And the off season begins (2018-19)

[S5Dewey]

Exactly.

 

I want a guy I can have faith protecting a one run lead in a second and third with one out jam and the 3-4-5 hitters up. Rather than using anyone there and saving my closer for the ninth to face the 6-7-8 hitters...

 

On a philosophical basis, yes. However, there are two problems with that philosophy.

 

First if a team has both Kimbrel and say, Kenley Jansen, one to close and the other to put out an early fire, a manager has the potential to burn up his bullpen in a hurry if his starters get in trouble early.

 

Second, you don't know who's going to be up in the 9th. if you burn up both of those guys early in the game and you're facing 3-4-5 with a 1-run lead you're probably wanting a real closer to... close.

[Bellhorn04]

On a philosophical basis, yes. However, there are two problems with that philosophy.

 

First if a team has both Kimbrel and say, Kenley Jansen, one to close and the other to put out an early fire, a manager has the potential to burn up his bullpen in a hurry if his starters get in trouble early.

 

Second, you don't know who's going to be up in the 9th. if you burn up both of those guys early in the game and you're facing 3-4-5 with a 1-run lead you're probably wanting a real closer to... close.

 

In 2017 the Guardians were doing this with their best reliever, Andrew Miller in the role of 'relief ace', and Cody Allen in the role of closer. It worked well, but of course it only worked well because Miller and Allen were both at the top of their games.

[dgalehouse]

Using your best reliever to escape a jam in an earlier inning is something that will probably be tried more often as more managers are being more or less told what they should do . It will be interesting to see if it catches on . There is certainly a difference of opinion between the old and new schools on the relative difficulty of getting the last three outs . When Tony LaRussa was questioned as to whether Lee Smith deserved to be in the Hall of Fame ; he answered by saying that some people did not understand the difficulty in closing .

[notin]

In 2017 the Guardians were doing this with their best reliever, Andrew Miller in the role of 'relief ace', and Cody Allen in the role of closer. It worked well, but of course it only worked well because Miller and Allen were both at the top of their games.

 

 

It’s reportedly how Kapler plans on using Robertson in Philadelphia, while using Seranthony Dominguez or Hector Neris to get the saves...

[Kimmi]

Exactly what I’ve been saying.

 

The trend the past few years is this is becoming a game of bullpens. With starters averaging about 5 IP, per start, worrying about inning 6 through 8 is becoming more important than focusing solely on the 9th...

 

I am on board with most of what you say.

[Kimmi]

On a philosophical basis, yes. However, there are two problems with that philosophy.

 

First if a team has both Kimbrel and say, Kenley Jansen, one to close and the other to put out an early fire, a manager has the potential to burn up his bullpen in a hurry if his starters get in trouble early.

 

Second, you don't know who's going to be up in the 9th. if you burn up both of those guys early in the game and you're facing 3-4-5 with a 1-run lead you're probably wanting a real closer to... close.

 

But it also doesn't make much sense to save your best reliever for a situation that never comes. I would hate to lose a game in the 7th or 8th inning with my best reliever sitting on the bench.

[Bosock1]

But it also doesn't make much sense to save your best reliever for a situation that never comes. I would hate to lose a game in the 7th or 8th inning with my best reliever sitting on the bench.

 

You would also hate to have a six game streak of one run losses caused by 7th and 8th inning rallies in which you never called in the cavalry.

 

I think that, given all the analytics and data, there is going to be a more sophisticated usage of your best relievers from now on then "when it's technically a save op, 1-3 run lead," etc.

 

Managers and pitching coaches and relief pitchers, I know, love that....there are roles, no one has to get second-guessed in a media scrum when you lose one. But the REALITY is.....

 

Say, you have two top guns, one righty fireballer, one lefty groundballer, each who you are fine getting four outs but don't want to stretch to two innings.....and your starter runs into trouble in the middle of the seventh. Now, you could just go "setup guy!" even if there are three reverse platoons coming up who have bizarrely killed him over his otherwise stellar career. That's the current methodology.

 

Or you put your beanies on, figure out shifts and batter tendencies and who they have on their bench, days of rest and park factors and all that cr@p, and some guy that looks like Radar O'Reilly texts you the correct call from the bowels of the clubhouse.

 

You know that is the way it HAS to be in the near future. The public and media are too well informed. Even if you go against the numbers and win, there is going to be a big analysis with a whiff of "he was lucky."

 

Once Pandora's Box was opened and teams started breaking the stereotype closer title, this is the inevitable, and correct, path.

 

Once someone starts quoting Tony LaRussa as to the personality aspect of something that goes against the numbers, that argument is deader than the reputation of Grady Little's gut.

Edited January 4, 2019 by Bosock1

[dgalehouse]

You would also hate to have a six game streak of one run losses caused by 7th and 8th inning rallies in which you never called in the cavalry.

 

I think that, given all the analytics and data, there is going to be a more sophisticated usage of your best relievers from now on then "when it's technically a save op, 1-3 run lead," etc.

 

Managers and pitching coaches and relief pitchers, I know, love that....there are roles, no one has to get second-guessed in a media scrum when you lose one. But the REALITY is.....

 

Say, you have two top guns, one righty fireballer, one lefty groundballer, each who you are fine getting four outs but don't want to stretch to two innings.....and your starter runs into trouble in the middle of the seventh. Now, you could just go "setup guy!" even if there are three reverse platoons coming up who have bizarrely killed him over his otherwise stellar career. That's the current methodology.

 

Or you put your beanies on, figure out shifts and batter tendencies and who they have on their bench, days of rest and park factors and all that cr@p, and some guy that looks like Radar O'Reilly texts you the correct call from the bowels of the clubhouse.

 

You know that is the way it HAS to be in the near future. The public and media are too well informed. Even if you go against the numbers and win, there is going to be a big analysis with a whiff of "he was lucky."

 

Once Pandora's Box was opened and teams started breaking the stereotype closer title, this is the inevitable, and correct, path.

 

Once someone starts quoting Tony LaRussa as to the personality aspect of something that goes against the numbers, that argument is deader than the reputation of Grady Little's gut.

 

Well Tony LaRussa is Dombrowski's right hand man . He is a Hall of Famer with four World Series rings . Four times manager of the year . Managed six All Star teams. Third winningest manager in history . I would think his opinion would have some value .

[notin]

On a philosophical basis, yes. However, there are two problems with that philosophy.

 

First if a team has both Kimbrel and say, Kenley Jansen, one to close and the other to put out an early fire, a manager has the potential to burn up his bullpen in a hurry if his starters get in trouble early.

 

Second, you don't know who's going to be up in the 9th. if you burn up both of those guys early in the game and you're facing 3-4-5 with a 1-run lead you're probably wanting a real closer to... close.

 

Well if your starters get in trouble early, burning up the bullpen might be the only option. But a manager does have to be smart. Burning out the bullpen chasing unwinnable games can cost a team the next game or two as well.

 

Even not knowing whose up in the ninth, the idea of saving the best reliever for the last inning “just in case good hitters are up” probably costs teams more wins in the sixth and seventh than are typically lost in the ninth. (I have no data here, but if need be I will get some.)

 

Really one of the big reasons the closer strategy is such a waste of resources is the usage solely as a ninth inning specialist, and one who starts a clean inning the majority of the time. So odds are strongly in his favor regardless of who comes up.

 

As a manager, part of the job is knowing when the game is truly on the line. We are seeing managers around MLB starting to use the “high leverage specialist. Francona used Miller that way in Cleveland. (Remember him brining Miller in in the 5th inning against Boston in the postseason?). Kapler plans to use Robertson. Trevino in Oakland was also the high leverage guy. Ditto Hader in Milwaukee. It’s catching on...

[TylerD]

Looks like Atlanta has a good chance at snaggin Kimbrel.

[moonslav59]

Looks like Atlanta has a good chance at snaggin Kimbrel.

 

Better than an AL team.

[Kimmi]

You would also hate to have a six game streak of one run losses caused by 7th and 8th inning rallies in which you never called in the cavalry.

 

I think that, given all the analytics and data, there is going to be a more sophisticated usage of your best relievers from now on then "when it's technically a save op, 1-3 run lead," etc.

 

Managers and pitching coaches and relief pitchers, I know, love that....there are roles, no one has to get second-guessed in a media scrum when you lose one. But the REALITY is.....

 

Say, you have two top guns, one righty fireballer, one lefty groundballer, each who you are fine getting four outs but don't want to stretch to two innings.....and your starter runs into trouble in the middle of the seventh. Now, you could just go "setup guy!" even if there are three reverse platoons coming up who have bizarrely killed him over his otherwise stellar career. That's the current methodology.

 

Or you put your beanies on, figure out shifts and batter tendencies and who they have on their bench, days of rest and park factors and all that cr@p, and some guy that looks like Radar O'Reilly texts you the correct call from the bowels of the clubhouse.

 

You know that is the way it HAS to be in the near future. The public and media are too well informed. Even if you go against the numbers and win, there is going to be a big analysis with a whiff of "he was lucky."

 

Once Pandora's Box was opened and teams started breaking the stereotype closer title, this is the inevitable, and correct, path.

 

Once someone starts quoting Tony LaRussa as to the personality aspect of something that goes against the numbers, that argument is deader than the reputation of Grady Little's gut.

 

One of the things about analytics is being able to get the players and the coaches to buy into it. If they don't believe in it, then they tend not to work as well.

 

Relief pitchers have traditionally operated with a set role in mind. They want to know what their role is and know what inning they are coming into. I get that. Now the task is to change that mentality into the idea of 'relief aces', for lack of a better term. I think bullpens are headed in that direction.

 

That said, one difficulty in that approach comes with getting relievers warming up in time and also with not having them get up and down too many times.

[Kimmi]

Well Tony LaRussa is Dombrowski's right hand man . He is a Hall of Famer with four World Series rings . Four times manager of the year . Managed six All Star teams. Third winningest manager in history . I would think his opinion would have some value .

 

Hmmm. I wonder if the team would have won the WS this year without LaRussa.

[Kimmi]

Looks like Atlanta has a good chance at snaggin Kimbrel.

 

Could be. But I'm also reading that the Red Sox are the current favorites for getting Kimbrel.

[notin]

Could be. But I'm also reading that the Red Sox are the current favorites for getting Kimbrel.

 

And some feel Philadelphia might get back involved if they don't sign Harper or Machado

 

 

https://calltothepen.com/2019/01/04/philadelphia-phillies-craig-kimbrel-consolation-prize/ ...

[dgalehouse]

And some feel Philadelphia might get back involved if they don't sign Harper or Machado

 

 

https://calltothepen.com/2019/01/04/philadelphia-phillies-craig-kimbrel-consolation-prize/ ...

 

I mentioned the Phils yesterday. You said , no way ." They are already overcrowded in the bullpen. " I think the Phillies are itching to spend. And Harper and Machado are not looking likely for them. They might decide to build a strong bullpen.

[notin]

I mentioned the Phils yesterday. You said , no way ." They are already overcrowded in the bullpen. " I think the Phillies are itching to spend. And Harper and Machado are not looking likely for them. They might decide to build a strong bullpen.

 

I know.

 

That was before I found that blog post. The one I read yesterday had them dumping bullpen pieces and today someone else has them acquiring more. The funny thing is, neither might be right.

 

The Phillies also might turn to Keuchel or Pollock. Here it is January 5, and almost no one has been significantly linked to either star player...

[harmony]

A Milwaukee blogger eyes Xander Bogaerts:

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/1/2/18165287/milwaukee-brewers-trade-target-xander-bogaerts-boston-red-sox

[notin]

V

A Milwaukee blogger eyes Xander Bogaerts:

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/1/2/18165287/milwaukee-brewers-trade-target-xander-bogaerts-boston-red-sox

 

 

It was interesting the way he kept talking everything down. “The Brewers really need Bogaerts!! But shouldn’t give up anything to get him!! Boston will take scraps!!! Arcia and Barnes! And we need to get more back!!’”

[notin]

A Milwaukee blogger eyes Xander Bogaerts:

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/1/2/18165287/milwaukee-brewers-trade-target-xander-bogaerts-boston-red-sox

 

 

If Boston was to cut some salary, Milwaukee does make sense as a partner for Bogaerts. But DDmight have to be dazzled until he learns whether or not he can wait out the relief market...

[Northern Star]

Can we get Travis Shaw back?

[oldtimer]

Can we get Travis Shaw back?

 

Maybe for scraps?

[Northern Star]

Bad trades bother me, but only if a team I like is on the receiving end. Otherwise, they're hilarious. Right, Dave? [stewart].

[Kimmi]

And some feel Philadelphia might get back involved if they don't sign Harper or Machado

 

 

https://calltothepen.com/2019/01/04/philadelphia-phillies-craig-kimbrel-consolation-prize/ ...

 

In other words, nobody really knows squat.

[Kimmi]

A Milwaukee blogger eyes Xander Bogaerts:

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/1/2/18165287/milwaukee-brewers-trade-target-xander-bogaerts-boston-red-sox

 

Trading Bogaerts makes some sense, but as an attached fan, I really hope the Sox don't trade him.

[notin]

But

In other words, nobody really knows squat.

 

Well, a lot of these blogs are written by people no more informed than us...

[jacksonianmarch]

In terms of big name free agent relievers, the sox options are down to Ottavino and Kimbrel. I assume the Yanks are not in on either at this point. With Philly signing KRob, they might be out on those two as well, although you never know. The Rockies are losing Ottavino, but they wont have the financial space, most likely, because they went out and spent on relief busts prior to 2018 and need to eat that money rather than pay a guy who proved he could do it in Colorado.

[moonslav59]

Maybe we can get both Allen and Brach on one year deals.

[jacksonianmarch]

Maybe we can get both Allen and Brach on one year deals.

 

Allen saw a velocity drop, a K rate drop, a BB rate rise and a HR rate skyrocket in a bad 2018. If you want to hitch your wagon to him, go for it. He has always been a big HR rate guy. I would love that for you

[jacksonianmarch]

Brach also saw his BB rate spike, his K rate drop and a velocity drop.