And the off season begins (2018-19)

[notin]

I want JD batting 4th. I'd be okay with a .370 OBP Pedey up 3rd, but I like Bogey more. He's improving and has more speed.

 

Cora seemed to like Bogaerts in the fifth spot. The third spot is wide open.

 

Most likely the status quo approach with Moreland/Pearce. But if the Sox can get a three hitter - and why not Pedroia - it stretches the lineup that much more...

[moonslav59]

Cora seemed to like Bogaerts in the fifth spot. The third spot is wide open.

 

Most likely the status quo approach with Moreland/Pearce. But if the Sox can get a three hitter - and why not Pedroia - it stretches the lineup that much more...

 

I think Bogey really came into his own this year and is ready for a step up to a higher demanding line-up slot. His better power and speed/base running skills, to me, makes him a better 3 slot hitter than Pedey.

 

Batting Pedey 6th or 7th lengthens the line-up, too, especially if he can maintain a .365 OBP.

[kenmeister]

If Pedroia is healthy and productive here is my preferred lineup:

 

1. Benitendi

2. Bogaerts

3. Betts

4. Martinez

5. Pedroia

6. Devers

7. Bradley Jr

8. Moreland / Pearce

9. Vazquez

[moonslav59]

If Pedroia is healthy and productive here is my preferred lineup:

 

1. Benitendi

2. Bogaerts

3. Betts

4. Martinez

5. Pedroia

6. Devers

7. Bradley Jr

8. Moreland / Pearce

9. Vazquez

 

I used to think the best hitter should bat 3rd, but not anymore. It really is not the best slot for Betts or JD.

 

In theory Betts should bat 2nd and JD 4th.

[notin]

I used to think the best hitter should bat 3rd, but not anymore. It really is not the best slot for Betts or JD.

 

In theory Betts should bat 2nd and JD 4th.

 

Or first. The Betts-Benintendi 1-2 punch did lead to a World Series title...

[moonslav59]

Or first. The Betts-Benintendi 1-2 punch did lead to a World Series title...

 

I'm fine with Betts first. It's nice having power there, too.

 

Apparently, the theory is that your best hitter bats 2nd and your next best (with more power, maybe) hits 4th. That would mean Betts 2nd and JD 4th. The theory also says the 5th slot is more important than the 3rd slot, so maybe Moreland/Pearce up 3rd is by that book.

 

1. Beni

2. Betts

3. Moreland/Pearce (or Pedey)

4. JD

5. Bogey

6. Devers

7. Pedey

8. JBJ

9. Vaz/Leon

 

(Maybe put Bogey up 1st vs LHPs. Maybe move Devers to 5th vs RHPs.)

[kenmeister]

Or first. The Betts-Benintendi 1-2 punch did lead to a World Series title...

 

Just because the Red Sox won the World Series did not convince me that the classic lineup of best hitter going 3rd is wrong. But I do think having your strongest OBP guys hitting 1st-3rd makes sense, and Betts has great OBP numbers and steals, so hitting him first does make good sense in that respect. It's almost like the 30 homers are a bonus.

[cp176]

Just because the Red Sox won the World Series did not convince me that the classic lineup of best hitter going 3rd is wrong. But I do think having your strongest OBP guys hitting 1st-3rd makes sense, and Betts has great OBP numbers and steals, so hitting him first does make good sense in that respect. It's almost like the 30 homers are a bonus.

 

It is like every statistic that can be quoted now by roughly 3 people here will now pop up to show what a foolish idea it is to bat your best hitter third. I am with you though because to this point I am just not sure what exactly constitutes your best hitter. 3rd or 4th works fine for me. With respect to our Sox team, I'm fine with Betts leading off if he feels comfortable there. It seemed to work.

[moonslav59]

Just because the Red Sox won the World Series did not convince me that the classic lineup of best hitter going 3rd is wrong. But I do think having your strongest OBP guys hitting 1st-3rd makes sense, and Betts has great OBP numbers and steals, so hitting him first does make good sense in that respect. It's almost like the 30 homers are a bonus.

 

Most recent studiews show the 3 slot is not the ideal spot for the best hitter.

 

 

The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of.

[kenmeister]

Most recent studiews show the 3 slot is not the ideal spot for the best hitter.

 

 

The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of.

 

Common sense tells you that if batters #1 and #2 are high on-base percentage guys (like the old Wade Boggs / Jody Reed tandum), your #3-#5 hitters should be capable of knocking them in. Especially if the #9 hitter has a decent on-base percentage too.

 

Betts is great like I said earlier because he has both a high OBP and slugging, so he can fill either the table setter or producer roles.

 

I certainly thought the games in the playoffs where Xander hit third the lineup looked very strong, so I could be down for:

 

Betts/Benitendi/Bogaerts/Martinez/... as the top 4.

[vjcsmoke]

Let's talk about free agency. Can the Red Sox afford to add any impact free agents.

 

I just read an article suggesting we go after Yasmani Grandal for say a 3/39 deal.

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/11/26/18107109/red-sox-free-agent-target-yasmani-grandal-vazquez-swihart-leon

 

He would definitely be an upgrade at the catcher position, but with the Red Sox payroll figure hanging around the 149m mark, can we actually afford to make such a move?

[moonslav59]

Let's talk about free agency. Can the Red Sox afford to add any impact free agents.

 

I just read an article suggesting we go after Yasmani Grandal for say a 3/39 deal.

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/11/26/18107109/red-sox-free-agent-target-yasmani-grandal-vazquez-swihart-leon

 

He would definitely be an upgrade at the catcher position, but with the Red Sox payroll figure hanging around the 149m mark, can we actually afford to make such a move?

 

No way. He is not a good defender.

[vjcsmoke]

It's now rumored that Noah Syndergaard could be on the trading block. He has the stuff and all the peripheral stats... when healthy.

 

Should Dombrowski make a move to add one more starting pitcher via trade, who is still arb eligible and under control until 2021, or do we throw a bunch of money at Eovaldi?

[moonslav59]

It's now rumored that Noah Syndergaard could be on the trading block. He has the stuff and all the peripheral stats... when healthy.

 

Should Dombrowski make a move to add one more starting pitcher via trade, who is still arb eligible and under control until 2021, or do we throw a bunch of money at Eovaldi?

 

We don't have the prospects needed to get him. We'd have to trade Beni or Devers just to get them listening.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's talk about free agency. Can the Red Sox afford to add any impact free agents.

 

I just read an article suggesting we go after Yasmani Grandal for say a 3/39 deal.

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/11/26/18107109/red-sox-free-agent-target-yasmani-grandal-vazquez-swihart-leon

 

He would definitely be an upgrade at the catcher position, but with the Red Sox payroll figure hanging around the 149m mark, can we actually afford to make such a move?

 

Not sure where you're getting 149m from.

 

With projected arb raises, we are already over the lux tax threshold of 206m.

 

You read that right.

[vjcsmoke]

No way. He is not a good defender.

 

What metric do you use to come to that conclusion?

 

Over the past 3 seasons, comparing dWar he is comparable to both Vaquez and Leon, while having a significantly higher OWar:

 

Vazquez

dWar .3, .3, .2

oWar -.2, 1.4, -.4

 

Leon

dWar .8, 1.3, .9

oWar 2.5, 0, -.9

 

Grandal

dWar .7, 1.2, .6

oWar 2.7, 1.7, 3.5

[vjcsmoke]

We don't have the prospects needed to get him. We'd have to trade Beni or Devers just to get them listening.

 

Would trading Devers be worth adding such a high quality pitcher? I know it's tough to trade a position player but Devers is far from established but he is viewed as the future of the 3rd base position for now.

[Dojji]

What metric do you use to come to that conclusion?

 

Over the past 3 seasons, comparing dWar he is comparable to both Vaquez and Leon, while having a significantly higher OWar:

 

Vazquez

dWar .3, .3, .2

oWar -.2, 1.4, -.4

 

Leon

dWar .8, 1.3, .9

oWar 2.5, 0, -.9

 

Grandal

dWar .7, 1.2, .6

oWar 2.7, 1.7, 3.5

 

dWAR is very flawed when it comes to catchers, a lot of what catchers do is too subtle to be easily tracked statistically.

 

That said, Grandal has led the National League in Passed Balls three times. He is not a good receiver, which is something that's very tricky to track on a purely statistical level unless you get a real outlier, but Grandal's history makes it kind of obvious. If a pitcher can't trust his target it makes it just that much harder for them to use their best stuff, which is why having a mediocre receiver playing catcher is not good at all.

[Bellhorn04]

Would trading Devers be worth adding such a high quality pitcher? I know it's tough to trade a position player but Devers is far from established but he is viewed as the future of the 3rd base position for now.

 

Whoa, ease up. We are not trading Devers.

[Dojji]

Everything has its price. But Devers' obvious potential makes it hard to want to trade the man. He turned 21 this year and already has 30 home runs. He is absolutely worth working with and has true superstar potential

[moonslav59]

What metric do you use to come to that conclusion?

 

Over the past 3 seasons, comparing dWar he is comparable to both Vaquez and Leon, while having a significantly higher OWar:

 

Vazquez

dWar .3, .3, .2

oWar -.2, 1.4, -.4

 

Leon

dWar .8, 1.3, .9

oWar 2.5, 0, -.9

 

Grandal

dWar .7, 1.2, .6

oWar 2.7, 1.7, 3.5

 

These numbers don't count how well pitchers do with certain catchers. I'm not sure our pitchers would ever reach the comfort level they need with YG.

 

Besides, spending $13M at the catcher position would adversely affect what we can spend in higher need areas.

[Dojji]

Right now we're getting an adequate catching tandem for roughly 5M a year. That allows us to spend in other areas, especially the rotation.

[moonslav59]

Right now we're getting an adequate catching tandem for roughly 5M a year. That allows us to spend in other areas, especially the rotation.

 

..and the pen, too.

[kenmeister]

..and the pen, too.

 

I'd like to bring Andrew Miller back.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd like to bring Andrew Miller back.

 

I think he's on the radar.

[Kimmi]

His power has all but disappeared.

 

His OBP is his best offensive weapon at this point.

 

In 2017, his OBP was .369 and his SLG was barely higher at .392.

 

He hits in too many DPs to bat second. I think batting him 6th or 7th works best.

 

I like this...

 

1) Betts

 

2) Beni

 

3) Bogey

 

4) JD

 

5) Devers

 

6) Pedey v R/ Pearce v L

 

7) Moreland v R/ Pedey v L

 

8) JBJ

 

9) Vaz/Leon

 

 

 

The post I was responding to was asking where to place Pedroia under the assumption that he would return to hitting like he used to, in which case 3rd is a very logical spot to put him in. That said, when it comes to batting order, OBP is king. Pedroia's .369 OBP would have been one of the best on the team last year, in which case 3rd is still a very logical spot to put him in.

 

As an aside, I really like keeping JBJ in the 9 hole.

 

Also, it bears repeating that batting order doesn't matter that much, so I'll be happy with what Cora decides.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi , Quit making illogical suggestions. It doesn't suit you .

 

Ha.

[Kimmi]

Is putting a .370 OBP up in front of JDM and X really a bad suggestion? By the end of the year,Moreland and Pearce were hitting there...

 

Ha. Great minds.

[moonslav59]

The post I was responding to was asking where to place Pedroia under the assumption that he would return to hitting like he used to, in which case 3rd is a very logical spot to put him in. That said, when it comes to batting order, OBP is king. Pedroia's .369 OBP would have been one of the best on the team last year, in which case 3rd is still a very logical spot to put him in.

 

As an aside, I really like keeping JBJ in the 9 hole.

 

Also, it bears repeating that batting order doesn't matter that much, so I'll be happy with what Cora decides.

 

I assumed "hitting like he used to" meant like his last full season not like his MVP year.

 

2018 OBP with Pedey's 2017 season mixed in:

 

.438 Betts

.402 JD

.394 Pearce (w/BOS only)

.369 Pedey (2017)

.366 Beni

.362 Holt

.360 Bogey

.325 Moreland

 

As you can see, many players are close to Pedey's .369, except for Moreland, so maybe Pedey 3rd vs RHPs might do better than Moreland in that slot, but I still like Bogey up 3rd. The 5 slot gets more RBO opportunities than the 3, so keeping Bogey 5th is okay, but I like Devers up 5th going forward.

 

It's no biggie. Having Pedey back close to form is a great problem to have. The hard part may be getting Holt & Nunez enough PAs, not who bats where.

 

[YastrzemskI]

Not sure if this has been discussed on here yet but.. David Robertson is available and wants to play in and around the New England area.

The Red Sox should kick the tires on this at the very least.