)

89. W 10-6 DET: Porcello 5.2 IP 6 ER- Pen 3.1 IP 0 ER (Pen gets W and +2, SP -2)

 

 

By Wins and Losses Responsibility Game by Game:

Starters 19-24 (-5)

Relievers 30-16 (+14)

 

Alternative Scoring System (+2, +1, 0, -1, -2 given for each game)

SP +18

RP +35

 

If you disagree with a game's grading, I'd be happy to adjust, if warranted.

 

Your scoring system is a valiant effort, but probably needs a tweak or two.

 

For one thing counting Velazquez as a starter there might be wrong. That was arguably a bullpen game.

 

The other question that arises is how what results would this system produce if you applied it to other teams?

 

My sense is that bullpens have a fairly large built-in advantage. The starter is one guy, the bullpen is a team of 7-8 guys.

[OH FOY]

I'm going to Post this and tell me if you think this is crazy. The Sox Pitching is letting Opposition hit .275 with RISP. Were hitting, as a team .278 with RISP. Tells me we are doing fine, sometimes have a Off day-happens.

But the Pitching is letting the Opposition right back into the game or getting behind. That's why they are so tight, or blowouts.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/split/39/league/al

 

Look at the run differential, Tampa has played 1 more game, and have allowed almost 80 runs less. WoW!

OK Tampa has 19 less innings, but that much difference. We seem to walk more too, when Runners are on.

Don't know how accurate this is, but this is concerning, at least to me. 192 is the average at this point, were a little higher at 203, but allowing too many runs, at critical times. OK that's it.

One last thing I lied, ha, Sox Pitching last year allowed a .234 BA against Opposition with RISP.

Here's 2018, just look at BB's.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/year/2018/split/39/league/al

Edited July 7, 2019 by OH FOY!

[jacksonianmarch]

To this point, the Sox are lucky to be playing this poorly yet facing bad competition. That stops after the break. The end of July and early August is a gauntlet

 

Dodgers 3

Jays 4

@ O’s 3

@ TB 3

NYY 4

TB 3

@NYY 4 (in 3 days)

 

That’s 14 consecutive games vs the teams in front of you. Teams who can pitch and hit. That run is a killshot with how the Sox have been playing. If DD is to add, he needs to do it before that run

[Slasher9]

To this point, the Sox are lucky to be playing this poorly yet facing bad competition. That stops after the break. The end of July and early August is a gauntlet

 

Dodgers 3

Jays 4

@ O’s 3

@ TB 3

NYY 4

TB 3

@NYY 4 (in 3 days)

 

That’s 14 consecutive games vs the teams in front of you. Teams who can pitch and hit. That run is a killshot with how the Sox have been playing. If DD is to add, he needs to do it before that run

Pythagorean says the Yankees are lucky as f*** so far this year.

That will change. They will not win the division playing so s***** and getting lucky wins.

[dannycater]

Last 3 starts Rick P. ERA is 12.75

Red Sox have now allowed 6 runs or more in 8 straight games. Tied for the second longest streak in a single season in team history.

Longest streak -1976 - 9 games.

There have been 202 combined runs scored in last 14 Sox games.

Sox- 103

Opp- 99

 

Interesting that both '76 and this year were coming off of World Series Hangovers.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pythagorean says the Yankees are lucky as f*** so far this year.

That will change. They will not win the division playing so s***** and getting lucky wins.

 

Do you even read the crap you post? They’re third in baseball in plus minus.