A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

I'm guessing he's had opportunities and that he doesn't want that position again.

 

Maybe he's waiting for the right team to ask.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe he's waiting for the right team to ask.

 

He's waiting a long time then. When the 2019 season is over it will have been 4 years + since he was our GM.

[Kimmi]

Also, it’s December...

 

Exactly.

[Kimmi]

I agree, and I think there's at least an equal chance our offense improves next year.

 

Our pen looks to be significantly worse, at this point. Enough to make a huge difference? Maybe.

 

I'm pretty sure DD makes at least one move to improve in that area, and after that deal is done, the real debate will begin.

 

 

I know it doesn't mean a whole lot, but as I've posted before, the Red Sox are the current projected leaders in fWAR. On paper, we currently have the best team, even with no additions to the BP.

[Kimmi]

He's waiting a long time then. When the 2019 season is over it will have been 4 years + since he was our GM.

 

I don't think it's necessarily been a long time. Not if he's looking for the right team or the right situation to get into.

 

You may be right that he doesn't want to be a GM again.

[notin]

He's waiting a long time then. When the 2019 season is over it will have been 4 years + since he was our GM.

 

Dan Duquette went 9 years in between GM gigs...

[Bellhorn04]

Dan Duquette went 9 years in between GM gigs...

 

True enough. Though I think he sort of went into hiding during that period.

[moonslav59]

I know it doesn't mean a whole lot, but as I've posted before, the Red Sox are the current projected leaders in fWAR. On paper, we currently have the best team, even with no additions to the BP.

 

We may lose the lead after Harper or Machado signs.

 

I'm not worried.

[kenmeister]

We may lose the lead after Harper or Machado signs.

 

I'm not worried.

 

I'm looking at baseball-reference and it says Bryce Harper had just 1.3 WAR last year; 4.2 offensive and -3.2 defensive. Wow I did not expect an overall number so low for him.

 

In fact his odd numbered WAR seasons are: 5.2 (rookie of the year), 1.1, 1.5, 1.3.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm looking at baseball-reference and it says Bryce Harper had just 1.3 WAR last year; 4.2 offensive and -3.2 defensive. Wow I did not expect an overall number so low for him.

 

In fact his odd numbered WAR seasons are: 5.2 (rookie of the year), 1.1, 1.5, 1.3.

 

Sobering, isn't it, when you consider what he's looking for.

 

(I guess sobering is kind of a bad pun when it comes to Harper.)

[kenmeister]

Sobering, isn't it, when you consider what he's looking for.

 

(I guess sobering is kind of a bad pun when it comes to Harper.)

 

I'm really quite happy the Sox aren't in the market for Harper or Machado.

 

When does Trout hit free agency? That will be something!!!

[dgalehouse]

The Sox were 5 games over their Pythagorean W-L, which had them at 103 wins.

The Yankees were 1 game over, which had them at 99 wins.

The Astros were 6 games under, which had them at 109 wins.

 

The point being, on paper, the Sox were not the best team last year. The Yankees were the heavy favorite for the division when the season started.

 

The Red Sox will be fine.

 

Back to back to back to back.

 

Run differential can be useful in gauging the overall strength of a team. However , each game is a separate contest and there are numerous variables and personnel changes over the course of a season . Anyway , the difference in run differential between the Sox and Astros was too small to determine who was better. Boston was the best team in the end. No one could dispute that.

[notin]

Run differential can be useful in gauging the overall strength of a team. However , each game is a separate contest and there are numerous variables and personnel changes over the course of a season . Anyway , the difference in run differential between the Sox and Astros was too small to determine who was better. Boston was the best team in the end. No one could dispute that.

 

 

The different schedules account for some of the run differential as well. The Sox won 108 regular season games while playing 38 games against 2 teams that combined for over 190 wins....

[dgalehouse]

The different schedules account for some of the run differential as well. The Sox won 108 regular season games while playing 38 games against 2 teams that combined for over 190 wins....

 

Sure . That is one of the variables . Some teams are simply easier to beat , and to beat by a sizable differential.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

The White Sox, Red Sox and Rockies are all maintaining some level of interest in free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. As one of the top relievers on the market, the 33-year-old Ottavino should have no shortage of clubs inquiring about his services, though the asking price on top-end bullpen arms could prove prohibitive for some clubs.

[harmony]

Run differential can be useful in gauging the overall strength of a team. However , each game is a separate contest and there are numerous variables and personnel changes over the course of a season . Anyway , the difference in run differential between the Sox and Astros was too small to determine who was better. Boston was the best team in the end. No one could dispute that.

Here is an interesting look at WAR, run differential and won/loss records:

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins

[dgalehouse]

Here is an interesting look at WAR, run differential and won/loss records:

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins

There are many systems around for betting on horse racing. Some of them quite complicated and analytical.Yet very few people are able to make any money on them. Something always gets in the way. With baseball, anyone can see who the contenders are , and who the bottom feeders are . But use Pythagorean, WAR or whatever you want; it is difficult to know how the baseball season will play out. So many things can happen. It may be hard to project what will happen , but the " experts " will always tell you why it did happen. After the fact , of course.

[notin]

There are many systems around for betting on horse racing. Some of them quite complicated and analytical.Yet very few people are able to make any money on them. Something always gets in the way. With baseball, anyone can see who the contenders are , and who the bottom feeders are . But use Pythagorean, WAR or whatever you want; it is difficult to know how the baseball season will play out. So many things can happen. It may be hard to project what will happen , but the " experts " will always tell you why it did happen. After the fact , of course.

 

 

That’s because baseball has parity that gets lost in volume. The best teams in baseball win about 60% of their games and the worst teams still win about 40%. Picture a season where every team in the NFL was in between 10-6 and 6-10. That’s where MLBis, but with 10x the number of games...

[dgalehouse]

That’s because baseball has parity that gets lost in volume. The best teams in baseball win about 60% of their games and the worst teams still win about 40%. Picture a season where every team in the NFL was in between 10-6 and 6-10. That’s where MLBis, but with 10x the number of games...

 

If baseball teams only played once a week on Sundays or Monday night , the same pitchers would always pitch . With a sixteen game schedule, a top team might go undefeated , or close to it . Obviously, football could not play a 162 game schedule. I don't think the parity is that much different in the two sports. It's just a matter of the circumstances.

[notin]

If baseball teams only played once a week on Sundays or Monday night , the same pitchers would always pitch . With a sixteen game schedule, a top team might go undefeated , or close to it . Obviously, football could not play a 162 game schedule. I don't think the parity is that much different in the two sports. It's just a matter of the circumstances.

 

But those circumstances create a certain amount of parity...

[Kimmi]

We may lose the lead after Harper or Machado signs.

 

I'm not worried.

 

I'm not worried either. We are good to go.

[Kimmi]

Run differential can be useful in gauging the overall strength of a team. However , each game is a separate contest and there are numerous variables and personnel changes over the course of a season . Anyway , the difference in run differential between the Sox and Astros was too small to determine who was better. Boston was the best team in the end. No one could dispute that.

 

IMO, run differential and Pythagorean W-L are better ways than actual W-L record to gauge how good a team is. There is too much luck and randomness in baseball not to consider these things.

 

I can dispute the Boston was the best team in the end, but I won't.

[Kimmi]

Here is an interesting look at WAR, run differential and won/loss records:

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins

 

Thanks for posting this Harmony. I absolutely love, love, love reading articles like this.

 

It's almost like I'm not making up the stuff that I post, and there's even more proof that WAR works.

 

To quote the author, "We may not be that crazy after all."

[moonslav59]

WAR

 

What is it good for.

 

Absolutely everything!

[dgalehouse]

N.Y. Times best seller . Analytics , Sabermetrics and magic formulas : How to out smart the wise guys and get rich betting on baseball by using WAR .

[moonslav59]

N.Y. Times best seller . Analytics , Sabermetrics and magic formulas : How to out smart the wise guys and get rich betting on baseball by using WAR .

 

I should have asked Santa for this!

[notin]

I should have asked Santa for this!

 

Maybe it's time someone told you....

[moonslav59]

I know this thread is intended for 2019 only, but the future budget choices, especially if a reset is in the plans after 2019 or 2020, affect the choices we make now.

 

Here's one view of the situation, if we choose to reset after 2019:

 

Start by subtracting Porcello, JD (opts out), Bogaerts, Sale, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, Holt & Thornburg (some may be added back, if we stay under). That leaves this as the 2020 base to work from:

 

Luxury Dollars in millions

31 Price

~26 Betts (last of 3 arbs)

17 Eovaldi

13.8 Pedroia

~13 JBJ (last of 4 arbs)

~9 ERod (3 of 4 arbs)

~6 Barnes (2 of 3)

~5 Wright (3 of 3)

4.5 Vazquez

~4.2 Beni (1st of 3)

~3.5 Leon (4 of 4)

~3.5 Hembree (2 of 3)

~2 Workman 3 of 3)

~1.5 Swihart (2 of 4)

 

$141M for 14 players

$15M benefits

$8M 11 players at min MLB wage

$3M 15 players on 40 man roster in minors

 

$167M TOTAL

$208M Tax threshold for 2020

 

That leaves $40M to spend and stay under to reset. We could bring some of our players back but certainly not close to everyone. We could sign a bunch of low to mid range free agents and look to try and contend to a small extent, or look to go large right away in 2021 by keeping Betts, JBJ and others.

 

Here is a rough estimate on what our departing players might get in 2020 (per year)

 

$30M Sale

$24M JD

$24M Bogey

$18M Porcello

$4M Nunez, Moreland, Pearce, Holt

 

We may be able to keep JD or Bogey and Porcello or a pitcher at $14-16M or so, but there would be nothing left over for the rest of the roster. We'd have 8-9 guys at min wage on the 25 man roster. It's hard to contend when you have 9 replacement level players.

 

 

 

 

 

[Northern Star]

I'm not worried either. We are good to go.

 

Not signing Harper or Machado is addition by subtraction IMO.

[notin]

Not signing Harper or Machado is addition by subtraction IMO.

 

 

Ummmm...that implies we let either of them go...