A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

Almost certainly. It will be near impossible to to this. It was as perfect a season as we could have dreamt.

 

But then, they can still win it all without being as good. I can live with a 105 win team (as long as the Yankees win 104 or less)...

[notin]

Thanks.

 

Then, that puts us over day one, before any signings, although a couple non-tenders can cure that.

 

I seriously doubt DD will be instructed to reset the tax in 2019. The window is still wide open, so my guess is we will get near or even go over the $246M penalty phase. If we want to come up just short, then we'll have about $36M to spend. We'll likely keep some for mid season deals, so realistically the winter spending budget might, and I emphasize "might" because we don't know what Henry will want to spend next year, be around $30-32M.

 

Is this possible?

$12M x 4 Eovaldi

$7M x 4 Kelly

$7M x 3 Pearce

$4-6M on a lefty RP'er

 

Basically, the same team as 2018 minus Kimbrel.

 

I also wonder if going after a full time 1b might be one way to upgrade. Pass is WS hero Pearce, move Moreland to the bench, and signing (Matt Adams? There isn’t much else.) or trading (for Jose Abreu?) might be an option.

 

It would certainly be an unpopular move today, given what Pearce did for this team. But it might be a better move for next season...

[a700hitter]

A realistic view of 2019.

 

We will not be as good as we were in 2018.

Or maybe the 2019 Red Sox team will be known as the Big Red Sox Machine.

[notin]

Or maybe the 2019 Red Sox team will be known as the Big Red Sox Machine.

 

Feels taken...

[sk7326]

Or maybe the 2019 Red Sox team will be known as the Big Red Sox Machine.

 

They could be every bit the team they were qualitatively this year and win significantly fewer games - in fact, that is almost certain.

[moonslav59]

I also wonder if going after a full time 1b might be one way to upgrade. Pass is WS hero Pearce, move Moreland to the bench, and signing (Matt Adams? There isn’t much else.) or trading (for Jose Abreu?) might be an option.

 

It would certainly be an unpopular move today, given what Pearce did for this team. But it might be a better move for next season...

 

I'm wondering, if DD is looking at one from this group to step up and win the 1B job by 2020. If yes, maybe he won't go all out and acquire a 1Bman with 2+ years of team control.

 

Chavis (Might be the closest of these 4 to being able to significantly contribute in 2019.)

 

Ockimey (The only one from this group that bats LH'd and might platoon well with Pearce, once Moreland's deal is up.)

 

Dalbec (If his defense at 3B is better than Devers, then maybe Devers goes to 1B)

 

Travis (his ship has probably already sailed.)

 

(Maybe Devers to 1B is still a thought)

[moonslav59]

Or maybe the 2019 Red Sox team will be known as the Big Red Sox Machine.

 

How about, "The Killer Beans?"

[a700hitter]

How about, "The Killer Beans?"

Ok. I can go with that.

[moonslav59]

Ok. I can go with that.

 

We just have to have JD change his name to "Bartinez", Devers to "Bevers" and maybe Chris Sale to Chris "Bale."

[a700hitter]

We just have to have JD change his name to "Bartinez", Devers to "Bevers" and maybe Chris Sale to Chris "Bale."

New jersey sales!!

[Hitch]

But then, they can still win it all without being as good. I can live with a 105 win team (as long as the Yankees win 104 or less)...

 

Absolutely. I still feel we will be one of the three or four teams most likely to win it. I'd take sneaking in through the wild card game if it meant a repeat.

[mvp 78]

Absolutely. I still feel we will be one of the three or four teams most likely to win it. I'd take sneaking in through the wild card game if it meant a repeat.

 

Won't be necessary. Back to back to back to back.

[a700hitter]

Won't be necessary. Back to back to back to back.

NY Yankee fans head will explode which would make it even sweeter. I get to watch it up close and personal.

[mvp 78]

NY Yankee fans head will explode which would make it even sweeter. I get to watch it up close and personal.

 

We'll hear: wait til next year. "We're going to sign Goldschmidt, Arenado and JD Martinez!"

[notin]

I'm wondering, if DD is looking at one from this group to step up and win the 1B job by 2020. If yes, maybe he won't go all out and acquire a 1Bman with 2+ years of team control.

 

Chavis (Might be the closest of these 4 to being able to significantly contribute in 2019.)

 

Ockimey (The only one from this group that bats LH'd and might platoon well with Pearce, once Moreland's deal is up.)

 

Dalbec (If his defense at 3B is better than Devers, then maybe Devers goes to 1B)

 

Travis (his ship has probably already sailed.)

 

(Maybe Devers to 1B is still a thought)

 

Another thought is that signing Pearce does go a long way to blocking Chavis, who is the Sox top ranked prospect and one of the most MLB-ready. If anything, since Chavis missed a lot of 2018, should Boston be a little more conservative in their search for a weak side platoon player for 1b? Either Swihart or Travis might fit that need...

[mvp 78]

Another thought is that signing Pearce does go a long way to blocking Chavis, who is the Sox top ranked prospect and one of the most MLB-ready. If anything, since Chavis missed a lot of 2018, should Boston be a little more conservative in their search for a weak side platoon player for 1b? Either Swihart or Travis might fit that need...

 

Chavis seems very injury prone. Maybe he'll be trade bait. I can't see Travis making the roster next year.

[notin]

We just have to have JD change his name to "Bartinez", Devers to "Bevers" and maybe Chris Sale to Chris "Bale."

 

Isn’t Chris Bale Batman?

[notin]

Chavis seems very injury prone. Maybe he'll be trade bait. I can't see Travis making the roster next year.

 

Is Chavis injury prone or just recovering more slowly without his steroids?

 

Travis’ ceiling is definitely weak side platoon stopgap. So, yes, he is a long shot.

 

And if nothing else, maybe that leaves a clear role for Swihart...

[mvp 78]

Is Chavis injury prone or just recovering more slowly without his steroids?

 

Travis’ ceiling is definitely weak side platoon stopgap. So, yes, he is a long shot.

 

And if nothing else, maybe that leaves a clear role for Swihart...

 

His injury history extends prior to the roid stuff.

[moonslav59]

Another thought is that signing Pearce does go a long way to blocking Chavis, who is the Sox top ranked prospect and one of the most MLB-ready. If anything, since Chavis missed a lot of 2018, should Boston be a little more conservative in their search for a weak side platoon player for 1b? Either Swihart or Travis might fit that need...

 

Trading Chavis would unblock him.

[notin]

Trading Chavis would unblock him.

 

Yes, but he is among the few minimum wage options the Sox have and therefore frees up cash to spend elsewhere...

[mvp 78]

Chavis is weird as he has a reverse split against LHP. He's a RHB that has generally had better success against RHP. That doesn't play well in a platoon. I think he's a guy that needs to really add to his defensive versatility.

[Nick]

I know it won't happen but my dream scenario is for Pedey to retire, move Betts to 2B, JD to OF and sign a power bat (Betre) to DH for 1 yr 10M deal.

 

I just want to see it for 1 yr.

[moonslav59]

I know it won't happen but my dream scenario is for Pedey to retire, move Betts to 2B, JD to OF and sign a power bat (Betre) to DH for 1 yr 10M deal.

 

I just want to see it for 1 yr.

 

I'd see that as a nightmare.

 

JD would get hurt tripping over himself. Betts would get spiked by Machado the Yankee, and Beltre would need micro surgery on his knee.

[mvp 78]

I know it won't happen but my dream scenario is for Pedey to retire, move Betts to 2B, JD to OF and sign a power bat (Betre) to DH for 1 yr 10M deal.

 

I just want to see it for 1 yr.

 

Betts is perfect for RF now. He can transition back to 2b in his mid 30's.

[moonslav59]

Yes, but he is among the few minimum wage options the Sox have and therefore frees up cash to spend elsewhere...

 

How about trading Chavis, Johnson and Swihart for a pre-arb better 5th starter or pen arm?

 

You know a lot of players from other teams. Who can we get for that trio?

[moonslav59]

Betts is perfect for RF now. He can transition back to 2b in his mid 30's.

 

I'm thinking OF is easier to grow old in. Maybe he moves to LF in Fenway at age 39.

[moonslav59]

Chavis is weird as he has a reverse split against LHP. He's a RHB that has generally had better success against RHP. That doesn't play well in a platoon. I think he's a guy that needs to really add to his defensive versatility.

 

I doubt he can ever play 2B well enough for the bigs.

 

3B is blocked, unless he can out field Devers and force him to 1B (doubtful).

 

That pretty much leaves 1B, DH and OF, of which only 1B has room for playing time over the next 2 years. 2019 needs a 1Bman vs LHPs, and 2020 needs a FT 1Bman.

 

There's nothing weird about his splits. The 2018 AAA sample size is puny.

 

vs RHPs: .917 (24 ABs)

vs LHPs: .644 (9 ABs)

 

Look at AA in 2018 (small too)

vs R .880 (97)

vs L .964 (25)

 

2017

A+

vs R: 1.009 (152)

vs L: 1.073 (71)

 

AA

vs R: .846 (203)

vs L: .602 (45)

 

2016

vs R: .674 (223)

vs L: .858 (56)

 

It looks like he's never balanced, but overall, he's pretty close to even vs lefties and righties.

 

[harmony]

I doubt he can ever play 2B well enough for the bigs.

 

3B is blocked, unless he can out field Devers and force him to 1B (doubtful).

 

That pretty much leaves 1B, DH and OF, of which only 1B has room for playing time over the next 2 years. 2019 needs a 1Bman vs LHPs, and 2020 needs a FT 1Bman.

 

There's nothing weird about his splits. The 2018 AAA sample size is puny.

 

vs RHPs: .917 (24 ABs)

vs LHPs: .644 (9 ABs)

 

Look at AA in 2018 (small too)

vs R .880 (97)

vs L .964 (25)

 

2017

A+

vs R: 1.009 (152)

vs L: 1.073 (71)

 

AA

vs R: .846 (203)

vs L: .602 (45)

 

2016

vs R: .674 (223)

vs L: .858 (56)

 

It looks like he's never balanced, but overall, he's pretty close to even vs lefties and righties.

 

FanGraphs gives Michael Chavis a modest Future Value of 45:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B

 

Top prospects have a Future Value of 70:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-updated-top-131-prospect-rankings/

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs gives Michael Chavis a modest Future Value of 45:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B

 

Top prospects have a Future Value of 70:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-updated-top-131-prospect-rankings/

 

I never called him a top MLB prospect or said we'd get something great for Chavis, Johnson and Swihart. I'm just hoping for a better 5/6 starter than Johnson.