A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Slasher9]

This off-season might also give JD Martinez pause in opting out. Not only has he already been victimized by a slow offseason once, but he will be 32 after the 2019. With 3 years and $62mill remaining, canhe really do better?

 

this is a great point.

no way he opts out. not a chance. well....unless he goes 50HR/1.000 OPS.

[Nick]

this is a great point.

no way he opts out. not a chance. well....unless he goes 50HR/1.000 OPS.

 

He's making $23.75M for BOTH 2019 and 2020. Then it drops to $19.375M for 2021 and 2022.

 

It makes more sense to opt out AFTER 2020.

[moonslav59]

It’s worth noting that an extension for Sale would push the Red Sox into the top luxury tax penalization bracket. Per Article

 

I disagree. Why not do what we did with Porcello? Sign the extension on April 1, 2019.

 

They did it with AGon, too.

[BillyWilliams]

MLBTR...

 

1:17pm: Werner and principal owner John Henry met with the Boston media today and indicated that they’ve not only discussed a long-term deal with Sale but also with Xander Bogaerts (link via the Globe’s Peter Abraham). Like Sale, Bogaerts is slated to become a free agent at the end of the 2019 season. The ownership reps noted that while they’d love to be able to keep each of Sale, Bogaerts and Mookie Betts in Red Sox uniform for the long haul, such a scenario probably isn’t realistic.

 

Perhaps of note, when asked about the last top-tier lefty the Sox had on the cusp of free agency, Henry candidly acknowledged that the Red Sox “blew it” when trying to work out an extension with Jon Lester prior to 2014 — Lester’s last in Boston.

 

Does that mean they expect to lose betts since they have talked extension with sale and xander and keeping all 3 is not realistic?

[Nick]

Does that mean they expect to lose betts since they have talked extension with sale and xander and keeping all 3 is not realistic?

 

Early bird gets the worm.

[Station 13]

He's making $23.75M for BOTH 2019 and 2020. Then it drops to $19.375M for 2021 and 2022.

 

It makes more sense to opt out AFTER 2020.

 

It seems a one time thing. If he doesn't opt out this year he can't for the remainder.

[cp176]

Does that mean they expect to lose betts since they have talked extension with sale and xander and keeping all 3 is not realistic?

 

Betts has made it fairly clear that he isn't interested in talking about this at this time. The other two have shown a desire to at least talk.

[Nick]

It seems a one time thing. If he doesn't opt out this year he can't for the remainder.

 

Nope

J.D. Martinez rf-dh

5 years/$110M (2018-22)

 

5 years/$110M (2018-22)

signed by Boston as a free agent 2/26/18

18:$23.75M, 19:$23.75M, 20:$23.75M, 21:$19.375M, 22:$19.375M

may opt out of contract after both 2019 ($2.5M buyout) and 2020 seasons (no buyout)

[BillyWilliams]

Betts has made it fairly clear that he isn't interested in talking about this at this time. The other two have shown a desire to at least talk.

 

So if they sign sale and xander betts is a goner?

[moonslav59]

So if they sign sale and xander betts is a goner?

 

Just because they are talking extension doesn't mean both or even 1 will extend.

 

I can't see how we reset, if we extend both this year.

 

I can't see keeping all 3, unless we reset after 2019, even then....

[Bellhorn04]

So if they sign sale and xander betts is a goner?

 

That's the way the report makes it sound, but the odds are so much against signing both Sale and Xander that it's all just fodder for the media. If you want a guess, mine is that if they were to extend one of Sale or Bogaerts, they won't extend the other because of Betts.

[cp176]

So if they sign sale and xander betts is a goner?

 

Who in the hell knows. if Betts wants to continue his career in Boston, I think though that he is going to have to give them at least a clue. if it becomes just an issue of making absolutely the most money he can make, then maybe it is best that he walks.

[Kimmi]

Interesting read...

 

Chris Sale and Extension Talks

 

IMO, we should offer him a 3 year extension, max. Raise the AAV if necessary.

[Kimmi]

I don't know it for sure - yet. But I'm comfortable predicting Harper gets at least $30 million more.

 

Speculation is that Harper is sure to get more than the $300 million offered to him by the Nats before the offseason.

[Kimmi]

David Price was 30 years old with 31.9 fWAR, 29.2 bWAR, 126 ERA+ and 3.09 ERA in 1,441.2 innings when the Red Sox signed the lefthander to a seven-year, $217 million contract.

 

Lefthander Chris Sale, who turns 30 next month, has posted 41.8 fWAR, 43.1 bWAR, 144 ERA+ and 2.89 ERA in 1,482.1 innings.

 

Perhaps the market has changed but Chris Sale will be expensive.

 

IMO, he will be too expensive for the Sox to keep.

 

Also IMO, he is a far greater injury risk than Price was as the time of his signing.

[Kimmi]

I'd prefer a 4 or 5 year deal, but he deserves 6+.

 

The opt out is probably the best way to go.

 

I'm not sure he'll get $33M, especially if he has health issues this year. An extension puts all the risk on the Sox, unless they come up with a "Lackey clause" to counter the opt out

 

When we are talking about 6+ year extensions for 30+ year old pitchers, I shudder.

[Kimmi]

In case anyone missed it, Henry finally admitted that the Sox messed up big time with Lester.

[vegasbob]

Even though the FA market is not yet settled for this year I think the current tenor of negotiations and slow signings will absolutely lead to a players strike after the current agreement expires. So 3 year or longer term contracts have a big IF factor in them . Owners won't be paying them but they will continue to age day by day . I'd give a walkout about a 98% certainty at this point.

[Bellhorn04]

Even though the FA market is not yet settled for this year I think the current tenor of negotiations and slow signings will absolutely lead to a players strike after the current agreement expires. So 3 year or longer term contracts have a big IF factor in them . Owners won't be paying them but they will continue to age day by day . I'd give a walkout about a 98% certainty at this point.

 

What's especially bad from the players viewpoint is that this CBA has nearly 4 full years left on it.

[notin]

In case anyone missed it, Henry finally admitted that the Sox messed up big time with Lester.

 

 

How big of him to point out other people’s mistakes. What’s his opinion of Miguel Cabrera’s contract?

[cp176]

So was it somehow Dombrowski's fault that Lester got away? Where have you been? We all know that that one is entirely on Luchino. lol

[notin]

So was it somehow Dombrowski's fault that Lester got away? Where have you been? We all know that that one is entirely on Luchino. lol

 

I misread that and thought is said "Dombrowski finally admitted they screwed up with Lester." That seemed like an odd thing for him to say, seeing as to hoe he was not even here at the time...

[cp176]

I misread that and thought is said "Dombrowski finally admitted they screwed up with Lester." That seemed like an odd thing for him to say, seeing as to hoe he was not even here at the time...

 

thus I could not help but bring up the Luchino thing once again because we all know that Cherington couldn't have had anything to do with that fiasco.

[Nick]

Cubs won a title. We won a title. I'm happy with our starting pitching. Everyone's happy.

[Larry Cook]

thus I could not help but bring up the Luchino thing once again because we all know that Cherington couldn't have had anything to do with that fiasco.

 

I still believe Larry was 100 percent responsible for us signing sandavol and Hanley.

 

But i believe it was Ben who drew the line in the sand on paying Lester. Henry is admitting he should not have listened to Ben.

 

I do not know who is holding the leash on desperate Dave, but someone is keeping him from signing kimbrel.

[cp176]

I still believe Larry was 100 percent responsible for us signing sandavol and Hanley.

 

But i believe it was Ben who drew the line in the sand on paying Lester. Henry is admitting he should not have listened to Ben.

 

I do not know who is holding the leash on desperate Dave, but someone is keeping him from signing kimbrel.

 

his comments from yesterday were telling . he wants to keep Chris Sale in a Sox uniform and considers him unique with respect to his age and the length of his contract. i like that very much.

[notin]

thus I could not help but bring up the Luchino thing once again because we all know that Cherington couldn't have had anything to do with that fiasco.

 

 

Ah but you came after the one guy who:

 

1) Thinks Cherington should own his mistake singular - Sandoval. (Hanley was a good player on a good d al. That he didn’t perform isn’t Cherington’s fault.)

2) Thinks Cherington deserves more credit for his success. I mean, we had to have the shortest rebuilding in MLB history, right?

3) Recognizes the insane and unparalleled success Larry Lucchino has had as a sports executive. The man has a Super Bowl ring, multiple World Series rings with multiple teams, and a Final Four watch. This is not all a coincidence or run of good luck, is it?

[oldtimer]

When we are talking about 6+ year extensions for 30+ year old pitchers, I shudder.

 

Hard to believe any pitcher 30 or over should be given a 6 year contract. The question is where do you draw the line? Is it 4 years or 5 years for someone who has been great?

[jacksonianmarch]

There’s no “leash” on DD. I’m sure Henry set a budget and DD is not going to surpass it without some sort of a special circumstance that DD would have to get approval for.

 

Where I’m confused this off-season is the Pearce and Eovaldi re-signings. Decent relievers who’d be high leverage guys in your current pen are signing for under $3mil. You could have added two of them if you let Pearce walk and at least made your pen respectable rather than the abject dumpster fire it is right now. Or, If the Sox went that route, Pearce would probably still be an FA and he’d be signing a MiLB deal with a decent guarantee.

 

For Eovaldi, he’s not the best arm on the market. He’s not better than Keuchel. Yet he signed for the AAV expected of Keuchel and DD put a 4th year out there before the market did anything. Now, DD gets his guy as he usually does, but he read the tea leaves wrong here. I think he could have gotten Eovaldi for a Lance Lynn deal $30/3 and have gotten Pearce for $2-$3 mil and he’d have $10 mil more to play with to fix the pen

[notin]

There’s no “leash” on DD. I’m sure Henry set a budget and DD is not going to surpass it without some sort of a special circumstance that DD would have to get approval for.

 

Where I’m confused this off-season is the Pearce and Eovaldi re-signings. Decent relievers who’d be high leverage guys in your current pen are signing for under $3mil. You could have added two of them if you let Pearce walk and at least made your pen respectable rather than the abject dumpster fire it is right now. Or, If the Sox went that route, Pearce would probably still be an FA and he’d be signing a MiLB deal with a decent guarantee.

 

For Eovaldi, he’s not the best arm on the market. He’s not better than Keuchel. Yet he signed for the AAV expected of Keuchel and DD put a 4th year out there before the market did anything. Now, DD gets his guy as he usually does, but he read the tea leaves wrong here. I think he could have gotten Eovaldi for a Lance Lynn deal $30/3 and have gotten Pearce for $2-$3 mil and he’d have $10 mil more to play with to fix the pen

 

I think you might have underestimated what Keuchel’s demands were. While probably lower now, he was reportedly looking for closer to a $22-25mill AAV. While he is better than Eovaldi, Eovaldi was the hot name at the time and getting better offers than the Lynn type deal already.

 

While signing Pearce and ignoring the pen seemed silly, I think Dombrowski is counting on his ability to build cheaper bullpens and has a long history of using inexperienced closers. I would not be surprised if he planned to avoid spending heavily on a closer from Day One. Whether or not you agree with this strategy, it is something he has done multiple times with multiple teams with mixed results, that obviously include some successes.

 

Not to mention, your thoughts at the time for Pearce was he would get multiple years at a much higher AAV. Maybe if the Sox had waited him out, he might have settled for a $2-3 mill deal. But even then, I don’t think DD was bringing in a new high salary closer. He seems to really like Brasier...

Edited February 19, 2019 by notin