The 2018 Bullpen Season Thread

[sk7326]

I never disagreed with the point about "at some point you have to cash some in." I loved the Sale trade.

 

My counter was to the added point of "that's the whole point of having them."

 

If you said that's "one point of having them..." I'd have wholly agreed.

 

I promise to be more literal from now on.

 

The hard thing is a team like the Twins taking inventory and asking how real last year was ... and misdiagnosing themselves.

[Larry Cook]

I never disagreed with the point about "at some point you have to cash some in." I loved the Sale trade.

 

My counter was to the added point of "that's the whole point of having them."

 

If you said that's "one point of having them..." I'd have wholly agreed.

 

The best teams build their teams through the minor league system and use free agent signings and trade to fill in need areas,

 

Since we are incapable of developing starting pitching, we have a ton of holes to fill. Hence the decimation of our minor league system and the most expensive payroll in the game,

[moonslav59]

The best teams build their teams through the minor league system and use free agent signings and trade to fill in need areas,

 

Since we are incapable of developing starting pitching, we have a ton of holes to fill. Hence the decimation of our minor league system and the most expensive payroll in the game,

 

True, but we have gotten quite a bit of talent by trading pitching prospects like Kelly, Kopech, Espinoza and Logan Allen.

[sk7326]

The best teams build their teams through the minor league system and use free agent signings and trade to fill in need areas,

 

Since we are incapable of developing starting pitching, we have a ton of holes to fill. Hence the decimation of our minor league system and the most expensive payroll in the game,

 

That has been somewhat by choice. Position talent is less variable than pitching - and the Red Sox have leaned in that direction.

[Kimmi]

No. I said the farm exists to service the major league club. And that means both aims - they are not mutually exclusive. Given where the Cubs were - the value of Gleyber Torres as a trade chip was more important than his value as a future cog. If they were where the Padres were, that would of course have been madness. And good teams (and in particular good teams with lots of revenue) have different decision sets than others.

 

Trading every prospect nailed down doesn't make sense - as you have rightly noted. But neither does hoarding them! For a contender, there are too many stakeholders - including the blocked prospect themselves - not to make a deal in that context.

 

I agree with everything you've said here. I don't think anyone is asking Dombrowski to hoard the prospects, nor do I think Ben would have hoarded them in 2016 if he had remained with the team. I was okay with Dombrowski trading Espinoza for Pomeranz, though I wasn't crazy about what we gave up.

 

My beef is with the sheer magnitude of prospects that were traded away in such a short period of time and IMO, overpaying in many cases. I strongly believe a more balanced approach between long and short term goals could have been found that would not only make the team a contender for the short term, but also leave the state of the farm in much better shape for the longer term.

 

I will finish by saying that if we win the WS this year or next, or both years, then it will have all been worth it. As you say, flags fly forever.

[sk7326]

I agree with everything you've said here. I don't think anyone is asking Dombrowski to hoard the prospects, nor do I think Ben would have hoarded them in 2016 if he had remained with the team. I was okay with Dombrowski trading Espinoza for Pomeranz, though I wasn't crazy about what we gave up.

 

My beef is with the sheer magnitude of prospects that were traded away in such a short period of time and IMO, overpaying in many cases. I strongly believe a more balanced approach between long and short term goals could have been found that would not only make the team a contender for the short term, but also leave the state of the farm in much better shape for the longer term.

 

I will finish by saying that if we win the WS this year or next, or both years, then it will have all been worth it. As you say, flags fly forever.

 

But did Dombrowski overpay? I mean ex ante he did not get Kimbrel for a steal - and I have a general revulsion to "proven closers" as a species. At the same time, he aimed top shelf - and the prospects he gave up were not actually very likely to play for Boston anyway. Now - nobody is running a charity - but given that Margot was clearly a major league capable player, getting him to a place where he could actually draw a salary above minimum wage is good for everybody.

 

Sale cost a steep-ish price ... the White Sox do that deal every day of the week. But the prospects dealt there had a pretty high degree of variability. (Kopech by being a pitcher, and Moncada by being so raw) Compare that with one of the few true #1 starters alive - it's not really much different than the cost to get Pedro. Here is the thing with long term goals - to a certain degree they addressed that by that bonanza of talent the previous regime got into the system and graduated. I mean, they've made 3 straight postseasons with nothing really stopping them from making another 1 or 2. I mean - the Red Sox HAVE thought about long term, and now are the beneficiaries of that - and unlike Tampa, they can extend the party for quite some time.

 

The one thing Dombrowski has done is be proactive on the calls with the kids. "This guy is a stud", "This guy is alright, but we won't miss him" etc ... and then make choices on that. The TL;DR version - I'm not sure how much the guys dealt really lowered the long term prognosis of the major league team.

Edited September 16, 2018 by sk7326

[moonslav59]

But did Dombrowski overpay? I mean ex ante he did not get Kimbrel for a steal - and I have a general revulsion to "proven closers" as a species. At the same time, he aimed top shelf - and the prospects he gave up were not actually very likely to play for Boston anyway. Now - nobody is running a charity - but given that Margot was clearly a major league capable player, getting him to a place where he could actually draw a salary above minimum wage is good for everybody.

 

Sale cost a steep-ish price ... the White Sox do that deal every day of the week. But the prospects dealt there had a pretty high degree of variability. (Kopech by being a pitcher, and Moncada by being so raw) Compare that with one of the few true #1 starters alive - it's not really much different than the cost to get Pedro. Here is the thing with long term goals - to a certain degree they addressed that by that bonanza of talent the previous regime got into the system and graduated. I mean, they've made 3 straight postseasons with nothing really stopping them from making another 1 or 2. I mean - the Red Sox HAVE thought about long term, and now are the beneficiaries of that - and unlike Tampa, they can extend the party for quite some time.

 

great points, and those two trades were the headliners, but trading all of those prospects PLUS the ones traded you did not mention was a bit over the top, in terms of sheer quantity given up over such a short time span. The Pom and Thornburg trades seemed like overpays at the time. (I actually liked the Sale & Thornburg trades, because I had given up on Shaw and have always loved Sale.)

 

I wouldn't have made all those deals, but I have always said, I love the team DD built, and I like the fact that he created a 3-4 year window and not a 1-2 year grasp for a ring. I thank him for that. If we win a ring, I'll be okay with every trade and signing he and Ben made.

 

Just win, baby!

[Kimmi]

But did Dombrowski overpay? I mean ex ante he did not get Kimbrel for a steal - and I have a general revulsion to "proven closers" as a species. At the same time, he aimed top shelf - and the prospects he gave up were not actually very likely to play for Boston anyway. Now - nobody is running a charity - but given that Margot was clearly a major league capable player, getting him to a place where he could actually draw a salary above minimum wage is good for everybody.

 

Sale cost a steep-ish price ... the White Sox do that deal every day of the week. But the prospects dealt there had a pretty high degree of variability. (Kopech by being a pitcher, and Moncada by being so raw) Compare that with one of the few true #1 starters alive - it's not really much different than the cost to get Pedro. Here is the thing with long term goals - to a certain degree they addressed that by that bonanza of talent the previous regime got into the system and graduated. I mean, they've made 3 straight postseasons with nothing really stopping them from making another 1 or 2. I mean - the Red Sox HAVE thought about long term, and now are the beneficiaries of that - and unlike Tampa, they can extend the party for quite some time.

 

The one thing Dombrowski has done is be proactive on the calls with the kids. "This guy is a stud", "This guy is alright, but we won't miss him" etc ... and then make choices on that. The TL;DR version - I'm not sure how much the guys dealt really lowered the long term prognosis of the major league team.

 

IMO, yes. He overpaid, more so for Kimbrel than for Sale. It's not whether those prospects have or will amount to anything, or whether they were blocked. It's about getting back proper value for them at the time of the trade.

 

Obviously, I'm not unhappy with having either Sale or Kimbrel on the team. I could accept any of those deals individually. I am unhappy with the state of our farm system.

 

Let's hope that we win the WS this year.

[sk7326]

IMO, yes. He overpaid, more so for Kimbrel than for Sale. It's not whether those prospects have or will amount to anything, or whether they were blocked. It's about getting back proper value for them at the time of the trade.

 

Obviously, I'm not unhappy with having either Sale or Kimbrel on the team. I could accept any of those deals individually. I am unhappy with the state of our farm system.

 

Let's hope that we win the WS this year.

 

I did not love the Kimbrel deal - at the same time a single-A shortstop and a middle class Michael Bourn is something that was going to be hard to feel. Kopech is roughly where Carl Pavano was when he was dealt in 1997. That worked out well.

[oldtimer]

I agree with everything you've said here. I don't think anyone is asking Dombrowski to hoard the prospects, nor do I think Ben would have hoarded them in 2016 if he had remained with the team. I was okay with Dombrowski trading Espinoza for Pomeranz, though I wasn't crazy about what we gave up.

 

My beef is with the sheer magnitude of prospects that were traded away in such a short period of time and IMO, overpaying in many cases. I strongly believe a more balanced approach between long and short term goals could have been found that would not only make the team a contender for the short term, but also leave the state of the farm in much better shape for the longer term.

 

I will finish by saying that if we win the WS this year or next, or both years, then it will have all been worth it. As you say, flags fly forever.

 

I agree both in the matter of the degree that we emptied our prospect bin and also in the overpaying for some players both in prospects and in cash, strapping the team going forward. We also got unlucky with both Smith and Thornburg not really contributing even though we expected more. Like you say, if we will it all even for 1 year it would be woth it.

 

I don't see us on any cliff like decline in 2019 and we do finally clear Panda from the books giving us some additional cash after that.

 

It looks like we will have 4 starters back next year

 

Price

Porcello

E-Rod

Wright

 

With Sale and Eovaldi hitting the FA market we will have to get competitive for a 5th starter. Would love Sale back but only for a reasonable contract in both $ and duration. So we should be active for a very good quality starter if Sale is too unrealistic. Too bad the farm doesn't have strong candidates. Other teams develop pitchers, we should too although our draft picks will be at the end of the line.

 

I expect Pomeranz and his $8.5 Mil contract to go and probablly we can use Johnson as we did this year as a 6th starter.

 

In the area of the BP we will need 6 in addition to the staff mentioned above. Barnes, Brasier, Workman and Poyner come to mind and we probably will not be able to resign Kimbrel at a contract that makes sense (let others go to 5 years at $18 mil a year, we shouldn't). I would think we could find a decent closer for less than he will demand. For other relievers we have Hembree, Kelly, Smith, Maddox and Thornburg. Maybe one or more of them can fill in the pen for us. Certainly some good arms there and even Cuevas has promise.

 

I look forward to 2019 as another strong year.

[Bellhorn04]

Sale is also back next year.

[sk7326]

I agree both in the matter of the degree that we emptied our prospect bin and also in the overpaying for some players both in prospects and in cash, strapping the team going forward. We also got unlucky with both Smith and Thornburg not really contributing even though we expected more. Like you say, if we will it all even for 1 year it would be woth it.

 

I don't see us on any cliff like decline in 2019 and we do finally clear Panda from the books giving us some additional cash after that.

 

It looks like we will have 4 starters back next year

 

Price

Porcello

E-Rod

Wright

 

With Sale and Eovaldi hitting the FA market we will have to get competitive for a 5th starter. Would love Sale back but only for a reasonable contract in both $ and duration. So we should be active for a very good quality starter if Sale is too unrealistic. Too bad the farm doesn't have strong candidates. Other teams develop pitchers, we should too although our draft picks will be at the end of the line.

 

I expect Pomeranz and his $8.5 Mil contract to go and probablly we can use Johnson as we did this year as a 6th starter.

 

In the area of the BP we will need 6 in addition to the staff mentioned above. Barnes, Brasier, Workman and Poyner come to mind and we probably will not be able to resign Kimbrel at a contract that makes sense (let others go to 5 years at $18 mil a year, we shouldn't). I would think we could find a decent closer for less than he will demand. For other relievers we have Hembree, Kelly, Smith, Maddox and Thornburg. Maybe one or more of them can fill in the pen for us. Certainly some good arms there and even Cuevas has promise.

 

I look forward to 2019 as another strong year.

 

1. Here is the entire list of teams with a ready replacement for a pitcher of Chris Sale's caliber in their farm system: (Crickets, tumbleweed blowing)

2. For the most part the Sox have not been in the draft position to get stud pitchers. At the same time, the org has always preferred the predictability of position talent. Dombrowski though has shown much more willingness to draft pitching.

3. I am not sure about Pomeranz. On one hand, it's easy to see him leaving. On the other, will somebody give him a multi-year deal? If I were Dombrowski, I'd still offer him a 1 year deal. Pomeranz might have to take a "prove it" deal anyway.

4. The team is less strapped than simply in between prospect cycles. Every team faces this - we'll see how it goes.

5. Position wise, this team is as set as ownership wants it to be. There are reasons for the team to potentially quietly explore deals for Bogaerts (though I don't think it will happen, and I'm not sure I would do it in their position) - if you don't intend on re-signing him, this offseason is the sweet spot to get a strong return. At the same time, if ownership wants to keep the young talent together, they can.

6. It's a good time to be a Sox fan. The org has some hard choices, but so does every other one - and for the most part they are good choices to have.

Edited September 16, 2018 by sk7326

[notin]

I actually think there is a good chance Pomeranz returns on a 1-year prove-it deal. I don't see how he gets multiple years anywhere else.

 

I don’t. Pitchers typically do those deals in the NL, where they can get better numbers. The truly desperate pitchers go to San Diego to “prove” they still have it in the most ideal pitching environment in the league...

[Kimmi]

I agree both in the matter of the degree that we emptied our prospect bin and also in the overpaying for some players both in prospects and in cash, strapping the team going forward. We also got unlucky with both Smith and Thornburg not really contributing even though we expected more. Like you say, if we will it all even for 1 year it would be woth it.

 

I don't see us on any cliff like decline in 2019 and we do finally clear Panda from the books giving us some additional cash after that.

 

It looks like we will have 4 starters back next year

 

Price

Porcello

E-Rod

Wright

 

With Sale and Eovaldi hitting the FA market we will have to get competitive for a 5th starter. Would love Sale back but only for a reasonable contract in both $ and duration. So we should be active for a very good quality starter if Sale is too unrealistic. Too bad the farm doesn't have strong candidates. Other teams develop pitchers, we should too although our draft picks will be at the end of the line.

 

I expect Pomeranz and his $8.5 Mil contract to go and probablly we can use Johnson as we did this year as a 6th starter.

 

In the area of the BP we will need 6 in addition to the staff mentioned above. Barnes, Brasier, Workman and Poyner come to mind and we probably will not be able to resign Kimbrel at a contract that makes sense (let others go to 5 years at $18 mil a year, we shouldn't). I would think we could find a decent closer for less than he will demand. For other relievers we have Hembree, Kelly, Smith, Maddox and Thornburg. Maybe one or more of them can fill in the pen for us. Certainly some good arms there and even Cuevas has promise.

 

I look forward to 2019 as another strong year.

 

We should be fine for 2019. Like you, I think it will be another strong year. It's 2020 and beyond where we have the possibility of losing a lot of our players.

 

IMO, the bullpen will be the biggest offseason focus, including the closer position. Outside of that, I think it's mostly depth type pieces that we will need.

[moonslav59]

Nobody has claimed the cliff arrives in 2019.

 

Some think after 2019. I think we can be competitive in 2020, if a lot goes right, but we will see a big drop off, unless henry decides to go over the $40M for several years in a row. (Doubtful.)

[sk7326]

Nobody has claimed the cliff arrives in 2019.

 

Some think after 2019. I think we can be competitive in 2020, if a lot goes right, but we will see a big drop off, unless henry decides to go over the $40M for several years in a row. (Doubtful.)

 

I too predict a 30 win dropoff in 2021

[jacksonianmarch]

I too predict a 30 win dropoff in 2021

 

You guys will be fine next year. If DD doesn't have the leash of that top tax bracket, he can re-sign Kimbrel and you guys can have pretty much the same club back next year.

 

The problems come when multiple key players hit the market.

 

After 2019- Martinez, Sale, Bogaerts, Bradley, Porcello

After 2020- Betts

After 2021- ERod

 

After 2019, the contract of Fat Panda comes off, so you gain $18 mil. That $18 mil will get sucked into Beni, Betts, ERod and others arb contracts. In terms of replacing those 5 guys, the $70 mil or so the 5 guys going to FA will earn in 2019 will come off the ledger. To re-sign them, you'll need to shell out nearly twice that ($35 mil AAV for Sale, $30 mil AAV for JD, $25 mil AAV for Bogey, $15 mil AAV for Bradley, $18 mil AAV for Porcello) while also preparing to keep Betts. With the farm in shambles and the picks being moved back due to high spending, you'll either need to spend more to keep the band together or pick and choose. This is when the cliff comes in. Next year, though, you'll be another 100 game winner

[moonslav59]

Even if we don't keep Kimbrel, we should be fine, unless we win a ring this fall and look to reset the tax by dumping some salary.

[jacksonianmarch]

Even if we don't keep Kimbrel, we should be fine, unless we win a ring this fall and look to reset the tax by dumping some salary.

 

I don't think you guys value Kimbrel as fans as much as the sox do. And I agree with the sox. With how unreliable your pen has been, having a closer who is just flat out dominant is a great thing for you. You need him.

[moonslav59]

I don't think you guys value Kimbrel as fans as much as the sox do. And I agree with the sox. With how unreliable your pen has been, having a closer who is just flat out dominant is a great thing for you. You need him.

 

Of course, I meant if we let Kimbrel go, we'd spend the money on several RP'ers. I'm not for letting Kimbrel go and not doing anything with our pen needs.

 

(BTW, Kimbrel has not been "flat out dominant" this year, and we're breaking winning records here.)

[Nick]

JBJ is a 4 year arb guy....he becomes FA with Betts

[moonslav59]

JBJ is a 4 year arb guy....he becomes FA with Betts

 

Yes, he is.

 

FA Tracker (assuming we give Sale & Nunez their options)...

 

After

 

2018: Kimbrel, Kinsler, Pearce, Eovaldi, Kelly, Pom, Phillips

 

2019: Sale, Martinez (opt out), Porcello, Bogey, Moreland, Nunez, Holt, Thornburg

 

2020: Betts, JBJ, Wright, Leon

 

2021: ERod, Vaz (option), Barnes, Hembree, Pedroia

 

 

Edited September 17, 2018 by moonslav59

[Nick]

I don't think we re-sign Porcello at $20M plus and sign Sale and Xander. Something has to give.

 

After 2018 for 2019 season Sox pick up approximately $56M (22+8.5+13+3.8+9=Hanley+Pom+Kimbrel+Kelly+additinal cap space) Basically we have $56M to cover arb raises ($20M?) and Kimbrel if we want.

 

We'll be good again in 2019

 

After 2019 for 2020 season, Sox will pick up $19M on Pablo, $20M on Porcello and $6.5M on Mitch for total of $45M. Do we have enough money to sign Sale (additonal $17M), Xander (additional 10M) and re work JD's contract while covering arb raises?

 

We should be competitive in 2020.

 

Whats obvious is that Sox hasn't developed in house starting pitching talent. Can we do another Miller to Baltimore trade?

 

Or do something really drastic and trade one of our best players for cost controlled proven talent.

Edited September 17, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I don't think we re-sign Porcello at $20M plus and sign Sale and Xander. Something has to give.

 

After 2018 for 2019 season Sox pick up approximately $56M (22+8.5+13+3.8+9=Hanley+Pom+Kimbrel+Kelly+additinal cap space) Basically we have $56M to cover arb raises ($20M?) and Kimbrel if we want.

 

We'll be good again in 2019

 

After 2019 for 2020 season, Sox will pick up $19M on Pablo, $20M on Porcello and $6.5M on Mitch for total of $45M. Do we have enough money to sign Sale (additonal $17M), Xander (additional 10M) and re work JD's contract while covering arb raises?

 

We should be competitive in 2020.

 

Whats obvious is that Sox hasn't developed in house starting pitching talent. Can we do another Miller to Baltimore trade?

 

Or do something really drastic and trade one of our best players for cost controlled proven talent.

 

Good summary.

 

I think arb raises will be more than $20M. We have tons of them.

 

Betts 2 of 3

Bogey 3 of 3

JBJ 3 of 4

ERod 2 of 4

Holt 3 of 3

Thornburg 3 of 3

Leon 3 of 4

Wright 2 of 3

Smith 2 of 3

Barnes 1 of 3

Hembree 1 of 3

Swihart 1 of 4

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't think we re-sign Porcello at $20M plus and sign Sale and Xander. Something has to give.

 

After 2018 for 2019 season Sox pick up approximately $56M (22+8.5+13+3.8+9=Hanley+Pom+Kimbrel+Kelly+additinal cap space) Basically we have $56M to cover arb raises ($20M?) and Kimbrel if we want.

 

We'll be good again in 2019

 

After 2019 for 2020 season, Sox will pick up $19M on Pablo, $20M on Porcello and $6.5M on Mitch for total of $45M. Do we have enough money to sign Sale (additonal $17M), Xander (additional 10M) and re work JD's contract while covering arb raises?

 

We should be competitive in 2020.

 

Whats obvious is that Sox hasn't developed in house starting pitching talent. Can we do another Miller to Baltimore trade?

 

Or do something really drastic and trade one of our best players for cost controlled proven talent.

 

The arb raises will be huge. Remember, Betts set a record before his stupid 2018 season. He's gonna set records again. Bogey will be in his final year, which is usually close to market.

 

Also, the sox don't have any big league ready talent to replace any of the departing players.

[Nick]

The arb raises will be huge. Remember, Betts set a record before his stupid 2018 season. He's gonna set records again. Bogey will be in his final year, which is usually close to market.

 

Also, the sox don't have any big league ready talent to replace any of the departing players.

 

Qulity starting pitching is a must. Can we add depth at around $10M?

 

2019 Sale, Price, E Rod, Porcello, Wright, Vector, Johnson solid

2020 Sale, Price, E Rod, Wright, Vector, Johnson....no way we let Sale go.

2021 Sale, Price, E Rod (final yr of arb), Vector, Johnson

[jacksonianmarch]

Sale will hit the open market

[moonslav59]

The arb raises will be huge. Remember, Betts set a record before his stupid 2018 season. He's gonna set records again. Bogey will be in his final year, which is usually close to market.

 

Also, the sox don't have any big league ready talent to replace any of the departing players.

 

We might hit $20M on just those two!

[notin]

Good summary.

 

I think arb raises will be more than $20M. We have tons of them.

 

Betts 2 of 3

Bogey 3 of 3

JBJ 3 of 4

ERod 2 of 4

Holt 3 of 3

Thornburg 3 of 3

Leon 3 of 4

Wright 2 of 3

Smith 2 of 3

Barnes 1 of 3

Hembree 1 of 3

Swihart 1 of 4

 

 

 

 

There might be a non-tender or two in there.

 

Also possible that a trade is made to clear out an arb-eligible player for someone who isn’t yet...

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, he is.

 

FA Tracker (assuming we give Sale & Nunez their options)...

 

After

 

2018: Kimbrel, Kinsler, Pearce, Eovaldi, Kelly, Pom, Phillips

 

2019: Sale, Porcello, Bogey, Moreland, Nunez, Holt, Thornburg

 

2020: Betts, Martinez (opt out), JBJ, Wright, Leon

 

2021: ERod, Vaz (option), Barnes, Hembree, Pedroia

 

 

JDM's first opt-out comes after 2019 so move him up one line.