A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

If he doesn’t get to a .700 OPS, he’s non-tender material. I’m not sure what the actual cutoff is, but I am sure it’s at least .700...

 

If the team's defensive value mechanisms show JBJ is slipping on defense, we may not tender JBJ, even if he ends up hitting well.

 

They may also be tired of the inconsistent offense that ends up being decent or okay by season's end.

 

Another strong playoff showing might be an influence.

 

(I think you're right. If he ends up at .700 or less, we will not offer him an arb. .725 might not be enough. $8-10M is a lot of money.

[notin]

If the team's defensive value mechanisms show JBJ is slipping on defense, we may not tender JBJ, even if he ends up hitting well.

 

They may also be tired of the inconsistent offense that ends up being decent or okay by season's end.

 

Another strong playoff showing might be an influence.

 

(I think you're right. If he ends up at .700 or less, we will not offer him an arb. .725 might not be enough. $8-10M is a lot of money.

 

Well according to multiple reports, JBJ was the most actively shopped Sox player this off-season.

 

He makes $8.85mill this year and likely more next year. One could question whether or not the Sox already felt the $8.85mill was too much.

 

He’ll be the Sox CF this year. Next year, he should be making closer to $10mill. He’s going to have to do something to show he’s worth that kind of money or else he probably gets non-tendered...

[moonslav59]

Well according to multiple reports, JBJ was the most actively shopped Sox player this off-season.

 

He makes $8.85mill this year and likely more next year. One could question whether or not the Sox already felt the $8.85mill was too much.

 

He’ll be the Sox CF this year. Next year, he should be making closer to $10mill. He’s going to have to do something to show he’s worth that kind of money or else he probably gets non-tendered...

 

If he does something with the bat to end up over .725, he may make more than $10M. If he ends up near .650, he may make less than $10M.

 

I'm not sure either scenario will be appealing to DD this winter.

[vegasbob]

If he does something with the bat to end up over .725, he may make more than $10M. If he ends up near .650, he may make less than $10M.

 

I'm not sure either scenario will be appealing to DD this winter.

 

Based on his first 43 G/163 PA's, resulting in a .531 OPS, he will need to OPS at about .870 for almost 2 months to reach OPS .700 by the A-s break. I really don't think his situation is resolvable until the Sox know where Betts lands and JDM's option choice is made. This tends to push Jackie to a non tender status if there is a chance he could get $10MM via arbitration. Maybe next year's super thread will be , "How did we lose Betts, Martinez, Porcello and Bradley" all at once ?

 

The most productive time in terms of potential value might be to try and move him at the trade deadline to a wannabe contender who has an injured OF'er or needs defense in late innings.

Edited May 25, 2019 by vegasbob

[Bellhorn04]

Based on his first 43 G/163 PA's, resulting in a .531 OPS, he will need to OPS at about .870 for almost 2 months to reach OPS .700 by the A-s break. I really don't think his situation is resolvable until the Sox know where Betts lands and JDM's option choice is made. This tends to push Jackie to a non tender status if there is a chance he could get $10MM via arbitration. Maybe next year's super thread will be , "How did we lose Betts, Martinez, Porcello and Bradley" all at once ?

 

The most productive time in terms of potential value might be to try and move him at the trade deadline to a wannabe contender who has an injured OF'er or needs defense in late innings.

 

Betts isn't a free agent until after 2020.

[vegasbob]

Betts isn't a free agent until after 2020.

 

You are correct. I was crying and sobbing so hard at the thought of losing any of these guys i forgot that Mookie would only become an FA after the 2020 season , but then I looked at the calendar and realized it would still be "next" year (2020), so it all made sense. Well, except for Porcello who needs to be resolved after this season, and JDM could pull out his option, although more likely look at that in 2020, unless his back is really bad in which case we will get to see his full contract. In any case, I don't expect to see JBJr in the long term future in Boston.

[Nick]

Devers quietly having a very good 22 year old season.

[MADSTORK]

Call Kimbrel

[fxkatt]

Devers quietly having a very good 22 year old season.

 

Devers, Chavis, and Vasquez. Pleasant surprises. And we have 6 pos. starters with OBPs from .362 to.405 and yet are only 27-25 and face Verlander tomorrow. We got to get all our good stuff working together before the upcoming Yankee series.

[moonslav59]

Call Kimbrel

 

...laugh loudly...then hang up on him!

[OH FOY]

8 in the loss column on the Yanks. Lots of games left, but geez, they have injuries all over the place, playing kids, and separating from the Sox. That's concerning. Some will say we have no Price, and Eovaldi, but they are without Severino and Paxton, and winning.

Tells me the importance of the BP.

Edited May 26, 2019 by OH FOY!

[jacksonianmarch]

Our pen has been good when we need it to, but so had the Sox pen. The difference for us is we are getting great offense out of our replacements and have gotten really good starting pitching out of our big replacement in German.

 

The crazy thing this injury fluke has created is trade buzz. Other teams are going to want these guys.

 

When Stanton and Judge return, I bet the Yanks send Frazier down to get regular ABs. When Didi returns, Estrada will head out to AAA to get regular AB’s. When CC, Severino, and Paxton return, who the hell knows what happens. No way we are sitting German or Tanaka. Happ probably goes to the pen, which would be a good thing for us to keep that third year from vesting.

[OH FOY]

Probably right, what it tells me is Teams strengths in the Farm. When teams have injuries and call-ups don't skip a beat, that's impressive.

[jacksonianmarch]

Our farm slipped in the rankings because backup options like Frazier and German lost rookie eligibility and Estrada was coming off a gunshot wound. Turns out all 3 would have been phenomenal assets and probably would have skyrocketed us into the top 10 due to ceiling and proximity.

[devildavid]

Sox offense is fine. The defense/pitching needs to get better. Otherwise they will be a Wild Card team at best. And they have to prove they are really better than teams like Oakland and Cleveland, which appear inferior but still find ways to win while the Sox seem to keep finding ways to lose.

[Nick]

Our pen has been good when we need it to, but so had the Sox pen. The difference for us is we are getting great offense out of our replacements and have gotten really good starting pitching out of our big replacement in German.

 

The crazy thing this injury fluke has created is trade buzz. Other teams are going to want these guys.

 

When Stanton and Judge return, I bet the Yanks send Frazier down to get regular ABs. When Didi returns, Estrada will head out to AAA to get regular AB’s. When CC, Severino, and Paxton return, who the hell knows what happens. No way we are sitting German or Tanaka. Happ probably goes to the pen, which would be a good thing for us to keep that third year from vesting.

 

Yankees are outscoring opponents just as Sox did last year.

 

We'll see if Betts has another gear in him this year to match last year's production. No way I'd pay $30M for non power bat.

 

A team can only carry so many non productive hitters. Read JBJ, Leon and Nunez today.

[Maxbialystock]

Appropriately--or so I think--there aren't many slings and arrows directed at Cora on this thread. Yes, during games, but that is usually reactionary.

 

Last night I thought Cora handled a tough situation--losing starter Price in the first inning--pretty darn well. He relied on the bullpen and they pretty much came through and didn't use his best guys at that. Also interesting is that he started Vazquez at DH, then pinch-hit for Leon, moved Vazquez to catcher, and thereafter had to pinch-hit for the pitcher, which proved not to be a problem.

 

The Sox lost in my opinion because, despite a fantastic rally by Devers, Chavis, JBJ, and the huge single by JBJ, the top of the order--Beni and Moreland--crapped out. And of course Barnes picked this outing to abase himself--lead off double, walk, walk, and hard hit single and no outs.

 

The manager is ultimately responsible for all wins and losses, but this year the hitting, pitching, and especially defense are all down from last year.

[dgalehouse]

Appropriately--or so I think--there aren't many slings and arrows directed at Cora on this thread. Yes, during games, but that is usually reactionary.

 

Last night I thought Cora handled a tough situation--losing starter Price in the first inning--pretty darn well. He relied on the bullpen and they pretty much came through and didn't use his best guys at that. Also interesting is that he started Vazquez at DH, then pinch-hit for Leon, moved Vazquez to catcher, and thereafter had to pinch-hit for the pitcher, which proved not to be a problem.

 

The Sox lost in my opinion because, despite a fantastic rally by Devers, Chavis, JBJ, and the huge single by JBJ, the top of the order--Beni and Moreland--crapped out. And of course Barnes picked this outing to abase himself--lead off double, walk, walk, and hard hit single and no outs.

 

The manager is ultimately responsible for all wins and losses, but this year the hitting, pitching, and especially defense are all down from last year.

 

Other than the manager , the hitting, the pitching and the defense ; all is working very well . The fact that we are now eight games behind the Yankees B - team is just a random fluke . We are breaking in a new , more modern system this year . It is working just fine , as long as you don't look at the scoreboard.

[Nick]

With the bullpen in need of some help after being heavily worked yesterday, the Red Sox today recalled LHP Darwinzon Hernandez, our no. 2 prospect, from @PortlandSeaDogs . RHP Colten Brewer optioned to @PawSox as the countermove.

 

I love it when a kid gets a chance.....Let the Darwinzon era start.

[OH FOY]

Kid got good stuff, just walks tons of batters, that get him in trouble. 25 BB's in 31 innings this year. Edited May 26, 2019 by OH FOY!

[vegasbob]

It's one thing for a reliever (Barnes) to get beat by decent hitting, but a whole other when they simply cannot throw a strike to a general location as displayed by the catcher. When in doubt, make the hitter execute. You will still get beat on occasion but you won't beat yourself with a drawn in infield because your throwing is wild.

[Nick]

We've found a gem in Marcus......and he's not limited to one inning.

[moonslav59]

With the bullpen in need of some help after being heavily worked yesterday, the Red Sox today recalled LHP Darwinzon Hernandez, our no. 2 prospect, from @PortlandSeaDogs . RHP Colten Brewer optioned to @PawSox as the countermove.

 

I love it when a kid gets a chance.....Let the Darwinzon era start.

 

Weird how they decide to demote Brewer after his best game with the Sox.

 

(I'm fine with the move.)

[Maxbialystock]

The rumor of the Sox demise just might be just that--a rumor. I certainly have griped with the best of them. But the Sox took 1 of 3 in Houston and actually outscored the Astros, 10 to 9, for the series. Still a whole lot of work to do, and goodness knows the Yankees are hot. But the Sox look anything but dead to me.

[Bellhorn04]

The rumor of the Sox demise just might be just that--a rumor. I certainly have griped with the best of them. But the Sox took 1 of 3 in Houston and actually outscored the Astros, 10 to 9, for the series. Still a whole lot of work to do, and goodness knows the Yankees are hot. But the Sox look anything but dead to me.

 

Max, as fans our spirits tend to rise and fall with wins and losses.

[Maxbialystock]

Max, as fans our spirits tend to rise and fall with wins and losses.

 

You're darn right, and I think it's a good thing. Better that than a ho hum, "nothing counts until September" attitude.

[Nick]

Weird how they decide to demote Brewer after his best game with the Sox.

 

(I'm fine with the move.)

 

I'm sure it's because of Holt coming back and Sox wanting to go with 12 pitchers and 13 position players...and they were hedging against E Rod coming up short.

 

BUT, when are we going to say goodbye to Thornburg? Does he have any upside left in him?

[oldtimer]

The rumor of the Sox demise just might be just that--a rumor. I certainly have griped with the best of them. But the Sox took 1 of 3 in Houston and actually outscored the Astros, 10 to 9, for the series. Still a whole lot of work to do, and goodness knows the Yankees are hot. But the Sox look anything but dead to me.

 

I agree. We are struggling with injures and illnesses to the starters. We were resting players at times, yet we still played well enough to come close and post a 1 for 3 record against the Astros. We have a ways to go but Price is coming right back and Eovaldi is also soon. It's not gloom and doom and we could well make a run at the top. we are in a bit of a hole but lets see how the next week plays out.

[moonslav59]

I'm sure it's because of Holt coming back and Sox wanting to go with 12 pitchers and 13 position players...and they were hedging against E Rod coming up short.

 

BUT, when are we going to say goodbye to Thornburg? Does he have any upside left in him?

 

I'm done with Thornburg, but it would be nice to see him prove me wrong.

 

I can understand keeping all your options on the table for as long as possible, but I have no hope for him.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm done with Thornburg, but it would be nice to see him prove me wrong.

 

I can understand keeping all your options on the table for as long as possible, but I have no hope for him.

 

Most people agree with Ted Williams that the most difficult skill in all sports is hitting a round ball with a round bat squarely. I happen to think a pitcher has to be able to throw hard, throw accurately--way more accurately than any knife thrower ever because none of them threw from 66 feet--and do both with a variety of spins.

 

That's my explanation for the rise and fall of pitchers, except for those few who are born with great control. It's also why starters, who throw 100 pitches per game--get the big bucks when they show some consistency.