WAR is the dumbest stat known to mankind (Trout vs. Betts)

[kenmeister]

Here's a current headline on ESPN:http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23520017/los-angeles-angels-mike-trout-pace-greatest-season-mlb-history. So then I looked:

 

Trout right now is 3.7

Betts is 3.5

 

Both are elite defenders, so I'm going to concentrate on their offense.

 

Mike Trout right now is hitting .292 with 38 walks, 8 stolen bases, 9 doubles, 2 triples, 13 homers, 26 RBI, and a 1.046 OPS. That's certainly a good season, but greatest of all time?

 

Mookie Betts right now is hitting .368 with 19 walks, 11 stolen bases (2 caught), 18 doubles, 1 triple, 15 homers, 32 RBI, and a 1.205 OPS. But he's behind Trout in WAR ???

 

Trout has more walks - a lot more - but otherwise is behind Mookie in every category. So two questions arise:

1) How on Earth can someone say that Trout is having the greatest season of all time?

2) How does Trout have a higher WAR than Mookie Betts? Or Machado? Machado only has a 2.3 WAR, but is hitting .347 with 14 homers, 42 RBI, and an overall OPS of 1.089.

 

Can someone enlighten me as to how WAR has any basis in reality?

[jacksonianmarch]

Fangraphs has Mookie at 3.5 and Trout at 3. My assumption is that ESPN takes into account BABIP, which shows Trout as not being lucky and Betts being incredibly lucky. Park adjustments factor in as well

[mvp 78]

fWAR > bWAR

[Youk Of The Nation]

WAR! Huh? What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!

[kenmeister]

fWAR > bWAR

 

English?

[Spudboy]

WAR! Huh? What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!

 

Say it again!

[Sox75]

WAR! Huh? What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!

 

Right on Elaine!

 

LOL :0

[Larry Cook]

Ever since ESPN was caught red handed creating fake news in the deflate gate scandal, they have gone out of their way to anti Boston everything. They are just a sad and pathetic organization!

[CharlieWhigg]

This is a pretty solid read on the breakdown of Trout vs. Betts, and why WAR may not be the best way to evaluate guys that play different positions.

 

https://redsoxunfiltered.com/2018/05/20/mike-trout-versus-mookie-betts-looking-beyond-the-war/

[mvp 78]

English?

 

In the US, there’s no official language. I’n allowed to speak stat geek whenever and wherever.

[kenmeister]

This is a pretty solid read on the breakdown of Trout vs. Betts, and why WAR may not be the best way to evaluate guys that play different positions.

 

https://redsoxunfiltered.com/2018/05/20/mike-trout-versus-mookie-betts-looking-beyond-the-war/

 

Awesome article! Just what I wanted to read on this topic. Thanks!

[kenmeister]

In the US, there’s no official language. I’n allowed to speak stat geek whenever and wherever.

 

Sure, sure, but unfortunately I don't know what you mean by fWar and bWar. I'm going to bet most of us don't.

[CharlieWhigg]

Awesome article! Just what I wanted to read on this topic. Thanks!

 

You're welcome. That's from a smaller fan site, but they give some pretty good breakdowns

[CharlieWhigg]

Sure, sure, but unfortunately I don't know what you mean by fWar and bWar. I'm going to bet most of us don't.

 

It's essentially different methods by which to calculate WAR. Fangraphs uses fWAR for their calculation, dWar typically means defensive wins above replacement, oWar means offensive.

 

Here's the wiki article on it, and fangraphs has great breakdowns and descriptions of their advanced stats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wins_Above_Replacement

[Bellhorn04]

Sure, sure, but unfortunately I don't know what you mean by fWar and bWar. I'm going to bet most of us don't.

 

Just referring to the 2 most popular places to get the WAR numbers from - FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.

[Jack Flap]

If I'm not mistaken, when that ESPN article first ran, Trout's lead in bWAR was slightly larger, and Mookie has since narrowed it. As of this morning, he trails Trout by 0.3 bWAR and leads him by 0.5 fWAR.

 

Two incredible players having absolutely unreal seasons any way you slice it. I'm looking forward to watching what's shaping up to be an MVP race for the ages.

[Kimmi]

fWAR > bWAR

 

!!!

[Kimmi]

This is a pretty solid read on the breakdown of Trout vs. Betts, and why WAR may not be the best way to evaluate guys that play different positions.

 

https://redsoxunfiltered.com/2018/05/20/mike-trout-versus-mookie-betts-looking-beyond-the-war/

 

Actually, one of the good things about WAR is that it allows you to compare players that play different positions.

[bkzwhitestrican]

WAR was created as a way to compare other players to Mike Trout's greatness, so obviously nobody else would be ahead of him.

[OH FOY]

Still don't know if WAR gives you credit for Productive Outs, that help win games. Or a Players Hustle, on plays, that help win games too. Edited May 20, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

1) WAR is not a "stat"

2) There is no single stat that does a better job at comparing total player value.

[OH FOY]

There should be no Stat that has Wins in it. Every Game Different, Situations Different. Last night game will have no bearing on todays game. Edited May 20, 2018 by OH FOY!

[MADSTORK]

Finally another Poster who gets it!

 

You can take all the Bill James garb and flush it

[CharlieWhigg]

https://redsoxunfiltered.com/2018/05/20/mike-trout-versus-mookie-betts-looking-beyond-the-war/

 

This is a pretty strong breakdown of Mookie and Trout's seasons thus far. It explains why Trout has the higher WAR (by some measurements) and why those calculations of WAR aren't accurate

[dgalehouse]

WAR is a contrived stat , derived from a combination of actual stats and using a certain formula to calculate. Somebody created it. Take it for what it is worth. There is certainly some value in it , but I think one can form their own player evaluations by watching and using the traditional stats. In any case , there will always be differences of opinion. So far this season , Mookie Betts has been the best player in the game. I don't know how anyone could disagree with that.

[Spudboy]

WAR is a contrived stat , derived from a combination of actual stats and using a certain formula to calculate. Somebody created it. Take it for what it is worth. There is certainly some value in it , but I think one can form their own player evaluations by watching and using the traditional stats. In any case , there will always be differences of opinion. So far this season , Mookie Betts has been the best player in the game. I don't know how anyone could disagree with that.

 

I am not the biggest fan of WAR but when you say that Betts is the best player in baseball how will anyone else who does not see him play each day know this without one metric that compares all players on the same footing?

 

Betts' is leading most major stats in the game, true. But that is just what he is doing right now and leading all categories is freaky rare from what I have seen.

 

I agree that Betts is the best in baseball right now.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Go see the JBJ stat in that thread, only confirms the OP

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

1) WAR is not a "stat"

2) There is no single stat that does a better job at comparing total player value.

 

Wait is it a stat or not?

[Bellhorn04]

Wait is it a stat or not?

 

I see it referred to as a statistic in some places, a calculation in others. It's kind of splitting hairs to say it isn't a stat, really.

[OH FOY]

A couple of years back.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/03/03/bob-ryan-declares-war-war/ErbD99zVKGfn1XjonlmBBK/story.html