A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I hope Pedroia either goes back to hitting .290 or is unable to play. It will be a tougher situation if he hits .250 with little power but is capable of playing every day.

 

Depends on his defense too.

[BillyWilliams]

If the sox catchers are so great at receiving/game calling/pitch framing while having (according to sox fans) a much stronger staff than the Yanks, why was the staff ERA difference just .03 last year?

 

Surely these superhuman catchers should have been able to coax better out of a staff with 2 former Cy Young winners (price & porcello), a perennial contender (sale) and a closer with one of the lowest ERA's in history through 500 innings (kimbrel).

[notin]

But, it did show a willingness to release Swihart.

 

I think the main reason Swihart is still around is that the state of catching in MLB is just so damn poor. He has shown flashes of hope here and there, and maybe they hoped he'd build value by doing well after HRam was cut. It didn't really happen, but he hasn't really lost value either.

 

My guess is we either trade Swihart as a small part of a package for RP'er, or we keep him until we know about Pedey.

 

 

But according to you, Swihart is more part of the problem with MLB-caliber catching than part of the solution.

 

If Pedroia can’t go, they might keep Swihart. But I think in that case, a capable backup SS or backup OF is probably more important to this team than a third catcher who can also play the corners in a pinch. A back up SS/OF would be ideal. (Lin?). Also at one point this off-season, Cora reportedly wanted a defensive 3b on the roster. Now as Cora is likely aware of the existence of both Holt and Nunez, he presumably wants someone else.

 

I’d like to see them deal Swihart for a RP, but I wonder what they can get (Tayron Guerrero?). I almost think any decent reliever you add Swihart to the package for can probably be had for the same package without him. If the Sox want a defensive SS/3b other than Lin, they might use him to pry someone like Miguel Rojas or JT Riddle out of Miami...

[Bellhorn04]

If the sox catchers are so great at receiving/game calling/pitch framing while having (according to sox fans) a much stronger staff than the Yanks, why was the staff ERA difference just .03 last year?

 

Surely these superhuman catchers should have been able to coax better out of a staff with 2 former Cy Young winners (price & porcello), a perennial contender (sale) and a closer with one of the lowest ERA's in history through 500 innings (kimbrel).

 

Sox starters ERA 3.77

Yankee starters ERA 4.05

 

Sox bullpen ERA 3.72

Yankee bullpen ERA 3.38

 

Sox had better starters, Yankees had better bullpen. Anyone who says we had a 'much stronger staff' was being somewhat of a homer, I'd say.

 

Our advantage in the starters really showed up in the ALDS.

 

Sale being out as long as he was hurt our numbers a bit.

[notin]

Depends on his defense too.

 

And OBP...

[dgalehouse]

Swihart is the best athlete of the three . So far , that has not translated into his being the best ballplayer . I think there is still some thought in Sox management that he might do it this year . Hence , the reluctance to trade him . Now , if Pedroia comes back , somebody has to go . Either Holt , Nunez or one of the catchers . Pretty sure it won't be Holt . But that is what has to happen when you keep two first basemen. Stay tuned.

[moonslav59]

I hope Pedroia either goes back to hitting .290 or is unable to play. It will be a tougher situation if he hits .250 with little power but is capable of playing every day.

 

His defense doesn't have to be great to be better than a hobbled Nunez. Holt is not great on D at 2B.

 

I'm hoping we don't have to find another Kinsler this year.

[moonslav59]

If the sox catchers are so great at receiving/game calling/pitch framing while having (according to sox fans) a much stronger staff than the Yanks, why was the staff ERA difference just .03 last year?

 

Surely these superhuman catchers should have been able to coax better out of a staff with 2 former Cy Young winners (price & porcello), a perennial contender (sale) and a closer with one of the lowest ERA's in history through 500 innings (kimbrel).

 

Remember how you Yankee fans said our pen sucked last year?

 

Maybe the catchers brought them up to top 10.

 

Price is getting older and is not the same pitcher he was with the Rays- that's not our catcher's fault.\

 

Sale is doing better with the Sox than the CWS.

 

 

[moonslav59]

But according to you, Swihart is more part of the problem with MLB-caliber catching than part of the solution.

 

Yes, and I said the hope was he'd improve. It wouldn't take much improvement for Swihart to go from maybe the 60th best catcher out of maybe 70 to 40th or 50th best- making him better than some teams' back-up catcher and maybe a little sought after.

 

I've never said I expect much in trade for Swihart.

 

If Pedroia can’t go, they might keep Swihart. But I think in that case, a capable backup SS or backup OF is probably more important to this team than a third catcher who can also play the corners in a pinch. A back up SS/OF would be ideal. (Lin?). Also at one point this off-season, Cora reportedly wanted a defensive 3b on the roster. Now as Cora is likely aware of the existence of both Holt and Nunez, he presumably wants someone else.

 

I'd rather have Lin than Swihart on my 25 man roster, hence my mantra on trading Swihart.

 

 

I’d like to see them deal Swihart for a RP, but I wonder what they can get (Tayron Guerrero?). I almost think any decent reliever you add Swihart to the package for can probably be had for the same package without him. If the Sox want a defensive SS/3b other than Lin, they might use him to pry someone like Miguel Rojas or JT Riddle out of Miami.

 

It depends if any team thinks Swihart is good enough to make their 25 man roster. If not, he adds no value, since he is out of options.

[notin]

I prefer Lin over Swihart as well, as he can back up SS has an option left if Pedroia can play.

 

But as for who wants Swihart, the best bet might be Miami if they ever trade Realmuto without getting back a catcher. If Swihart was their catcher and cost them a few games with atrocious defense, what’s the impact? They win 45 games instead of 50? He gets booed by a couple dozen hometown fans? They can afford to play him and see how much potential he lives up to, if any...

[moonslav59]

I prefer Lin over Swihart as well, as he can back up SS has an option left if Pedroia can play.

 

But as for who wants Swihart, the best bet might be Miami if they ever trade Realmuto without getting back a catcher. If Swihart was their catcher and cost them a few games with atrocious defense, what’s the impact? They win 45 games instead of 50? He gets booed by a couple dozen hometown fans? They can afford to play him and see how much potential he lives up to, if any...

 

I agree 100%. Miami has some nice RP'ers, so I can't help but think (hope) we can expand the deal and get someone who can actually help the pen. It doesn't have to be a closer, but we need someone to fill in to the roles Barnes and Brasier had as they move to newer more important roles.

 

Miami might be the team most likely to want prospects, even farther away ones, than any other team.

[notin]

I agree 100%. Miami has some nice RP'ers, so I can't help but think (hope) we can expand the deal and get someone who can actually help the pen. It doesn't have to be a closer, but we need someone to fill in to the roles Barnes and Brasier had as they move to newer more important roles.

 

Miami might be the team most likely to want prospects, even farther away ones, than any other team.

 

 

One might think so.

 

But as myself and others have noted, they traded away the 2017 NL MVP and the 2018 NL MVP and still have one of, if not the worst farm system in MLB. So trading for prospects might not be working out as planned.

 

Also it depends on who you’re trading for. Streckenrider? Certainly they will want prospects. Tayron Guerrero? I think he’s a good trade comp for Swihart. And as his fastball rivals Kelly’s, he had at least one ability DD is known for liking in a pitcher...

[moonslav59]

One might think so.

 

But as myself and others have noted, they traded away the 2017 NL MVP and the 2018 NL MVP and still have one of, if not the worst farm system in MLB. So trading for prospects might not be working out as planned.

 

Also it depends on who you’re trading for. Streckenrider? Certainly they will want prospects. Tayron Guerrero? I think he’s a good trade comp for Swihart. And as his fastball rivals Kelly’s, he had at least one ability DD is known for liking in a pitcher...

 

I was thinking Adam Conley. Maybe we can trade Velazquez, Ockimey and Swihart for Conley (or maybe Conley & Guerrero).

[notin]

I was thinking Adam Conley. Maybe we can trade Velazquez, Ockimey and Swihart for Conley (or maybe Conley & Guerrero).

 

Conley is another option. He is a first year arb guy, so he might see his price tag escalate on them. He converted to relief last year and his fastball jumped 6mph (which is not uncommon).

 

I am not so sure they’re wild about Ockimey, since they passed on him when he was free last month. And Velasquez is the rare case whose more valuable to Boston than other teams, due to his option. But I’m sure the teams could work something out. My only concern is why did Conley move to relief? Was it due to arm injuries?

 

Let’s say they insist on Dalbec for Conley? Would you do it? Would you do Dalbec and Swihart for Conley and Guerrero? I also wonder if they’d have any interest in former Florida Gator and Cocoa Beach native Brian Johnson...

Edited January 29, 2019 by notin

[moonslav59]

Conley is another option. He is a first year arb guy, so he might see his price tag escalate on them. He converted to relief last year and his fastball jumped 6mph (which is not uncommon).

 

I am not so sure they’re wild about Ockimey, since they passed on him when he was free last month. And Velasquez is the rare case whose more valuable to Boston than other teams, due to his option. But I’m sure the teams could work something out. My only concern is why did Conley move to relief? Was it due to arm injuries?

 

Let’s say they insist on Dalbec for Conley? Would you do it? Would you do Dalbec and Swihart for Conley and Guerrero? I also wonder if they’d have any interest in former Florida Gator and Cocoa Beach native Brian Johnson...

 

They passed on Ockimey as a mandated 25 man roster player. They may like him as a project for future possibilities.

 

I'd offer Velazquez or Johnson.

 

They may want Swihart, if they trade Realmuto.

 

I'd probably trade Chavis straight up for Conley, but I'd try to make it Chavis & Swihart for Conley & Guerrero.

 

(I'd probably settle on Dalbec, if they insisted.)

 

I'm not an expert on Conley. I'm just looking at his numbers, and he looks promising. I trust Sox management to know more than I do about his chances of helping in 2019.

Edited January 29, 2019 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

I don't think catcher offense or projected catcher offense improvement will be the deciding factor on who to keep.

 

I do think Vaz and Swihart have a much better chance of being decent hitters than Leon, but to me, Leon's numbers with Sale & Price are just too good to mess with this year.

 

To me, Vaz is clearly better than Swihart, so my choice is made. The only reason I'd trade Vaz is to free up budget space for a better RP'er, but even then, I don't want Leon catching more than he did last year, and I don't want Swihart catching much at all.

 

The word on Swihart is that his defense at catcher has improved and started to show toward the end of the season. If his defense is solid, then you have a player who may hit better and defend well enough to be a reasonable alternative to Leon. We shall see as the story unfolds in spring training.

[moonslav59]

The word on Swihart is that his defense at catcher has improved and started to show toward the end of the season. If his defense is solid, then you have a player who may hit better and defend well enough to be a reasonable alternative to Leon. We shall see as the story unfolds in spring training.

 

I really don't have as much faith in ST'ing as you do. We'll have 3 catchers or more splitting time, and they often will be facing scrubs and wanna-bees. Swihart could go 15 for 20, and it wouldn't change my opinion.

 

"Defend well enough" is a subjective term. IMO, Swihart has a very very long way to go on defense to come close to Leon, particularly Leon with Sale & Price.

 

How much better would Swihart have to hit, if he caused the pitchers he caught to have an ERA 0.25 higher than had they been with Leon? How about 0.50? 0.75 or more?

 

It's too risky for my liking.

 

Even the drop off from Leon to Vaz with Sale and Price is scary enough.

 

BTW, do you have a link where anyone important said Swihart's D improved last year?

[Kimmi]

I actually think our catchers are a major factor in our success. The catcher position may be the most valuable position per dollar on the team.

 

I realize, I'm probably in the minority on thinking how a catcher's relationship with the staff is extremely important. It is also hard to measure, and for a stat guy like me to hold a position like this, I realize I'm opening myself up for criticism.

 

I know other catchers are as good as our two in these areas, but there would be a learning curve, if we made a change, and I'm not sure we can afford to wait out a learning curve period. Every game counts.

 

To think 3-4 offensive PAs by our catcher in any game is more important than the 30-40 PAs our catcher helps try to make an out from behind the plate is missing the big picture (not that you are missing anything).

 

 

I agree with this. Our pitchers feel comfortable with and have confidence in Leon and Vazquez. It's not something I would mess with.

 

As they gain more experience with our pitchers and just in general, I think they will only get better.

 

Again, I don't care about their offense, or lack thereof.

[Kimmi]

First of all, our catching situation is fine in the context of we don't need any offense from that position.

 

But all of you are STUPID thinking somehow Leon and Vazquez are some magicians behind the plate.

 

Both Sale and Price were elite pitchers BEFORE they came to Boston. Who caught them? Certainly not Leon and Vazquez.

 

Some of you make Sandy out to be the greatest defensive catcher in this century. You're joke if you think that.

 

We don't need to fix our catching position because we are very strong at other positions.

 

Move on.

 

 

Did you just call me stupid?

[Kimmi]

Also, no burn is given to the possibility of improvement, which the sox are saying Swihart has made in the past year. Moon tends to look at long term numbers, which undervalues those who are improving. It looks to me as though we have 3 competent catchers on the roster and have to decide who sticks based on hitting and trade value. Leon has little of that because he doesn't hit, while its up in the air for Swihart and Vaz possibly will show better hitting. The plan may be to go through spring training with 3 and see which 2 we want to keep.

 

I say keep all three and let Swihart be a super utility type. Of course, Cora would need to give him the playing time.

[Kimmi]

Do you think Leon can catch over 120 games effectively?

 

If Yes, are you okay with Swihart catching 30-40 games a year? (He does okay with ERod, but who else would he catch?)

 

If no, how about Swihart catching 50-70 games this year? (IMO, "YUCK! comes to mind very quickly!)

 

Swihart might just be pretty good behind the plate. Unfortunately, he hasn't had enough playing time recently to know what we have with him. For me, depending on Swihart to do a large amount of catching is too risky.

[Bellhorn04]

Swihart might just be pretty good behind the plate. Unfortunately, he hasn't had enough playing time recently to know what we have with him. For me, depending on Swihart to do a large amount of catching is too risky.

 

Swihart needs a team that isn't in contention, that can give him a chance to learn on the job. As notin says, the Marlins might be a possible landing spot.

[Kimmi]

Swihart needs a team that isn't in contention, that can give him a chance to learn on the job. As notin says, the Marlins might be a possible landing spot.

 

I would tend to agree.

 

He just doesn't get the playing time here that he needs to develop any kind of consistency.

[moonslav59]

 

Did you just call me stupid?

 

And, some call us condescending.

 

 

[cp176]

And, some call us condescending.

 

 

 

 

Moon - I think that it is just you. Anyone who apologizes when someone makes the condescending accusation like you often do, is not condescending. I don't always agree with you for sure but I don't see condescend when I think of you.

With respect to our catchers - no I do not think that they are as valuable as you might think but I think that that is ok. they don't present much of an issue though. If we keep them fine and if we don't keep them all, I'm pretty sure that the effects felt will be minimal.

what we can agree with I hope is that anyone with a baseball brain realizes how difficult the position is and although it would be nice to have a catcher that could hit just a little it isn't essential. When people constantly drone on about how much they value catching defense as opposed to offense - now that I do think is condescending. The assumption seems that they know something that the rest of us don't and that is just wrong. We all get it and we all feel the same way.

[moonslav59]

Moon - I think that it is just you. Anyone who apologizes when someone makes the condescending accusation like you often do, is not condescending. I don't always agree with you for sure but I don't see condescend when I think of you.

With respect to our catchers - no I do not think that they are as valuable as you might think but I think that that is ok. they don't present much of an issue though. If we keep them fine and if we don't keep them all, I'm pretty sure that the effects felt will be minimal.

what we can agree with I hope is that anyone with a baseball brain realizes how difficult the position is and although it would be nice to have a catcher that could hit just a little it isn't essential. When people constantly drone on about how much they value catching defense as opposed to offense - now that I do think is condescending. The assumption seems that they know something that the rest of us don't and that is just wrong. We all get it and we all feel the same way.

 

Most people that have played serious baseball know the value catcher defense and pitcher -catcher comfort. Even some who never played can see how important it is.

 

I understand, I may place too much value on catcher intangibles, and I certainly place more value than some here, and I'm fine with that.

 

Sometimes, I feel like I can't win. At times, I'm accused of being too stat geeky enough to understand the nuances or areas of the game not captured by data. Here's an area I feel strongly about with very little to no significant data available to back myself up, and I still can't win. (Not that winning is what I'm here for)

 

I know I sometimes say things in ways that sound authoritarian or matter of factly, when there are other sides to the issue and valid arguments against my positions. It might help, if I wrote, "in my opinion..." more often, but I guess I just assume everything everyone says is just an opinion.

 

I know there are a heck of a lot of people who know more about this great game of baseball than I do, and I'm sure some are right here on this site... many of whom I'm sure I have disagreed with from time to time.

 

All this being said, I'd love to have a solid catcher that could also hit, or at least hit better than ours did last year, but I still think ours are a net plus- not great, but a little better than average overall.

 

[Nick]

 

Did you just call me stupid?

 

Nah, I'd be little more subtle than that....

[cp176]

Most people that have played serious baseball know the value catcher defense and pitcher -catcher comfort. Even some who never played can see how important it is.

 

I understand, I may place too much value on catcher intangibles, and I certainly place more value than some here, and I'm fine with that.

 

Sometimes, I feel like I can't win. At times, I'm accused of being too stat geeky enough to understand the nuances or areas of the game not captured by data. Here's an area I feel strongly about with very little to no significant data available to back myself up, and I still can't win. (Not that winning is what I'm here for)

 

I know I sometimes say things in ways that sound authoritarian or matter of factly, when there are other sides to the issue and valid arguments against my positions. It might help, if I wrote, "in my opinion..." more often, but I guess I just assume everything everyone says is just an opinion.

 

I know there are a heck of a lot of people who know more about this great game of baseball than I do, and I'm sure some are right here on this site... many of whom I'm sure I have disagreed with from time to time.

 

All this being said, I'd love to have a solid catcher that could also hit, or at least hit better than ours did last year, but I still think ours are a net plus- not great, but a little better than average overall.

 

 

Moon you are ok. The job of catching is the most difficult job on the field. It is one of the most demanding positions frankly in all of sports. Hitting is clearly secondary to all of the other things that good catchers do. I never caught but I coached a whole bunch of good ones and they are a coach on the field. If they are good - really good- I could care less whether they could hit or not. We have two competent catchers who have done a great job. The debate here isn't what our catchers have done it really is just about whether what they have done has been that much better than what others might be able to do. Keeping them both really isn't an issue . I'm just not sure that losing one of them would be that big a deal either.

[moonslav59]

Moon you are ok. The job of catching is the most difficult job on the field. It is one of the most demanding positions frankly in all of sports. Hitting is clearly secondary to all of the other things that good catchers do. I never caught but I coached a whole bunch of good ones and they are a coach on the field. If they are good - really good- I could care less whether they could hit or not. We have two competent catchers who have done a great job. The debate here isn't what our catchers have done it really is just about whether what they have done has been that much better than what others might be able to do. Keeping them both really isn't an issue . I'm just not sure that losing one of them would be that big a deal either.

 

I guess you have more faith in Swihart than I do. To me, he's a big drop off from Leon and Vaz, and if we traded Vaz, he'd probably catch 50-70 games. I can't see Leon lasting much over 100 games. If we traded Leon, maybe we could limit Swihart to 30-40 games, but are we getting a good RP'er for Leon?

 

I think not, so just keep 'em both.

[Larry Cook]

So, why would any of the other 29 teams give up more than a bucket of used baseballs for any of our three catchers?