A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Assuming no more additions (doubtful) and 100% health (doubtful), here is how I see our 25 man roster looking on opening day:

 

SP: Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright

(AAA: Velazquez, Shawaryn, Shepherd, ERamirez- AA DHernandez)

RP: Brasier, Barnes, Thornburg, Hembree, Workman, Johnson

(AAA: Lakins, Poyner, Brewer, Walden, Putman -AA Feltman)

C: Vazquez, Leon

Traded: Swihart (AAA- Centeno & OHernandez)

1B: Pearce, Moreland

(AAA: Ockimey)

2B: Pedroia, Holt

(AAA-M Hernandez, Renda)

3B- Devers, Nunez

(AAA- Chavis- AA Dalbec)

SS- Bogaerts

(AAA- Lin)

LF: Benintendi

(AAA- Travis/Brentz)

CF- Bradley

(AAA- Castillo)

RF- Betts

(AAA- G Hernandez)

DH- JD Martinez

 

* If Pedey starts the year on the DL, we can keep Swihart or add Lin to the roster.

 

* If Wright starts the year on the DL, Velazquez could be added.

 

[Nick]

That is an option, but I think keeping Betts during the reset year of 2020, would keep fans interested enough.

 

We let 2-3 from Bogey, JD, Sale and Porcello walk, and then extend or re-sign Betts and some other big names for 2021 and beyond- maybe keeping the cliff to a 1 year thing.

 

Only way to beat luxury tax issue is to have more, talented team controlled players.

 

With Sale and Porcello in their last year and Cora's desire to rest our starters through the year, will someone from the farm emerge as a possible 2020 starter?

 

Will Chavis or someone else emerge to take over the 1B position? I could see a scenario if JD leaves, Pearce becomes a DH candidate and fill in for other positions as well. (assuming he has a stellar year)

 

Can Lin fill in for Xander or Pedey if one does not return in 2020?

 

To me we have plethora of young arms that can fill in in the pen. Try them all. Again, what are we afraid of? One candidate may emerge.

[notin]

Only way to beat luxury tax issue is to have more, talented team controlled players.

 

With Sale and Porcello in their last year and Cora's desire to rest our starters through the year, will someone from the farm emerge as a possible 2020 starter?

 

Will Chavis or someone else emerge to take over the 1B position? I could see a scenario if JD leaves, Pearce becomes a DH candidate and fill in for other positions as well. (assuming he has a stellar year)

 

Can Lin fill in for Xander or Pedey if one does not return in 2020?

 

To me we have plethora of young arms that can fill in in the pen. Try them all. Again, what are we afraid of? One candidate may emerge.

 

While I agree about cost-controlled players, if any of this happens, DD really needs to be fired.

 

Hopefully the plan is not to replace Chris Sale with Tanner Houck or Mike Sharwyn. Hopefully the plan is not to replace triple crown candidate JD Martinez with Steve Pearce and Mike Chavis. Hopefully the replacement for Bogaerts isn’t Lin. (Maybe the Sox can handle Chatham in the role.)

 

 

I expect a player or two to take bigger roles just based on salary. But if any or all these happen, that’s just some combination of sheer laziness and ignorance on the part of DD...

[notin]

Actually, I agree with both of you in the use of the phrase.

 

I get the point that NS was trying to make though.

 

I actually don’t even agree with his point. As unlikeable as Machado might be, he is an amazing ball player. And Harper is, too, and I don’t even see the aloof cockiness too many talk about with him...

[Bellhorn04]

I actually don’t even agree with his point. As unlikeable as Machado might be, he is an amazing ball player. And Harper is, too, and I don’t even see the aloof cockiness too many talk about with him...

 

But will they be worth their contracts?

[notin]

But will they be worth their contracts?

 

 

Not sure. Will Betts be worth his? One way or another, the Sox are going to learn the value and cost of a $300mill contract.

 

Also, ignoring personalities, if you had $300 mill to spend in one 10 year contract, would you prefer Machado from ages 26-35 or Betts from ages 28-37?

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure. Will Betts be worth his? One way or another, the Sox are going to learn the value and cost of a $300mill contract.

 

Also, ignoring personalities, if you had $300 mill to spend in one 10 year contract, would you prefer Machado from ages 26-35 or Betts from ages 28-37?

 

You may have a point about Machado. Harper is the guy I'm most skeptical about. His defensive numbers make him look like a future DH.

[Nick]

While I agree about cost-controlled players, if any of this happens, DD really needs to be fired.

 

Hopefully the plan is not to replace Chris Sale with Tanner Houck or Mike Sharwyn. Hopefully the plan is not to replace triple crown candidate JD Martinez with Steve Pearce and Mike Chavis. Hopefully the replacement for Bogaerts isn’t Lin. (Maybe the Sox can handle Chatham in the role.)

 

 

I expect a player or two to take bigger roles just based on salary. But if any or all these happen, that’s just some combination of sheer laziness and ignorance on the part of DD...

 

The topic was resetting. Unless you're willing to tell me how to get to $208M less $15M for benefits, or $193M, then there's nothing to talk about.

 

Now it's my hope that we simply keep the payroll at $248M. Then many things are possible.

[moonslav59]

The topic was resetting. Unless you're willing to tell me how to get to $208M less $15M for benefits, or $193M, then there's nothing to talk about.

 

Now it's my hope that we simply keep the payroll at $248M. Then many things are possible.

 

Yes, it all comes down to the plan to reset or not.

 

If the plan to reset is for after 2019, then any RP'er we sign this winter should be a 1 year deal or maybe they and or others get traded after 2019.

 

Or, we let several stars walk.

 

If Henry is okay with being call the next King George, then by all means, spend, spend, spend away!

[moonslav59]

While I agree about cost-controlled players, if any of this happens, DD really needs to be fired.

 

Hopefully the plan is not to replace Chris Sale with Tanner Houck or Mike Sharwyn. Hopefully the plan is not to replace triple crown candidate JD Martinez with Steve Pearce and Mike Chavis. Hopefully the replacement for Bogaerts isn’t Lin. (Maybe the Sox can handle Chatham in the role.)

 

 

I expect a player or two to take bigger roles just based on salary. But if any or all these happen, that’s just some combination of sheer laziness and ignorance on the part of DD...

 

Keeping Sale, Bogey and Sale would just about kiss any chance to reset away.

 

I guess we either keep way over the limit for several years, of DD gets fired, if you are correct.

 

I guess we could cut Betts, JBJ and others loose after 2020 and try and reset then.

[notin]

Keeping Sale, Bogey and Sale would just about kiss any chance to reset away.

 

I guess we either keep way over the limit for several years, of DD gets fired, if you are correct.

 

I guess we could cut Betts, JBJ and others loose after 2020 and try and reset then.

 

 

Financially and for the sake of 2020 and beyond, trading Bogaerts makes the most sense. From the perspective of putting the best team on the field in 2019, however, keeping Bogaerts makes the most sense...

[moonslav59]

Financially and for the sake of 2020 and beyond, trading Bogaerts makes the most sense. From the perspective of putting the best team on the field in 2019, however, keeping Bogaerts makes the most sense...

 

...or, you reset after 2019 and trade Betts and/or JBJ.

 

...or you trade Sale not Bogey.

[Kimmi]

I actually don’t even agree with his point. As unlikeable as Machado might be, he is an amazing ball player. And Harper is, too, and I don’t even see the aloof cockiness too many talk about with him...

 

I disagree with this, but that's fine.

 

Machado is not only unlikeable, but is he going to be that much better than Bogaerts or Devers? Is Harper going to be that much better than Beni or JBJ?

 

Certainly not enough to warrant the difference in salary. Not to mention the risk of some clubhouse issues.

[notin]

...or, you reset after 2019 and trade Betts and/or JBJ.

 

...or you trade Sale not Bogey.

 

 

Sale could be dealt, but I’m trying to also maximize my chances of repeating

[moonslav59]

Sale could be dealt, but I’m trying to also maximize my chances of repeating

 

If it's about maximizing for 2019, we don't trade either one, but I agree that Sale gives us a better chance than Bogey.

 

One could have reasoned that after winning in 2018, we could have traded Sale, Bogey, Porcello and anyone else not in our plans for 2020 and beyond, but that idea seems so crazy when we can bring back the same team for another run sans K & K.

[dgalehouse]

The elephant in the room is still the Yankees. Years ago , in the pre playoff days , the Sox had some terrific teams who could quite possibly have won the World Series if they only could have beaten the Yanks for the pennant. Things changed after 2004 . But it never goes away. We still have to outdo New York to win it all. The difference now is that the Yankees also know they have to fear the Red Sox. It is unfortunate that it all seems to come down to money, but that is the reality. You have to be smart , but you also have to spend.

[moonslav59]

The elephant in the room is still the Yankees. Years ago , in the pre playoff days , the Sox had some terrific teams who could quite possibly have won the World Series if they only could have beaten the Yanks for the pennant. Things changed after 2004 . But it never goes away. We still have to outdo New York to win it all. The difference now is that the Yankees also know they have to fear the Red Sox. It is unfortunate that it all seems to come down to money, but that is the reality. You have to be smart , but you also have to spend.

 

Agreed, but even the Yanks and Dodgers realize you have to reset every now and then, so you can spend like maniacs the other years.

 

Our day will come.

 

It's interesting to note how well both the Dodgers and Yanks did during their reset years.

[dgalehouse]

The elephant in the room is still the Yankees. Years ago , in the pre playoff days , the Sox had some terrific teams who could quite possibly have won the World Series if they only could have beaten the Yanks for the pennant. Things changed after 2004 . But it never goes away. We still have to outdo New York to win it all. The difference now is that the Yankees also know they have to fear the Red Sox. It is unfortunate that it all seems to come down to money, but that is the reality. You have to be smart , but you also have to spend.

 

Agreed, but even the Yanks and Dodgers realize you have to reset every now and then, so you can spend like maniacs the other years.

 

Our day will come.

 

It's interesting to note how well both the Dodgers and Yanks did during their reset years.

 

The thing is ; even with the so called reset , they were still head and shoulders above most of the competition. The Sox can do that too.

[moonslav59]

The thing is ; even with the so called reset , they were still head and shoulders above most of the competition. The Sox can do that too.

 

How?

 

Our farm is weak, and we (probably) need to reset soon.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

... the Braves, they may pursue free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel if he becomes willing to accept a three-year offer...

[Kimmi]

The thing is ; even with the so called reset , they were still head and shoulders above most of the competition. The Sox can do that too.

 

So, you're saying it's possible to be head and shoulders above the rest without spending like mad money?

[kenmeister]

Assuming no more additions (doubtful) and 100% health (doubtful), here is how I see our 25 man roster looking on opening day:

 

SP: Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright

(AAA: Velazquez, Shawaryn, Shepherd, ERamirez- AA DHernandez)

RP: Brasier, Barnes, Thornburg, Hembree, Workman, Johnson

(AAA: Lakins, Poyner, Brewer, Walden, Putman -AA Feltman)

C: Vazquez, Leon

Traded: Swihart (AAA- Centeno & OHernandez)

1B: Pearce, Moreland

(AAA: Ockimey)

2B: Pedroia, Holt

(AAA-M Hernandez, Renda)

3B- Devers, Nunez

(AAA- Chavis- AA Dalbec)

SS- Bogaerts

(AAA- Lin)

LF: Benintendi

(AAA- Travis/Brentz)

CF- Bradley

(AAA- Castillo)

RF- Betts

(AAA- G Hernandez)

DH- JD Martinez

 

* If Pedey starts the year on the DL, we can keep Swihart or add Lin to the roster.

 

* If Wright starts the year on the DL, Velazquez could be added.

 

 

I think this team can win it all. But obviously subtracting say Hembree and adding back in Kimbrel would be a plus. Actually I'd rather have Velazquez than Thornburg, Hembree or Workman.

 

Also add Carson Smith to the AAA back-up.

[notin]

I think this team can win it all. But obviously subtracting say Hembree and adding back in Kimbrel would be a plus. Actually I'd rather have Velazquez than Thornburg, Hembree or Workman.

 

Also add Carson Smith to the AAA back-up.

 

In order to afford Kimbrel, it’s going to take more than just clearing Hembree’s salary ...

[Nick]

In order to afford Kimbrel, it’s going to take more than just clearing Hembree’s salary ...

 

Yep, if true, all we have to do to afford Betts is get rid of Vaz' $4M. Hello? Is anyone home?

[OH FOY]

The knock on Ockimey is his Defense. Hard to figure they bring him up, with this. He wasn't protected, and he wasn't Drafted in Rule 5, seems others see him, as he needs much improvement. Not counting on him too much, this year, especially if he has a weak Triple AAA, season.

[Bellhorn04]

In order to afford Kimbrel, it’s going to take more than just clearing Hembree’s salary ...

 

Yep, if true, all we have to do to afford Betts is get rid of Vaz' $4M. Hello? Is anyone home?

 

He didn't say anything about affording. He just said it would be a plus.

[notin]

He didn't say anything about affording. He just said it would be a plus.

 

 

Getting Kimbrel and not getting rid of Hembree, whom I am noticing many fans seem to undervalue, would be a bigger plus.

 

Seriously, I do not get all this Hembree Hate and corresponding Workman Love. Or Johnson Love...

[notin]

The knock on Ockimey is his Defense. Hard to figure they bring him up, with this. He wasn't protected, and he wasn't Drafted in Rule 5, seems others see him, as he needs much improvement. Not counting on him too much, this year, especially if he has a weak Triple AAA, season.

 

 

Ockimey does bring very little to the table right now.

 

The Marlins could have had him for free, but instead have opted to try 28yo Pete O’Brien - who has already on at least his fourth organization and third position - as their first baseman...

[Bellhorn04]

Getting Kimbrel and not getting rid of Hembree, whom I am noticing many fans seem to undervalue, would be a bigger plus.

 

Seriously, I do not get all this Hembree Hate and corresponding Workman Love. Or Johnson Love...

 

Hembree saw more postseason use than the other 2 so obviously Cora agrees.

[cp176]

Hembree saw more postseason use than the other 2 so obviously Cora agrees.

 

Nothing wrong with Hembree at all. Cora knows how to use him best to maximize what he can give us.