Devers

[Bellhorn04]

For his career Middlebrooks had a K/BB ratio of about 5 to 1. That's death.

 

JBJ is more like 3 to 1. Not great but not death.

[notin]

harmony, a personal question here, hopefully not an offensive one.

 

When was the last time you said something like: 'Man, I think this guy is really gonna be good!'

 

Can you remember back that far? Did it ever even happen?

 

 

I also think most fans set the bar WAAAAAAY too high for younger prospects.

 

If the parallel for Devers is Sandoval, we are talking about a player who, at age 25, was worth 15 fWAR with an OPS+ of 128 and 2 All Star appearances. Devers just finished his age 21 season and is worth 1.8 fWAR with an OPS + of 100 and no All Starvappearances. Why is Sandoval such a bad wish here? No one is saying that Devers is going to copy Sandoval’s fitn SS regime and apparent apathy. That can’t be determined through stat comparisons.

 

But if the comp says that in the next 4 years, Devers is going to be worth 13.2 fWAR with 2 All Star appearances while surpassing 28% of the league offensively, would you take it or not?

[Bellhorn04]

I also think most fans set the bar WAAAAAAY too high for younger prospects.

 

If the parallel for Devers is Sandoval, we are talking about a player who, at age 25, was worth 15 fWAR with an OPS+ of 128 and 2 All Star appearances. Devers just finished his age 21 season and is worth 1.8 fWAR with an OPS + of 100 and no All Starvappearances. Why is Sandoval such a bad wish here? No one is saying that Devers is going to copy Sandoval’s fitn SS regime and apparent apathy. That can’t be determined through stat comparisons.

 

But if the comp says that in the next 4 years, Devers is going to be worth 13.2 fWAR with 2 All Star appearances while surpassing 28% of the league offensively, would you take it or not?

 

Take it.

 

I guess it would just be more palatable if the comp wasn't a player we know bombed out spectacularly at a relatively young age...

[moonslav59]

For his career Middlebrooks had a K/BB ratio of about 5 to 1. That's death.

 

JBJ is more like 3 to 1. Not great but not death.

 

True, but JBJ was near 4:1 after his first 2 seasons. The big difference was that JBJ's minor league career showed a much lower K:BB ratio (236:167).

[moonslav59]

I also think most fans set the bar WAAAAAAY too high for younger prospects.

 

If the parallel for Devers is Sandoval, we are talking about a player who, at age 25, was worth 15 fWAR with an OPS+ of 128 and 2 All Star appearances. Devers just finished his age 21 season and is worth 1.8 fWAR with an OPS + of 100 and no All Starvappearances. Why is Sandoval such a bad wish here? No one is saying that Devers is going to copy Sandoval’s fitn SS regime and apparent apathy. That can’t be determined through stat comparisons.

 

But if the comp says that in the next 4 years, Devers is going to be worth 13.2 fWAR with 2 All Star appearances while surpassing 28% of the league offensively, would you take it or not?

 

If you had to project a reasonable floor and ceiling for Devers from here on forward, what would it be?

 

He's at .769 now with a 162 game average of...

 

.254 28 87

 

I guess one could think a flame out is possible, but I'd put those odds at very slight. Nothing seems to bother this kid. He's fearless and seems to work hard at improving his faults.

 

I'm think high-lows might be something like this:

 

Ages 22-26

.240 25 75 (.740)

.280 35 100 (.820)

 

Ages 27-31

.250 28 85 (.780)

.290 45 120 (.900)

 

Ages 32-36

.230 20 70 (.720)

.275 25 85 (.800)

[Kimmi]

Joe Brady on BDC educated me in the importance of K/BB ratio. He said Middlebrooks's ratio pointed to failure.

 

Somebody needs to get JoeyB to post here. I've tried unsuccessfully for years.

[Kimmi]

K/BB not straight K.

 

K/BB is a very good and simple stat to use in assessing both hitters and pitchers.

[Kimmi]

Take it.

 

I guess it would just be more palatable if the comp wasn't a player we know bombed out spectacularly at a relatively young age...

 

I don't think it's just the bombing at such a young age that bothers Red Sox fans. It's that we never got the good years before the bombing. And the bombing was horrendous.

[Bellhorn04]

Somebody needs to get JoeyB to post here. I've tried unsuccessfully for years.

 

I tried too.

[notin]

Take it.

 

I guess it would just be more palatable if the comp wasn't a player we know bombed out spectacularly at a relatively young age...

 

 

The problem wasn’t just that he bombed out, but that he did so in Boston nd we all watched. But that doesn’t change that Sandoval was actually an exceptional player for a long time...

[moonslav59]

I don't think it's just the bombing at such a young age that bothers Red Sox fans. It's that we never got the good years before the bombing. And the bombing was horrendous.

 

And, the financial cost was a big burden.

[moonslav59]

The problem wasn’t just that he bombed out, but that he did so in Boston nd we all watched. But that doesn’t change that Sandoval was actually an exceptional player for a long time...

 

The most exceptional part of Sandy's career, to me, other than his flame out just as he reached peak prime year, was that his best two seasons were at ages 22 & 24 , and they blew away his other years by a mile.

 

Age OPS

22 .943

23 .732

24 .909

25 .789

26 .758

27 .739

Then, the Boston years.

 

He totally blew the age curve away.

 

He currently has a .777 OPS, and if you count his low PA seasons, he was below that mark in 7 of his 11 years. He was below .790 in 8 of 11 years, and one of those 3 he was over was his 2nd shortest season of all (154 PAs in rookie year).

 

[jacksonianmarch]

High K guys in the majors are a bit different than high K guys in the minors.

 

A big part of the reason I’m wary about Dalbec...

 

Judge went from a 27-30% K guy in the minors up to a 37% K guy in the bigs. If a guy K’s a ton against lower level competition, he’s probably gonna K more vs better pitchers. You just need to hope his exit velo as his ages rises enough to make his BABIP be otherworldly

[SCM33]

Everyone is forgetting that he is 22. Most "big time" prospects are still in AA at his age. He hit 21 homers last year as a 21 year old. I'd say he will be around 30 this year.

 

We aren't giving him enough credit for what hes done at his age.

[moonslav59]

Everyone is forgetting that he is 22. Most "big time" prospects are still in AA at his age. He hit 21 homers last year as a 21 year old. I'd say he will be around 30 this year.

 

We aren't giving him enough credit for what hes done at his age.

 

Not all "we".

[mvp 78]

Not all "we".

 

Referring to me?

[moonslav59]

Referring to me?

 

Referring to several or us posters who have pumped up Devers and have very rosy outlooks on his future.

[oldtimer]

Referring to several or us posters who have pumped up Devers and have very rosy outlooks on his future.

 

I too believe he has a lot of upside this year. He is probably our best hope for improvement with JBJ being second in that parade and maybe Nunez third, since he is supposedly recovered from his leg injury.

[moonslav59]

I too believe he has a lot of upside this year. He is probably our best hope for improvement with JBJ being second in that parade and maybe Nunez third, since he is supposedly recovered from his leg injury.

 

I'm not sure this is the year Devers busts out. He's still young. He still has some issues he needs to deal with, but I am extremely confident he will be a great hitter at some point. My biggest worry is his defense, but I think he can grow to become a decent or even a plus defender at 3B. At worst, I think he can be an average defensive 1Bman. He will also hit well enough to be a DH, if things don't get better on defense.

 

I'm very hopeful he does well this year. I'd probably project an .800+ OPS this year.

 

[Nick]

I'm not sure this is the year Devers busts out. He's still young. He still has some issues he needs to deal with, but I am extremely confident he will be a great hitter at some point. My biggest worry is his defense, but I think he can grow to become a decent or even a plus defender at 3B. At worst, I think he can be an average defensive 1Bman. He will also hit well enough to be a DH, if things don't get better on defense.

 

I'm very hopeful he does well this year. I'd probably project an .800+ OPS this year.

 

 

We have five more years of Devers under team control and I'm going to just sit back watch him blossom. He's least of our worries.

[notin]

I'm not sure this is the year Devers busts out. He's still young. He still has some issues he needs to deal with, but I am extremely confident he will be a great hitter at some point. My biggest worry is his defense, but I think he can grow to become a decent or even a plus defender at 3B. At worst, I think he can be an average defensive 1Bman. He will also hit well enough to be a DH, if things don't get better on defense.

 

I'm very hopeful he does well this year. I'd probably project an .800+ OPS this year.

 

 

 

Fortunately the Sox lineup is stacked with enough top tier hitters that we don’t need Devers to break out and anything he does at the plate is a bonus...

[Slasher9]

Somebody needs to get JoeyB to post here. I've tried unsuccessfully for years.

 

this. 1 million percent. someone track him down!

[moonslav59]

Fortunately the Sox lineup is stacked with enough top tier hitters that we don’t need Devers to break out and anything he does at the plate is a bonus...

 

Yes, it's good there is no pressure, but with Devers, pressure doesn't seem to bother him, anyways.

[moonslav59]

We have five more years of Devers under team control and I'm going to just sit back watch him blossom. He's least of our worries.

 

Agreed, and I think these 5 years will be magical and marvelous!

[SCM33]

Referring to several or us posters who have pumped up Devers and have very rosy outlooks on his future.

 

I too believe he has a lot of upside this year. He is probably our best hope for improvement with JBJ being second in that parade and maybe Nunez third, since he is supposedly recovered from his leg injury.

 

If he figures things out, and learns how to approach an AB.......he will be a monster.

 

I said earlier he could hit 30 homers. I don't think that is really that much of a stretch, I actually expect him to hit at least 30. If he figures out the strike zone, and approaches AB's better.......he could hit 40 homers. He has INCREDIBLE power to all fields, and the ability to hit righty/lefty.

 

We need to be patient, weve already seen the talent, weve already seen the ability......lets be patient while he figures it out.

 

Defensively, Jacko said he would move to 1B. Thats a possibility. He has huge frame, maybe too big for 3B, his arm is what hurts his defensive numbers the most. He could end up being a very good defensive 1B'man.

[moonslav59]

If he figures things out, and learns how to approach an AB.......he will be a monster.

 

I said earlier he could hit 30 homers. I don't think that is really that much of a stretch, I actually expect him to hit at least 30. If he figures out the strike zone, and approaches AB's better.......he could hit 40 homers. He has INCREDIBLE power to all fields, and the ability to hit righty/lefty.

 

We need to be patient, weve already seen the talent, weve already seen the ability......lets be patient while he figures it out.

 

Defensively, Jacko said he would move to 1B. Thats a possibility. He has huge frame, maybe too big for 3B, his arm is what hurts his defensive numbers the most. He could end up being a very good defensive 1B'man.

 

I've been very cautious with my Devers timetable. He may takes a step back here or there, but IMO, he will be great in the not too distant future.

 

I also think he ends up at 1B in 1-2 years, but I want to give him a longer look at 3B. With Moreland and Pearce becoming FAs next year, the timing might be just right for that choice to be made after 2019.

 

[Slasher9]

Moon, you were the first person i remember stating he would be 1b. that was before anyone had even heard of him.

personally, i think he gets 2 or 3 more seasons at 3b. he has a cannon if he can sort out the accuracy....

[moonslav59]

Moon, you were the first person i remember stating he would be 1b. that was before anyone had even heard of him.

personally, i think he gets 2 or 3 more seasons at 3b. he has a cannon if he can sort out the accuracy....

 

I've not given up on him at 3B. He's been improving, and when that stops, we'll see where he is and decide then.

 

If Chavis is the guy we keep and call-up, my guess is Devers stays at 3B for at least 2-3 more years.

 

If Dalbec is the guy, we may want him at 3B and Devers at 1B.

 

We could even see this sometime soon:

 

3B: Dalbec (Devers back-up)

1B: Devers (Chavis back-up)

DH: Chavis

[mvp 78]

Moon, you were the first person i remember stating he would be 1b. that was before anyone had even heard of him.

personally, i think he gets 2 or 3 more seasons at 3b. he has a cannon if he can sort out the accuracy....

 

I'm ashamed of you right now.

[mvp 78]

I've not given up on him at 3B. He's been improving, and when that stops, we'll see where he is and decide then.

 

If Chavis is the guy we keep and call-up, my guess is Devers stays at 3B for at least 2-3 more years.

 

If Dalbec is the guy, we may want him at 3B and Devers at 1B.

 

We could even see this sometime soon:

 

3B: Dalbec (Devers back-up)

1B: Devers (Chavis back-up)

DH: Chavis

 

This makes sense. Dalbec is the superior defender. Devers seems like he'll be moved to 1b at some point if Dalbec comes up. Chavis is not very good anywhere in the field.