What are the chances of Porcello being offered a contract extension?

[Bellhorn04]

I have doubts that he comes back too, but I wouldn't rule it out. This team has surprised us more than once with the lengths they're willing to go to to put a strong team on the field.

[notin]

I doubt Porcello comes back, even if we lose JD to the option & free agency.

 

If JD opts out and signs with another team, I expect DD to sign either Josh Donaldson or Jose Abreu...

[bertha]

Subscribed to this one

[TylerD]

Subscribed to this one

Your user name is hilarious.

 

Unless that is your actual name... then my bad.

[TylerD]

I doubt Porcello comes back, even if we lose JD to the option & free agency.

 

If Ryan Weber keeps playing like this and takes Porcellos spot then we don’t need Porcello as much as I like him.

[moonslav59]

If JD opts out and signs with another team, I expect DD to sign either Josh Donaldson or Jose Abreu...

 

Certainly a couple options. Donaldson needs to show he's healthy and good enough. Abreu makes sense, assuming the cost is not absurd.

 

The self-imposed budget limit is going to be the biggest factor, IMO.

[oldtimer]

Certainly a couple options. Donaldson needs to show he's healthy and good enough. Abreu makes sense, assuming the cost is not absurd.

 

The self-imposed budget limit is going to be the biggest factor, IMO.

 

I wouldn't characterize the budget sensitivity as self imposed. MLB have serious penalties associated with going over and staying over the competitive balance tax limit. We just need to make good choices and live within those reasonable constraints as the other teams are successfully doing. Best way to do that is to continually develop young players such as Beni, Devers and Chavis. It's also time that we see some of our young pitchers move forward. We are carrying Sandoval and Pedey this year without any value. Thats close to 15% of the budget. Lets hope we have learned, but I doubt it.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't characterize the budget sensitivity as self imposed. MLB have serious penalties associated with going over and staying over the competitive balance tax limit. We just need to make good choices and live within those reasonable constraints as the other teams are successfully doing. Best way to do that is to continually develop young players such as Beni, Devers and Chavis. It's also time that we see some of our young pitchers move forward. We are carrying Sandoval and Pedey this year without any value. Thats close to 15% of the budget. Lets hope we have learned, but I doubt it.

 

This is the context I meant my statement to be taken:

 

Personally, I think Henry wants to reset after this year, especially since we won in 2018, and some of the pressure is off. If this is true, it's a major budget constraint that pretty much means we lose every FA-to-be and can't replace anybody through cheap free agents.

 

If we set the limit at the $19.9M over mark, we will have the ability to keep JD or sign someone (cheaper) to replace Porcello and/or JD.

 

If we set the line at $39.9M over the mark, we can stay about as competitive as we are now, but may have to lose Porcello and replace him from within or with a cheaper FA.

 

If we are okay going over $40M, we can keep everybody and maybe add a moderate FA somewhere (pen, 1B, 2B?).

 

To me, the budget Henry sets or strongly suggests will be the major factor in what happens next year and what ends up happening with Betts after 2020.

 

If we reset after this year, we may be able to afford to pay Betts (and the tax) afterwards.

[Bellhorn04]

This is the context I meant my statement to be taken:

 

Personally, I think Henry wants to reset after this year, especially since we won in 2018, and some of the pressure is off. If this is true, it's a major budget constraint that pretty much means we lose every FA-to-be and can't replace anybody through cheap free agents.

 

Forget the reset. Henry cares more about winning.

 

The extensions for Sale and Bogaerts showed this.

 

And JDM is pretty unlikely to opt out after this year.

[notin]

Forget the reset. Henry cares more about winning.

 

The extensions for Sale and Bogaerts showed this.

 

And JDM is pretty unlikely to opt out after this year.

 

 

The only way the Sox reset is if the team is awful. But right now, they are not.

 

However, they still might try to stay under at least one of the limits.

 

And JD would be wise to wait at least one more year before opting out...

[moonslav59]

Forget the reset. Henry cares more about winning.

 

The extensions for Sale and Bogaerts showed this.

 

And JDM is pretty unlikely to opt out after this year.

 

While I don't think the odds of a reset after 2019 or 2020 are as high as I once did, I still think it is possible (maybe more after 2020 than 2019).

 

I do think staying under the $20M line may be a high priority. If that is true and JD stays, it's almost certain Porcello does not come back.

[Bellhorn04]

The only way the Sox reset is if the team is awful. But right now, they are not.

 

However, they still might try to stay under at least one of the limits.

 

And JD would be wise to wait at least one more year before opting out...

 

It's also possible that JD might not opt out at any point.

 

I love him but he'll be 32 soon, some physical issues are cropping up, and the gradual decline may be what we now see.

[notin]

It's also possible that JD might not opt out at any point.

 

I love him but he'll be 32 soon, some physical issues are cropping up, and the gradual decline may be what we now see.

 

 

Gee I don’t know. Jacko seems 100% certain that JD opts out but Aroldis Chapman won’t...

[notin]

If Ryan Weber keeps playing like this and takes Porcellos spot then we don’t need Porcello as much as I like him.

 

Ryan Weber is a nice story, but let’s not go overboard here.

 

He’s less than 2 years younger than Porcello and still has a ways to go to bring his career total to 100 IP, which is a total Porcello approaches every 3 month stretch of his career...

[Bellhorn04]

Ryan Weber is a nice story, but let’s not go overboard here.

 

He’s less than 2 years younger than Porcello and still has a ways to go to bring his career total to 100 IP, which is a total Porcello approaches every 3 month stretch of his career...

 

Yes, it would be good to maintain a healthy skepticism about Weber for a while.

 

It was kind of fun watching him pitch, though. Only 88-89 on the fastball but a lot of movement on his pitches. With that approach you REALLY have to hit your spots.

[Slasher9]

Forget the reset. Henry cares more about winning.

 

The extensions for Sale and Bogaerts showed this.

 

And JDM is pretty unlikely to opt out after this year.

 

after the parade i was 100% certain we would reset in the next year or two. everything you just mentioned above + some other indicators has completely changed my mind over the past 6 months. JH is NOT resetting.

[mvp 78]

Kind of like I've been saying all along?

 

No cliff. You're the cliff.

[Bellhorn04]

after the parade i was 100% certain we would reset in the next year or two. everything you just mentioned above + some other indicators has completely changed my mind over the past 6 months. JH is NOT resetting.

 

Something else I keep pointing out is that JH turns 70 this year. It's not like he has a limitless horizon before him.

[mvp 78]

Something else I keep pointing out is that JH turns 70 this year. It's not like he has a limitless horizon before him.

 

That's like middle aged for the average TalkSox poster.

[notin]

Something else I keep pointing out is that JH turns 70 this year. It's not like he has a limitless horizon before him.

 

70 isn’t so crazy old. And the man has enough money that he can afford to clone a younger version of himself to run this team for the next 50 years...

[Bellhorn04]

70 isn’t so crazy old. And the man has enough money that he can afford to clone a younger version of himself to run this team for the next 50 years...

 

No, it's not crazy old. But the stats do start working against you.

[notin]

No, it's not crazy old. But the stats do start working against you.

 

Carl Pohlad ran the Twins (horribly) until he passed away at 94...

[Slasher9]

Kind of like I've been saying all along?

 

No cliff. You're the cliff.

 

no cliff.

[moonslav59]

No, it's not crazy old. But the stats do start working against you.

 

You saber geeks!

[moonslav59]

no cliff.

 

Maybe a steep hill?

[vegasbob]

Regarding JDM (or Betts) staying or going as it affects the ability to resign Rick Porcello, I think Betts will hold out for the highest possible deal , regardless whether it is NL or AL. Probably a major market team due to the economics of paying him.

 

JDM is a different case. His contract values are preestablished, although could be rewritten and enhanced. He will be 33 in the 2020 season, and only he knows how much the back is bothering him. It seems to be a current factor, and we'll see if it causes any issues in the Houston series. Muscle pain can be worked on and can fade away. If it is a structural issue (discs, nerve impingement, etc) not easily cured. Surgery may be a season missed. As primarily a DH, JD will only be a consideration for an AL team, and only a few could afford him (NYY, Houston, CWS) . I would think he wants to play for a competitive , winning team. How likely are the Yankees to add his bat and pay Stanton ? Houston, completing JDM's redemption as a dropout there, may be more likely. Boston is still the best fit and should remain his baseball home at least through 2020.

 

Porcello will need to weigh time/money offered from several places. DD will have to weigh where you get 175-200 innings covered vs paying the guys in the field, not the pitchers. This would be self resolving if the Sox system ever developed a legitimate couple in-house young starters playing for MLB minimums for a few years.

[notin]

Historically DD’s first place to save money is typically the bullpen, as we saw this off-season and multiple times in Detroit and Florida/Miami.

 

With Barnes up for first arbitration, there is a possibility he is not back next season, depending what his final figure is...

[Bellhorn04]

Historically DD’s first place to save money is typically the bullpen, as we saw this off-season and multiple times in Detroit and Florida/Miami.

 

With Barnes up for first arbitration, there is a possibility he is not back next season, depending what his final figure is...

 

He'll be back. No matter what his arb cost, it has to be an attractive discount from FA cost.

[Kimmi]

Kind of like I've been saying all along?

 

No cliff. You're the cliff.

 

If Henry is willing to continue paying luxury tax penalties year after year, then there will be no cliff.

 

I didn't think he (or any owner) would be willing to go that route, but he just might.

[moonslav59]

If Henry is willing to continue paying luxury tax penalties year after year, then there will be no cliff.

 

I didn't think he (or any owner) would be willing to go that route, but he just might.

 

I agree, and my cliff dwelling has always been prefaced with the notion that we'd reset the tax before 2021. (I thought we'd do it after 2019, but I'm not so convinced.)