A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

So if you let Mookie or whomever walk, who are you going to replace him with?

 

FTR, I am advocating letting Mookie walk as opposed to signing him to a 10 year deal.

 

Losing Mookie would be like losing our heart and soul plus all the numbers.

 

I know, we just proved we could win without Big Papi, our former heart & soul guy, but losing Mookie would be a cliff by itself.

[Nick]

I don't think we reset in 2020. I think we look at 2021 to do it.

 

Your 2020 numbers miss a few things.

 

$15M for player benefits

 

Arb raises will be on top of this year's arb raises, which will be way more than $20M from the 2018 contract numbers.

 

You mention we will need 1B, DH and SS, but what about replacing Sale & Porcello?

 

Here's how I look at 2020:

 

Luxury tax dollars

 

31 Price

24 Betts (last of 3 arbs)

14 JBJ (last of 4 arbs)

14 Pedey

12 ERod (3 of 4 arbs)

6 Vaz

6 Wright (last of 3 arbs)

5 Barnes (2nd of 3 arbs)

5 Beni (1st of 3 arbs)

3 Hembree (2nd or 3 arbs)

3 Workman (last of 3 arbs)

 

That's $123M for 11 players. We need 14 more at the ML level and 15 to fill out the 40 man. At minimum cost, that's $145M in salaries plus $15M player benefits= $160M. That's with replacement level players in all open slots.

 

That leaves $48M to upgrade some of those 14 slots with better players. Devers, Johnson, Velazquez, Brasier, Poyner, Lin and maybe a couple others could do nicely, but replacing Sale, Porcello, Eovaldi, JD, Bogey, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, Holt & Thornburg while staying under the luxury tax is frightening.

 

I don't see it happening until 2021, and if we keep many of the players listed above at more than a 1 year deal, and we want to reset in 2021, then bye-bye to Betts & JBJ.

 

I had the benefits but not the arbitration numbers. I come up with $155M but I'll buy your $160M.

 

It would clear things up if some of our minor leaguers see the big league during 2019.

 

Resetting after 2021 makes sense if Henry is willing to pay 50% tax on overage over $208M and additional 12.5% on overage over $228-247.9999M.

[Nick]

Losing Mookie would be like losing our heart and soul plus all the numbers.

 

I know, we just proved we could win without Big Papi, our former heart & soul guy, but losing Mookie would be a cliff by itself.

 

I guess my concern with reset during winter of his FA is to convince him we'll be competitive going forward.

[moonslav59]

I guess my concern with reset during winter of his FA is to convince him we'll be competitive going forward.

 

If we reset the year before, then he'll already have experienced a downturn during his last season.

[sk7326]

A decent amount of time?

 

DD has been in charge of the farm for 3 cycles, now. We will need youth infusion by 2020 and 2021.

 

We shouldn't ever stink, if we keep spending, and if our reset year we still spend near the luxury tax level, but there almost certainly will be, IMO, a season or two where we are not really contenders.

 

I would not be surprised if there was a season or two where there is more dreaming than I'd prefer. If there is a season where this team looks like there is no realistic scenario which gets them into October, somebody screwed up.

[moonslav59]

I would not be surprised if there was a season or two where there is more dreaming than I'd prefer. If there is a season where this team looks like there is no realistic scenario which gets them into October, somebody screwed up.

 

You'd think you should be able to be at least a decent contender spending one dollar below the luxury tax limit, no matter what, right?

 

However, if you have 5 guys making $110M and you add $15M for the players' benefits, there's not a whole lot left to fill the other 20 slots on the roster, assuming the team goes under the luxury line for one season.

[moonslav59]

Projected arb costs for 2019:

 

$19.5M Betts (2nd or 3 arbs)

$11.25M Bogey (3 of 3)

$8.75M JBJ (3 of 4)

$4.25M ERod (2 of 4)

$3.5M Holt (3 of 3)

$3.25M Barnes (1 of 3)

$3M Leon (3 of 4)

$3M Wright (2 of 3)

$2.75M Thornburg (3 of 3)

$1.25M Hembree (1 of 3)

$975K Workman (2 of 3)

$950K Swihart (1 of 4)

 

First arb in 2020:

Beni & marco Hernandez

 

First arb in 2021:

Devers, Brasier, R Scott

 

[Bellhorn04]

Projected arb costs for 2019:

 

$19.5M Betts (2nd or 3 arbs)

 

It's gone up already!

[moonslav59]

Projected arb costs for 2019: >(Projections for 2020)

 

$19.5M Betts (2nd or 3 arbs)> $26M (3 of 3)

$11.25M Bogey (3 of 3) Free Agent

$8.75M JBJ (3 of 4)> $11M (4 of 4)

$4.25M ERod (2 of 4)> $8M (3 of 4)

$3.5M Holt (3 of 3) Free Agent

$3.25M Barnes (1 of 3)> $5.5M (2 of 3)

$3M Leon (3 of 4)> $3.5M (4 of 4)

$3M Wright (2 of 3)> $5M (3 of 3)

$2.75M Thornburg (3 of 3)> Free Agent

$1.25M Hembree (1 of 3)> $3M (2 of 3)

$975K Workman (2 of 3)> $1.5M (3 of 3)

$950K Swihart (1 of 4)> $1.25M (2 of 4)

 

First arb in 2020:

Beni >$4M (1 of 3)

Marco Hernandez> $900K (1 of 3)

[moonslav59]

It's gone up already!

 

Cots has us estimated at $18.5M over the luxury tax after arb signings. If we sign Eovaldi to $15M per year, we'll be just $6.5M under the $40M line.

 

We still need pen help and may want some money for summer pick-ups.

 

It only gets scarier in 2020 and 2021, despite losing Pablo's contract.

[Bellhorn04]

Cots has us estimated at $18.5M over the luxury tax after arb signings. If we sign Eovaldi to $15M per year, we'll be just $6.5M under the $40M line.

 

We still need pen help and may want some money for summer pick-ups.

 

It only gets scarier in 2020 and 2021, despite losing Pablo's contract.

 

Success is expensive, that's for sure.

[moonslav59]

Success is expensive, that's for sure.

 

So true. You win by having good players.

 

Good players get paid a lot and get raises.

 

It's nearly impossible to keep all the good players without eventually spending through the roof.

 

A team need periodic, low-cost youth infusion. The team we have now had those infusions 2-5 years ago in Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Barnes, Beni, Devers and others.

 

Who is going to be our next Beni or Devers?

 

Is anyone close to their skill level and close to ML ready right now?

 

Filling key roles with players like Chavis, Shawaryn, Lakins and Lin is not likely going to lead to the same results as the infusion mentioned above.

[moonslav59]

This from MLBTR on the Sox 2019 budget...

 

...The Red Sox will try to minimize their tax bill and ensure that they avoid hitting the $246 million threshold at which point their top draft pick is dropped 10 spots. It seems overwhelmingly likely that they will incur the 12 percent surtax for exceeding $226 million in luxury tax payroll, but, again, I expect that they will avoid the 42.5 percent surtax for exceeding $246 million in luxury tax payroll.

 

Provided that they plan to leave a little space for in-season acquisitions, let’s peg them at a spending level that enables the club to replace Craig Kimbrel at the back of the bullpen without breaking the bank.

 

Projected 2019 Payroll: $230 million cash ($232 million luxury tax)

 

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $15.8 million

 

Read the full article here:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/red-sox-payroll-2019.html

[Nick]

Projected arb costs for 2019: >(Projections for 2020)

 

$19.5M Betts (2nd or 3 arbs)> $26M (3 of 3)

$11.25M Bogey (3 of 3) Free Agent

$8.75M JBJ (3 of 4)> $11M (4 of 4)

$4.25M ERod (2 of 4)> $8M (3 of 4)

$3.5M Holt (3 of 3) Free Agent

$3.25M Barnes (1 of 3)> $5.5M (2 of 3)

$3M Leon (3 of 4)> $3.5M (4 of 4)

$3M Wright (2 of 3)> $5M (3 of 3)

$2.75M Thornburg (3 of 3)> Free Agent

$1.25M Hembree (1 of 3)> $3M (2 of 3)

$975K Workman (2 of 3)> $1.5M (3 of 3)

$950K Swihart (1 of 4)> $1.25M (2 of 4)

 

First arb in 2020:

Beni >$4M (1 of 3)

Marco Hernandez> $900K (1 of 3)

 

Your corrected me for not having arbitration numbers for 2020 but you did not DEDUCT arbitration numbers for FREE AGENTS, a la Xander, Thornburg and Holt, totaling $17.5M.

 

Let's try again with numbers you have presented.

 

Cot's number assuming no other additions for 2019 and using mlbtraderumors estimate of arbitration numbers for 2019 you presented above.

 

Cot's estimate for 2019 as of today $18.572M OVER the limit of $206M

addition for increase in 2020 limit +2.0M

addition for 2019 arbitration players becoming FA in 2020 +$17.5M (Xander, Thornburg and Holt)

addition for FA Porcello $22.0M + Sale $15M + Pearce $6.25 + Moreland $6.50 + Nunez $5.0 M = +$54.75

Pablo's contract expiring +$18.455

JD opting out +$22.0 M

Increase in arbitration eligible numbers from 2019 to 2020 presented by Moon above....$24.725 (Includes 1st year arb eligible players Beni and Marco)

 

If you add them all up, Sox will have $71.408 to spend on FA. Let's say we round it down to $65M for increase in player benefits and rounding out 40 man roster.

 

We'll be missing Xander, Sale, Porcello, Pearce, Moreland, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg.

 

How would you allocate $65M to stay under $208M and still be competitive?

 

SP Sale, E Rod, Wright, Hector, Johnson ...definitely need a reliable starter. Would you spend $33M of $65M on Sale?

Line Up 1 Betts 2 Beni 3 Devers 4 JBJ 5 Pedey 6 Vazquez 7 DH 8 1B 9 SS It would really help if JD does not opt out for another year. That would cost us $22M, worth it having JD.

Bullpe I still think we have internal options.

 

We can't have Sale, Xander and JD without trading away someone like JBJ. (if you want to stay below $208M)

 

For $65M, we can have Xander ($20M), Eovaldi (sign him this winter at $16M) and JD Martinez(if he does not opt out). Our lineup will be strong. Would Price, Eovaldi, E Rod, Wright, Hector, Johsnon good enough?

 

Can anyone come up with championship team for $65M to reset in 2020? Or do we reset year later?

Edited November 27, 2018 by Nick

[sk7326]

So true. You win by having good players.

 

Good players get paid a lot and get raises.

 

It's nearly impossible to keep all the good players without eventually spending through the roof.

 

A team need periodic, low-cost youth infusion. The team we have now had those infusions 2-5 years ago in Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Barnes, Beni, Devers and others.

 

Who is going to be our next Beni or Devers?

 

Is anyone close to their skill level and close to ML ready right now?

 

Filling key roles with players like Chavis, Shawaryn, Lakins and Lin is not likely going to lead to the same results as the infusion mentioned above.

 

There has been a lot of bad luck with the top prospects Dombrowski has brought in. (injuries and worse) We'll see how it goes - especially on the international front.

[moonslav59]

Your corrected me for not having arbitration numbers for 2020 but you did not DEDUCT arbitration numbers for FREE AGENTS, a la Xander, Thornburg and Holt, totaling $17.5M.

 

Let's try again with numbers you have presented.

 

Cot's number assuming no other additions for 2019 and using mlbtraderumors estimate of arbitration numbers for 2019 you presented above.

 

Cot's estimate for 2019 as of today $18.572M OVER the limit of $206M

addition for increase in 2020 limit +2.0M

addition for 2019 arbitration players becoming FA in 2020 +$17.5M (Xander, Thornburg and Holt)

addition for FA Porcello $22.0M + Sale $15M + Pearce $6.25 + Moreland $6.50 + Nunez $5.0 M = +$54.75

Pablo's contract expiring +$18.455

JD opting out +$22.0 M

Increase in arbitration eligible numbers from 2019 to 2020 presented by Moon above....$24.725 (Includes 1st year arb eligible players Beni and Marco)

 

If you add them all up, Sox will have $71.408 to spend on FA. Let's say we round it down to $65M for increase in player benefits and rounding out 40 man roster.

 

We'll be missing Xander, Sale, Porcello, Pearce, Moreland, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg.

 

How would you allocate $65M to stay under $208M and still be competitive?

 

SP Sale, E Rod, Wright, Hector, Johnson ...definitely need a reliable starter. Would you spend $33M of $65M on Sale?

Line Up 1 Betts 2 Beni 3 Devers 4 JBJ 5 Pedey 6 Vazquez 7 DH 8 1B 9 SS It would really help if JD does not opt out for another year. That would cost us $22M, worth it having JD.

Bullpe I still think we have internal options.

 

We can't have Sale, Xander and JD without trading away someone like JBJ. (if you want to stay below $208M)

 

For $65M, we can have Xander ($20M), Eovaldi (sign him this winter at $16M) and JD Martinez(if he does not opt out). Our lineup will be strong. Would Price, Eovaldi, E Rod, Wright, Hector, Johsnon good enough?

 

Can anyone come up with championship team for $65M to reset in 2020? Or do we reset year later?

 

I think NO.

 

The rotation and pen are very weak and there is no youth infusion on the horizon, except for maybe, and I stress the word maybe, Feltman. I also think keeping JD might mean saying good bye to Betts the following year, so signing guys for 2020 has to have 2021 and beyond in mind as well. (As I have said, 2021 looks like the cliff year to me, as i doubt we reset after 2019.)

 

No Sale (the best starter we've had sine Pedro)

No Porcello (the rock of our staff)

No Kimbrel (the best closer in the last 6 years)

No Kelly, Holt, Thornburg, Kinsler.

 

No rings.

[moonslav59]

There has been a lot of bad luck with the top prospects Dombrowski has brought in. (injuries and worse) We'll see how it goes - especially on the international front.

 

He's really missed in the area Theo and Ben did very well in- the international free agent market.

 

Doubront

Dice-K

Okajima

Tazawa

Iggy

Montas

Bogey

J Aro

Lin

Margot

Espinoza

Moncada

Devers

D Hernandez (5th ranked now)

Guerra, Dubon, the Basabes and others used in trades to get key pieces.

 

Now, DD inherited a season of being banned from signings, but he's still had two years and only has Hector Velazquez to show for it. True, The Flores death was horrible, and there are some promising, and mostly very young, prospects with the jury still out, but according to soxprospects.com, these are our top int'l prospects:

 

7) B Mata 19

8) A Flores 18

14) Danny Diaz 17

20) G Jimenez 18

 

Like I said, some promise, but it's a long way away, and a big gap between Devers and the next one.

 

This is an example of how much harder the system has gotten, and why I don't think it will be as easy as some seem to think it will be to quickly rebuild the farm while we keep winning and spending large every year.

 

It has been our savior for nearly a decade.

 

[sk7326]

You'd think you should be able to be at least a decent contender spending one dollar below the luxury tax limit, no matter what, right?

 

However, if you have 5 guys making $110M and you add $15M for the players' benefits, there's not a whole lot left to fill the other 20 slots on the roster, assuming the team goes under the luxury line for one season.

 

I do think something like this is why the Bogaerts thing is so interesting. There are good reasons to sign him vs trade him ... I can see both sides.

 

As I've always noted - the Red Sox, who ask a larger financial commitment from their fans than any other team, absolutely should be held to a high standard by fans ... I understand how economics works (and how the prices fans are charged have only an indirect connection to player salaries) but I talk in terms of what the product the consumers should expect from this ownership.

[sk7326]

He's really missed in the area Theo and Ben did very well in- the international free agent market.

 

Doubront

Dice-K

Okajima

Tazawa

Iggy

Montas

Bogey

J Aro

Lin

Margot

Espinoza

Moncada

Devers

D Hernandez (5th ranked now)

Guerra, Dubon, the Basabes and others used in trades to get key pieces.

 

Now, DD inherited a season of being banned from signings, but he's still had two years and only has Hector Velazquez to show for it. True, The Flores death was horrible, and there are some promising, and mostly very young, prospects with the jury still out, but according to soxprospects.com, these are our top int'l prospects:

 

7) B Mata 19

8) A Flores 18

14) Danny Diaz 17

20) G Jimenez 18

 

Like I said, some promise, but it's a long way away, and a big gap between Devers and the next one.

 

This is an example of how much harder the system has gotten, and why I don't think it will be as easy as some seem to think it will be to quickly rebuild the farm while we keep winning and spending large every year.

 

It has been our savior for nearly a decade.

 

 

It will be tough - as noted it is tough when 3 of Dombrowski's 4 first round picks have gotten hurt. Really the onus has to come on the development guys ... find those more raw guys (see Betts) with the right attitude.

[Kimmi]

Losing Mookie would be like losing our heart and soul plus all the numbers.

 

I know, we just proved we could win without Big Papi, our former heart & soul guy, but losing Mookie would be a cliff by itself.

 

Would losing Mookie create more of a cliff than tying $300+ million up in a single player would?

[Bellhorn04]

Would losing Mookie create more of a cliff than tying $300+ million up in a single player would?

 

300+ million for Mookie is more likely to help create a cliff somewhere around 2025 or 2026.

[Kimmi]

300+ million for Mookie is more likely to help create a cliff somewhere around 2025 or 2026.

 

Possibly. But Mookie cannot win a championship by himself.

[Bellhorn04]

Possibly. But Mookie cannot win a championship by himself.

 

It's a tough question. First you have to look at the AAV. $35 million or even a bit more? It certainly takes a huge chunk out of the budget. But if he stays healthy and plays up to his capabilities he could be an 8 WAR player for 5 years or more. FanGraphs says 8 WAR is worth about $65 million or something. So that's surplus value.

 

Of course the length of the contract is almost certain to come back to haunt.

[Kimmi]

It's a tough question. First you have to look at the AAV. $35 million or even a bit more? It certainly takes a huge chunk out of the budget. But if he stays healthy and plays up to his capabilities he could be an 8 WAR player for 5 years or more. FanGraphs says 8 WAR is worth about $65 million or something. So that's surplus value.

 

Of course the length of the contract is almost certain to come back to haunt.

 

Fair post, Mr. Bellhorn.

[dgalehouse]

He's really missed in the area Theo and Ben did very well in- the international free agent market.

 

Doubront

Dice-K

Okajima

Tazawa

Iggy

Montas

Bogey

J Aro

Lin

Margot

Espinoza

Moncada

Devers

D Hernandez (5th ranked now)

Guerra, Dubon, the Basabes and others used in trades to get key pieces.

 

Now, DD inherited a season of being banned from signings, but he's still had two years and only has Hector Velazquez to show for it. True, The Flores death was horrible, and there are some promising, and mostly very young, prospects with the jury still out, but according to soxprospects.com, these are our top int'l prospects:

 

7) B Mata 19

8) A Flores 18

14) Danny Diaz 17

20) G Jimenez 18

 

Like I said, some promise, but it's a long way away, and a big gap between Devers and the next one.

 

This is an example of how much harder the system has gotten, and why I don't think it will be as easy as some seem to think it will be to quickly rebuild the farm while we keep winning and spending large every year.

 

It has been our savior for nearly a decade.

 

A staggering amount of money was spent on DiceK , Castillo and Moncada.

[notin]

P

A staggering amount of money was spent on DiceK , Castillo and Moncada.

 

Moncada was turned into Sale, so that money was well spent. If the Red Sox didn’t have Moncada, the White Sox likely would have insisted on Benintendi (reportedly their top choice) in that trade...

[moonslav59]

Would losing Mookie create more of a cliff than tying $300+ million up in a single player would?

 

Hard to tell. We saved untold millions with the Dodger dump trade, and we won a 2013 ring with some of the money spent, but the rest was largely wasted.

 

Maybe we can offer him a $300M over 60 years, so the AVV would just be $5M. (LOL)

Edited November 28, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

A staggering amount of money was spent on DiceK , Castillo and Moncada.

 

Yes, counting the posting fee ($51M) for Dice-K and the 100% tax on Moncada ($31M) it was a whopper!

 

We did save some market value on Sale's contract, but that pales against the total cost of those 3.

[notin]

Hard to tell. We saved untold millions with the Didger dump trade, and we won a 2013 ring with some of the money spent, but the rest was largely wasted.

 

Maybe we can offer him a $300M over 60 years, so the AVV would just be $5M. (LOL)

 

 

And for the last 50 years, it’s just $1 per year.

 

I wonder who would freak out on a contract like that. If it was $29,999,995 for each of the first 10 years and then $1 recurring player options for the next 50 years....

[moonslav59]

And for the last 50 years, it’s just $1 per year.

 

I wonder who would freak out on a contract like that. If it was $29,999,995 for each of the first 10 years and then $1 recurring player options for the next 50 years....

 

Maybe something like $250M for the first 10 and $1M a year for the next 50 years. Henry won't be the owner by then, so it's not his money.