Sox starting pitching thread

[mvp 78]

Well, suspected peak value, anyway.

 

So far, it seems that DD suspected correctly for the most part.

[harmony]

Beeks 2018 in AAA:

 

ERA 3.05 INN 82.2 BB 23 K 110 WHIP 1.08

 

Better than any prospect playing for the Mariner's AAA squad.

You may be right but an interesting comp is provided by Jalen Beeks and Tacoma righthander Rob Whalen, a pair of former 12th-round draft picks.

 

Beeks has been impressive in his cherry-picked 82.2 innings at Triple A this year. As notin noted, Beeks has not pitched in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League where Seattle's Triple A Tacoma Rainiers play.

 

In the larger and more meaningful samples of their minor league careers, Beeks and Whalen have posted these numbers:

 

JB 511 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 158 BB, 484 K

RW 490 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 165 BB, 431 K

 

And their minuscule MLB lines this year:

 

JB 6.1 IP, 12.49 ERA, 2.37 WHIP, 4 BB, 5 K

RW 4.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 1 BB, 0 K

 

Whalen's four scoreless innings came in the Mariners' 7-6 win against the high-flying Red Sox:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA201806150.shtml

 

Whalen's career MLB line:

 

RW 36 IP, 5.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 15 BB, 27 K

 

Whalen is six months younger than Beeks.

 

I'm not suggesting that one pitcher is better than the other, but they provide interesting comps.

Edited July 11, 2018 by harmony

[notin]

2013 had the insane Buchholz run. Lackey was a back of the rotation guy who had his best AL ERA in 8 years. Dempster retired after 2013. Peavy was clearly on the back end of his career.

 

It's not surprising that the Sox rotation took a substantial hit in 2014. They had to even rely on RDLR for 100 innings that year.

 

For Lester, the aberration was 2012.

 

But outside of Peavy, how did you think the other four would do in 2014?

 

After all, Lackey did pitch well after 2013. And runs of crazy success were nothing new for Buchholz..

[mvp 78]

But outside of Peavy, how did you think the other four would do in 2014?

 

After all, Lackey did pitch well after 2013. And runs of crazy success were nothing new for Buchholz..

 

Lackey was still a great unknown, but I always felt he was a 4.00 ERA guy. Never liked that signing. I had seen enough of him while living out in LA.

 

Buchholz was oft injured and not reliable.

 

Doubront was a young guy who was pushed to the pen in the postseason. He was never going to be more than a back of the rotation guy.

 

I was hopeful that RDLR would provide something, but he was a lottery ticket.

[notin]

So far, it seems that DD suspected correctly for the most part.

 

Based on what? What exactly has happened to any of them to say they have already peaked? The most MLB experience so far is Manny Margot. Are you assuming after 885 plate appearances at the age of 23, he isn't going to get any better?

[a700hitter]

Based on what? What exactly has happened to any of them to say they have already peaked? The most MLB experience so far is Manny Margot. Are you assuming after 885 plate appearances at the age of 23, he isn't going to get any better?

I am not worried on the least that I will be looking at another Jeff Bagwell. Margot is never going to be a star.

[a700hitter]

2014: 4.36 ERA and 26th in the league.

 

2012: 5.19 ERA and 27th in the league.

The pitching was just awful those years. Not competitive.

[Bellhorn04]

I didn't really start to seriously doubt Ben until I realized that we were going into 2015 with Porcello, Buch, Kelly, Miley and Masterson as the starting five.

[mvp 78]

Based on what? What exactly has happened to any of them to say they have already peaked? The most MLB experience so far is Manny Margot. Are you assuming after 885 plate appearances at the age of 23, he isn't going to get any better?

 

Based on the fact that no one has rocketed beyond where they once were. No one (but maybe Logan Allen) has exceed the peak value they had when they were with the Sox.

[mvp 78]

I didn't really start to seriously doubt Ben until I realized that we were going into 2015 with Porcello, Buch, Kelly, Miley and Masterson as the starting five.

 

Yup, 2015 was a back breaker.

[Dojji]

Based on the fact that no one has rocketed beyond where they once were. No one (but maybe Logan Allen) has exceed the peak value they had when they were with the Sox.

 

you mean except for Moncada who by all measures is right now an above average big league second baseman with plenty of room to grow?

[a700hitter]

I didn't really start to seriously doubt Ben until I realized that we were going into 2015 with Porcello, Buch, Kelly, Miley and Masterson as the starting five.

And Henry Owens was our depth option and untouchable. Yuk!

[mvp 78]

you mean except for Moncada who by all measures is right now an above average big league second baseman with plenty of room to grow?

 

Negative oWAR and dWAR. I don't think his value is better today than what it was when traded.

[Dojji]

oWAR is 1.3, dWAR is 0.6, bWAR is 1.6

[Dojji]

For the record, DEFINITELY not saying I wouldn't do the trade, I'd take that deal a thousand times over. We HAD to have an ace. We needed one desparately. I was predicting we wouldn't get him at the time mostly because I was resigned to the fact that we wouldn't go to the mat to bring great talent to Boston. I've never been happier to be wrong.

[mvp 78]

oWAR is 1.3, dWAR is 0.6, bWAR is 1.6

 

Not according to the Fangraphs Tribune, the only source that matters.

[notin]

I am not worried on the least that I will be looking at another Jeff Bagwell. Margot is never going to be a star.

 

But maybe another Josh Reddick?

[a700hitter]

But maybe another Josh Reddick?

His bat lacks the explosiveness of Reddick's. Josh always had a very live bat. He just needed to make consistent contact. So, i am not worried that he will be Josh Reddick either.

[Kimmi]

Ben must have been about the flukiest GM ever though.

 

Actually, he probably was.

 

In all sincerity, if a team is projected to win the division, I am good with the job the GM did.

 

If the Sox had somehow managed to only win 80 games this season, I would not fault Dombrowski for their underperformance.

[Kimmi]

I didn't really start to seriously doubt Ben until I realized that we were going into 2015 with Porcello, Buch, Kelly, Miley and Masterson as the starting five.

 

Do you not think that a team can be a contender based on offense rather than pitching? That's not my preference, but the pitching was never supposed to be that good. The offense was supposed to carry the team.

[Bellhorn04]

Do you not think that a team can be a contender based on offense rather than pitching? That's not my preference, but the pitching was never supposed to be that good. The offense was supposed to carry the team.

 

Personally it made me shudder.

[notin]

Not that I am a huge fan, but wasn’t Masterson the best starting pitcher on a playoff team only 2 years before returning to Boston?

[Bellhorn04]

Not that I am a huge fan, but wasn’t Masterson the best starting pitcher on a playoff team only 2 years before returning to Boston?

 

Another example of a guy with wild variances in his numbers. Ben loved guys like that, I swear. He was kind of a riverboat gambler in his own way.

[notin]

Another example of a guy with wild variances in his numbers. Ben loved guys like that, I swear. He was kind of a riverboat gambler in his own way.

 

Maybe because they didn’t command seven year deals?

 

If you sign one and he flops, let him walk...

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe because they didn’t command seven year deals?

 

If you sign one and he flops, let him walk...

 

Sure, but if they make up your whole starting rotation, the short-term results might not be pretty, and they weren't that year.

[Spudboy]

Lackey was still a great unknown, but I always felt he was a 4.00 ERA guy. Never liked that signing. I had seen enough of him while living out in LA.

 

Buchholz was oft injured and not reliable.

 

Doubront was a young guy who was pushed to the pen in the postseason. He was never going to be more than a back of the rotation guy.

 

I was hopeful that RDLR would provide something, but he was a lottery ticket.

 

Doubront was huge disappointment. He was touted as having "the best stuff in the organization". He proved to be a lunk head much like Buch.

 

I remember Pedro working with RDLR in spring training and saying that the kid was the real deal.

 

I guess even Pedro can be wrong once in a while.

 

Webster was best known for his dear in the headlights look and s***ing the bed at every opportunity.

 

Aside from the salary dump, the Sox got nothing from that LA deal that I can remember.

[Spudboy]

The pitching was just awful those years. Not competitive.

 

I wonder where the 2015 staff ranked.

 

It was definitely rank!

 

Blowing up the rotation for 2015 was Ben's biggest f***-up in my opinion.

[Spudboy]

I didn't really start to seriously doubt Ben until I realized that we were going into 2015 with Porcello, Buch, Kelly, Miley and Masterson as the starting five.

 

Lol.

 

Same here.

 

But as has been pointed out about two hundred times "it should have worked".

 

Unbelievable.

[a700hitter]

Lol.

 

Same here.

 

But as has been pointed out about two hundred times "it should have worked".

 

Unbelievable.

I kept hoping right through spring training that Ben would make a move for a bona fide good starter, but then he made the statement that he was happy with their pitching. I was in disbelief. The only people happy with that staff were the opposing hitters.

[Spudboy]

I kept hoping right through spring training that Ben would make a move for a bona fide good starter, but then he made the statement that he was happy with their pitching. I was in disbelief. The only people happy with that staff were the opposing hitters.

 

And one Talksox member.