A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[harmony]

AAA or not, Castillo is going to have a good life.

 

But in 2017 he hit 15 HRs in 369 ABs and slugged over .500. His ground ball rates are high, but at the expense of his fly all rates, as he has been hitting line drives at a very good rate.

 

While I do know Dombrowski is not a fan, Castillo is a borderline MLB player who could startt on a second tier team., at worst.

 

And his defensive metrics in limited MLB action are actually outstanding. Give him credit where he deserves it. I compared him to another borderline MLB starter in Jarrod Dyson. I stand by that. Teams don’t consider Dyson the key missing piece.

 

If not for his contract, Castillo could be traded and possibly become a starter for some team somewhere.

 

Sadly for the Sox, he does remain the best MLB-ready outfielder in the system, something that was not changed with the signing of Gorkys-mania...

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each outfielder, projects Rusney Castillo with a 2019 WAR of 0.6:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

 

I question whether Castillo would be a regular in many outfields.

[notin]

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each outfielder, projects Rusney Castillo with a 2019 WAR of 0.6:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

 

I question whether Castillo would be a regular in many outfields.

 

 

Is Steamer600 ever right? Or even close?

 

There's a age old (by which I mean 30 seconds or so) saying the baseball projections industry - "If it's not WAPM, it's not worth CRAPM..."

[Nick]

Castillo's $11M would cost the Sox additional $9.3M in 2019 assuming his entire $11M sits above the $40M tier.

 

Now that would be stupid.

[harmony]

Is Steamer600 ever right? Or even close?

 

There's a age old (by which I mean 30 seconds or so) saying the baseball projections industry - "If it's not WAPM, it's not worth CRAPM..."

Steamer and other pubically available systems publish their projections, which can be compared and contrasted for validity and reliability year to year.

 

Unlike the anonymous internet poster who can virtually bury his or her projections.

[moonslav59]

Castillo's $11M would cost the Sox additional $9.3M in 2019 assuming his entire $11M sits above the $40M tier.

 

Now that would be stupid.

 

How do you come up with that number?

[Bellhorn04]

How do you come up with that number?

 

I get 8.3 million.

 

30% tax

45% surtax for being 40 million over threshold 2 years in a row

75% total tax rate

[moonslav59]

I get 8.3 million.

 

30% tax

45% surtax for being 40 million over threshold 2 years in a row

75% total tax rate

 

Right, and then his contract stays on the books in 2020 as well, plus any tax we have then.

[Kimmi]

LL was an easy scapegoat, because he was never very likable. But attributing every bad move to him and labeling him as a star-driven incompetent has to be wildly inaccurate. The man was not only part of the front office of three World Series champions in Boston, but also another one in Baltimore as well as part of the front office of a Super Bowl champion in Washington. He’s one of the most successful executives in American sports’ history. It’s a safe bet he knew what he was doing...

 

No one, to my knowledge, has blamed Lucchino for every bad move. No one, to my knowledge, has said that he's incompetent.

 

But yes, he was star driven. He more or less admitted to such. His priority in signing players was not to win games, but to put fans in the seats.

[moonslav59]

There has been some tendencies of blaming LL for more of the bad deals than the good ones, but I have pretty much put all of the blame and praise on the GM. Whether pushed by LL or not, Ben should never have signed Pablo. The HRam and Castillo deals didn't work out too well, in hindsight. To me, the CC & Beckett dump more than cancelled out those bad signings. He won us a ring and built a strong farm at the same time.

 

The 3 last place finishes sucked, but it was worth it. The 2013 ring and 2018 ring can be directly related to Ben, and that is not meant to take anything away from DD.

[notin]

No one, to my knowledge, has blamed Lucchino for every bad move. No one, to my knowledge, has said that he's incompetent.

 

But yes, he was star driven. He more or less admitted to such. His priority in signing players was not to win games, but to put fans in the seats.

 

His track record for winning in multiple sports does conflict with the idea that he didn’t prioritize winning. How many executives can you name with 4 World Series rings and a Super Bowl ring? Even just 4 WS rings is a pretty small list. (Henry would be on it. Ditto Cashman.)

[cp176]

You do realize that post said nothing detrimental about Dombrowski, right?

 

Indeed and of course it goes without saying that although I am not a follower of his, I say nothing particularly nasty about Ben.

[kenmeister]

There has been some tendencies of blaming LL for more of the bad deals than the good ones, but I have pretty much put all of the blame and praise on the GM. Whether pushed by LL or not, Ben should never have signed Pablo. The HRam and Castillo deals didn't work out too well, in hindsight. To me, the CC & Beckett dump more than cancelled out those bad signings. He won us a ring and built a strong farm at the same time.

 

The 3 last place finishes sucked, but it was worth it. The 2013 ring and 2018 ring can be directly related to Ben, and that is not meant to take anything away from DD.

 

It's not just the deals you make, but the deals you don't make. Not only did Ben sign HRam and Pablo, but he didn't sign Scherzer and Nelson Cruz that offseason (if memory serves correctly). Of course for all I know, both of those guys had something against coming to Boston, but on the surface it looks like a total whiff.

[moonslav59]

I think the idea was that "putting fans in the seats" would equate to winning more games. The Pablo signing did just the opposite.

 

Looking back, signing Scherzer instead of Pablo & HRam was the best move, but some context is needed. At the time, we needed offense and pitching. The long list of top FA pitchers (like Price) coming onto the market the following year was at least a reason to think of the 2 year plan as build offense one year and pitching the next.

 

Ultimately, the GM gets the blame in hindsight. Porcello and HRam sucked during Ben's last year, then did very well to great DD's first year in control, and we win the division. Much of being a GM is rolling the dice, and Ben deserves the criticism he gets for several bad choices, but he also made some good moves, like Porcello and farm building, even though he was not directly benefited by them.

 

I'm glad we had Theo, Ben and now DD. I'm happy with all 3.

 

[Nick]

Right, and then his contract stays on the books in 2020 as well, plus any tax we have then.

 

You are missing the 12% secondary penalty.

[Nick]

I think the idea was that "putting fans in the seats" would equate to winning more games. The Pablo signing did just the opposite.

 

Looking back, signing Scherzer instead of Pablo & HRam was the best move, but some context is needed. At the time, we needed offense and pitching. The long list of top FA pitchers (like Price) coming onto the market the following year was at least a reason to think of the 2 year plan as build offense one year and pitching the next.

 

Ultimately, the GM gets the blame in hindsight. Porcello and HRam sucked during Ben's last year, then did very well to great DD's first year in control, and we win the division. Much of being a GM is rolling the dice, and Ben deserves the criticism he gets for several bad choices, but he also made some good moves, like Porcello and farm building, even though he was not directly benefited by them.

 

I'm glad we had Theo, Ben and now DD. I'm happy with all 3.

 

 

I don't think we have to be critical but we can point out bad contracts.

 

Here's the story behind Castillo signing.

 

Red Sox came in second for Abreu. I think we missed by few million dollars. We were determined not to come in second the following year when Castillo became available. You can't blame our GM for trying. It just hasn't worked out.

 

Each year it seems all teams fall into 'group think' mode. Kansas City winning it all brought in the strong pen over starters theory.

 

This year it seems to me all teams are looking for closer types that can pitch multiple innings.

[moonslav59]

I don't think we have to be critical but we can point out bad contracts.

 

Here's the story behind Castillo signing.

 

Red Sox came in second for Abreu. I think we missed by few million dollars. We were determined not to come in second the following year when Castillo became available. You can't blame our GM for trying. It just hasn't worked out.

 

Each year it seems all teams fall into 'group think' mode. Kansas City winning it all brought in the strong pen over starters theory.

 

This year it seems to me all teams are looking for closer types that can pitch multiple innings.

 

I thought the Castillo signing looked good at the time.

 

I didn't like the HRam signing, but I didn't think it would end that badly.

 

I hated the Pablo signing, but never expected a total collapse from day one.

[Bellhorn04]

You are missing the 12% secondary penalty.

 

12% is the surtax if you exceed the cap by 20 to 40 million.

 

Here's a good article on the penalty rates:

 

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=19&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwisq_6W66rfAhVmm-AKHVAPBcY4ChAWMAh6BAgBEAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fthegruelingtruth.net%2Fbaseball%2Fluxury-tax-implications-for-the-2019-red-sox%2F&usg=AOvVaw34WEHsWp6vgFGgW16s_F9S

[moonslav59]

Yes, and the point was that Castillo's contract might be totally over the max $40M line, and the tax would be massive.

 

Once we put Castillo on the 40 man roster, we can't put the genie back in the bottle, and his contract would count in 2020 as well- plus any taxes we may be ar, if we chose not to re-set after 2019. Adding Castillo would almost certainly mean no re-set after 2019.

[Nick]

I said Castillo's $11M would cost the Sox additional $9.3M in 2019 assuming his entire $11M sits above the $40M tier.

 

$11M x .30 = $3.300M

$11M x .12 = $1.320M

$11M x .425= $4.675M

 

It adds up to $9.295M . Any questions?

[moonslav59]

I said Castillo's $11M would cost the Sox additional $9.3M in 2019 assuming his entire $11M sits above the $40M tier.

 

$11M x .30 = $3.300M

$11M x .12 = $1.320M

$11M x .425= $4.675M

 

It adds up to $9.295M . Any questions?

 

Yes, I get it.

 

I was just adding the part about his 2020 salary, too.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, and the point was that Castillo's contract might be totally over the max $40M line, and the tax would be massive.

 

Once we put Castillo on the 40 man roster, we can't put the genie back in the bottle, and his contract would count in 2020 as well- plus any taxes we may be ar, if we chose not to re-set after 2019. Adding Castillo would almost certainly mean no re-set after 2019.

 

Yes, you can put the genie back in the bottle. You DFA him again

[harmony]

Yes, you can put the genie back in the bottle. You DFA him again

But under a rules change, Rusney Castillo's salary would still count for luxury tax purposes if he were added to the 40-man roster and then later dropped:

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/01/boston_red_soxs_rusney_castill_13.html

[Larry Cook]

so in summary.

 

We give the highest salary of any team in the league and

 

The highest paid minor leaguer in history!

 

At least we are consistent!

[moonslav59]

Yes, you can put the genie back in the bottle. You DFA him again

 

No. They changed the rules. His contract would still count on 2020.

 

[Nick]

so in summary.

 

We give the highest salary of any team in the league and

 

The highest paid minor leaguer in history!

 

At least we are consistent!

 

And don't forget we still have the highest payroll for a DFA'd player.

[Bellhorn04]

I said Castillo's $11M would cost the Sox additional $9.3M in 2019 assuming his entire $11M sits above the $40M tier.

 

$11M x .30 = $3.300M

$11M x .12 = $1.320M

$11M x .425= $4.675M

 

It adds up to $9.295M . Any questions?

 

Incorrect, Nick.

 

Amounts that sit above the $40 M tier will be taxed at 75% to us in 2019.

 

206 million is the threshold.

 

206 million to 226 million will be taxed at 30%.

226 million to 246 million will be taxed at 42% (30+12)

Over 246 million will be taxed at 75% (30+45)

 

You're doubling up the 12%. The highest rate we can pay in 2019 is 75%.

 

For a third-time offender the highest rate is 95% (50+45)

[Bellhorn04]

so in summary.

 

We give the highest salary of any team in the league and

 

The highest paid minor leaguer in history!

 

At least we are consistent!

 

The highest paid player in the majors (and in history) by AAV is Zack Greinke at $34.4 million.

[notin]

No. They changed the rules. His contract would still count on 2020.

 

 

Unless he was claimed (fingers crossed)...

[moonslav59]

And don't forget we still have the highest payroll for a DFA'd player.

 

True, but paying Pablo to play in SF and having his salary count on our budget is way worse.

 

BTW, where is the list of DFA's player's pay?

[moonslav59]

Unless he was claimed (fingers crossed)...

 

That rule was changed last bargaining session, too.