A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Harper to Phillies for $330M/13.

 

No opt out.

 

Full no trade rights.

 

No deferrals.

 

Front loaded..

[oldtimer]

Harper to Phillies for $330M/13.

 

No opt out.

 

Full no trade rights.

 

No deferrals.

 

Front loaded..

 

Thats what it took to get him, but I think it was insanity to go to such a long term contract. This runs until he is 40. Big money front loaded and he almost certainly will drop way off in performance over the length of the contract. I'm glad we are not involved although this sets the tone for negotiations with Mookie. I'll be interested to get Kimmi's take on this one.

[Kimmi]

“He can hit,” Cora said. “Both of them. Dalbec, too. It’s good for them to be around here, talk to players and be around. Just keep getting better. They’re a big part of our organization moving forward.”

 

It'll be interesting to watch JBJ this year. Will his off season workout with JD/coach and subsequent swing adjustments pay off?

 

JD certainly appears to have provided benefits beyond his own performance to his teammates.

 

JD has done an excellent job of coaching/mentoring our young hitters, not to mention being a great role model in terms of his work ethic.

 

Dombrowski's finest hour.

[Kimmi]

Thats what it took to get him, but I think it was insanity to go to such a long term contract. This runs until he is 40. Big money front loaded and he almost certainly will drop way off in performance over the length of the contract. I'm glad we are not involved although this sets the tone for negotiations with Mookie. I'll be interested to get Kimmi's take on this one.

 

I have no words to describe the level of insanity that this contract reaches.

[Kimmi]

Updated projected standings from the big three:

 

Fangraphs - Yankees 98 wins, Astros 96 wins, Red Sox 95 wins, Cleveland 92 wins

 

Baseball Prospectus - Astros 98 wins, Yankees 97 wins, Cleveland 96 wins, Red Sox 90 wins

 

Davenport - Yankees 97 wins, Astros 96 wins, Red Sox 91 wins, Cleveland 90 wins

 

Like last year, we have the Yankees and the Astros right where we want 'em.

[moonslav59]

Thats what it took to get him, but I think it was insanity to go to such a long term contract. This runs until he is 40. Big money front loaded and he almost certainly will drop way off in performance over the length of the contract. I'm glad we are not involved although this sets the tone for negotiations with Mookie. I'll be interested to get Kimmi's take on this one.

 

Well, the first idea was $300+M/10, so the extra $30M for 3 years from ages 38-40 is not really horrible.

[moonslav59]

Updated projected standings from the big three:

 

Fangraphs - Yankees 98 wins, Astros 96 wins, Red Sox 95 wins, Cleveland 92 wins

 

Baseball Prospectus - Astros 98 wins, Yankees 97 wins, Cleveland 96 wins, Red Sox 90 wins

 

Davenport - Yankees 97 wins, Astros 96 wins, Red Sox 91 wins, Cleveland 90 wins

 

Like last year, we have the Yankees and the Astros right where we want 'em.

 

If you average the 3, they have CLE ahead of BOS. I know they play in a much easier division, but still...

[moonslav59]

Buchholz to sign for $3M with the Jays with $3M in incentives.

 

So much for the idea some had that he'd get a minor league deal and we should have tried to sign him.

[Slasher9]

Buchholz to sign for $3M with the Jays with $3M in incentives.

 

So much for the idea some had that he'd get a minor league deal and we should have tried to sign him.

 

i would have given him $3MM and given him a roster spot.

[moonslav59]

i would have given him $3MM and given him a roster spot.

 

We have something like $5.5M to spend.

 

Even $1M could keep us from getting the RP'er we need this summer.

[notin]

The

We have something like $5.5M to spend.

 

Even $1M could keep us from getting the RP'er we need this summer.

 

Getting the RP we need now might negate needing one later...

[moonslav59]

The

 

Getting the RP we need now might negate needing one later...

 

True, but getting on on a pro-rated contract should net us a better one, in theory.

[Slasher9]

True, but getting on on a pro-rated contract should net us a better one, in theory.

 

granted i am clay's biggest fan on the planet but i would rather we took a chance on him. he should come back home where he belongs.....

[Nick]

My guess would be Clay B wanted to be in the rotation. He had no chance to do that with the Sox.

[notin]

My guess would be Clay B wanted to be in the rotation. He had no chance to do that with the Sox.

 

 

But here he could have closed...

[kenmeister]

But here he could have closed...

 

I don't recall Clay being effective out of the bullpen*. Is my memory incorrect?

 

 

* much like my current concern about Brian Johnson

[S5Dewey]

I don't recall Clay being effective out of the bullpen*. Is my memory incorrect?

 

 

* much like my current concern about Brian Johnson

 

It doesn't matter. Anybody can close.

[moonslav59]

Making Buch the closer would be rolling the dice 2 times.

[notin]

It doesn't matter. Anybody can close.

 

 

I’d take Buchholz over a 31yo pitcher with a total of 33 IP in the past 5 seasons...

[moonslav59]

I’d take Buchholz over a 31yo pitcher with a total of 33 IP in the past 5 seasons...

 

I'd take a heck of a lot of other pitchers over Buch, including Brasier, Barnes, Hembree, Workman and maybe even Thornburg, if his health looks decent.

 

[S5Dewey]

I'd take a heck of a lot of other pitchers over Buch, including Brasier, Barnes, Hembree, Workman and maybe even Thornburg, if his health looks decent.

 

 

But this is what I don't understand. Nobody was talking about anointing Buch as "THE CLOSER" coming out of the gate. He'd just have been a viable - and relatively inexpensive - option if necessary. I even like him as a starter better than, say, Colton Brewer, and it't not unusual to go ten deep for a starter at some point in the season.

[harmony]

Clay Buchholtz was a free agent who could eliminate some of the 30 teams from consideration.

 

On the flip side, any of the 30 clubs could eliminate Buchholtz from consideration.

 

Perhaps the Red Sox were never in the running.

[Kimmi]

If you average the 3, they have CLE ahead of BOS. I know they play in a much easier division, but still...

 

We have Cleveland right where we want them too.

[Kimmi]

Buchholz to sign for $3M with the Jays with $3M in incentives.

 

So much for the idea some had that he'd get a minor league deal and we should have tried to sign him.

 

I think most of us recognized that he would likely get a major league contract with some team. All we were saying is that he would definitely be worth signing to a minor league deal. The fact that a team is willing to sign him to a major league deal makes the second sentence all that more valid.

[Kimmi]

i would have given him $3MM and given him a roster spot.

 

In.

[Kimmi]

granted i am clay's biggest fan on the planet but i would rather we took a chance on him. he should come back home where he belongs.....

 

In.

[Kimmi]

But here he could have closed...

 

I really find the idea of having Clay close intriguing.

[Bellhorn04]

Clay Buchholtz was a free agent who could eliminate some of the 30 teams from consideration.

 

On the flip side, any of the 30 clubs could eliminate Buchholtz from consideration.

 

Perhaps the Red Sox were never in the running.

 

Based on what he got from the Jays, I'm sure we weren't.

[Bellhorn04]

I really find the idea of having Clay close intriguing.

 

Wait till next year!

[Kimmi]

Wait till next year!

 

Maybe Clay will be a midseason Red Sox acquisition.