A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

The Phillies have announced the trade, acquiring Realmuto in exchange for Alfaro, Sanchez, Stewart and international funds. It seems, then, that the bonus money was the fourth component of the deal, rather than an additional minor league talent.

 

I wonder if this means they may not get Machado or Harper.

 

For all the talk about Machado and/or Harper, the Phillies could probably just go sign Keuchel and Kimbrel together for the cost of one of those two players.

 

And it would be smarter - consider this.

 

Manny Machado through age 26 - 30.4 fWAr in 6 seasons.

Evan Longoria through age 26 - 28.6 fWAR in only 5 seasons

 

Afer his age 26 season, Longoria signed a 19-year %135mill contract.

 

Evan Longorai ages 27-33 - 19.7 fWAR

 

This kind of drop is what scares teams...

[Bellhorn04]

Hal Steinbrenner's comments about the exorbitant debt service costs on the new Yankee Stadium made me realize something:

 

It was sheer genius of the Henry group to realize they were much better off not building a new Fenway.

 

That may in fact be one of the reasons my signature line is what it is.

[moonslav59]

Hal Steinbrenner's comments about the exorbitant debt service costs on the new Yankee Stadium made me realize something:

 

It was sheer genius of the Henry group to realize they were much better off not building a new Fenway.

 

That may in fact be one of the reasons my signature line is what it is.

 

I totally agree, and the charm of Fenway is part of the whole mystique and tradition, despite the uncomfortable seating arrangement.

 

What really gets me is these small market teams that can barely put together a major league roster building costly, new stadiums, when moving to another city was probably a better idea.

[kenmeister]

Assuming all are healthy, here is maybe the pecking order for our opening day pen:

 

1. Barnes

2. Brasier

3. Wright (no options)

4. Hembree (no options)

5. Johnson (no options)

6. Thornburg (no options)

7. Workman (no options)

 

Our top 2 RP'ers both have 2 options, but those are of no use to us.

 

If we want to sign or trade for a RP'er, it would mean someone from this list would have to be traded, DL'd or DFA'd. We better get someone better than Workman & Thornburg (or Hembree - Johnson)

 

We also have these as depth, as of now:

 

Velazquez 2

Poyner 2

Brewer 2

Lakins 3

Walden 1

Shepherd 2

DHernandez 3

Josh Taylor 3

D Reyes 3

 

Not on 40 Man Roster

Shawaryn

Z Putnam

E Ramirez

Feltman AA

 

Okay, let's see if this is a serviceable bullpen.

 

Closer

Barnes - he should be fine

 

High Leverage Situations

Brasier - he should do fine

Thornburg - I have concerns (!)

 

Middle relief, clean inning

Hembree - This is his M.O.

Workman - He should do fine

 

Lefty

Johnson - I have concerns about his ability to adapt to the bullpen in general

 

Long relief

Wright - He should do fine

 

So basically, if Thornburg miraculously comes back to the player we thought he was, this bullpen should be fine. If he flames out, we need another guy like Brasier. Could that be Velazquez or Poyner?

[BillyWilliams]

Hal Steinbrenner's comments about the exorbitant debt service costs on the new Yankee Stadium made me realize something:

 

It was sheer genius of the Henry group to realize they were much better off not building a new Fenway.

 

That may in fact be one of the reasons my signature line is what it is.

 

How so?

[Bellhorn04]

How so?

 

Kind of obvious isn't it?

[jacksonianmarch]

Okay, let's see if this is a serviceable bullpen.

 

Closer

Barnes - he should be fine

 

High Leverage Situations

Brasier - he should do fine

Thornburg - I have concerns (!)

 

Middle relief, clean inning

Hembree - This is his M.O.

Workman - He should do fine

 

Lefty

Johnson - I have concerns about his ability to adapt to the bullpen in general

 

Long relief

Wright - He should do fine

 

So basically, if Thornburg miraculously comes back to the player we thought he was, this bullpen should be fine. If he flames out, we need another guy like Brasier. Could that be Velazquez or Poyner?

 

You’re making a lot of assumptions. Barnes has never closed. His talent suggests he should do fine, but some guys just cannot close. You won’t know until April whether he can.

 

Brasier should do fine? He’s got a half season track record of success (also bolstered by unsustainable ERA based on peripherals), is 31 years old and was recently in the Japanese minor league system. Assuming he’s going to be a fine setup man based on 30 innings or so is not sound. Maybe he is, but expecting him to be fine may leave you hoping.

 

Hembree’s MO is a clean inning? Lol. Hembree’s MO is lots of baserunners and lots of homers. But yeah, clean innings are his Mo, lol

 

Workman should do fine? He of the “I give up lots of homers and my FIP has never been below 4.3”. He’s a disaster waiting to happen in higher leverage spots.

 

The rest of your current big league options are a pile of s***. You’ve got some guys you hope adapt to new roles. You have other guys with track records of mediocrity or worse. You have other guys who just plain suck. The best thing the Sox can hope for is more of the same from Workman and Hembree, a good SU-CL combo and a kid taking the league by storm that nobody expects (Lakins, etc)

[dgalehouse]

Okay, let's see if this is a serviceable bullpen.

 

Closer

Barnes - he should be fine

 

High Leverage Situations

Brasier - he should do fine

Thornburg - I have concerns (!)

 

Middle relief, clean inning

Hembree - This is his M.O.

Workman - He should do fine

 

Lefty

Johnson - I have concerns about his ability to adapt to the bullpen in general

 

Long relief

Wright - He should do fine

 

So basically, if Thornburg miraculously comes back to the player we thought he was, this bullpen should be fine. If he flames out, we need another guy like Brasier. Could that be Velazquez or Poyner?

 

Famous last words : " He should be fine ."

[Nick]

You’re making a lot of assumptions. Barnes has never closed. His talent suggests he should do fine, but some guys just cannot close. You won’t know until April whether he can.

 

Brasier should do fine? He’s got a half season track record of success (also bolstered by unsustainable ERA based on peripherals), is 31 years old and was recently in the Japanese minor league system. Assuming he’s going to be a fine setup man based on 30 innings or so is not sound. Maybe he is, but expecting him to be fine may leave you hoping.

 

Hembree’s MO is a clean inning? Lol. Hembree’s MO is lots of baserunners and lots of homers. But yeah, clean innings are his Mo, lol

 

Workman should do fine? He of the “I give up lots of homers and my FIP has never been below 4.3”. He’s a disaster waiting to happen in higher leverage spots.

 

The rest of your current big league options are a pile of s***. You’ve got some guys you hope adapt to new roles. You have other guys with track records of mediocrity or worse. You have other guys who just plain suck. The best thing the Sox can hope for is more of the same from Workman and Hembree, a good SU-CL combo and a kid taking the league by storm that nobody expects (Lakins, etc)

 

I enjoy your posts but this is getting tiresome.

 

You're lot smarter than me but let me say this.

 

Yankees and Red Sox decided to spend their player salary in different areas. I'm just happy that Henry is willing to spend $243M.

 

With #1 offense and good starting pitching, we'll have big leads going into last three innings.

 

There will be excitement for sure, just as when Kimbrel was closing against the Yankees in the playoff series.

Edited February 8, 2019 by Nick

[BillyWilliams]

Kind of obvious isn't it?

 

Not really, the debt service cost hasn't really stopped the Yanks from having the top payroll in baseball for most of the time that henry has owned the sox.

[Bellhorn04]

Not really, the debt service cost hasn't really stopped the Yanks from having the top payroll in baseball for most of the time that henry has owned the sox.

 

It has helped reduced the gap...Hal is basically confirming that.

[BillyWilliams]

I enjoy your posts but this is getting tiresome.

 

You're lot smarter than me but let me say this.

 

Yankees and Red Sox decided to spend their player salary in different areas. I'm just happy that Henry is willing to spend $243M.

 

With #1 offense and good starting pitching, we'll have big leads going into last three innings.

 

There will be excitement for sure, just as when Kimbrel was closing against the Yankees in the playoff series.

 

So sox fans defending the bullpen doesn't get tiring?

[BillyWilliams]

It has helped reduced the gap...Hal is basically confirming that.

 

The gap was primarily reduced by other teams finally stepping up and spending more, not the Yanks spending less.........

[kenmeister]

You’re making a lot of assumptions. Barnes has never closed. His talent suggests he should do fine, but some guys just cannot close. You won’t know until April whether he can.

 

Brasier should do fine? He’s got a half season track record of success (also bolstered by unsustainable ERA based on peripherals), is 31 years old and was recently in the Japanese minor league system. Assuming he’s going to be a fine setup man based on 30 innings or so is not sound. Maybe he is, but expecting him to be fine may leave you hoping.

 

Hembree’s MO is a clean inning? Lol. Hembree’s MO is lots of baserunners and lots of homers. But yeah, clean innings are his Mo, lol

 

Workman should do fine? He of the “I give up lots of homers and my FIP has never been below 4.3”. He’s a disaster waiting to happen in higher leverage spots.

 

The rest of your current big league options are a pile of s***. You’ve got some guys you hope adapt to new roles. You have other guys with track records of mediocrity or worse. You have other guys who just plain suck. The best thing the Sox can hope for is more of the same from Workman and Hembree, a good SU-CL combo and a kid taking the league by storm that nobody expects (Lakins, etc)

 

What I meant by "middle relief, clean inning" are the relievers who are typically used to start an inning, not come in as a fireman. Hembree and Workman should be serviceable as 7th 8th inning guys who come on to start the inning. A disaster waiting to happen? Naw that's way too pessimistic.

 

But what I really object to is the "pile of s***" remark. I thought Velazquez and Poyner were both impressive last year.

[Bellhorn04]

The gap was primarily reduced by other teams finally stepping up and spending more, not the Yanks spending less.........

 

The Red Sox have been spending a vastly higher % of their revenue on payroll than the Yanks have in recent years. Hal is telling us why.

[FredLynn]

What I meant by "middle relief, clean inning" are the relievers who are typically used to start an inning, not come in as a fireman. Hembree and Workman should be serviceable as 7th 8th inning guys who come on to start the inning. A disaster waiting to happen? Naw that's way too pessimistic.

 

But what I really object to is the "pile of s***" remark. I thought Velazquez and Poyner were both impressive last year.

 

Thats just Jacko's wishful thinking about a franchise whose butt the Yankees have been sniffing for three years.

[sk7326]

Hal Steinbrenner's comments about the exorbitant debt service costs on the new Yankee Stadium made me realize something:

 

It was sheer genius of the Henry group to realize they were much better off not building a new Fenway.

 

That may in fact be one of the reasons my signature line is what it is.

 

It made me realize Hal Steinbrenner is a Scrooge

[BillyWilliams]

The Red Sox have been spending a vastly higher % of their revenue on payroll than the Yanks have in recent years. Hal is telling us why.

 

Is that really a recent phenomenon? I believe that the Yanks % of their revenue spent on payroll hasn't really changed all that much throughout the years. It's the other teams that have increased theirs.

[dgalehouse]

I think that as the players and many fans are becoming disgruntled over the ( real or perceived) lack of spending, the owners are becoming a little defensive . Steinbrenner complaining about the debt service now . The other day John Henry made the comment about how much money he was willing to lose , implying that he is losing money on the ballclub. That's a little hard to believe . To be fair , Henry and Steinbrenner have been the biggest spenders . And they deserve credit for not selling the naming rights to their ballparks. But it looks to me that labor trouble is brewing .

[Bellhorn04]

Is that really a recent phenomenon? I believe that the Yanks % of their revenue spent on payroll hasn't really changed all that much throughout the years. It's the other teams that have increased theirs.

 

I'm quite sure the Yankees % has gone down. Don't have time to look it up right now though.

[moonslav59]

You’re making a lot of assumptions. Barnes has never closed. His talent suggests he should do fine, but some guys just cannot close. You won’t know until April whether he can.

 

Brasier should do fine? He’s got a half season track record of success (also bolstered by unsustainable ERA based on peripherals), is 31 years old and was recently in the Japanese minor league system. Assuming he’s going to be a fine setup man based on 30 innings or so is not sound. Maybe he is, but expecting him to be fine may leave you hoping.

 

Hembree’s MO is a clean inning? Lol. Hembree’s MO is lots of baserunners and lots of homers. But yeah, clean innings are his Mo, lol

 

Workman should do fine? He of the “I give up lots of homers and my FIP has never been below 4.3”. He’s a disaster waiting to happen in higher leverage spots.

 

The rest of your current big league options are a pile of s***. You’ve got some guys you hope adapt to new roles. You have other guys with track records of mediocrity or worse. You have other guys who just plain suck. The best thing the Sox can hope for is more of the same from Workman and Hembree, a good SU-CL combo and a kid taking the league by storm that nobody expects (Lakins, etc)

 

There is some hope for Workman:

 

.747 OPS against career is not great, but...

 

.535 2 outs w RISP

 

.708 medium leverage (.794 High)

 

and Hembree...

 

.746 OPS against, career

 

.654 Med Leverage

.734 High Leverage

 

.654 Late & Close

 

Both should only be in medium leverage situations most of the time.

 

[sk7326]

For all the talk about Machado and/or Harper, the Phillies could probably just go sign Keuchel and Kimbrel together for the cost of one of those two players.

 

And it would be smarter - consider this.

 

Manny Machado through age 26 - 30.4 fWAr in 6 seasons.

Evan Longoria through age 26 - 28.6 fWAR in only 5 seasons

 

Afer his age 26 season, Longoria signed a 19-year %135mill contract.

 

Evan Longorai ages 27-33 - 19.7 fWAR

 

This kind of drop is what scares teams...

 

Longoria is not a very good example - injuries kicked in for him. That is a fair question for Harper - Machado has been very durable. Any contract can go bad - but as far as playing the percentages go, 26 year olds are a pretty good breed.

 

I bet the Rays would do that again given the information they had then 10 times out of 10 - not all good ideas work.

[sk7326]

Is that really a recent phenomenon? I believe that the Yanks % of their revenue spent on payroll hasn't really changed all that much throughout the years. It's the other teams that have increased theirs.

 

Yankees spend 29% of their revenue on players - 29th in the league (or thereabouts). A way to tell that it has gone down is that their payroll has not increased at the rate of the revenue influxes. Also - like the Sox - they own their own media property, which involves money which might not even be tracked properly. I mean they are getting a cut of the take on Brooklyn Nets games too.

 

The Yankees will ALWAYS be able to afford more players than other teams - their revenue is just much much higher. But they are choosing to pocket a lot of that - and pay for the stadium which is obviously forcing Hal to turn to payday loans.

[sk7326]

The gap was primarily reduced by other teams finally stepping up and spending more, not the Yanks spending less.........

 

The Yankees spend 29% ... the Red Sox and Dodgers spend closer to 50% (at least based on last Forbes report). It's cute that the Yankees treat the luxury tax tiers as a salary cap - but it's their choice, they can afford any of these big players.

[BillyWilliams]

The Yankees spend 29% ... the Red Sox and Dodgers spend closer to 50% (at least based on last Forbes report). It's cute that the Yankees treat the luxury tax tiers as a salary cap - but it's their choice, they can afford any of these big players.

 

But haven't the sox and the dodgers greatly increased their percentages over the years?

[sk7326]

But haven't the sox and the dodgers greatly increased their percentages over the years?

 

The Dodgers with their new ownership got an enormous TV deal - their revenue jumped. The Red Sox have always been pretty generous. Now is more aggressive than they have been - but it's always been pretty good. The Yankees thing is really funny to me. They are loaded - and there is a chance to make a significant improvement in the infield in a position where the marginal wins are incredibly valuable, and all it costs is money. And yet, they sit out and their fans seem way too okay with that. Now I still think there is a 30% chance they sign Machado because who knows - but it's striking.

[dgalehouse]

I am not a financial expert. And , to me , the financial side of baseball is the least interesting part of the game . The owners are very , very , very wealthy . We all know that . An MLB franchise is a very lucrative investment. It does appear that some owners are more willing than some others to spend money on the ballclub . As for the Yankees , it seems to me that George was more gung ho to spend whatever it took to win championships. Hal is more bottom line oriented.

[notin]

Whether or not the Yankees are spending 30%, 50%, or 75% of their revenue is immaterial. They’re still among the highest paying teams in the league just about every year and NOT the problem with these new abysmally slow tightwad off-seasons...

[moonslav59]

I think a lot of people assumed the Yanks & Dodgers reset their tax last year, so they could go large this year, and that at least one of them would nab Machado or Harper.

 

(They still might, if the price is right.)

[sk7326]

Whether or not the Yankees are spending 30%, 50%, or 75% of their revenue is immaterial. They’re still among the highest paying teams in the league just about every year and NOT the problem with these new abysmally slow tightwad off-seasons...

 

of course they are. They are not the only problem - the Phillies are in some ways worse - but sure they are a problem.