Should Eovaldi be re-sign?

[Station 13]

That 7-10M is looking like 2-3 times as much now. Rich Hill got a pay day after leaving Boston.

[notin]

That 7-10M is looking like 2-3 times as much now. Rich Hill got a pay day after leaving Boston.

 

If you meant $7-10 mill per season for two years, you were probably right. Eovaldi has age on his side but a major injury history working against him.

 

Rich Hill left Boston the last time and received a one year $6mill contract from Oakland, which is hardly a "pay day". But it is a pretty good deal considering he only started 4 games for the Sox that year...

[cp176]

It will be interesting to see what happens with Eovaldi. 28 with a completely rebuilt and probably stronger arm than ever before. I certainly would like to see him come back. Can't stop replaying that fastball to Bregman to get him last night. 101.6!!! really - It was so dominant that it looked unfair.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm on board 100% with re-signing him. I'd love it. Whether it's a realistic possibility I have no idea.

[S5Dewey]

I'm on board 100% with re-signing him. I'd love it. Whether it's a realistic possibility I have no idea.

 

While nothing is certain it does seem like the Sox would have the inside track on resigning Evo. He's here and what's at rest tends to stay at rest, and winning sometimes creates happiness so he may be happy here.

 

I'm not expecting him to take a hometown discount to be here but we'd at least have first shot at him.

[Hitch]

His price has gone up big time, but I'd love him back. I really like the kid.

[notin]

His price has gone up big time, but I'd love him back. I really like the kid.

 

I’m honestly questioning this. He still has major health reasons that will suppress his price tag. This is s guy who missed all of 2017, after all.

 

Much like how no one ever gave a long term commitment to Brett Anderson, Eovaldi is probably looking at 2 years, which is the current trend for oft-injured pitchers...

[mvp 78]

I’m honestly questioning this. He still has major health reasons that will suppress his price tag. This is s guy who missed all of 2017, after all.

 

Much like how no one ever gave a long term commitment to Brett Anderson, Eovaldi is probably looking at 2 years, which is the current trend for oft-injured pitchers...

 

I would not be surprised if they let Kimbrel walk and signed Eovaldi to save $$$.

[S5Dewey]

I would not be surprised if they let Kimbrel walk and signed Eovaldi to save $$$.

 

IF Kimbrel pitches in the WS like he did last night letting him go in favor of Evoaldi would be a gutsy move.

[notin]

I would not be surprised if they let Kimbrel walk and signed Eovaldi to save $$$.

 

 

Me either. Kimbrel will certainly ask at least double what Eovaldi does. And it will be easier to find another closer than starter at that price...

[notin]

IF Kimbrel pitches in the WS like he did last night letting him go in favor of Evoaldi would be a gutsy move.

 

Why?

 

Kimbrel’s next contract is about what he can give you for the next 4-5 years, not about what he did for one week in October...

[jacksonianmarch]

Eovaldi just secured himself a long deal. Remember, he will turn 29 in February. He recovered completely from his latest TJS. His stuff is as good as ever. His cutter is making him deadly. Yes, it is part of a season, but he is proving to be a lion in the playoffs. Heck, he might end up in pinstripes, lol

[notin]

Eovaldi just secured himself a long deal. Remember, he will turn 29 in February. He recovered completely from his latest TJS. His stuff is as good as ever. His cutter is making him deadly. Yes, it is part of a season, but he is proving to be a lion in the playoffs. Heck, he might end up in pinstripes, lol

 

He’s already been in pinstripes and he spent most of that entire tenure on the disabled list.

 

Teams going higher than 2 years need to be prepared for him missing a full season’s worth of games.

 

Unless some team signs him to make him a closer. The reduced workload might agree with his arm...

[S5Dewey]

Why?

 

Kimbrel’s next contract is about what he can give you for the next 4-5 years, not about what he did for one week in October...

 

Because a player's contract isn't about what he did one week in October, it's about what he's done over his career. Lots of players are getting what Softlaw used to refer to as "wheelchair contracts" because GM's don't learn from observation. Case in point: Pablo Sandoval who was overweight and on the downside of his career.

 

If Kimbrel puts together a couple of solid high-stress innings in the WS he may have a couple of more good years in him and somebody will offer him a lot of $$ because of it. With another season in our 'window' DD just may decide that the devil you know is better than the devil you don't know and sign Kimbrel to one of those wheelchair contracts.

 

I hope not, but I can see how it could happen.

[notin]

Because a player's contract isn't about what he did one week in October, it's about what he's done over his career. Lots of players are getting what Softlaw used to refer to as "wheelchair contracts" because GM's don't learn from observation. Case in point: Pablo Sandoval who was overweight and on the downside of his career.

 

If Kimbrel puts together a couple of solid high-stress innings in the WS he may have a couple of more good years in him and somebody will offer him a lot of $$ because of it. With another season in our 'window' DD just may decide that the devil you know is better than the devil you don't know and sign Kimbrel to one of those wheelchair contracts.

 

I hope not, but I can see how it could happen.

 

Kimbrel might have a Cooperstown career ahead of him, but hopefully the decision to resign him and then hope he does isn’t going to be made based on his World Series performance. But he is a name player; he will get the contract he wants. And he very well might set records.

 

Right now he looks like Papelbon 2.0. Papelbon went out after a great World Series for Boston in his age 30 season (same as Kimbrel right now) and also wanted to be the highest paid closer ever. The Sox passed. Now, we’re the Sox right or wrong to pass on Papelbon?

[S5Dewey]

Kimbrel might have a Cooperstown career ahead of him, but hopefully the decision to resign him and then hope he does isn’t going to be made based on his World Series performance. But he is a name player; he will get the contract he wants. And he very well might set records.

 

Right now he looks like Papelbon 2.0. Papelbon went out after a great World Series for Boston in his age 30 season (same as Kimbrel right now) and also wanted to be the highest paid closer ever. The Sox passed. Now, we’re the Sox right or wrong to pass on Papelbon?

 

Obviously the Sox were right to pass on Papelbon but it's not realistic to base all negotiations for closers on Jonathan Papelbon. How old was Rivera when he signed his last contract?

[jacksonianmarch]

He’s already been in pinstripes and he spent most of that entire tenure on the disabled list.

 

Teams going higher than 2 years need to be prepared for him missing a full season’s worth of games.

 

Unless some team signs him to make him a closer. The reduced workload might agree with his arm...

 

He has had arm troubles, that much is for sure. Prior to blowing out his elbow, he started 60 games over 2 years and was on pace for another 30 game season when his elbow let loose

[notin]

Obviously the Sox were right to pass on Papelbon but it's not realistic to base all negotiations for closers on Jonathan Papelbon. How old was Rivera when he signed his last contract?

 

And that brings another possibility. Is Kimbrel closer to being Rivera than he is to bring Papelbon?

 

It certainly is much easier to be the next Papelbon, which is why I lean that way. Kimbrel’s entire second half this year was subpar for him. Was this just a blip? Or is it the start of a decline? It might cost $100mill or more to find out.

 

That’s a lofty price tag even if it’s just a blip...

[jacksonianmarch]

And that brings another possibility. Is Kimbrel closer to being Rivera than he is to bring Papelbon?

 

It certainly is much easier to be the next Papelbon, which is why I lean that way. Kimbrel’s entire second half this year was subpar for him. Was this just a blip? Or is it the start of a decline? It might cost $100mill or more to find out.

 

That’s a lofty price tag even if it’s just a blip...

 

Nobody is Rivera. You need to think about that. Kimbrel needs high end stuff and both pitches working or he becomes erratic. Rivera threw one pitch, which he located with perfection and did it for 18 seasons. Even when his velocity waned, he was effective. He retired at 43 years old mostly because he didn't want to keep doing it. Heck, he had a 2.11ERA as a 43 yr old with 44 saves. As good as he was during the regular season, he was better in the playoffs. In 141 post season innings, he allowed 2 homeruns. 11 runners scored on him in that time. He only walked 21 batters in those innings. What he did in the regular season will never be repeated. What he did in the post season is absolutely absurd and is effectively the best playoff performance over a career in any sport of all time.

[cp176]

i like eovaldi as a starting pitcher too much to stick him in the pen full time

[jacksonianmarch]

You almost need to try and re-sign him, although allocating capital towards him will remove some ability to retain some core pieces. Your squad got too left handed and when the biggest threat in the ALE demolishes lefties, you're gonna have to balance out. Kinda like how the sox struggle vs lefties and we tried to balance it out with suboptimal talent in Sabby and Happ

[notin]

Nobody is Rivera. You need to think about that. .

 

But that wasn't the question. The question was "Is he closer to Rivera than he is to Papelbon"?

 

At age 30, Kimbrel has been worth 19.1 fWAR

 

At age 30, Rivera was worth about 12 fWAR. But he also only had 4 seasons as a closer under his belt and fWAR numbers from the 1990's might be incomplete. Through his first 9 seasons (same number as Kimbrel )as a closer, Rivera was worth 17 fWAR.

 

At age 30, Papelbon was worth 14.2 fWAR by age 30 and 18.8 fWAR through 9 seasons as a closer.

 

To me, Kimbrel looks a lot like Papelbon 2.0, and as the future is unknown, using a close parallel is one way to try to evaluate it. (It's actually the basis of the entire PECOTA projection system.)

[notin]

i like eovaldi as a starting pitcher too much to stick him in the pen full time

 

And there is precedent for not making a pitcher with injury issues a closer. The Cubs tried to go that route with Brandon Morrow this season.

 

And this year, the Cubs might be the biggest suitors for Kimbrel, even if/when they sign Machado or Harper...

[Nick]

Is it time to clear out the farm, again? Anyone with trade value?

[mvp 78]

Is it time to clear out the farm, again? Anyone with trade value?

 

Nope. Re-sign the guys you want to keep (Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Sale, Porcello). The system has decent relievers so I think they can retool in house. 2b and 1b replacement can come from in house too. Find a cheap DH if JD bounces.

[Slasher9]

Your squad got too left handed and when the biggest threat in the ALE demolishes lefties, you're gonna have to balance out.

 

seemed to work out ok tho?

lolz

[notin]

Nope. Re-sign the guys you want to keep (Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Sale, Porcello). The system has decent relievers so I think they can retool in house. 2b and 1b replacement can come from in house too. Find a cheap DH if JD bounces.

 

The Sox do have a lot of those players for 2019 already.

 

As Dombrowski is a big time trader and really, has not much in the farm to deal, who will he put on the market?

 

I think, besides one or both of Chavis and Dalbec, the Sox might entertain deals for Rodriguez and Swihart. A third possibility is Bogaerts, but interest might be lessened once the Cubs make Addison Russell available at a discount...

[TylerD]

Yes. Re-sign him absolutely. The man is a terminator and remains calm as a cucumber in the playoffs. Find him a spot

[Nick]

I would love to see Dalbec and/or Chavis get promoted next fall. They can't be much worse than Shaw. More power potential.

[notin]

I would love to see Dalbec and/or Chavis get promoted next fall. They can't be much worse than Shaw. More power potential.

 

I expect at least one of Dalbec or Chavis to be in MLB next year. But not in Boston...