A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[SoxnCycles]

There's no way in hell kimbrel signs for 2/24.

 

What are you smoking?!

 

That's fine with me. Let him walk.

[mvp 78]

So what does that deal look like?

 

5/60

[jacksonianmarch]

Slav, you seem to forget how good Severino was for 4 months of the year. He still ended up top 10 in the CY. That's two consecutive top 10 finishes (he was 3rd in 2017). He is WAYYY better than Price. Price saw a velo drop and a HR rate rise. He was effectively persona non grata in Mass until he had two good starts in the playoffs. And in terms of WAR, he was tied with Porcello for 2nd in your rotation. Now clearly, if I am to rank a staff, I should assume Sale is healthy. That being said, we don't know if he is. If he is not healthy, this is a Yankee win 1-5 by a long shot. If he is healthy, then the edge goes to the sox. I don't think you guys truly understand how ridiculous Sale has been the last two seasons. His numbers are ridiculous and his 2018 was trending to be a Pedro like year before he went down. He is the entire reason for the difference between the 2 staffs. If he goes from 7WAR to 2WAR, the Yanks have this.

 

1. Chris Sale- the guy posted a 6.5WAR in 27 starts. He missed the 200IP mark for the first time since 2014. He also found a way to keep the ball in the yard, which was his one real bugaboo. If he is healthy and posts a full year with the same peripherals as the last two seasons, nobody can question his ranking atop here 2018 WAR 6.5

 

2. Luis Severino- yes, he gets maligned for the way he has finished the last 2 seasons. There are thoughts that he is pitch tipping since his velocity and stuff haven't changed. Batters just seem to catch on to his 100mph heat, lights out slider and dynamite change after the ASB. My guess is he reverts to old habits as the season wears on. If he can finish the season the way he starts them, he will be challenging Sale for the top spot. As it stands, he posted a 5.8WAR 2017 and a 5.7WAR 2018. That's 3WAR higher than Price in 2018 and Sevy turns 25 in 2019, while Price turns 34. How can you possibly rank Sevy behind Price? 2018 WAR 5.7

 

3. James Paxton- Paxton has had some bad luck while also being a late bloomer, but it doesn't take away from what has been 2 great performances in injury shortened seasons. In 2017, he threw 136IP until arm soreness plus the Mariners being out of it shut him down. Last year, he set a career high in IP and starts yet missed time due to being hit in the arm by a comebacker. His stats prior to being hit were insane. He just turned 30 yrs old. He has stuff for days. He's a lefty in Yankee Stadium. Assuming he can avoid getting hit by a comebacker, he has the highest ceiling of the pitchers left on this list. And even if he has an injury shortened campaign, his ridiculous peripherals will still rank him ahead of the rest of your staff 2018 WAR 3.8

 

4. JA Happ- the knock on him is age, and that is clearly a concern, but Happ has found the fountain of youth of sorts. He has found some slight added velocity and has found a way to significantly improve his K rate while continuing to show a low walk rate. His bugaboo like Price's last year was the HR and in YS, that isn't likely to decrease. But look at the rest of the guys on the list and find me someone more consistent than Happ. Over the last 4 seasons, he has thrown between a 2.8-3.4 WAR with 30 or more starts in 3 of those 4 seasons. I would give the edge to Porcello due to age, but Happ has outperformed him on almost all levels the past two seasons. 2018 WAR 3.2

 

5. Rick Porcello- There is something to be said for consistency. Rick has started 27 or more games 10 years in a row now. That is baffling. Outside of one career season and 3 seasons where he was bad, he has posted between a 2.1-2.9WAR in 6 of those years including 2 straight. He is what he is. He's gonna have a low 4's ERA. He is going to have a K rate somewhere in the 7.5-9/9IP. He's going to have a high HR rate. He's going to have a sub 2.4/9IP walk rate. He is what he is. 2018 WAR 2.7

 

6. David Price- It's kinda weird that 3 pitchers between our squads posted an identical WAR (Porcello, Price and Tanaka), but I am putting Tanaka slightly behind Price for reasons I will detail later. Price showed he was healthy this year beyond the Mr. Tingles garbage and his bugaboos against the Yankees. He started 30 games and 5 more in the post season. He didn't have his pre-injury velocity or pre-injury endurance, though, with his IP/start average down below 6 for the first time since his rookie season (outside of the 2017 injury shortened season). His HR rate spiked to a career high. But his K rate held solid above 9, his walk rate stayed strong in the mid 2's and he was able to be effective despite some lost stuff. I think a lot of people are looking at what he did vs Houston (the second time) and vs LA and forgetting that he was an above average starter. Not an ace by any means, but an above average starter for 2018 and with him closing in on 34 yrs old and already seeing a velo drop, the days of him being an ace are gone. But he is serviceable and more a #3 starter these days than a #2. 2018 WAR 2.7

 

7. Masahiro Tanaka- Tanaka has been interesting since he came to NY. He broke onto the scene as a fireballer with amazing stuff, then tore his UCL. When he came back, he was throwing differently. Less 4 seamers, more 2 seamers, sliders, and splitters. He is the quintessential junkballer, throwing far more pitches with movement than he does straight pitches. Usually, that translates into soft contact, but Tanaka hangs too many pitches and this boom or bust style pitching is why I put him behind Price and Porcello. His HR rate is nearly 1 every 6 innings, which is far too frequent. Yet his K/BB ratio is better than the above 2 pitchers on this list, that HR rate posits an ERA in the low 4's. Now Tanaka is the better post season pitcher over his career. His post season numbers are absolutely silly and he may even elevate to our ace once fall comes, but over 162, I have him behind Price and Porcello. 2018 WAR 2.7

 

8. Eduardo Rodriguez- Talk about boom or bust. Eduardo has the stuff of a top of the rotation pitcher yet the approach of a lamb. His K rate is 4th among out 10 rotation spots behind only Sale, Paxton and Severino. He found a way to limit the walks in 2018 down to 3.12/9IP. He still gives up the HR at a big rate. His issue is he cannot seem to shake lower body injuries. He has missed time 3 years in a row with lower body issues and his body shape has only increased as he has gotten a bit older. If he comes into camp in great shape and can avoid the lower body issues, he could rise into the top 4 between our rotations. If he continues to have issues, then he will stay back here. 2018 WAR 2.3

 

9. Nathan Eovaldi- Tantalizing stuff and finally a post season of the ages puts Eovaldi in a weird position. His regular season stats have always lagged behind the big fastball and slider. He added a cutter, but he still couldn't crack a big IP/start number in 2018. Maybe he does so in 2019? He has had his elbow reconstructed twice, which is a rare event for most pitchers. He looked good at seasons end. Can he avoid his boom or bust tendencies? Will his K rate remain strong, as his history shows he gives up way more contact than a guy with his stuff should? I think a lot of people are overrating him based on one month's production. I have seen Eovaldi be absolutely dominant for a month in a Yankee uniform. Only to follow that up with a dud. He could reach the top of these rankings if he hits, but as a guy who has rooted for him and watched him be maddeningly inconsistent with the kind of stuff and command he possesses. He will need to prove he can harness it for more than a month and be healthy to be anything more than your 5th starter to me. 2018 WAR 2.2

 

10. CC Sabathia- That is assuming he can actually play. He is obese and just had a stent put into a coronary artery. He is going to need to clear cardiac rehab before he can play or run and if he cannot run come ST, then he won't be in shape enough to pitch as a starter. Assuming he does, CC continued a career renaissance and the type of clubhouse presence that helped our pitching staff as the season went along. That being said, CC has thrown 27 or more starts 4 years in a row and somehow has found a way to still strike batters out and generate one of the lowest exit velocities against in the game. But he turns 39 in season and just had a coronary stent. My guess is we see CC, maybe Gray and maybe one of the kids in this spot. Who knows. Hence why this spot has to be 10. CC outperformed ERod and Eovaldi in WAR last year, but I cannot predict that going forward. Whatever we get is gravy. 2018 WAR 2.5

 

The interesting thing about the rotations is the Yanks out-WARed the sox last year 17.9-16.4. With CC down and maybe Gray in or one of the kids, we could do better or worse. Heck, watch Sonny Gray come in and be the balls in his contract year and walk away after the year with double middle fingers up while he goes off and signs in Milwaukee.

Edited January 8, 2019 by jacksonianmarch

[Nick]

Slav, you seem to forget how good Severino was for 4 months of the year. He still ended up top 10 in the CY. That's two consecutive top 10 finishes (he was 3rd in 2017). He is WAYYY better than Price. Price saw a velo drop and a HR rate rise. He was effectively persona non grata in Mass until he had two good starts in the playoffs. And in terms of WAR, he was tied with Porcello for 2nd in your rotation. Now clearly, if I am to rank a staff, I should assume Sale is healthy. That being said, we don't know if he is. If he is not healthy, this is a Yankee win 1-5 by a long shot. If he is healthy, then the edge goes to the sox. I don't think you guys truly understand how ridiculous Sale has been the last two seasons. His numbers are ridiculous and his 2018 was trending to be a Pedro like year before he went down. He is the entire reason for the difference between the 2 staffs. If he goes from 7WAR to 2WAR, the Yanks have this.

 

1. Chris Sale- the guy posted a 6.5WAR in 27 starts. He missed the 200IP mark for the first time since 2014. He also found a way to keep the ball in the yard, which was his one real bugaboo. If he is healthy and posts a full year with the same peripherals as the last two seasons, nobody can question his ranking atop here 2018 WAR 6.5

 

2. Luis Severino- yes, he gets maligned for the way he has finished the last 2 seasons. There are thoughts that he is pitch tipping since his velocity and stuff haven't changed. Batters just seem to catch on to his 100mph heat, lights out slider and dynamite change after the ASB. My guess is he reverts to old habits as the season wears on. If he can finish the season the way he starts them, he will be challenging Sale for the top spot. As it stands, he posted a 5.8WAR 2017 and a 5.7WAR 2018. That's 3WAR higher than Price in 2018 and Sevy turns 25 in 2019, while Price turns 34. How can you possibly rank Sevy behind Price? 2018 WAR 5.7

 

3. James Paxton- Paxton has had some bad luck while also being a late bloomer, but it doesn't take away from what has been 2 great performances in injury shortened seasons. In 2017, he threw 136IP until arm soreness plus the Mariners being out of it shut him down. Last year, he set a career high in IP and starts yet missed time due to being hit in the arm by a comebacker. His stats prior to being hit were insane. He just turned 30 yrs old. He has stuff for days. He's a lefty in Yankee Stadium. Assuming he can avoid getting hit by a comebacker, he has the highest ceiling of the pitchers left on this list. And even if he has an injury shortened campaign, his ridiculous peripherals will still rank him ahead of the rest of your staff 2018 WAR 3.8

 

4. JA Happ- the knock on him is age, and that is clearly a concern, but Happ has found the fountain of youth of sorts. He has found some slight added velocity and has found a way to significantly improve his K rate while continuing to show a low walk rate. His bugaboo like Price's last year was the HR and in YS, that isn't likely to decrease. But look at the rest of the guys on the list and find me someone more consistent than Happ. Over the last 4 seasons, he has thrown between a 2.8-3.4 WAR with 30 or more starts in 3 of those 4 seasons. I would give the edge to Porcello due to age, but Happ has outperformed him on almost all levels the past two seasons. 2018 WAR 3.2

 

5. Rick Porcello- There is something to be said for consistency. Rick has started 27 or more games 10 years in a row now. That is baffling. Outside of one career season and 3 seasons where he was bad, he has posted between a 2.1-2.9WAR in 6 of those years including 2 straight. He is what he is. He's gonna have a low 4's ERA. He is going to have a K rate somewhere in the 7.5-9/9IP. He's going to have a high HR rate. He's going to have a sub 2.4/9IP walk rate. He is what he is. 2018 WAR 2.7

 

6. David Price- It's kinda weird that 3 pitchers between our squads posted an identical WAR (Porcello, Price and Tanaka), but I am putting Tanaka slightly behind Price for reasons I will detail later. Price showed he was healthy this year beyond the Mr. Tingles garbage and his bugaboos against the Yankees. He started 30 games and 5 more in the post season. He didn't have his pre-injury velocity or pre-injury endurance, though, with his IP/start average down below 6 for the first time since his rookie season (outside of the 2017 injury shortened season). His HR rate spiked to a career high. But his K rate held solid above 9, his walk rate stayed strong in the mid 2's and he was able to be effective despite some lost stuff. I think a lot of people are looking at what he did vs Houston (the second time) and vs LA and forgetting that he was an above average starter. Not an ace by any means, but an above average starter for 2018 and with him closing in on 34 yrs old and already seeing a velo drop, the days of him being an ace are gone. But he is serviceable and more a #3 starter these days than a #2. 2018 WAR 2.7

 

7. Masahiro Tanaka- Tanaka has been interesting since he came to NY. He broke onto the scene as a fireballer with amazing stuff, then tore his UCL. When he came back, he was throwing differently. Less 4 seamers, more 2 seamers, sliders, and splitters. He is the quintessential junkballer, throwing far more pitches with movement than he does straight pitches. Usually, that translates into soft contact, but Tanaka hangs too many pitches and this boom or bust style pitching is why I put him behind Price and Porcello. His HR rate is nearly 1 every 6 innings, which is far too frequent. Yet his K/BB ratio is better than the above 2 pitchers on this list, that HR rate posits an ERA in the low 4's. Now Tanaka is the better post season pitcher over his career. His post season numbers are absolutely silly and he may even elevate to our ace once fall comes, but over 162, I have him behind Price and Porcello. 2018 WAR 2.7

 

8. Eduardo Rodriguez- Talk about boom or bust. Eduardo has the stuff of a top of the rotation pitcher yet the approach of a lamb. His K rate is 4th among out 10 rotation spots behind only Sale, Paxton and Severino. He found a way to limit the walks in 2018 down to 3.12/9IP. He still gives up the HR at a big rate. His issue is he cannot seem to shake lower body injuries. He has missed time 3 years in a row with lower body issues and his body shape has only increased as he has gotten a bit older. If he comes into camp in great shape and can avoid the lower body issues, he could rise into the top 4 between our rotations. If he continues to have issues, then he will stay back here. 2018 WAR 2.3

 

9. Nathan Eovaldi- Tantalizing stuff and finally a post season of the ages puts Eovaldi in a weird position. His regular season stats have always lagged behind the big fastball and slider. He added a cutter, but he still couldn't crack a big IP/start number in 2018. Maybe he does so in 2019? He has had his elbow reconstructed twice, which is a rare event for most pitchers. He looked good at seasons end. Can he avoid his boom or bust tendencies? Will his K rate remain strong, as his history shows he gives up way more contact than a guy with his stuff should? I think a lot of people are overrating him based on one month's production. I have seen Eovaldi be absolutely dominant for a month in a Yankee uniform. Only to follow that up with a dud. He could reach the top of these rankings if he hits, but as a guy who has rooted for him and watched him be maddeningly inconsistent with the kind of stuff and command he possesses. He will need to prove he can harness it for more than a month and be healthy to be anything more than your 5th starter to me. 2018 WAR 2.2

 

10. CC Sabathia- That is assuming he can actually play. He is obese and just had a stent put into a coronary artery. He is going to need to clear cardiac rehab before he can play or run and if he cannot run come ST, then he won't be in shape enough to pitch as a starter. Assuming he does, CC continued a career renaissance and the type of clubhouse presence that helped our pitching staff as the season went along. That being said, CC has thrown 27 or more starts 4 years in a row and somehow has found a way to still strike batters out and generate one of the lowest exit velocities against in the game. But he turns 39 in season and just had a coronary stent. My guess is we see CC, maybe Gray and maybe one of the kids in this spot. Who knows. Hence why this spot has to be 10. CC outperformed ERod and Eovaldi in WAR last year, but I cannot predict that going forward. Whatever we get is gravy. 2018 WAR 2.5

 

The interesting thing about the rotations is the Yanks out-WARed the sox last year 17.9-16.4. With CC down and maybe Gray in or one of the kids, we could do better or worse. Heck, watch Sonny Gray come in and be the balls in his contract year and walk away after the year with double middle fingers up while he goes off and signs in Milwaukee.

 

Nice write up....I appreciate it. I will keep it simple.

 

As I get older, I simply go for individual's ceilings. What's his best? You have to assume the player is 100% healthy.

 

I'm just excited for our rotation. The ceiling is high for this unit. I did back flips when we signed Eovaldi. I'm a gambler by nature. I like the five cards dealt to me.

[BillyWilliams]

When has the pen become more important than the rotation?

 

Here's how I rank the rivals' starters:

 

1. Sale

2. Price

3. Severino

4. Paxton

5. Porcello

6. Tanaka

7. Eovaldi

8. ERod

9. Happ

10. Sabathia

 

Best Hitters

1. Betts

2. JD

(Machado)

3. Judge

4. Stanton

5. Bogey

6. Beni

7. Hicks

8. Devers

9. Sanchez

10. Andujar

11. Pearce/Moreland

12. Didi (half year)

13. Torres

14. JBJ

15. Pedey/Nunez/Holt

16. Gardner

17. Voit/Byrd

18. Vaz/Leon

 

Defense:

Advantage Sox

 

Base running:

Advantage S0x

 

 

 

 

 

Delusional.....

 

Just for starters, on what planet exactly is eovaldi or erod better than Happ?!! Heck, even CC had a better ERA and WAR than eovaldi.

 

And as it stands right now, now way is devers a better hitter than Torres and Andujar.

[kenmeister]

Delusional.....

 

Just for starters, on what planet exactly is eovaldi or erod better than Happ?!! Heck, even CC had a better ERA and WAR than eovaldi.

 

And as it stands right now, now way is devers a better hitter than Torres and Andujar.

 

I really do think both Eovaldi and Erod will have better seasons than Happ and Sabathia.

[sk7326]

I really do think both Eovaldi and Erod will have better seasons than Happ and Sabathia.

 

ERod will be a Top 30 pitcher or so if he can make 25-30 starts, which has been a chore for him. Eovaldi has a wide range of outcomes, but he can also could be valuable in multiple roles. Obviously the hope is he is a quality starter - something I am fairly optimistic about. The cutter changed his career.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hype and hope does not a season make. I made a ranking based on 2018 WAR except at the end when I put CC behind Eovaldi. You also cannot forget Montgomery, who will be back by the ASB.

[jacksonianmarch]

I really do think both Eovaldi and Erod will have better seasons than Happ and Sabathia.

 

That’s more blind faith than actual likelihood. But that’s part of fandom I suppose

[kenmeister]

That’s more blind faith than actual likelihood. But that’s part of fandom I suppose

 

Well partly true. I wouldn't say I apply scientific rigor to my baseball thought processes. Still, I think I saw Eovaldi turn the corner last year in his pitching prowess. I think we've caught lightning in a bottle. There were several starts he was pulled very early when he was pitching fine so don't let that skew your thoughts on him. Erod was having an awesome season when he got run over on the way to first base. Maybe you weren't paying attention? Happ and Sabathia are just a notch below these guys.

[jacksonianmarch]

Eovaldi caught lightning in a bottle for a month. ERod has never stayed healthy and seems to recover very slowly from injury. For 2019, I agree I’d rather have Eovaldi or ERod over Sabathia, but not Happ. He’s a damn good pitcher and I’m not sure why you don’t see that, other than the uniform he wears

[moonslav59]

Slav, you seem to forget how good Severino was for 4 months of the year.

 

You sometimes seem to pick and choose what counts more.

 

I could argue Stephen Wright was very good for 4 months in 2017, but I don't.

 

You criticized Sale for looking questionable at the end of 2019, but brush away Severino's massive decline last year.

 

I can understand putting Sev ahead of Price, but it is no where near a certainty for 2019 performance projections.

 

You're big on pitcher's losing velocity, like it's a death toll, but then say Happ found some added velocity.

 

No way, Happ will be better than Price and maybe Porcello (who is hard to project). It's hard to know how Paxton will do with the Yanks, but he certainly can be very good, but so can Price and Porcello, who have already shown they can pitch wee enough to win a Cy Young award.

 

Try not to just look at the best time periods of your guys and the worst of ours. We should only look at Sevs first 4 months and Sanchez's 2017 numbers, but cannot do the same with Sox players. Why not look at JA Happ's numbers with TOR? You discount Eovaldi's numbers with us late in the year but act like Happ is some kind of sure thing stud.

 

Our rotations were pretty close last year, and you guys added Paxton.

 

2018 Yanks

IP Pitcher ERA/WHIP

191 Severino 3.39/1.145

156 Tanaka 3.75/1.128

153 Sabathia 3.65/1.314

113 S Gray 5.26/1.496

68 German 6.19/1.346

64 JA Happ 2.69/1.052

47 L Lynn 4.60/1.362

27 Montgomery, 18 Loaisioa, 18 Cessa, 5 Adams, 1 Holder.

 

It looks like Paxton will take the innings from Lynn and the also rans plus some from German and Gray. That looks like a big plus, but I'm expecting CC to come back to earth, Happ to pitch more like is old self than his 11 starts with the Yanks, and questions linger about Sev & Tanaka. Assuming everyone is healthy, the Yanks rotation should be a little better in 2019 thanks to Paxton.

 

The Sox are expected to replace some horrendous numbers with much better performance. Expecting all are healthy, like I did with the Yanks, we look at the 2018 numbers:

 

191 Porcello 4.28/1.176

176 D Price 3.58/1.142 (It wasn't just 2 playoff starts!)

158 C Sale 2.11/0.861

123 E Rod 3.79/1.273

61 Johnson 4.15/1.451

51 Pomeranz 6.31/1.812

50 N Eovaldo 3.22/1.272 (Not just a great P.O.)

30 Velazquez 4.15/1.582

24 S Wright 4.13/1.292

4 Beeks, 2 Cuevas.

 

We look to see Sale get 40+ more IP, ERod 30+, Price 20+ and Eovaldi taking most of Pomeranz, Jolhnson, Velazquez and Wright's IP'd. I see much more upside with our 2018 to 2019 comp, and I'm counting on nothing from Wright, who pitched like our ace for half of 2017.

 

[cp176]

Hype and hope does not a season make. I made a ranking based on 2018 WAR except at the end when I put CC behind Eovaldi. You also cannot forget Montgomery, who will be back by the ASB.

 

When it comes to Eovaldi, any amount of data that you have supported your statements about him with is meaningless. there is virtually no one who knows what is going to happen with this young man. If this year we see the arm that we saw during the World Series, he has absolute ace potential - end of story. It is a gamble and you aren't the first person to bring up his past performances. Most of us kind of like the gamble.

[Kimmi]

The same 3 questions remain from before the winter meetingss.

 

1. Who will we get for a closer, if anyone?

 

2. Which catcher will we choose to trade away?

 

3. Will Pedey actually recover sufficiently to be our starting second baseman?

 

The closer is the most pressing need although the catcher question might get involved in the closer question. The Pedey question is not as pressing although if the results of Pedey's return to running exercises proves problematic, that may change its urgency. I am not in a position to give solid advice to DD so will await his moves and comment then.

 

Dombrowski does not seem to be in any hurry to sign a closer, which IMO, is good. I still find it very difficult to believe that Dombrowski will go into the season without a well known closer.

 

I think Pedroia will be healthy enough to be our starting second baseman, but he'll get (need) a lot of rest days. There will be plenty of playing time for Holt and Nunez.

[Kimmi]

The same 3 questions remain from before the winter meetings.

 

1. Who will we get for a closer, if anyone?

 

My guess is we get Cody Allen and/or Brad Brach. We may possibly trade for a low cost closer.

 

2. Which catcher will we choose to trade away?

 

We may not trade any of the 3, as Swihart can play other positions. We ended up needing all 3 last year.

 

 

3. Will Pedey actually recover sufficiently to be our starting second baseman?

 

This will not be answered until we see it happen. He could look good, then get hurt day 1.

 

I am not averse to keeping Swihart, but I am if Cora is not going to play him very much. Play him about as much as Holt and Nunez play, or let him go.

[Kimmi]

I really hope you get Cody Allen or Brad Brach to close. You will lose a lot of games you should have won

 

Stop.

[Kimmi]

How does it keep you favorites? You lose Kelly and Kimbrel and bring in a guy who was awful last year with the hopes he finds it in the pressure cooker of Boston? The Yanks got better already. They are probably getting even better before the season. And you are getting worse

 

Kimbrel and Kelly combined for a total of 2.2 fWAR last season. They will be replaced by someone.

 

It's just not as big a deal as you're making it out to be.

[Kimmi]

If the Yanks get Machado, they will be faves. That's not necessarily a bad thing though.

 

I prefer the Yanks to be the favorites going into the season.

 

Let them get Machado.

 

They don't scare me.

[Kimmi]

That's fine with me. Let him walk.

 

Agreed. 2/24 is about what I'd be willing to sign him for. It may not be realistic, but it's what he should get.

[Kimmi]

Hype and hope does not a season make. I made a ranking based on 2018 WAR except at the end when I put CC behind Eovaldi. You also cannot forget Montgomery, who will be back by the ASB.

 

Says the King of Hype and Hope.

[moonslav59]

Slav, you seem to forget how good Severino was for 4 months of the year.

 

You sometimes seem to pick and choose what counts more.

 

I could argue Stephen Wright was very good for 4 months in 2017, but I don't.

 

You criticized Sale for looking questionable at the end of 2019, but brush away Severino's massive decline last year.

 

I can understand putting Sev ahead of Price, but it is no where near a certainty for 2019 performance projections.

 

You're big on pitcher's losing velocity, like it's a death toll, but then say Happ found some added velocity.

 

No way, Happ will be better than Price and maybe Porcello (who is hard to project). It's hard to know how Paxton will do with the Yanks, but he certainly can be very good, but so can Price and Porcello, who have already shown they can pitch wee enough to win a Cy Young award.

 

Try not to just look at the best time periods of your guys and the worst of ours. We should only look at Sevs first 4 months and Sanchez's 2017 numbers, but cannot do the same with Sox players. Why not look at JA Happ's numbers with TOR? You discount Eovaldi's numbers with us late in the year but act like Happ is some kind of sure thing stud.

 

Our rotations were pretty close last year, and you guys added Paxton.

 

2018 Yanks

IP Pitcher ERA/WHIP

191 Severino 3.39/1.145

156 Tanaka 3.75/1.128

153 Sabathia 3.65/1.314

113 S Gray 5.26/1.496

68 German 6.19/1.346

64 JA Happ 2.69/1.052

47 L Lynn 4.60/1.362

27 Montgomery, 18 Loaisioa, 18 Cessa, 5 Adams, 1 Holder.

 

It looks like Paxton will take the innings from Lynn and the also rans plus some from German and Gray. That looks like a big plus, but I'm expecting CC to come back to earth, Happ to pitch more like is old self than his 11 starts with the Yanks, and questions linger about Sev & Tanaka. Assuming everyone is healthy, the Yanks rotation should be a little better in 2019 thanks to Paxton.

 

The Sox are expected to replace some horrendous numbers with much better performance. Expecting all are healthy, like I did with the Yanks, we look at the 2018 numbers:

 

191 Porcello 4.28/1.176

176 D Price 3.58/1.142 (It wasn't just 2 playoff starts!)

158 C Sale 2.11/0.861

123 E Rod 3.79/1.273

61 Johnson 4.15/1.451

51 Pomeranz 6.31/1.812

50 N Eovaldo 3.22/1.272 (Not just a great P.O.)

30 Velazquez 4.15/1.582

24 S Wright 4.13/1.292

4 Beeks, 2 Cuevas.

 

We look to see Sale get 40+ more IP, ERod 30+, Price 20+ and Eovaldi taking most of Pomeranz, Jolhnson, Velazquez and Wright's IP'd. I see much more upside with our 2018 to 2019 comp, and I'm counting on nothing from Wright, who pitched like our ace for half of 2017.

 

[moonslav59]

JA Happ is now 36. He had a 4.18 ERA in 20 starts with Toronto last year before going to NY and doing very well there in 11 starts- the same amount Eovaldi had with the Sox.

 

True, Happ had very good seasons in 2016 and 2017, despite a high WHIP in '17. We hear talk of Eovaldi never giving a lot of IP'd over his career, but Happ has only gone over 178 once (2016). He's getting older- ERod is getting closer to prime. I get how one could accuse a Sox fan of being rosy on Eovaldi, but let's wait and see.

 

Sabathia will turn 39 in July. If he were on the Sox, Yanks fans would be calling us rosy for expecting much from him.

 

Paxton is in his prime but surprisingly has never pitched more than 161 IP. Now, he'll be in a hitter's park. Let's see.

Edited January 9, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Hype and hope does not a season make. I made a ranking based on 2018 WAR except at the end when I put CC behind Eovaldi. You also cannot forget Montgomery, who will be back by the ASB.

 

I didn't go all "hype and hope". You only want us to look at Sev's first 4 months, neglect Paxton's failure to ever give over 165 IP and expect Happ and CC to not decline due to their ages.

 

You want hype and hope? Here is some...

 

While several Yankee pitchers have difficulty going 170+ IP, Porcello never goes below 170. He's gone 8 straight over 172 and 4 out of 5 over 191. He's won a Cy Young, and while nobody here is projecting another year like 2016, at age 30 I'm thinking he has a better chance at doing well than not doing well. His WHIP has been under 1.18 in 2 of his last 3 years, and he just put up his best K/9 rate of his career.

 

Price did more than just pitch a couple great games in the playoffs. Although 33 is post prime, he's not 36 or 39 like Happ and CC will be. His 2018 WHIP was below his career number. He missed time, but still pitched more than Paxton ever has.

 

ERod has nasty stuff. His injury kept him from putting up some great numbers. The team went 19-4 in his 23 starts. Call me rosy, but this kid will turn 26 and can even get better. His K rate has improved 3 straight years, and his BB rate has declined 3 straight. HR/9 & WHIP also getting steadily better. Id it "rosy" to expect just the same from ERod but with 6-7 more starts?

 

Eovaldi is a tough one to project. He's had 2 major surgeries and using his career numbers to try to project anything is difficult. Wer all know he has nasty stuff, and it's all about his health and durability. If he becomes our closer in the playoffs, it might be a great thing... again.

 

Chris Sale's only issue is health and endurance. Nobody can question his greatness, but we showed we can win without him the second half of 2018.

 

Stephen Wright was pitching like our ace in 2016, and he had a 12-5 record with a 2.67 ERA in late July, He has a career 3.77 ERA. He offers some hope, if someone gets hurt or we move Eovaldi to closer.

 

Johnson and Velazquez seem to be capable 7 and 8 starters.

 

That's the plus side of our starters, but to me, it doesn't seem like "hype".

[sk7326]

Dombrowski does not seem to be in any hurry to sign a closer, which IMO, is good. I still find it very difficult to believe that Dombrowski will go into the season without a well known closer.

 

I think Pedroia will be healthy enough to be our starting second baseman, but he'll get (need) a lot of rest days. There will be plenty of playing time for Holt and Nunez.

 

I think we're basically seeing a version of the Sox-JD staredown from last year here. I am firmly of the belief that if there were a 5 year deal out there for Kimbrel he would have signed it by now.

[jacksonianmarch]

I didn't go all "hype and hope". You only want us to look at Sev's first 4 months, neglect Paxton's failure to ever give over 165 IP and expect Happ and CC to not decline due to their ages.

 

You want hype and hope? Here is some...

 

While several Yankee pitchers have difficulty going 170+ IP, Porcello never goes below 170. He's gone 8 straight over 172 and 4 out of 5 over 191. He's won a Cy Young, and while nobody here is projecting another year like 2016, at age 30 I'm thinking he has a better chance at doing well than not doing well. His WHIP has been under 1.18 in 2 of his last 3 years, and he just put up his best K/9 rate of his career.

 

Price did more than just pitch a couple great games in the playoffs. Although 33 is post prime, he's not 36 or 39 like Happ and CC will be. His 2018 WHIP was below his career number. He missed time, but still pitched more than Paxton ever has.

 

ERod has nasty stuff. His injury kept him from putting up some great numbers. The team went 19-4 in his 23 starts. Call me rosy, but this kid will turn 26 and can even get better. His K rate has improved 3 straight years, and his BB rate has declined 3 straight. HR/9 & WHIP also getting steadily better. Id it "rosy" to expect just the same from ERod but with 6-7 more starts?

 

Eovaldi is a tough one to project. He's had 2 major surgeries and using his career numbers to try to project anything is difficult. Wer all know he has nasty stuff, and it's all about his health and durability. If he becomes our closer in the playoffs, it might be a great thing... again.

 

Chris Sale's only issue is health and endurance. Nobody can question his greatness, but we showed we can win without him the second half of 2018.

 

Stephen Wright was pitching like our ace in 2016, and he had a 12-5 record with a 2.67 ERA in late July, He has a career 3.77 ERA. He offers some hope, if someone gets hurt or we move Eovaldi to closer.

 

Johnson and Velazquez seem to be capable 7 and 8 starters.

 

That's the plus side of our starters, but to me, it doesn't seem like "hype".

 

You cannot project Eovaldi. He very well may end up with an injury as he is prone to do.

 

Projecting ERod to be healthy but Paxton not to be is absolutely hilarious.

 

Happ outpitched Price. He has outpitched Price 3 years running. Price has already seen a drop in his fastball velocity and it clearly affected his performance. But yes, let's look at Happ's age and just call that a win for Price.

 

Steven Wright just had another surgery. He had micro fracture before that. Expecting him to do anything in 2019 is a puppy dog and rainbows fantasy

 

Johnson and Velasquez are replacement level players.

[moonslav59]

I think we're basically seeing a version of the Sox-JD staredown from last year here. I am firmly of the belief that if there were a 5 year deal out there for Kimbrel he would have signed it by now.

 

To me, the issue isn;t the 4th or 5th year, it's the cost against this year's and next year's luxury tax budget and our desire to reset after 2019 or possibly 2020. Any big deal that goes 2-3 years will greatly affect future choices. By year 5, we will have reset already and will likely be over again.

[sk7326]

To me, the issue isn;t the 4th or 5th year, it's the cost against this year's and next year's luxury tax budget and our desire to reset after 2019 or possibly 2020. Any big deal that goes 2-3 years will greatly affect future choices. By year 5, we will have reset already and will likely be over again.

 

We'll see what happens. I fully expect year 4 will be operating under different rules - though I'm not sure what they will be.

[Bellhorn04]

To me, the issue isn;t the 4th or 5th year, it's the cost against this year's and next year's luxury tax budget and our desire to reset after 2019 or possibly 2020. Any big deal that goes 2-3 years will greatly affect future choices. By year 5, we will have reset already and will likely be over again.

 

Stop worrying about that stuff. If JH's and DD's decision is to sign Kimbrel, so be it.

[moonslav59]

You cannot project Eovaldi. He very well may end up with an injury as he is prone to do.

 

Projecting ERod to be healthy but Paxton not to be is absolutely hilarious.

 

Happ outpitched Price. He has outpitched Price 3 years running. Price has already seen a drop in his fastball velocity and it clearly affected his performance. But yes, let's look at Happ's age and just call that a win for Price.

 

Steven Wright just had another surgery. He had micro fracture before that. Expecting him to do anything in 2019 is a puppy dog and rainbows fantasy

 

Johnson and Velasquez are replacement level players.

 

At least ERod's injuries have not been arm related.

 

OKay, you chose a 3 year sample size to show Happ is better than Price. Then, you have to say Porcello is better than Happ, right? He's had a better WAR, is younger and pitches more innings.

 

3 year fWAR

19.2 Sale

11.8 Paxton

11.5 Severino

10.1 Tanaka

10.0 Porcello

9.1 Happ

8.3 Price

7.1 Sabathia

5.5 ERod

5.1 Gray

2.8 Eovaldi

 

If you think this 3 year chart is the best way to project 2019, then you win.

 

Gray > Eovaldi

 

CC > ERod

 

Price is barely better than CC.

 

Things look rosy for the Yanks next year.

[notin]

 

Happ outpitched Price. He has outpitched Price 3 years running. Price has already seen a drop in his fastball velocity and it clearly affected his performance. But yes, let's look at Happ's age and just call that a win for Price.

 

Steven Wright just had another surgery. He had micro fracture before that. Expecting him to do anything in 2019 is a puppy dog and rainbows fantasy.

 

I’m calling you on the Happ/Price thing. Price did have 4.5 fWAR in 2016, a total Happ has never achieved.

 

In fat, Eovaldi is clearly a better comp for Happ. In his last two “full” seasons, Eovaldi has been worth 5.4 fWAR with Happ worth 6.0. But Eovaldi is also 7 years younger.

 

And Sabathia just had heart surgery. Is microfracture really the worst surgery on these two staffs?!!?