The Pen

[TylerD]

The Sox were an absolute unstoppable juggernaut last season . One would think they would be the favorites to repeat . Yet , they are not . The reason is our lackluster ( to be charitable) off season . The Vegas oddsmakers and the various pundits are looking at the same bullpen that I have been berated for questioning. And they are questioning it .

 

Whatever let them question it. It will be a question mark till the season starts. We have enough firepower and good starting rotation to carry this team. The pen makes me slightly nervous but we still have good enough players to compete.

[kenmeister]

I think they limit Sale's inning, like they did last year, even before the injury.

 

175-185 is probably what he will get with no time on the DL.

 

Last year they tried to limit Sale and it didn't work. I wonder what they will try this year. My idea is for him to pitch 3 starts regularly, then miss a start on purpose (and let Wright take it), so that would mean he pitches 75% of a regular starter. If a regular is 200, that would limit him to 150.

[moonslav59]

Last year they tried to limit Sale and it didn't work. I wonder what they will try this year. My idea is for him to pitch 3 starts regularly, then miss a start on purpose (and let Wright take it), so that would mean he pitches 75% of a regular starter. If a regular is 200, that would limit him to 150.

 

Just because it didn't work last year doesn't mean they will try to limit him more this year. They might, but they might not.

 

If we have no major rotation injuries, we may slide Johnson or Velazquez in for a start or two, especially in April to give everyone an extra days rest. If we do that and yank Sale a little earlier each game, I can see him getting 170 easily.

 

He got 158 last year while missing several starts all together.

[notin]

The Sox were an absolute unstoppable juggernaut last season . One would think they would be the favorites to repeat . Yet , they are not . The reason is our lackluster ( to be charitable) off season . The Vegas oddsmakers and the various pundits are looking at the same bullpen that I have been berated for questioning. And they are questioning it .

 

 

What I would like explained to me is:

 

After acquiring Kimbrel, DD did some binge shopping for relievers with closing experience, acquiring Thornburg, Smith and Reed. But then after losing Kimbrel and Kelly from the bullpen - Colten Brewer? Will he even be in Boston in April?

[dgalehouse]

What I would like explained to me is:

 

After acquiring Kimbrel, DD did some binge shopping for relievers with closing experience, acquiring Thornburg, Smith and Reed. But then after losing Kimbrel and Kelly from the bullpen - Colten Brewer? Will he even be in Boston in April?

I have pretty much used up everything I have to say about the bullpen situation. It is really getting repetitive. Anyway , the off season was a mystery to me . There were some quality bullpen arms , with closing experience , available for between eight and eleven mil per . A little creative maneuvering should have cleared enough space for that . We have two first basemen, three catchers and two utility infielders. Whatever. I guess they have a lot of faith in Barnes , Brasier , Hembree and Thornburg. We'll just have to see how it goes . I don't care for the idea of waiting until mid season and then trading prospects for a reliever .

[Slasher9]

the only real mystery was why pearce instead of RP?

once pearce got that $$$ (very early in the offseason) there was no more mystery as there was no $$ left for RP.

its about a budget. although some expect Henry to spend all his money on the Red Sox.....

[moonslav59]

I have pretty much used up everything I have to say about the bullpen situation. It is really getting repetitive. Anyway , the off season was a mystery to me . There were some quality bullpen arms , with closing experience , available for between eight and eleven mil per . A little creative maneuvering should have cleared enough space for that . We have two first basemen, three catchers and two utility infielders. Whatever. I guess they have a lot of faith in Barnes , Brasier , Hembree and Thornburg. We'll just have to see how it goes . I don't care for the idea of waiting until mid season and then trading prospects for a reliever .

 

It's a risk, for sure, but we did get Eovaldi for pretty cheap last year and Reed for cheap the year before.

 

It seems cheaper than a FA would cost.

[Bellhorn04]

the only real mystery was why pearce instead of RP?

once pearce got that $$$ (very early in the offseason) there was no more mystery as there was no $$ left for RP.

its about a budget. although some expect Henry to spend all his money on the Red Sox.....

 

It is a slight mystery about Pearce. Maybe they figured the 6.25 million they would have saved by not signing him wouldn't have gotten much in the way of a high quality reliever, so they might as well just throw stuff against the wall instead.

[notin]

the only real mystery was why pearce instead of RP?

once pearce got that $$$ (very early in the offseason) there was no more mystery as there was no $$ left for RP.

its about a budget. although some expect Henry to spend all his money on the Red Sox.....

 

 

Yeah I’ve railed about that one a few times.

 

I’m not even sure how much of an upgrade Pearce is over Chavis and/or Travis...

[Bellhorn04]

I’m not even sure how much of an upgrade Pearce is over Chavis and/or Travis...

 

1 WAR, I would think.

[notin]

1 WAR, I would think.

 

Maybe.

 

Pearce himself has only been worth 1 fWAR three times in a 12 year MLB career. But all 3 have come in the last 5 seasons.

 

But now that I think of it, Swihart might have been the right-handed platoon partner...

[moonslav59]

Pearce has actually hit RHPs better than Moreland, lately and could see more playing time this year. He can DH, when JD sits or plays the OF and might see some starts at 1B vs righties, too.

[notin]

Pearce has actually hit RHPs better than Moreland, lately and could see more playing time this year. He can DH, when JD sits or plays the OF and might see some starts at 1B vs righties, too.

 

If Pearce hits RHP better than Moreland, this is a recent development and probably a marginal difference. For his career, Pearce has a .743 OPS vs RHP, which is less than Moreland’s .780.

 

Pearce did have a .828 OPS vs RHP last year, but only in 130 plate appearances. Moreland hit his career .780 vs RHP last season.

 

I’d be hesitant to expect too much from Pearce. He’s a good bench bat/weak side platoon player, but the Sox are probably better off not expanding that role too much...

[moonslav59]

If Pearce hits RHP better than Moreland, this is a recent development and probably a marginal difference. For his career, Pearce has a .743 OPS vs RHP, which is less than Moreland’s .780.

 

Pearce did have a .828 OPS vs RHP last year, but only in 130 plate appearances. Moreland hit his career .780 vs RHP last season.

 

I’d be hesitant to expect too much from Pearce. He’s a good bench bat/weak side platoon player, but the Sox are probably better off not expanding that role too much...

 

Yes, it is marginal but more than just for a year or two. With Moreland being hobbled for two years in a row, Pearce is nice insurance.

 

Splits vs RHPs:

Year Pearce Moreland

2013 .749 .752

2014 .856 .692

2015 .765 .876

2016 .795 .700

2017 .767 .784

2018 .890 .780

 

Red= significant differential

 

2014-2018 vs RHPs

.802 Pearce

.774 Moreland

(+28 -A wider spread than "marginal.")

 

2016-2018

.789 Pearce (587 PAs)

.755 Moreland (1248)

(+34 -More than just "marginal.)

 

Pearce has not been below .765 vs RHPs for the last 5 years. Moreland has been below .701 in 2 of the last 5 years.

 

Edited March 4, 2019 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

Jenrry Mejia will lead the Red Sox in saves this year.

 

Or not.😋

 

Personally, I really hope not, but I wouldn't be surprised if he is.

[cp176]

Nobody should ever question Chris Sale's ability, fitness, work ethic, intensity or any of those things. But the evidence does suggest that he has 'durability' issues that are out of his control and that require his use to be managed carefully, don't you think?

 

Yes i do.

[cp176]

Yes i do.

 

I also think that there will be a lot of back and forth between Sale and the coaching staff. Nothing is nor should it be set in stone with respect to when he pitches. He listens to his body and I'm pretty sure he will tell his coaches what he hears.

[harmony]

FanGraphs columnist Jay Jaffe discusses Craig Kimbrel and the Red Sox:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-separate-paths-of-craig-kimbrel-and-the-red-sox/

[BillyWilliams]

I also think that there will be a lot of back and forth between Sale and the coaching staff. Nothing is nor should it be set in stone with respect to when he pitches. He listens to his body and I'm pretty sure he will tell his coaches what he hears.

 

As opposed to the other pitchers??!!

[Nick]

FanGraphs columnist Jay Jaffe discusses Craig Kimbrel and the Red Sox:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-separate-paths-of-craig-kimbrel-and-the-red-sox/

 

Great read.

 

It's unfortunate that Kimbrel was not free agent AFTER his stellar seasons in 2011-2014. I believe Sox went with his 2nd half stats/performance and did not want to gamble next 4-5 years on him. Kimbrel obviously is in decline.

 

"Save" is most meaningless stat.

[kenmeister]

Great read.

 

It's unfortunate that Kimbrel was not free agent AFTER his stellar seasons in 2011-2014. I believe Sox went with his 2nd half stats/performance and did not want to gamble next 4-5 years on him. Kimbrel obviously is in decline.

 

"Save" is most meaningless stat.

 

I do expect his second half decline to continue, but you never know!

[moonslav59]

I doubt the Sox would sign CK, even if he a had a great 2nd half of 2018.

[kenmeister]

I doubt the Sox would sign CK, even if he a had a great 2nd half of 2018.

 

They did make that $17.9 million qualifying offer.

[dgalehouse]

They did make that $17.9 million qualifying offer.

 

Making the qualifying offer entitles you to a draft pick . I think it was understood that it would be declined.

[dgalehouse]

Great read.

 

It's unfortunate that Kimbrel was not free agent AFTER his stellar seasons in 2011-2014. I believe Sox went with his 2nd half stats/performance and did not want to gamble next 4-5 years on him. Kimbrel obviously is in decline.

 

"Save" is most meaningless stat.

 

A " save " is what it is . Getting the final outs and closing out a win in a close , or relatively close , game . Meaningless stat or not , it is something that you need to have .

[Maxbialystock]

Some utterly simplistic thoughts about the bullpen and the absence of Kelly and likely absence of Kimbrel.

 

1. I looked at last year's regular season Red Sox stats, specifically the top 14 in WAR's: Sale, 6.9, Price 4.4, Porcello 3.1, ERod 3.0, Kimbrel 2.3, Wright 1.7, Velazquez 1.4, Brasier 1.5, Barnes 1.1, Workman .9, Eovaldi .8, Poyner .6, Hembree .5, and Kelly .5. I would preliminarily argue that the last year's bullpen did just fine with mostly those 14 and that Kelly--despite his great pitching in the postseason--won't be missed much.

 

2. Note also that the the rotation leads the parade in WAR value (unless your name is Pomeranz, whose WAR was -.5) for the pitching staff because they carry the load on innings. Thus the Sox (DD) investment in starters, especially Price, Porcello, and Sale.

 

3. As for Kimbrel, I have never been a big fan of his because he basically doesn't do windows, which means he rarely pitches in the 8th or comes in with men on base. On top of that, he expects a long-term contract. So me, I'm happy with taking the risk of losing him even though other teams are willing to spend heavily to have great bullpens--none, however, have yet met the demands of Kimbrel and his agent Dave Meter.

 

4. If Wright's knee holds up, he will make a huge difference in the bullpen which he demonstrated last year.

 

5. I agree I'm ignoring the current thinking about starters--try to keep them from facing a lineup more than three times in a game or even twice. Last year I wrote I was impressed with how the Rays manager did that by starting a reliever to get thru at least the top part of the order before bringing in his starter.

[kenmeister]

Making the qualifying offer entitles you to a draft pick . I think it was understood that it would be declined.

 

Sure but you have to wonder if Craig wishes he'd taken the deal now.

[notin]

Sure but you have to wonder if Craig wishes he'd taken the deal now.

 

 

Maybe, but I bet he’s turned down better deals since...

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe, but I bet he’s turned down better deals since...

 

Maybe even from the Hamfighters.

[moonslav59]

They did make that $17.9 million qualifying offer.

 

Knowing he'd say no.

 

Also, it's for 1 year not the 4-5+ he was seeking.