A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Consider this, last year after the AS break, Sale maybe started 6 games, the Sox finished the season with a fantastic 3.75 team ERA, in the AL, that's real good.

At this point, our team ERA at this point is, 4.30. A half run a game more, at this point.

I think not only BP in underachieving, but our starters too. Especially Sale.

I think McAdam was wrong about full run in last 45 days. I commented on this on the BSJ site. Hope he gets back to me.

 

Our pen is not underachieving. To date, it has done better than it should have, despite the high blown save totals that have led to 8 losses.

[dannycater]

On another note not the Pen, Also the St. Louis Blues fan had "heavy legs." The excuses now being made for young guys missing games is laughable. Yaz played with broken ribs, Evans with vertigo and concussions, Hobson with an arm kept together by super glue, Lynn rammed into a steel wall and still stayed in game 6, 75. Enough of the pampering Benintendi, the team needs its best players in the lineup, not Nunez at DH. Pathetic.

[notin]

On another note not the Pen, Also the St. Louis Blues fan had "heavy legs." The excuses now being made for young guys missing games is laughable. Yaz played with broken ribs, Evans with vertigo and concussions, Hobson with an arm kept together by super glue, Lynn rammed into a steel wall and still stayed in game 6, 75. Enough of the pampering Benintendi, the team needs its best players in the lineup, not Nunez at DH. Pathetic.

 

 

I think Allen Iverson is the all time leader in all professional sports for games played while wearing a cast. The guy had a bad rep for not practicing, but you couldn’t keep Iverson out of a game without tranquilizing him...

[Bellhorn04]

On another note not the Pen, Also the St. Louis Blues fan had "heavy legs." The excuses now being made for young guys missing games is laughable. Yaz played with broken ribs, Evans with vertigo and concussions, Hobson with an arm kept together by super glue, Lynn rammed into a steel wall and still stayed in game 6, 75. Enough of the pampering Benintendi, the team needs its best players in the lineup, not Nunez at DH. Pathetic.

 

Hobson probably shouldn't have been playing, though, considering the number of errors he had. And there are other examples of guys playing hurt and hurting the team by doing so. It's not always an easy call for a manager.

[Elktonnick]

Our pen is not underachieving. To date, it has done better than it should have, despite the high blown save totals that have led to 8 losses.

 

The whole point of relief pitching is not to make the situation worse. When a pitcher such as Matt Barnes has more blown saves than saves he isn't underachieving but failing. That not to say Barnes doesn't have a role but not the one he has been given.

 

The rap on Dombrowski long before he came to Boston has always been his inability to construct or build a bullpen. His performance this year has done nothing to change that.

[S5Dewey]

Our pen is not underachieving. To date, it has done better than it should have, despite the high blown save totals that have led to 8 losses.

 

Did you even read that before you posted it?

 

"Aside from those blown saves/8 losses they've done better than expected".

 

What were your expectations???? LOL

 

Aside from that nasty shooting the trip to Dallas was a rousing success!

Edited June 27, 2019 by S5Dewey

[moonslav59]

Did you even read that before you posted it?

 

"Aside from those blown saves/8 losses they've done better than expected".

 

What were your expectations???? LOL

 

Aside from that nasty shooting the trip to Dallas was a rousing success!

 

In my opinion, our pen has over achieved. They have done better than I expected. Maybe they have slightly more blown saves than I expected but way more good outings

[dgalehouse]

We are halfway through the season . The bullpen has about as many blown saves as they have actual saves . One of the worst , if not the worst , percentage in MLB.This indicates that they are having a lot of trouble holding a late lead and closing out the game . And that is the most important function of a bullpen. There is no getting around that .

[dgalehouse]

It is interesting how we always put the spotlight on Sox players for either success or failure . As if the other team did not enter into it at all . Examples : You hear : " Great at bat by Bogaerts ." You don't hear : " Herrera sucks ." Or the reverse . You hear : " Barnes sucks ." You don't hear : " Great at bat by Abreu ." It happens all the time . Folks , this is baseball . The opponent is getting paid too. And even teams like the Blue Jays and White Sox have some good players . It's not always about our guys .

[jacksonianmarch]

The bullpen overachieving is all about what you expected them to achieve. Did you expect them to replicate last year? Did you expect them to drop off? Many Kool Aid drinkers on this site said the sox "would be fine" with their pen. One by one, Walden, Barnes, Brasier and Workman are having good individual seasons. The problem comes about when they are used to procure close leads and it's become worse come June. The makeup of a pen is not about the individual parts. You could have one long reliever who is just getting bombed but you need a live body to absorb garbage time. They will skew the stats. The makeup of a pen is how they can take a close lead and finish the game. That is really when you need them. Going by the sox website...

 

Saves and Save opps

March 1 for 1

April 7 for 10

May 4 for 10

June 5 for 12

 

Now the stupid blown save stat counts anything I think beyond the 6th inning, but it could include any lead handed over. Not entirely sure. But it doesn't just incorporate the 9th inning. As it stands, per MLB.com, the sox are 17 for 33 in saves, leading to a 51.5% conversion rate. The big league average is 65.5%. Only the Mess at 48% are lower. The sox are 29th in save percentage. The sox have had the 8th most save opportunities in baseball, so considering that they have the second worst conversion rate yet have the 8th best amount of chances, this is why the pen is failing. I get the pen WAR and ERA is good. Heck, the sox pen ERA is a few points lower than the Yankees vaunted pen. But the Yanks convert 70% of their save chances in total and when we get to the 9th, we have a closer with a 92% conversion rate.

[dannycater]

It is interesting how we always put the spotlight on Sox players for either success or failure . As if the other team did not enter into it at all . Examples : You hear : " Great at bat by Bogaerts ." You don't hear : " Herrera sucks ." Or the reverse . You hear : " Barnes sucks ." You don't hear : " Great at bat by Abreu ." It happens all the time . Folks , this is baseball . The opponent is getting paid too. And even teams like the Blue Jays and White Sox have some good players . It's not always about our guys .

 

In Bad News Barnes defense, long at bat v. Abreu

[jacksonianmarch]

Another way to look at the save percentage question is to look at holds and blown saves. For the sake of reference, the Yankees have 29 saves. They have had 41 chances. But they've also had 62 holds. Consider a hold is a late and close situation as well and if you blow a hold, it's counted as a blown save. Therefore, adding holds and saves and then dividing by save opps and holds gives you a hold/save percentage of 88.3%.

 

Looking at the sox, they have 42 holds. A blown hold is a blown save, so if you count that, the sox hold/save percentage is 78.6%.

 

This number is essentially the chance that a pen pitcher handed a close lead is going to either finish the game with the lead or hand it off to someone else with the lead. 21.4% of the time the sox hand a lead to their pen, the pitcher they hand it to will blow the save. That's rather impressive.

[notin]

Of course not all Blown Saves are created equal. Barnes created his own mess yesterday and deserves the BS.

 

Colome,, on the other hand, came in to a second and third one out mess created by Jace Fry and then got screwed by his defense on a questionable decision by Rondon, retired the next hitter, and in the end just gave up the one hit. But he got a Blown Save just like Barnes...

[vegasbob]

When does Part 2 start ? Now , after 81 games and a crushing blow up for a loss, or later after the trade deadline? Part 1 is worn out from the lack of hot stove action, the listless ST, the opening 11 gamer on the road, and the general underperformance by a few key hitters, and one Ace who is more like a deuce.

 

Time for a new thread here, this one did not solve the issues confronting the Red Sox

[notin]

When does Part 2 start ? Now , after 81 games and a crushing blow up for a loss, or later after the trade deadline? Part 1 is worn out from the lack of hot stove action, the listless ST, the opening 11 gamer on the road, and the general underperformance by a few key hitters, and one Ace who is more like a deuce.

 

Time for a new thread here, this one did not solve the issues confronting the Red Sox

 

I imagine whenever someone feels like starting it...

[vegasbob]

I imagine whenever someone feels like starting it...

 

Moon is the leadoff hitter in this lineup.

[notin]

The whole point of relief pitching is not to make the situation worse. When a pitcher such as Matt Barnes has more blown saves than saves he isn't underachieving but failing. That not to say Barnes doesn't have a role but not the one he has been given.

 

The rap on Dombrowski long before he came to Boston has always been his inability to construct or build a bullpen. His performance this year has done nothing to change that.

 

 

While I agree that’s the rap on Dombrowski, it isn’t really fair. He’s had his years of bad bullpens but he was certainly involved in last year’s bullpen as well...

[vegasbob]

Not related to anything important, but the Pawsox have had 25 guys get AB's this year. Of those 25, the lowest (#21, 22, 23, 24th) were achieved by the following ( beware SSS) : Pedroia, Pearce, Nunez, Leon.

 

No wonder our farm system is bereft of talent.

[Bellhorn04]

Not related to anything important, but the Pawsox have had 25 guys get AB's this year. Of those 25, the lowest (#21, 22, 23, 24th) were achieved by the following ( beware SSS) : Pedroia, Pearce, Nunez, Leon.

 

No wonder our farm system is bereft of talent.

 

Not sure I understand what the first part has to do with the second.

[vegasbob]

Not sure I understand what the first part has to do with the second.

 

Key point missing was the "lowest BA/OPS's" . Sorry . The second point is not related, since the first point is pretty irrelevant to anything significant.

[moonslav59]

We are halfway through the season . The bullpen has about as many blown saves as they have actual saves . One of the worst , if not the worst , percentage in MLB.This indicates that they are having a lot of trouble holding a late lead and closing out the game . And that is the most important function of a bullpen. There is no getting around that .

 

It's also important to keep a team in a games for as long as 17 innings.

 

Also, if a game is tied when the pen takes over, there may end up being no save recorded, but a win is as good as a save in that situation. Saves and BS's do not capture those situations.

 

Also, if a starter lets up 7 runs in 2 innings, and the pen goes 6 innings with no ERs as the offense gives us a 1 run lead, I don't hold it against the pen, if it lets up 2 runs in the 9th for a BS and a loss. The starter went 2 IP with 7 ER and the pen went 7 IP with 2 ER, but all we hear about is how the pen sucks because of their BS amount.

 

Our pen has serious issues. I am not in denial, but they have done an excellent job way more than they have done poorly.

 

We have 8 losses due to blown saves, but we have over 20 wins due to good to excellent pen work.

 

Saves vs BS misses a lot.

[moonslav59]

Moon is the leadoff hitter in this lineup.

 

I was going to do one as we approach the trade deadline, but a trade is needed soon, so I'll get on it.

 

Batter up!

[notin]

I was going to do one as we approach the trade deadline, but a trade is needed soon, so I'll get on it.

 

Batter up!

 

 

You’re going to be declared out for refusing to bat, Mr. Rusie...

[dgalehouse]

There are a number of contending teams looking for bullpen help . We are not alone in that regard . There will be competition. Any " rebuilding " team with top tier bullpen help will certainly be looking for good , young players / prospects in return . Throwing in a couple of mediocrities does not really sweeten the pot . No rebuilding team wants or needs these kind of players .

[notin]

There are a number of contending teams looking for bullpen help . We are not alone in that regard . There will be competition. Any " rebuilding " team with top tier bullpen help will certainly be looking for good , young players / prospects in return . Throwing in a couple of mediocrities does not really sweeten the pot . No rebuilding team wants or needs these kind of players .

 

 

Sox best trade chip is Casas. Would you trade him for, say, Shane Greene?

 

Legitimate question...

[moonslav59]

There are a number of contending teams looking for bullpen help . We are not alone in that regard . There will be competition. Any " rebuilding " team with top tier bullpen help will certainly be looking for good , young players / prospects in return . Throwing in a couple of mediocrities does not really sweeten the pot . No rebuilding team wants or needs these kind of players .

 

I still think there will be more sellers than buyers, but some teams may trade for 2 RP'ers (like the Rays & Sox might).

 

I can't see why the price will be higher than we paid for Addison Reed and Eovaldi over the last 2 years, especially if we trade for a salary dump type pitcher or two.

 

We'll see.

[moonslav59]

Sox best trade chip is Casas. Would you trade him for, say, Shane Greene?

 

Legitimate question...

 

Me? No.

 

Maybe as a headliner for Wil Smith, but even then, I'd think long and hard about emptying out the farm further.

[notin]

Me? No.

 

Maybe as a headliner for Wil Smith, but even then, I'd think long and hard about emptying out the farm further.

 

So you deal Casas for 2 months plus of Will Smith (1.2 fWAR) but not for Shane Greene (0.7 fWAR), who is under contract for 2020 at $4mill?

[moonslav59]

So you deal Casas for 2 months plus of Will Smith (1.2 fWAR) but not for Shane Greene (0.7 fWAR), who is under contract for 2020 at $4mill?

 

I didn't know Greens had 1.5 years.

 

In thinking more about Smith, I'd say no, if Casas is needed.

[moonslav59]

Now, I realize Eovaldi was somewhat of a lucky acquisition, last year, but he only cost us Beeks.

 

Yes, I realize Beeks is doing very well, but realistically, what was his trade stock value last July?

 

My thought is D Hernandez or Duran should get us something better.

 

We should not need to part with Casas to get a couple solid RP'ers.

 

We may not even need to part with Casas, DHern or Mata.

 

Dalbec should get us a solid arm. Groome or Houck another.

 

Maybe we trade Chatham now that Bogey is locked up, although Chatham might be a future 2B low-cost, option.