How Good Can This Sox Team Be?

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox will win over 100. Thing is, the playoffs have become a pen game and the Sox pen doesn’t have enough in it to win on their own.

 

It's never as simple as that. Houston's bullpen had lousy numbers in last year's playoffs.

[harmony]

Some of us just show our age. It's more surprising now that 2 AL West teams had 100+ wins that year.

In 2001 the Oakland Athletics won 102 games and finished 14 games behind the AL West champion Seattle Mariners.

 

That year the four-team AL West finished a cumulative 84 games above .500 while the five-team AL East finished a cumulative 32 games below .500.

 

Nevertheless the New York Yankees represented the American League in the World Series that year.

[moonslav59]

The Sox will win over 100. Thing is, the playoffs have become a pen game and the Sox pen doesn’t have enough in it to win on their own.

 

Other than Kimbrel, we don't have big name RP'ers, but our pen has done very well for over 2 years without getting much recognition.

 

Team RP'er WAR rankings from 2016 to 2017 (30 teams x 3 seasons =90 rankings):

 

5th BOS 2017 WAR 7.0

19th BOS 2018 (season not over) WAR 4.8

T27th BOS 2016 WAR 4.7

 

4th best WAR last year. 4th best this year. Our pen is not a weakness. Yes, the Yanks have been better, but that doesn't mean we can't win with an inferior pen to one team in the AL.

 

2017-2018 combined

15.9 NYY

11.8 BOS

10.4 HOU

10.1 MIL

 

Saying our pen can't win games on it's own is a gross exaggeration.

 

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

Our top of the lineup guys have looked bad in a number of recent games. Yes, the pitching they faced has been excellent the last two days, but they just haven't looked like they were competing. Men on base, nothing happens. Are they tired or in a collective malaise? They need to get it together since they will no doubt face good pitching in any playoffs.

[moonslav59]

Our top of the lineup guys have looked bad in a number of recent games. Yes, the pitching they faced has been excellent the last two days, but they just haven't looked like they were competing. Men on base, nothing happens. Are they tired or in a collective malaise? They need to get it together since they will no doubt face good pitching in any playoffs.

 

Before tonight's loss, we had won 4 in a row (1.000), 6 out of 8 (.750), 9 out of 12 (.750) and 19 out of 23 (.826).

 

If this is "malaise" bring it on!

 

Even counting tonight's loss, we've won 19 of our last 24 games (.792).

[Sox75]

75 - 34 = .688

 

52 games left x .600 = 32 more wins.

 

Sox finish with 107 , that's about the best we can hope for?

 

Play .688 ball all the way, & we hit 111

 

I don't see that happening with our growing pitching woes.

 

Play .500 the rest of the way, and we hit 101. Still a great regular season, but we likely are passed by the Yanks.

[oldtimer]

We are going through a period where the 1-5 bats have been cooled off. Partly we were facing good pitching. Hard to put ones finger on what is goiing on, perhaps just one of those slump periods. The Yankee pitching won't be easy either, so our guys need to pick it up.

[Bellhorn04]

On the same day Sale hits the DL with shoulder issue, Bogey gets hit in the hand, the same place as last year that ruined his season.

 

Showing once again how quickly stuff can go sideways.

[OH FOY]

25 of the 53 games left are against teams that will be fighting for the Play-offs. 6 games are with Tampa, who are a .500 team. Don't be counting chickens just yet. Yanks got a ton of games to make up, and that is going to hurt them. But, only 3 in loss column, with 4 games coming.

[Bellhorn04]

The guy that started this thread hasn't posted since July 9. Kind of a joker LOL

[jacksonianmarch]

It's never as simple as that. Houston's bullpen had lousy numbers in last year's playoffs.

 

That's when they started using McCullers in the pen and he was nails. Also, their starters were handing the ball to the closer. I don't think you have that kind of rotation depth to expect your starters to go 7-8 innings in the playoffs

[jacksonianmarch]

25 of the 53 games left are against teams that will be fighting for the Play-offs. 6 games are with Tampa, who are a .500 team. Don't be counting chickens just yet. Yanks got a ton of games to make up, and that is going to hurt them. But, only 3 in loss column, with 4 games coming.

 

The Yanks have to make hay this month. Aside from facing the sox, this month is a joke.

 

Home vs Bal for 1

Away vs BOS for 4

Away vs CWS for 3

Home vs TEX for 4

Home vs NYM for 1

Home vs TB for 3

Home vs TOR for 3

Away for 2 vs MIA

Away for 4 (in 3 days) vs BAL

Home for 3 vs CWS

Home for 4 vs DET

 

After this run, we go on a west coast trip against the A's and Mariners which is never a sure bet and we finish the year with 4 in TB (our house of horrors) and 3 at Fenway. If we don't have a lead or are within a game or so by Labor Day, then the division is the sox to lose as the sox have the Phillies in Philly for 2 and a 4 gamer vs CLE mixed in with standard foes around it for August. The sox do have some tough opponents in Sept too with 3 at Atlanta, 3 at CLE and 3 home vs HOU.

[SoxnCycles]

The guy that started this thread hasn't posted since July 9. Kind of a joker LOL

 

Probably out enjoying the summer.

Smart guy.

[Bellhorn04]

That's when they started using McCullers in the pen and he was nails. Also, their starters were handing the ball to the closer. I don't think you have that kind of rotation depth to expect your starters to go 7-8 innings in the playoffs

 

You said it's a bullpen game now, so this is an instant goalpost move.

 

Sale, Price and Porcello are all capable of going deep when they're right.

[mvp 78]

117 baybay

[Slasher9]

The guy that started this thread hasn't posted since July 9. Kind of a joker LOL

 

he always posted links to his own website. i think he was trying to generate traffic?

[Bellhorn04]

117 baybay

 

11.

[greenwell]

Magic Numbers:

Division: 41 vs Yankees

Best Record in MLB: 41 vs Astros

[Kimmi]

117 baybay

 

Back to back to back.

[Kimmi]

11.

 

11-0.

[bosoxmal]

The best ever! And I saw Foxx, Cronin, Williams, Doerr, Clemens, Yaz and on and on. None compare s a complete team. It's impossible to compare palayer from the 30s and 6s- with those of today. But you CAN compare the full squad.

[a700hitter]

The best ever! And I saw Foxx, Cronin, Williams, Doerr, Clemens, Yaz and on and on. None compare s a complete team. It's impossible to compare palayer from the 30s and 6s- with those of today. But you CAN compare the full squad.

That means a lot coming from you. I would imagine that the ‘46 team was pretty special. They had the best hitter in the game, a strong defense, a potent offense and they had some pretty good pitchers. They didn’t have this team’s speed.

[kenmeister]

Then there are teams that had a lot of talent but went nowhere, like the 2002 and 2011 Sox teams.

[jacksonianmarch]

This sox team came along at the right time in the landscape of the AL to challenge the Mariner's 116 win mark. The AL has 6 teams well above .500, two teams at .500 and then a bunch of s*** after that. Look at the projections for the AL

The cream

Sox- 114-48

Yanks- 101-61

Guardians 90-72

Astros 103-59

A's 95-67

Mariners 92-70

 

The meh

LAA 80-82

Rays- 82-80

 

The bad

Twins 77-85

Jays 74-88

 

The awful

Tigers 67-95

Rangers 70-92

 

The abysmal

KC 49-113

O's 49-113

 

Last year, we had no 100 game losers in the AL. There were only 2 90 loss teams in baseball but 10 teams finishing under .500. Of those 10, 7 had 75-81 wins

In 2016, there was one 100 loss team and 2 90 loss teams and only 5 teams under .500

In 2015, we didn't have a 100 loss team and only had one 90 loss team. 6 teams were under .500 with 4 of them having 75-80 wins

In 2014, we didn't have a single 100 loss team, but had 4 90 loss teams.

 

You see the trend. We have 2 epically bad teams in KC and BAL. We have 2 awful teams in the Tigers and the Rangers. The Jays and Twins project to be well below .500 but around the range of mediocrity. The Rays and Angels are the definition of mediocrity. The rest are the cream. The sox loaded up at the same time as a few teams crashed, opening up the ability to sweep the bad teams almost every series. The Jays, Rays and Twins have since gutted their teams which could see them fall from grace in dramatic fashion into the 90 loss realm. That would secure a mind boggling 7 teams at the 90 loss plateau. That's crazy. This sox team is a great team in an era of as big a disparity of haves and have nots as I have ever seen. I think the sox could challenge the record for wins in this setting. The question is, should they? The Mariners went for 116 and got it, and got a swift boot out in the playoffs. I anticipate that would be quite the failure on the sox end. If the sox keep ripping the s*** out of the bad teams and hold their own down the stretch vs ATL, PHI, HOU, CLE, and NYY, then they should comfortably win the division. Rather than chase meaningless regular season titles, my expectation is you'll see the PawSox make a few starts down the stretch and see the sox fall into the 105-110 win range

[greenwell]

This sox team came along at the right time in the landscape of the AL to challenge the Mariner's 116 win mark. The AL has 6 teams well above .500, two teams at .500 and then a bunch of s*** after that. Look at the projections for the AL

The cream

Sox- 114-48

Yanks- 101-61

Guardians 90-72

Astros 103-59

A's 95-67

Mariners 92-70

 

The meh

LAA 80-82

Rays- 82-80

 

The bad

Twins 77-85

Jays 74-88

 

The awful

Tigers 67-95

Rangers 70-92

 

The abysmal

KC 49-113

O's 49-113

 

Last year, we had no 100 game losers in the AL. There were only 2 90 loss teams in baseball but 10 teams finishing under .500. Of those 10, 7 had 75-81 wins

In 2016, there was one 100 loss team and 2 90 loss teams and only 5 teams under .500

In 2015, we didn't have a 100 loss team and only had one 90 loss team. 6 teams were under .500 with 4 of them having 75-80 wins

In 2014, we didn't have a single 100 loss team, but had 4 90 loss teams.

 

You see the trend. We have 2 epically bad teams in KC and BAL. We have 2 awful teams in the Tigers and the Rangers. The Jays and Twins project to be well below .500 but around the range of mediocrity. The Rays and Angels are the definition of mediocrity. The rest are the cream. The sox loaded up at the same time as a few teams crashed, opening up the ability to sweep the bad teams almost every series. The Jays, Rays and Twins have since gutted their teams which could see them fall from grace in dramatic fashion into the 90 loss realm. That would secure a mind boggling 7 teams at the 90 loss plateau. That's crazy. This sox team is a great team in an era of as big a disparity of haves and have nots as I have ever seen. I think the sox could challenge the record for wins in this setting. The question is, should they? The Mariners went for 116 and got it, and got a swift boot out in the playoffs. I anticipate that would be quite the failure on the sox end. If the sox keep ripping the s*** out of the bad teams and hold their own down the stretch vs ATL, PHI, HOU, CLE, and NYY, then they should comfortably win the division. Rather than chase meaningless regular season titles, my expectation is you'll see the PawSox make a few starts down the stretch and see the sox fall into the 105-110 win range

 

Alex Cora doesn't seem the type to push for meaningless records at the expense of postseason success. I don't expect any AAA lineups, but probably more rest for the regulars. I wouldn't be surprised if they avoid pitching Sale, Porcello, Price in the games against NY, CLE, and HOU.

[kenmeister]

I've actually been following the saga of the Sox vs. the Orioles in the "Are the Sox as good as the Orioles are bad" race (i.e. flip the Orioles record).

 

Today's standings:

Sox: 80-34

Orioles: 34-79

 

So the Orioles are only a half-game in back of the Sox in being as bad as the Sox are good. It's been close all year!

[mvp 78]

If the Sox go .500 the rest of the way, they'll still wind up with 104 wins.

[oldtimer]

We have Devers back tonight I think. Hope he didn't go bananas overeating while laid up. We also have Kinsler and Swihart days away and Sale reportedly available by the Baltimore series. That will make this team even more formidable. I like the idea of a lineup with no holes. Makes it extremely hard on the opposing pitching.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

This sox team came along at the right time in the landscape of the AL to challenge the Mariner's 116 win mark. The AL has 6 teams well above .500, two teams at .500 and then a bunch of s*** after that. Look at the projections for the AL

The cream

Sox- 114-48

Yanks- 101-61

Guardians 90-72

Astros 103-59

A's 95-67

Mariners 92-70

 

The meh

LAA 80-82

Rays- 82-80

 

The bad

Twins 77-85

Jays 74-88

 

The awful

Tigers 67-95

Rangers 70-92

 

The abysmal

KC 49-113

O's 49-113

 

Last year, we had no 100 game losers in the AL. There were only 2 90 loss teams in baseball but 10 teams finishing under .500. Of those 10, 7 had 75-81 wins

In 2016, there was one 100 loss team and 2 90 loss teams and only 5 teams under .500

In 2015, we didn't have a 100 loss team and only had one 90 loss team. 6 teams were under .500 with 4 of them having 75-80 wins

In 2014, we didn't have a single 100 loss team, but had 4 90 loss teams.

 

You see the trend. We have 2 epically bad teams in KC and BAL. We have 2 awful teams in the Tigers and the Rangers. The Jays and Twins project to be well below .500 but around the range of mediocrity. The Rays and Angels are the definition of mediocrity. The rest are the cream. The sox loaded up at the same time as a few teams crashed, opening up the ability to sweep the bad teams almost every series. The Jays, Rays and Twins have since gutted their teams which could see them fall from grace in dramatic fashion into the 90 loss realm. That would secure a mind boggling 7 teams at the 90 loss plateau. That's crazy. This sox team is a great team in an era of as big a disparity of haves and have nots as I have ever seen. I think the sox could challenge the record for wins in this setting. The question is, should they? The Mariners went for 116 and got it, and got a swift boot out in the playoffs. I anticipate that would be quite the failure on the sox end. If the sox keep ripping the s*** out of the bad teams and hold their own down the stretch vs ATL, PHI, HOU, CLE, and NYY, then they should comfortably win the division. Rather than chase meaningless regular season titles, my expectation is you'll see the PawSox make a few starts down the stretch and see the sox fall into the 105-110 win range

 

You left off the Shite Sox, who, I believe, would fall somewhere between the awful and the abysmal.

[notin]

If the Sox go .500 the rest of the way, they'll still wind up with 104 wins.

 

Not according to MADSTORK...