The Alex Cora Managerial Decision Thread

[Thunder]

Re: the discussion about JBJ.

 

Cora is clearly experimenting, which he said he would to before the season started. Plus we are 9 games into a 162 game season, we are 8-1, and these experiments have demonstrably not prevented us from winning games. They have, on the other hand, given Cora an eyeful of what Beni can do in CF and JD in LF and RF. That can't be all bad.

 

This represents my thoughts exactly. I like to not look too far into things, as long as we continue winning. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. I really like his emphasis on resting players every now and again, especially after how well it worked for the Astros last year. This is certainly not a bad thing, but many people on these boards get way too wrapped up in this stuff. It's only April 9. It's not even spring yet, as far as the temperature is concerned. Let's relax and see how this thing plays out first. In the meantime, as you said, it's not costing us any games right now.

[moonslav59]

That's frankly not enough ABs for Ramirez (or for that matter Moreland).

 

Is Moreland a significant upgrade over JBJ's bat to warrant the huge drop in defense?

 

Yes, maybe HRam and Moreland "deserve" more PAs but not on this team.

 

I'm still baffled by the Moreland signing. That $13m could have been spent or saved for the summer. We have Swihart and Travis as back-ups to HRam. Duda could have accomplished more for our offense, or Moose could have helped our defense and been a better offensive threat than Moreland.

[moonslav59]

This represents my thoughts exactly. I like to not look too far into things, as long as we continue winning. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. I really like his emphasis on resting players every now and again, especially after how well it worked for the Astros last year. This is certainly not a bad thing, but many people on these boards get way too wrapped up in this stuff. It's only April 9. It's not even spring yet, as far as the temperature is concerned. Let's relax and see how this thing plays out first. In the meantime, as you said, it's not costing us any games right now.

 

So, we waitr until it costs us a game(s) and then react?

 

I hope we "learned" what should have already been known:

 

JMart sucks in the OF.

 

JBJ is much better than Beni in CF defense (and so far, not much worse on offense than Beni)

 

It's not rocket science.

 

[Hitch]

Cora should just pack his bags now. Moon got this.

[moonslav59]

Cora should just pack his bags now. Moon got this.

 

I'm very happy we replaced JF with Cora.

 

I may disagree with some of his "experimenting", and I hope it was just that, or I might change my mind, but I'm not even close to being for Cora packing his bags.

 

(My guess is that all the "analytics" will show JMart should not play the OF more than our eyes told us.)

[S5Dewey]

To me, the choice is simple and clear, at least after "experimenting" over the first 9 games.

 

JMart should DH FT, and he can play OF at NL parks. Try to schedule his days of rest at NL parks to minimize his OF exposure.

 

Beni, JBJ and Betts are our FT OF'ers. Get them rest when they need it and maybe "rest" JBJ more, especially when we put JMart in the OF at NL parks.

 

HRam & Moreland share 1B duties. I'd use Moreland as a late inning defensive replacement as much as needed, and I'd start Moreland vs more RHPs than I think most here would want.

 

When Pedey returns, and we need to find playing time for Nunez, we should know more about JBJ's offensive level. We might adjust OF playing time to allow Nunez to play LF here and there.

 

There is somewhat of a conflict here though. If we're going to put Nunez into the OF "here and there" it's going to cut into the number of games/innings JDM spends in the OF. (A good thing, BTW).

 

It's a hard call to say when JDM should be in the OF. The argument certainly can be made that if he (JDM) is going to play in the OF it should be in Fenway where LF is smaller rather than on the road where parks have a more spacious outfield. I don't ever want to see him there but if there's some kind of a wink-wink, nod-nod agreement between him and the club I guess we're going to have to live with it. OTOH we need to get JDM's bat into the lineup in the NL parks and the thought of having Hanley and JDM back to back there is enticing.

 

In thinking while I'm typing, possibly the best solution is to put Nunez in LF (and I don't know why I'm saying this when I've never even seen him in the OF) in Fenway when players need a day off, let JDM play in the OF in the NL parks, and hope for the best on those NL park days.

[moonslav59]

There is somewhat of a conflict here though. If we're going to put Nunez into the OF "here and there" it's going to cut into the number of games/innings JDM spends in the OF. (A good thing, BTW).

 

It's a hard call to say when JDM should be in the OF. The argument certainly can be made that if he (JDM) is going to play in the OF it should be in Fenway where LF is smaller rather than on the road where parks have a more spacious outfield. I don't ever want to see him there but if there's some kind of a wink-wink, nod-nod agreement between him and the club I guess we're going to have to live with it. OTOH we need to get JDM's bat into the lineup in the NL parks and the thought of having Hanley and JDM back to back there is enticing.

 

In thinking while I'm typing, possibly the best solution is to put Nunez in LF (and I don't know why I'm saying this when I've never even seen him in the OF) in Fenway when players need a day off, let JDM play in the OF in the NL parks, and hope for the best on those NL park days.

 

I'm of the mind that our young OF'ers only really need, at most, 5-7 days off.

 

We play at NL parks at these times:

 

May 31-June 3 (4 games at HOU)

July 2-4 (3 games at WSH)

Aug 14-15 (2 games at PHI)

Sep 3-5 (3 games at ATL)

 

That's almost perfectly spaced to give each OF'er 4 days off. That allows JMart or Nunez to play the OF in NL parks 12 out of the 12 games, if we want. Maybe an OF'er might need a rest before or in between some of these dats, then fine, give JMart or Nunez a game here or there, at those times.

 

I'm okay with resting JBJ a little more than he "needs" to get more offense and allow Nunez more PAs, but no more than 12-14 games total- no injury-related. (This assumes he's hitting above .580 or so.)

[mvp 78]

I'm of the mind that our young OF'ers only really need, at most, 5-7 days off.

 

'Stros only had 2 guys play more than 150 games, both of which were IFers.

 

It was a team largely built on big bats with meh gloves. This is probably why Cora is ok with throwing JD out in LF more than you'd like him to. Also why HanRam is getting so much run this year.

[moonslav59]

'Stros only had 2 guys play more than 150 games, both of which were IFers.

 

It was a team largely built on big bats with meh gloves. This is probably why Cora is ok with throwing JD out in LF more than you'd like him to. Also why HanRam is getting so much run this year.

 

They had a tremendous bench, including 2 OF'er with much better defensive skills than JMart, Nunez, Swihart or Holt. Plus they hit better than our OF:

 

Marwin Gonzalez .907

Jake Marisnick .815

 

Plus, they didn't have a clear best 3 OF'ers, and Reddick got hurt/ Beltran became 'washed up".

[mvp 78]

They had a tremendous bench, including 2 OF'er with much better defensive skills than JMart, Nunez, Swihart or Holt. Plus they hit better than our OF:

 

Marwin Gonzalez .907

Jake Marisnick .815

 

Plus, they didn't have a clear best 3 OF'ers, and Reddick got hurt/ Beltran became 'washed up".

 

We have a clear best 3 Ofers? JD/Betts/Beni/JBJ. I count 4.

[sk7326]

Is Moreland a significant upgrade over JBJ's bat to warrant the huge drop in defense?

 

Yes, maybe HRam and Moreland "deserve" more PAs but not on this team.

 

I'm still baffled by the Moreland signing. That $13m could have been spent or saved for the summer. We have Swihart and Travis as back-ups to HRam. Duda could have accomplished more for our offense, or Moose could have helped our defense and been a better offensive threat than Moreland.

 

The Sox, like a lot of teams - probably did not expect the market for guys like Moose to run dry as much as it did. It also hurt Moustakas that he frankly has not actually been that good - last year is what the bet is, and defensively he is more "okay" than Machado-like at 3B.

 

Given that he was there effectively as insurance, $6.5M for Moreland is fine. The team should keep him away from LHPs, but it is a good problem to have.

[moonslav59]

We have a clear best 3 Ofers? JD/Betts/Beni/JBJ. I count 4.

 

Okay. We put Jmart in the OF and what?

 

We get Moreland's bat in the line-up over JBJ?

 

Swihart?

 

Holt?

 

If we do get an offensive gain from one of those guys over JBJ, the defensive loss negates the gain and then some.

 

BTW, small sample sizes for all, but...

 

2018 OPS

 

.533 Swihart

.399 JBJ

.300 Holt

.297 Moreland

[moonslav59]

The Sox, like a lot of teams - probably did not expect the market for guys like Moose to run dry as much as it did. It also hurt Moustakas that he frankly has not actually been that good - last year is what the bet is, and defensively he is more "okay" than Machado-like at 3B.

 

Given that he was there effectively as insurance, $6.5M for Moreland is fine. The team should keep him away from LHPs, but it is a good problem to have.

 

Nobody was talking to Moose all winter. We made a mistake and not just with Moose. There were other choices and no hurry to lock Moreland up.

[moonslav59]

We have a clear best 3 Ofers? JD/Betts/Beni/JBJ. I count 4.

 

The Astros had two "clear FT OF'ers" and both were hurt for a while.

[sk7326]

Nobody was talking to Moose all winter. We made a mistake and not just with Moose. There were other choices and no hurry to lock Moreland up.

 

I'm not really sure Moustakas is actually that good ...

[sk7326]

Nobody was talking to Moose all winter. We made a mistake and not just with Moose. There were other choices and no hurry to lock Moreland up.

 

I think they dismissed it out of hand for that reason - which may or may not have been a mistake.

[mvp 78]

Kimmi is right on this one. The oil pattern changes (tho not drastically) as the day/tournament goes on. Bowlers also tend to carry both 15 and 16 lb balls with a various assortment of styles (densities, high/low mass, coverstocks). There is both a little bit of luck and a little bit of repeatable skill.

[a700hitter]

As I said, you have a lot to learn about bowling. You are way off base with your bowling post.

 

So don't respond to me if you can't take me seriously.

 

That's your defense every time you are losing a debate.

I know some bowlers on the professional senior circuit, and I have a lot of excellent bowlers among my friends and family -- lots of 300 games.

 

As far as taking you seriously, it is hard when you go off into crazy town about issues like this calling them facts. Based on your theory (not a fact as you say) since randomness is the predominant factor in close games, there is often not a deserving first place team or deserving champion as most of the time the margins of victory are decided by winning more close games than the other team, especially in the post season. What about football, does the same rule of randomness hold there as well? Six of the 8 Super Bowls by BB's teams were decided by 4 points or less and another one had a 6 point difference and was an overtime game. Were the Super Bowl winners of those games deserving or just lucky?

[a700hitter]

Kimmi is right on this one. The oil pattern changes (tho not drastically) as the day/tournament goes on. Bowlers also tend to carry both 15 and 16 lb balls with a various assortment of styles (densities, high/low mass, coverstocks). There is both a little bit of luck and a little bit of repeatable skill.

They practice with their bowling balls a tremendous amount. I used to bowl at Maple lanes in Brooklyn. John Petraglia was there all the time. It was as if he lived there. It was as a repeatable skill as you will ever see.

[mvp 78]

They practice with their bowling balls a tremendous amount. I used to bowl at Maple lanes in Brooklyn. John Petraglia was there all the time. It was as if he lived there. It was as a repeatable skill as you will ever see.

 

If it was repeatable, they'd bowl 300 every string.

[a700hitter]

If it was repeatable, they'd bowl 300 every string.

I didn't say that it was precisely repeatable. No skill is. It was as repeatable a skill as you could witness, but they are human. Even though they were able to repeat the skill better than the rest of us mere humans, there were minor differences in their precision. That is why they don't bowl 300 every time.

[illinoisredsox]

If it was repeatable, they'd bowl 300 every string.

 

Even if it could be repeated precisely every time, chaos theory also comes into play (in this case, changing lane conditions, slight difference in pin placement, etc). You can repeat the motion while still having the end result be different.

[moonslav59]

I'm not really sure Moustakas is actually that good ...

 

He's not, but it doesn't take much to be better than Devers defensively and Moreland offensively.

[Bellhorn04]

He's not, but it doesn't take much to be better than Devers defensively and Moreland offensively.

 

Let's suppose the Red Sox did sign Moose. Devers moves to first, where does that leave HanRam and JMart?

[a700hitter]

Even if it could be repeated precisely every time, chaos theory also comes into play (in this case, changing lane conditions, slight difference in pin placement, etc). You can repeat the motion while still having the end result be different.

No, the immutable laws of physics are set in motion on every roll of the ball.

[Spudboy]

I'm not really sure Moustakas is actually that good ...

 

You are being polite.

[Kimmi]

Here are some interesting numbers on the 1-run game thing.

 

Red Sox championship seasons:

 

2004 1-run games 16-18 .471 other games 82-46 .641

2007 1-run games 22-28 .440 other games 74-38 .661

2013 1-run games 21-21 .500 other games 76-44 .633

 

Which certainly supports the idea that your record in 1-run games in itself means jacksquat...

 

And in those same seasons, here are the records in blow out games (5+ runs):

2004 36-20, .643

2007 36-17, .679

2013 33-13, .717

 

You can tell a lot more about the talent of a team by looking at its record in blow out games.

 

A team's record in 1 run games pretty much tells you nothing, except maybe how lucky or unlucky a team has been.

[Kimmi]

It certainly seems as though if you pick the right years necessary to prove your point, anything can be quantified can't it. Obviously the players who play, the coaches who coach, and the old fans who still believe that better teams tend to be more successful in close contests than their lesser opponents just don't get it. lol - too stubborn to change our thinking I guess. I wonder if it is still ok for us to believe and maybe even talk about such things? A little sarcasm there but just trying to add a little humor.

 

It's not 'picking the right years'. You will be able to find good teams that have good records in one run games. You will be able to find bad teams that have good records in one run games. Team records in one run games are all over the place. That's the point. It's very random.

[Kimmi]

Re: the discussion about JBJ.

 

Cora is clearly experimenting, which he said he would to before the season started. Plus we are 9 games into a 162 game season, we are 8-1, and these experiments have demonstrably not prevented us from winning games. They have, on the other hand, given Cora an eyeful of what Beni can do in CF and JD in LF and RF. That can't be all bad.

 

Cora came to the team with several ideas that he wanted to implement, based on their success with the Astros. One of them was resting players regularly. Another was to sit a player at the first sign of a slump. In the long run, I think it will help our players to stay fresh.

 

That said, I really wouldn't mess with the alignment of Beni, JBJ, and Betts in the outfield.

[Kimmi]

I wasn't being sarcastic. I really do not put much emphasis on a cherry-picked 3 season sample size, even though it seemingly supports my position.

 

It's not just a matter of cherry picked stats though.