A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[BillyWilliams]

I think the Red Sox had one of the greatest seasons in baseball history with a roster full of extremely auspiciously aged stars, and Henry is committed to maximizing the potential of that situation. He has shown no indication otherwise - as I've noted above dealing Bogaerts this offseason would have made a ton of sense if he did.

 

I don't know what the exact plan they have is but I believe you are in the minority who think they would consistently carry a payroll that high.....

[moonslav59]

The tax rates that you incur in your third year exceeding the first threshold are as high as they go. There are no further increases in Year 4 and beyond.

 

Yes, but since we reset in 2017 and 2018, there will be an increase in 2019 and 2020- the two years we are talking about with Sale, Bogey and Betts, among others, coming due for their big paydays.

 

2018: 20%

2019: 30%

2020: 50%

 

That's just for going over the first line. Keeping everyone would certainly put us over the $20M line and likely the $40M line, too.

[sk7326]

I don't know what the exact plan they have is but I believe you are in the minority who think they would consistently carry a payroll that high.....

 

I don't think they will carry that payroll for an 83 win team. But for a historically great team in a business swimming in cash? I don't know. Winning baseball is good and entertaining.

 

I mean, the Sox did not go after Machado or Harper, because their internal options were just fine. So there are business cases for any move.

[moonslav59]

You are operating under assumptions and constraints which make sense ... but (based on their moves) might not align with the Red Sox front office and ownership.

 

I get that, and I have said my assumptions are no better than those who state Henry will agree to go over by $20M or $40+M indefinitely.

[notin]

I don't know what the exact plan they have is but I believe you are in the minority who think they would consistently carry a payroll that high.....

 

 

If Henry can spend $260mill and make $300mill, why wouldn’t he?

[Bellhorn04]

They told the media it was unrealistic that they could keep all of Sale, Bogey and Betts, so we know that much.

[notin]

They told the media it was unrealistic that they could keep all of Sale, Bogey and Betts, so we know that much.

 

 

As they are already negotiating (or trying to) with Sale and Bogaerts, does that mean they view Betts as the odd man out?

[notin]

I think the Red Sox had one of the greatest seasons in baseball history with a roster full of extremely auspiciously aged stars, and Henry is committed to maximizing the potential of that situation. He has shown no indication otherwise - as I've noted above dealing Bogaerts this offseason would have made a ton of sense if he did.

 

I believe Bogaerts, along with Porcello and Bradley, was made publicly available. There was no word on what following discussion transpired after this announcement, except that Bradley was the player DD tried hardest to move...

[moonslav59]

Even figuring adding $100M to that $173M and needing to pay 34 more players works out to roughly $2.9M/player

 

Do you think they carry a $273M payroll?

 

The 15 minor league players get next to nothing. The pre-arb MLB players make about $600-$800K each.

 

For 2019 & 2020 our pre-arb MLB players might be...

 

Devers

Johnson

Velazquez

Brasier

Lin

Poyner

Lakins

Feltman

 

For just 2019

Beni

 

That's 9 for 2019, plus we could add Chavis, Shawaryn, Dalbec or others.

 

We'd basically have to fill these roles:

 

Porcello (#3 starter)- Wright/Johnson/Velazquez?

 

1B (Pearce/Moreland)- Chavis/Dalbec (Devers from 3B)?

 

Utility (Holt/Nunez)- Swihart, Lin, Chatham, Chavis, Dalbec?

 

Maybe we need 3-4 decent free agents.

 

 

[mvp 78]

As they are already negotiating (or trying to) with Sale and Bogaerts, does that mean they view Betts as the odd man out?

 

No, it means they have control of Betts through 2020, but Xander and Sale are UFAs this November.

[moonslav59]

No, it means they have control of Betts through 2020, but Xander and Sale are UFAs this November.

 

It's about resetting or not.

 

If the plan is not to reset in the next 2 years, then yes, go for Bogey and Sale first and Betts next year.

 

If we are looking to reset after 2019 or 2020, then signing Bogey AND Sale would greatly lessen the chances we can keep Betts.

 

Note: just because we are looking extend Bogey and Sale, we may be thinking if one accepts, we'd not up the offer to the other in hopes of resetting and keeping Betts after 2020.

 

[notin]

There really are countless possibilities with many depending on the outcomes of others. But can the Sox keep Betts, Bogaerts and Sale without doing something drastic like trading Price?

[moonslav59]

There really are countless possibilities with many depending on the outcomes of others. But can the Sox keep Betts, Bogaerts and Sale without doing something drastic like trading Price?

 

Maybe, if they trade JBJ & Vaz (to replace Porcello?) , don't re-sign Porcello, Moreland, pearce, Nunez & Holt....

[dgalehouse]

Chris Sale was 12 - 4 last season . We could have replaced him with some jabroni who went 5-11 and still won the division. And Chris had a somewhat less than stellar post season . So we could have won without him there as well . Now , this is not to take anything away from Sale , who is a truly great pitcher. And it is by no means a suggestion to let him walk . It is merely an attempt to show how one can play around with numbers to " prove " even the most ludicrous statements .

[Bellhorn04]

Chris Sale was 12 - 4 last season . We could have replaced him with some jabroni who went 5-11 and still won the division. And Chris had a somewhat less than stellar post season . So we could have won without him there as well . Now , this is not to take anything away from Sale , who is a truly great pitcher. And it is by no means a suggestion to let him walk . It is merely an attempt to show how one can play around with numbers to " prove " even the most ludicrous statements .

 

Yes, but his fWAR was 6.5. That's exactly why we need the advanced metrics.

 

(I'm messing with you a bit.)

[kenmeister]

$33M Betts

$32M Sale

$31M Price

$24M Bogey

$23M JD

$14M Pedey

 

$158M for 6 players + $15M player benefits= $173M with 34 more guys to pay.

 

It won't be $300M, but we'd have to be over the max line to keep the rest of the roster good enough to compete (replace Porcello, find a 1Bman, pay for arb raises to JBJ, ERod, Barnes...)

 

 

Feels to me like the $30M+ contracts are unsustainable.

[dgalehouse]

Yes, but his fWAR was 6.5. That's exactly why we need the advanced metrics.

 

(I'm messing with you a bit.)

 

I get that . And I certainly don't mind being messed with for some of my off beat ideas . Still , after all is said and done , wins and losses are the bottom line . The advanced metrics and the other stats are really just a means of trying to understand how that bottom line was reached .

[moonslav59]

I get that . And I certainly don't mind being messed with for some of my off beat ideas . Still , after all is said and done , wins and losses are the bottom line . The advanced metrics and the other stats are really just a means of trying to understand how that bottom line was reached .

 

The team was 18-9 in his starts.

[mvp 78]

Feels to me like the $30M+ contracts are unsustainable.

 

Cable subscription and the price of a ticket aren't going down anytime soon.

[dgalehouse]

The team was 18-9 in his starts.

'

Okay . So , the team could have gone 11 - 16 in the aforementioned jabroni 's starts and still won the division.

[Bellhorn04]

'

Okay . So , the team could have gone 11 - 16 in the aforementioned jabroni 's starts and still won the division.

 

You can't do this, even theoretically, because there are so many other things could have changed as a result.

 

More innings pitched by relievers. A smaller cushion down the stretch resulting in less rest of key players. Et cetera.

[notin]

Maybe, if they trade JBJ & Vaz (to replace Porcello?) , don't re-sign Porcello, Moreland, pearce, Nunez & Holt....

 

 

The jury is still out as to whether Vazquez is on the team this year (although I strongly suspect he will be).

 

As for the others, I doubt Moreland, Pearce, Porcello, or Nunez are back at all unless the deal is insanely Sox-friendly. Holt has stated he wants to be a Red Sox for life, a statement undoubtedly made his agent spit up his milk. But certainly one that can be easily tested and accommodated.

 

DD was looking to move Bradley this off-season. Will one less year of Bradley be easier to trade a year from now? I guess that depends on how relevant he makes himself.

 

But here’s a thought to make YOU spit up your milk. What if, one year from now, the Sox deal Price to San Diego for Eric Hosmer? The Sox would gain about $13mill in AAV to help retain the core, and while Hosmer is paid heavily the first two years, after that he either opts out or makes $13mill salary for 4 seasons (equal to what the Sox are paying Moreland and Pearce). The Padres get some desperately needed SP for 3 years. Both players are owed roughly $93mill on their deals, assuming Hosmer doesn’t opt out. Also it frees up 1b for Josh Naylor in SD.

 

Too much lines up. Scared yet?

[kenmeister]

Cable subscription and the price of a ticket aren't going down anytime soon.

 

Neither is the luxury tax limit.

[moonslav59]

The jury is still out as to whether Vazquez is on the team this year (although I strongly suspect he will be).

 

As for the others, I doubt Moreland, Pearce, Porcello, or Nunez are back at all unless the deal is insanely Sox-friendly. Holt has stated he wants to be a Red Sox for life, a statement undoubtedly made his agent spit up his milk. But certainly one that can be easily tested and accommodated.

 

DD was looking to move Bradley this off-season. Will one less year of Bradley be easier to trade a year from now? I guess that depends on how relevant he makes himself.

 

But here’s a thought to make YOU spit up your milk. What if, one year from now, the Sox deal Price to San Diego for Eric Hosmer? The Sox would gain about $13mill in AAV to help retain the core, and while Hosmer is paid heavily the first two years, after that he either opts out or makes $13mill salary for 4 seasons (equal to what the Sox are paying Moreland and Pearce). The Padres get some desperately needed SP for 3 years. Both players are owed roughly $93mill on their deals, assuming Hosmer doesn’t opt out. Also it frees up 1b for Josh Naylor in SD.

 

Too much lines up. Scared yet?

 

Petrified!

 

Hosmer sucks, and last year only solidified my opinion.

 

Trade JBJ, Vaz & Johnson for Carrasco next year.

[dgalehouse]

You can't do this, even theoretically, because there are so many other things could have changed as a result.

 

More innings pitched by relievers. A smaller cushion down the stretch resulting in less rest of key players. Et cetera.

 

Okay . But you could say that about almost everything. There are always going to be many ifs , ands or buts.

[mvp 78]

Neither is the luxury tax limit.

 

The next MLBPA union fight will go to getting rid of the tax.

[mvp 78]

Okay . But you could say that about almost everything. There are always going to be many ifs , ands or buts.

 

So let's not talk about anything then.

[notin]

Petrified!

 

Hosmer sucks, and last year only solidified my opinion.

 

Trade JBJ, Vaz & Johnson for Carrasco next year.

 

The Guardians just extended Carrasco. They aren’t going to trade him for one year of JBJ, a replacement level catcher, and a pitcher who barely belongs in the majors...

[dgalehouse]

So let's not talk about anything then.

 

That's not the point. It's the ifs, ands or buts that make up most of the debate talking points. That is how it is supposed to be. And I am not really saying that we could have won it all without Sale . Just trying to make the point that you can find some numbers to support many different positions. Plain common sense would tell you that Sale was an integral part of the championship team .

[moonslav59]

The Guardians just extended Carrasco. They aren’t going to trade him for one year of JBJ, a replacement level catcher, and a pitcher who barely belongs in the majors...

 

I know.