The annual Jackie Bradley Jr thread (2019 Edition)

[notin]

Castillo?

 

Baseball-wise his career got screwed by luxury tax rules shenanigans.

 

 

Personally I think it’s odd that the Sox are OK paying him $12mill but find it necessary to avoid a $12mill luxury tax payment. I do understand the Sox have no choice with Castillo, but that says they’re best bet was always to get this guy active and see if he’s either usable or tradable...

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I think it’s odd that the Sox are OK paying him $12mill but find it necessary to avoid a $12mill luxury tax payment. I do understand the Sox have no choice with Castillo, but that says they’re best bet was always to get this guy active and see if he’s either usable or tradable...

 

They obviously don't want to risk getting stuck with the tax bill on top of the $12 mill they're already paying.

 

Oh well, his contract is over after 2020!

[notin]

They obviously don't want to risk getting stuck with the tax bill on top of the $12 mill they're already paying.

 

Oh well, his contract is over after 2020!

 

It’s not that big of a deal if he can play. There are dozens of worse contracts out there for players who can’t play anymore.

 

And even at 40%, his contract would be a $4.8mill payment. Might be a lot to you and me, but what does $4.8mill buy these days? Right-handed middle reliever?

[mvp 78]

I agree. IMO, defense, in general, does not get the merit it deserves.

 

I don't think that's really true anymore. The reason that we are having a discussion about JBJ and not all holding pitchforks shows to me that there is much more current day value to defense.

[mvp 78]

Even as the biggest JBJ fan, there is no way he deserves $10+ mill a year. He should get around Jarrod Dyson money.

 

He already makes double that.

[mvp 78]

There is a reason I don’t have many complaints about Steve Pearce this season, he’s been awful, but I give him a break due to what’s happened in playoffs lol.

 

He's also a backup/platoon player who has had injuries. He's not the starting CFer.

[Bellhorn04]

It’s not that big of a deal if he can play. There are dozens of worse contracts out there for players who can’t play anymore.

 

And even at 40%, his contract would be a $4.8mill payment. Might be a lot to you and me, but what does $4.8mill buy these days? Right-handed middle reliever?

 

If the Red Sox are more than 40 million over the first tax threshold this year, they pay 72.5% on every additional dollar (30+42.5 surtax). That would be about $9 million.

 

If the Red Sox are more than 40 million over the first tax threshold this year and next year, they will pay 95% on every additional dollar (50+45) next year. That would be about $11 million.

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s not just the tax bill, it’s the draft pick penalty. They’re already falling back ten picks in 2019, bringing up Castillo would make that happen again in 2020 for a questionable gain

[moonslav59]

We've hashed this over again and again. Castillo is in Pergatory- where he will stay for the remainder.....

 

[notin]

We've hashed this over again and again. Castillo is in Pergatory- where he will stay for the remainder.....

 

 

Which is sad because he’s the best outfielder above A ball in the Sox system...

[mvp 78]

It’s not just the tax bill, it’s the draft pick penalty. They’re already falling back ten picks in 2019, bringing up Castillo would make that happen again in 2020 for a questionable gain

 

The draft is a crap shoot. I don't think dropping 10 positions is a killer.

[Slasher9]

It’s not that big of a deal if he can play. There are dozens of worse contracts out there for players who can’t play anymore.

 

And even at 40%, his contract would be a $4.8mill payment. Might be a lot to you and me, but what does $4.8mill buy these days? Right-handed middle reliever?

 

that $4.8MM is coming out of J Henry's bank account. aint happening.

[Maxbialystock]

Its been a month. JBJ has consistently been an above average player throughout his career. Judging him and calling him below average based off 1 month of a season isn't a fair assessment of how good he is.

 

Fine. Forget his hitting. Now please tell me what games he has helped win because of great plays he made in the field. And don't forget to subtract the games when he let runs in by not making great plays.

[notin]

Ok so let’s say the Sox trade/bench/DFA Bradley.

 

Betts can take center. Who takes RF?

 

If the answer is JD Martinez, who takes DH?

 

If the answer is Pearce (OPS .295), what exactly got accomplished here?

 

Or does Chavis DH and Holt (OPS .273) and/or Nunez (OPS .360) get more at bats?

[Slasher9]

Ok so let’s say the Sox trade/bench/DFA Bradley.

 

Betts can take center. Who takes RF?

 

If the answer is JD Martinez, who takes DH?

 

If the answer is Pearce (OPS .295), what exactly got accomplished here?

 

Or does Chavis DH and Holt (OPS .273) and/or Nunez (OPS .360) get more at bats?

 

If the answer is Pearce (OPS .295), what exactly got accomplished here?

 

i'll give it a shot:

RF defense declines

CF defense declines

DH production declines

CF offensive production increases

 

3 declines / 1 increase = do not do

[Maxbialystock]

For all you defenders of great defense, consider these simple numbers.

 

So far JBJ has played in 25 games and has 75 at bats and 50 total chances in the field. So it sure looks as though his fielding prowess really comes into play even though he is only one of nine on the field as well as one of nine in the batting order.

 

But consider. His fielding percentage is .980, which is pretty normal for any outfielder. In other words, most of the time almost any middle of the pack centerfielder could handle that position because the plays are pretty routine, hence the high fielding percentage.

 

My guess--only that--is that so far he has had at the most 5 opportunities to do something spectacular--or not. It's those 5 chances--assuming I'm right--that make him worth $8.5M this year. Actually that's $1.57M because the Sox have only played 30/162 so far this season. Thus my claim that he has already blown two of those opportunities gains in significance, and I haven't even counted the error he made.

 

Interestingly, on the hitting side nobody bats .980. Nosiree. Thus the valid comment by Kevin Costner in Bull Durham when he says that the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is one hit per week. So in fact hits are far more precious than catches because they are so much harder to come by.

 

And don't forget my other comment on this thread that the real key to a solid defense is a solid pitching staff.

 

All of which gets me back to JBJ. Statistically, I just don't see his immense value to this team even though I am in fact more comfortable when he is out there and do enjoy those occasions when he does something spectacular.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

For all you defenders of great defense, consider these simple numbers.

 

So far JBJ has played in 25 games and has 75 at bats and 50 total chances in the field. So it sure looks as though his fielding prowess really comes into play even though he is only one of nine on the field as well as one of nine in the batting order.

 

But consider. His fielding percentage is .980, which is pretty normal for any outfielder. In other words, most of the time almost any middle of the pack centerfielder could handle that position because the plays are pretty routine, hence the high fielding percentage.

 

My guess--only that--is that so far he has had at the most 5 opportunities to do something spectacular--or not. It's those 5 chances--assuming I'm right--that make him worth $8.5M this year. Actually that's $1.57M because the Sox have only played 30/162 of the season. Thus my claim that he has already blown two of those opportunities gains in significance, and i haven't even counted the error he made.

 

Interestingly, on the hitting side nobody bats .980. Nosiree. Thus the valid comment by Kevin Costner in Bull Durham when he says that the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is one hit per week. So in fact hits are far more precious than catches because they are so much harder to come by.

 

And don't forget my other comment on this thread that the real key to a solid defense is a solid pitching staff.

 

All of which gets me back to JBJ. Statistically, I just don't see his immense value to this team even though I am in fact more comfortable when he is out there and do in fact enjoy those occasions when he does something spectacular.

 

Let's simplify it a bit.

 

He has a WAR of about -1 right now. He's been awful and no, the defense doesn't outweigh offense that's this bad.

 

Those that support him think he'll eventually snap out of this horrific slump and get his WAR back on the plus side. That's how it has worked the past couple of years.

 

Not that complicated.

[notin]

Let's simplify it a bit.

 

He has a WAR of about -1 right now. He's been awful and no, the defense doesn't outweigh offense that's this bad.

 

Those that support him think he'll eventually snap out of this horrific slump and get his WAR back on the plus side. That's how it has worked the past couple of years.

 

Not that complicated.

 

 

Not to mention, the Sox bench players have all been hitting even worse. And Pawtucket isn’t exactly bristling with potential-laden alternatives. Gorkys Hernandez anyone?

[Slasher9]

Not to mention, the Sox bench players have all been hitting even worse. And Pawtucket isn’t exactly bristling with potential-laden alternatives. Gorkys Hernandez anyone?

 

maxbialystock wont lay it on the line and state what he would do if he were DD or Cora. he just chooses to pummel the player relentlessly. it's like the polar opposite of how he blindly/vociferously defended JF 2 seasons ago. he is very good at it tho. much credit given.

[notin]

The bottom line is, JBJ is starting because he’s one of the 9 best options the Sox have to start any game, regardless of his lackluster offense. Cora cannot put a better team on the field with any players he has...

[mvp 78]

It’s not that big of a deal if he can play. There are dozens of worse contracts out there for players who can’t play anymore.

 

And even at 40%, his contract would be a $4.8mill payment. Might be a lot to you and me, but what does $4.8mill buy these days? Right-handed middle reliever?

 

If they thought his ceiling was above a 4th OFer, he'd be up by now.

[mvp 78]

Let's simplify it a bit.

 

He has a WAR of about -1 right now. He's been awful and no, the defense doesn't outweigh offense that's this bad.

 

Those that support him think he'll eventually snap out of this horrific slump and get his WAR back on the plus side. That's how it has worked the past couple of years.

 

Not that complicated.

 

The problem is that a lot of people surmised that this would be the season where there would be no extended valleys. What if this ends up being the season where there are no peaks? The later option seems far more likely going forward.

[Bellhorn04]

The problem is that a lot of people surmised that this would be the season where there would be no extended valleys. What if this ends up being the season where there are no peaks? The later option seems far more likely going forward.

 

Anyone's guess. If the Sox think he's going to OPS .400 all year, they're probably looking for a replacement right now.

[mvp 78]

Anyone's guess. If the Sox think he's going to OPS .400 all year, they're probably looking for a replacement right now.

 

The Sox clearly didn't think Swihart would drag us to a 5-13 record either.

 

Sox are 7-4 since the trade. They'll end up at 97 wins if they keep up this pace.

[cp176]

We've hashed this over again and again. Castillo is in Pergatory- where he will stay for the remainder.....

 

 

and we have had to continue to listen over and over again about how the Red Sox are guilty of screwing up the careers of Swihart and likely others but here we have what could be one of the strangest situations of all. No one knows how well Castillo would play at the ml level. I 'm glad that he is over paid since I find the fact that he will likely never get to Fenway and continue to be our highest performing outfielder at the AAA level really really weird.

[mvp 78]

and we have had to continue to listen over and over again about how the Red Sox are guilty of screwing up the careers of Swihart and likely others

 

Scott Cooper should be in the HOF.

[Bellhorn04]

and we have had to continue to listen over and over again about how the Red Sox are guilty of screwing up the careers of Swihart and likely others but here we have what could be one of the strangest situations of all. No one knows how well Castillo would play at the ml level. I 'm glad that he is over paid since I find the fact that he will likely never get to Fenway and continue to be our highest performing outfielder at the AAA level really really weird.

 

It's a unique situation, that's for sure.

[Maxbialystock]

maxbialystock wont lay it on the line and state what he would do if he were DD or Cora. he just chooses to pummel the player relentlessly. it's like the polar opposite of how he blindly/vociferously defended JF 2 seasons ago. he is very good at it tho. much credit given.

 

Actually, I have already said I am fine with whatever Cora decides to do, and right now, with the dearth of outfielders, keeping JBJ in CF is a no-brainer. So I completely agree with Notin's point--JBJ is one of the 9 best Cora can field right now.

 

Yes, I did defend Farrell--a lot--but did so on general principles because there were also times when I was on the Fire Him Now bandwagon. I frankly don't think managers make that much difference even though I was stunned by how effective Cora was last year. He may be young, but he sure seems to know what he is doing--the ST notwithstanding.

 

But you are dead on target that I like to argue points, not all the time, but some of the time. In the case of JBJ, everyone seems to ignore my point that so far this season JBJ is not that much a plus factor in center field. So I hereby invite one and all to cite particularly great catches which also affected game outcomes this year. I have mentioned a couple which I think he botched.

[cp176]

Scott Cooper should be in the HOF.

 

ok - not sure how it relates but just ok.

[mvp 78]

ok - not sure how it relates but just ok.

 

Sox screwed up his development obviously.