The 2018 Bullpen Season Thread

[sk7326]

Pretty amazing after such a nice run before this last one, but I'm leaning towards agreement. He still has time to turn it around, but the guy has sucked for too long to be trustworthy right now. Barnes is iffy. Hembree is trying to lose his slot as well, if he hasn't already. Pardon me, if I am not that high on Brasier.

 

We may be looking at a playoff relief set-up like this (assuming 7 man pen):

 

6th inning: Velazquez/Johnson (Wright/Eovaldi as long men)

 

7th inning: Wright/Eovaldi

 

8th inning: Eovaldi/Wright (as shortman), Brasier, Thornburg (Workman?)

 

9th inning: Kimbrel

 

 

 

 

I think (assuming a 4-man rotation and 11 pitchers, which is what I'd favor)

 

9th inning Kimbrel

Rodriguez/Eovaldi in the swing position (I expect this to be Eovaldi, but if we face the Yankees, it could be Rodriguez)

 

Wright, Brasier, Barnes, Velasquez, Workman

 

Now maybe the Sox DO carry 12 pitchers - given the relatively low likelihood you're going to get a deep start from Eovaldi/Rodriguez. Then add Kelly/Thornburg. I don't see a LOOGY who makes much sense.

[S5Dewey]

Kelly does remind me a bit too much of Daniel Bard. and I was no fan of Bard...

 

I was a fan of Bard for the same reason I am/was a Fan of Kelley. Both of those guys were blessed with great arms and both of them showed flashes of brilliance. When I see arms like that I keep hoping that there's some minor flaw in their motion that will make every performance like the brilliant ones. I hate to see arms like that go to waste.

 

But it is what it is, unfortunately.

[sk7326]

I was a fan of Bard for the same reason I am/was a Fan of Kelley. Both of those guys were blessed with great arms and both of them showed flashes of brilliance. When I see arms like that I keep hoping that there's some minor flaw in their motion that will make every performance like the brilliant ones. I hate to see arms like that go to waste.

 

But it is what it is, unfortunately.

 

Bard had wipeout stuff with zero command. Kelly on the other hand throws 100 mph but somehow doesn't get swings and misses.

[notin]

I was a fan of Bard for the same reason I am/was a Fan of Kelley. Both of those guys were blessed with great arms and both of them showed flashes of brilliance. When I see arms like that I keep hoping that there's some minor flaw in their motion that will make every performance like the brilliant ones. I hate to see arms like that go to waste.

 

But it is what it is, unfortunately.

 

My big issue with both was their inability to find the strike zone. Throwing 99mph outside the zone just means you walk players faster. And the absolute worst thing a reliever can do in late innings of close games is give free passes to the other team.

 

That was a very big reason why Dennis Eckersley was such an incredible reliever. From 1988 through 1998, he never walked more than 13 batters in a season. If you wanted to beat Eckersley, you had to do it yourself because you got no help from him...

[Bellhorn04]

Bard had wipeout stuff with zero command. Kelly on the other hand throws 100 mph but somehow doesn't get swings and misses.

 

The back to back plunks by Kelly last night also spoke pretty poorly for his command.

[sk7326]

My big issue with both was their inability to find the strike zone. Throwing 99mph outside the zone just means you walk players faster. And the absolute worst thing a reliever can do in late innings of close games is give free passes to the other team.

 

That was a very big reason why Dennis Eckersley was such an incredible reliever. From 1988 through 1998, he never walked more than 13 batters in a season. If you wanted to beat Eckersley, you had to do it yourself because you got no help from him...

 

it's symbiotic too ... you try to be fine with your pitches because you can't get swings and misses inside the zone. Walks are up in the league generally too since teams want to pitch to defensive alignments ... if your job is to aim for a PART of the strike zone, it makes the job even harder.

[notin]

it's symbiotic too ... you try to be fine with your pitches because you can't get swings and misses inside the zone. Walks are up in the league generally too since teams want to pitch to defensive alignments ... if your job is to aim for a PART of the strike zone, it makes the job even harder.

 

And the pitchers who can do so successfully do become better late game relievers. Bard and Kelly both lacked that skill and try/tried to rely on pure power to blow hitters away. But there are plenty of MLB hitters who have the patience to wait them out and take what is being handed to them.

 

A few months ago, I had some high hopes for Kelly and wanted the Sox to bring him back. I'm not as pro-Kelly as I once was because I think the Sox can get better relief pitching to replace him...

[sk7326]

And the pitchers who can do so successfully do become better late game relievers. Bard and Kelly both lacked that skill and try/tried to rely on pure power to blow hitters away. But there are plenty of MLB hitters who have the patience to wait them out and take what is being handed to them.

 

A few months ago, I had some high hopes for Kelly and wanted the Sox to bring him back. I'm not as pro-Kelly as I once was because I think the Sox can get better relief pitching to replace him...

 

Bard had a quality splitter iirc too. Kelly's lack of secondary stuff is the real problem. Kimbrel's success this year for instance has come by often pitching backwards.

[notin]

Bard had a quality splitter iirc too. Kelly's lack of secondary stuff is the real problem. Kimbrel's success this year for instance has come by often pitching backwards.

 

But don't get too worked up with the variety of offerings a pitcher has. It's not like Aroldis Chapman or Mariano Rivera mixed up their pitches to be successful.

 

There is no magic formula for success. But keeping it in the strike zone, not giving free passes, and allowing hitters to get themselves out, which they all do the majority of the time, is about as close as it gets. And if a pitcher cna do that with one pitch or if he needs three, it doesn't matter. What matters is that he does it...

[moonslav59]

But don't get too worked up with the variety of offerings a pitcher has. It's not like Aroldis Chapman or Mariano Rivera mixed up their pitches to be successful.

 

There is no magic formula for success. But keeping it in the strike zone, not giving free passes, and allowing hitters to get themselves out, which they all do the majority of the time, is about as close as it gets. And if a pitcher cna do that with one pitch or if he needs three, it doesn't matter. What matters is that he does it...

 

Very well said.

 

The hard part is that most RP'ers don't "do it" on a consistent basis. Signing someone who has done well for a year or two barely matters. It takes great scouting and talent evaluation to find the hidden gems. We rarely find them, and when we do, like with Brasier, it is usually just for a short period of time.

 

The Rockies went all out on builing up their pen. They are in first place, but not really due to these guys:

 

6.27 Brian Shaw

4.55 Wade Davis

6.27 Jake McGee

Edited September 14, 2018 by moonslav59

[sk7326]

But don't get too worked up with the variety of offerings a pitcher has. It's not like Aroldis Chapman or Mariano Rivera mixed up their pitches to be successful.

 

There is no magic formula for success. But keeping it in the strike zone, not giving free passes, and allowing hitters to get themselves out, which they all do the majority of the time, is about as close as it gets. And if a pitcher cna do that with one pitch or if he needs three, it doesn't matter. What matters is that he does it...

 

To be a good starter, you need three good pitches.

 

To be a good reliever, you need two. Rivera threw his cutter the vast majority of the time. He also had a useful four-seam fastball to get strikes on the other side of the plate and to keep hitters from timing the cutter. Chapman has a good slider. Uehara had pristine command of his fastball and a wipeout splitter. Kelly's non-fastball stuff is ordinary at best.

[sk7326]

Very well said.

 

The hard part is that most RP'ers don't "do it" on a consistent basis. Signing someone who has done well for a year or two barely matters. It takes great scouting and talent evaluation to find the hidden gems. We rarely find them, and when we do, like with Brasier, it is usually just for a short period of time.

 

The Rockies went all out on builing up their pen. They are in first place, but not really due to these guys:

 

6.27 Brian Shaw

4.55 Wade Davis

6.27 Jake McGee

 

Relievers are a fleeting, unpredictable species. Any deal over 2-3 years is asking for trouble. The best option is always just keep throwing bodies at the problem until something hits. Hell, in 2003 the bullpen was utterly flammable, but Epstein kept trying and trying and they hit on something that finally worked late in the season.

[kenmeister]

Relievers are a fleeting, unpredictable species. Any deal over 2-3 years is asking for trouble. The best option is always just keep throwing bodies at the problem until something hits. Hell, in 2003 the bullpen was utterly flammable, but Epstein kept trying and trying and they hit on something that finally worked late in the season.

 

I will never forget Timlin and Williamson watching helplessly as Pedro flamed out in the 8th inning.

[sk7326]

I will never forget Timlin and Williamson watching helplessly as Pedro flamed out in the 8th inning.

 

The best part of that was it was the second time Grady ended up doing that - you would have thought after riding Pedro too long in Oakland that he'd have learned something.

[Spudboy]

Joe Kelly manages to simultaneously throw the ball real hard while not actually having a very effective fastball.

 

In a good interview with Barstoole Sports he revealed that he has no idea of where his fastball is going. He said he was not joking.

[Kimmi]

Relievers are a fleeting, unpredictable species. Any deal over 2-3 years is asking for trouble. The best option is always just keep throwing bodies at the problem until something hits. Hell, in 2003 the bullpen was utterly flammable, but Epstein kept trying and trying and they hit on something that finally worked late in the season.

 

I love this post.

[Bellhorn04]

Relievers are a fleeting, unpredictable species. Any deal over 2-3 years is asking for trouble. The best option is always just keep throwing bodies at the problem until something hits. Hell, in 2003 the bullpen was utterly flammable, but Epstein kept trying and trying and they hit on something that finally worked late in the season.

 

I love this post.

 

But Theo also signed Keith Foulke that offseason.

 

And he signed a bunch of relievers this past offseason.

 

So what do ye say to that?

[moonslav59]

The best part of that was it was the second time Grady ended up doing that - you would have thought after riding Pedro too long in Oakland that he'd have learned something.

 

I said at the time, and still believe it today, I'll take a Pedro at 50% over any relief pitcher we had ready.

 

It's not like the opponents were lighting Pedro up. Most of the hits were bloopers or seeing eye grounders until the 3 hard hits in a row..

[Bellhorn04]

I said at the time, and still believe it today, I'll take a Pedro at 50% over any relief pitcher we had ready.

 

It's not like the opponents were lighting Pedro up. Most of the hits were bloopers or seeing eye grounders until the 3 hard hits in a row..

 

But that stats that year showed clearly that Pedro lost a big part of his effectiveness at about 105 pitches. Theo went over those stats with Grady before the game and I think virtually ordered him not to let Pedro go over that limit.

 

Plus Timlin and Embree had stellar numbers that postseason.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm with sk7326. Closers are vastly overpaid, including Kimbrel, who can't pitch in the 8th, can't go more than 3 outs, etc. Thus he never, ever has to face the same hitter twice in a single game.

 

A rarity, but I disagree with moonslav about 2003 and Pedro for exactly that reason--he was facing the Yankee lineup for the 3d or 4th time. Grady sucked in Boston and after Boston. How do I know? He had two MLB managing jobs in his 50's, got canned by both teams, and never managed again. He is, however, in the Kingston, NC Professional Baseball Hall of Fame. So there's that.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm with sk7326. Closers are vastly overpaid, including Kimbrel, who can't pitch in the 8th, can't go more than 3 outs, etc. Thus he never, ever has to face the same hitter twice in a single game.

 

True enough, but you also have to look at all of our wins where Kimbrel recorded the last 3 outs, and think of what it would have been like if it was someone like Kelly trying to close out those games.

 

Kimbrel has a 1.86 ERA for his career and a .92 WHIP.

[FredLynn]

Seems Barnes is on his way back.....the season is saved.

 

"Pete Abraham

‏

Verified account

 

@peteabe

 

Some #RedSox stuff:

 

* Eduardo Nunez (right knee) will work out tomorrow and could play Sunday.

* Matt Barnes (left hip) threw a bullpen today, scheduled to again on Sunday. Could see him in a game next week.

* Porcello will be held to 5-6 IP tomorrow to control his workload."

[Kimmi]

But Theo also signed Keith Foulke that offseason.

 

And he signed a bunch of relievers this past offseason.

 

So what do ye say to that?

 

If I'm not mistaken, after Foulke went south after 2004, Theo commented that signing Foulke to what was then a big deal was not a good idea.

 

When he was with the Sox, Theo was very much in agreement with the 'collect as many bodies as you can and see what sticks' philosophy. I haven't followed all of his BP moves that closely since he went to the Cubs, but I know that he has signed acquired some big names. Maybe he's losing his touch in his old age. LOL

[notin]

True enough, but you also have to look at all of our wins where Kimbrel recorded the last 3 outs, and think of what it would have been like if it was someone like Kelly trying to close out those games.

 

Kimbrel has a 1.86 ERA for his career and a .92 WHIP.

 

Pushing the strawman argument? It's not like Kelly and Kimbrel are the only two options available.

 

What about Brasier? He has been worth 0.7 fWAR in only 28IP, which is essentially the same pace as Kimbrel, who has been worth 1.4 fWAR in 58IP. In Brasier's very limited career, he has a 1.69ERA and 0.94 WHIP...

[moonslav59]

But that stats that year showed clearly that Pedro lost a big part of his effectiveness at about 105 pitches. Theo went over those stats with Grady before the game and I think virtually ordered him not to let Pedro go over that limit.

 

Plus Timlin and Embree had stellar numbers that postseason.

 

I'm never one to think just because someone is doing great (Embree & Timlin) it is highly likely they will continue to do so.

 

I'm not saying Grady's choice was 1005 correct, but I think there was plenty of reasons to defend his choice (in foresight).

 

Had Pedro struck out the next 2 guys, we'd have praised Grady for sticking with the guy who got us there.

 

Note: although Pedro's numbers did drop off after 100 pitches, his OPS after 100 for 2003 was still a very respectable .706.

 

I've seen posters on the game threads say "F___ You, Cora!" for pulling a starter who had gone 7 IP 6 Hits, 2 ER and 1 BB.

 

Pedro was a God. His playoff heroics were many. I don't hold a grudge for that choice. (BTW, Timlin did come in and walk the first 2 guys he faced.)

 

I can understand the anger and outrage and the need to blame someone.

[Bellhorn04]

Pushing the strawman argument? It's not like Kelly and Kimbrel are the only two options available.

 

What about Brasier? He has been worth 0.7 fWAR in only 28IP, which is essentially the same pace as Kimbrel, who has been worth 1.4 fWAR in 58IP. In Brasier's very limited career, he has a 1.69ERA and 0.94 WHIP...

 

Brasier has been very good, in a small sample as you say.

 

Kimbrel has been very good for a long time.

 

There has to be something to be said for his kind of consistency and durability.

[notin]

Brasier has been very good, in a small sample as you say.

 

Kimbrel has been very good for a long time.

 

There has to be something to be said for his kind of consistency and durability.

 

And that something is that he is going to want to get paid for until well after it’s gone, limiting the Sox ability to retain the Killer B’s...

[Bellhorn04]

And that something is that he is going to want to get paid for until well after it’s gone, limiting the Sox ability to retain the Killer B’s...

 

Yeah, I don't really disagree there. Dombrowski has some tough/interesting choices to make this offseason and next.

[notin]

Yeah, I don't really disagree there. Dombrowski has some tough/interesting choices to make this offseason and next.

 

Let Kimbrel and Sale (after 2019) walk. It starts there.

 

Both of them likely have their most expensive and least effective days left...

[moonslav59]

Let Kimbrel and Sale (after 2019) walk. It starts there.

 

Both of them likely have their most expensive and least effective days left...

 

You're probably right, but I've always liked Sale and wanted him on the Sox.

 

After all, we're talking about...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!