The Alex Cora Managerial Decision Thread

[devildavid]

I am of the opinion that a manager's in game decisions do not impact the outcome of the games as much as most people think they do. To blame a manager for the loss of a game is silly.

 

You are absolutely right. A manager can't call for a strikeout play or a homerun play. If the manager has done their job before the game begins there is little else of major impact they can have during the game.

[Nick]

I know this isn't going to go over well, but truth be told, the outcomes of all of our games so far is largely random. We could just as easily be 0-4, 1-3, 2-2, or 4-0.

 

In close games, randomness is king.

 

So do we need a closer?

[Kimmi]

You are absolutely right. A manager can't call for a strikeout play or a homerun play. If the manager has done their job before the game begins there is little else of major impact they can have during the game.

 

I completely agree, of course.

[devildavid]

Wow. Only 3 games in and only one inning where Sox pitching has allowed more than 1 run, and already NINE PAGES worth of posts second-guessing Cora.

 

Somewhere, John Farrell is laughing....

 

I hope he is. Farrell did a good job managing the Red Sox and has a World Series ring to prove it as well as back to back division titles.

[Kimmi]

So do we need a closer?

 

Sure, but what does that have to do with randomness?

 

Do we need to spend a boatload on a 'great closer'? Absolutely not.

[Nick]

Sure, but what does that have to do with randomness?

 

Do we need to spend a boatload on a 'great closer'? Absolutely not.

 

I'm not a very smart man but

 

Closer by definition comes in to 'save' a close game. If close game is won randomly, we can probably get away with anyone decent in the pen. Just like last night when Kelly came in to save the game. No?

[cp176]

I'm not a very smart man but

 

Closer by definition comes in to 'save' a close game. If close game is won randomly, we can probably get away with anyone decent in the pen. Just like last night when Kelly came in to save the game. No?

 

In Kimbrel, we are talking possibly the best or close to the best closer in the game today. If he has a year like last year, you have to make a run at him. When you have the best, I think that you have to hope that you can resign him. I'm not talking abut throwing everything that you have at the guy but you have to make a run at him. When I look at what he has meant to this team, I guess that I would have to say that outside of Sale, on the significantly important scale, he would be the next guy on my list. I think that he has been and is that important.

[Maxbialystock]

I like great closers because we have seen some pretty good ones. They do make a difference. What's worth debating is how much they should be paid.

[moonslav59]

In Kimbrel, we are talking possibly the best or close to the best closer in the game today. If he has a year like last year, you have to make a run at him. When you have the best, I think that you have to hope that you can resign him. I'm not talking abut throwing everything that you have at the guy but you have to make a run at him. When I look at what he has meant to this team, I guess that I would have to say that outside of Sale, on the significantly important scale, he would be the next guy on my list. I think that he has been and is that important.

 

Even if Kimbrel doesn't have a great season, I'd probably want to bring him back. He may even count slightly less after a less than great season.

[Natick to NC]

I'd ask teams right now what they would give up for Kelly the closer.....if they offer multiple sticks of bazoooooka bubble gum ? He's on the next flight with his buddy Holt carrying his bags .

[moonslav59]

I'd ask teams right now what they would give up for Kelly the closer.....if they offer multiple sticks of bazoooooka bubble gum ? He's on the next flight with his buddy Holt carrying his bags .

 

LOL, I'm surprised you didn't throw Leon into the fire, errr, I mean deal.

[Emp9]

I know this isn't going to go over well, but truth be told, the outcomes of all of our games so far is largely random. We could just as easily be 0-4, 1-3, 2-2, or 4-0.

 

In close games, randomness is king.

 

In close games, Kimbrel is King.

 

But I do agree, typically the closer the game, the less it takes for any mundane, but game deciding play to happen and change a would be W to an L or vice-versa.

 

Having a great Closer can help tremendously, but it’s not a lock.

[Emp9]

Sure, but what does that have to do with randomness?

 

Do we need to spend a boatload on a 'great closer'? Absolutely not.

 

Great closers can certainly cut down the randomness. They’re the “Ace” of the Bullpen in a way. That’s what they get paid to do and they’re pretty good at it.

[Spudboy]

I know this isn't going to go over well, but truth be told, the outcomes of all of our games so far is largely random. We could just as easily be 0-4, 1-3, 2-2, or 4-0.

 

In close games, randomness is king.

 

It's a good thing they play 162 games.

[Bellhorn04]

You are absolutely right. A manager can't call for a strikeout play or a homerun play. If the manager has done their job before the game begins there is little else of major impact they can have during the game.

 

Well, there are a lot of substitutions that occur in baseball games.

 

To totally dismiss the importance of handling these properly seems unfair to the manager, IMO. They can't just take a snooze in the dugout...they have to be pretty alert.

[Bellhorn04]

A good example of manager's decisions was in the Yankees game yesterday. It all came down to whether DRob should pitch to Donaldson or Smoak. DRob had excellent numbers against Smoak and bad ones against Donaldson. But Donaldson is apparently hampered by a shoulder injury and Smoak is red hot. It wasn't an easy decision to make. In this case Boone apparently let DRob decide.

[oldtimer]

Well, there are a lot of substitutions that occur in baseball games.

 

To totally dismiss the importance of handling these properly seems unfair to the manager, IMO. They can't just take a snooze in the dugout...they have to be pretty alert.

 

I'm with you in this regard. Timing of pitching substitutions, steal, hit and run, shifts, pinch hitters, defensive substitutions and many more are under the managers control. In addition, the manager is following the game and hopefully encouraging his guys. Of course the behind the scenes work is done before the game, and we don't see that, but there are the in game items that make a difference.

[S5Dewey]

A traditional line up works, but how does anyone know that it's the best way to set a line up? How do you know another line up won't work better? Are we just going to accept that a traditional line up is the best line up because that's the way it's always been done?

I agree with this, but at the same time we can't go around saying it's not as important as 'most people' think it is because we don't know.

[a700hitter]

I agree with this, but at the same time we can't go around saying it's not as important as 'most people' think it is because we don't know.

Have you ventured back north yet?

[S5Dewey]

Have you ventured back north yet?

 

Wednesday. Ugh. I think you missed the best weather - it's here now. And BTW, thanks for the good company. I'd watch a game with you anytime!

 

I'm hearing that nearly all of the snow has melted in coastal Maine and temps are above freezing every day now. Hey, we take our blessings as we find them.

 

Assuming most everyone will be reading this, I'd like to put together a meeting of Talk Sox folks at a Sea Dogs game this summer so please be thinking about a date if you're at all interested. I'll post something in the Tickets, etc.thread later in the season

[cp176]

Wednesday. Ugh. I think you missed the best weather - it's here now. And BTW, thanks for the good company. I'd watch a game with you anytime!

 

I'm hearing that nearly all of the snow has melted in coastal Maine and temps are above freezing every day now. Hey, we take our blessings as we find them.

 

Assuming most everyone will be reading this, I'd like to put together a meeting of Talk Sox folks at a Sea Dogs game this summer so please be thinking about a date if you're at all interested. I'll post something in the Tickets, etc.thread later in the season

 

We'll figure out a date - i'm in you already know. In western Maine, winter is begrudgingly giving way to spring. It is a secret but you know it is why we live here.

[a700hitter]

Wednesday. Ugh. I think you missed the best weather - it's here now. And BTW, thanks for the good company. I'd watch a game with you anytime!

 

I'm hearing that nearly all of the snow has melted in coastal Maine and temps are above freezing every day now. Hey, we take our blessings as we find them.

 

Assuming most everyone will be reading this, I'd like to put together a meeting of Talk Sox folks at a Sea Dogs game this summer so please be thinking about a date if you're at all interested. I'll post something in the Tickets, etc.thread later in the season

Spring Training is a blast, and it was a pleasure taking in a couple of games with you again this year. Did your Cubs fan friend go to the 2 Cubs games?

 

Count me in for the Sea Dogs game!

[harmony]

I suspect the Red Sox don't miss former hitting coach Chili Davis, who was quoted in this ESPN piece about the Cubs striking out an NL record 58 times in their first five games this year:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23006550/chicago-cubs-set-dubious-nl-record-58-strikeouts-first-five-games

[S5Dewey]

Spring Training is a blast, and it was a pleasure taking in a couple of games with you again this year. Did your Cubs fan friend go to the 2 Cubs games?

 

Count me in for the Sea Dogs game!

 

Check your PM's. Other posters probably don't want to read our drivel.

[Bellhorn04]

Sure, but what does that have to do with randomness?

 

Do we need to spend a boatload on a 'great closer'? Absolutely not.

 

If we look at Ben's attempts to secure a closer, he made 3 separate trades for high profile closer types-Bailey, Melancon and Hanrahan, all of which failed. He traded away quite a few players in the process-Reddick and Lowrie the only ones who may have been missed, I think.

 

Ben also signed Koji Uehara, which was a brilliant success and one of the best moves of his tenure.

 

Dombrowski went for the conservative and expensive play with Kimbrel. Dombrowski had come in for a lot of criticism in his tenure with the Tigers about his bullpens and closers. Tigers fans may forever believe they would have beaten us in 2013 if they had a real deal closer who wouldn't have blown Game 2.

[moonslav59]

If we look at Ben's attempts to secure a closer, he made 3 separate trades for high profile closer types-Bailey, Melancon and Hanrahan, all of which failed. He traded away quite a few players in the process-Reddick and Lowrie the only ones who may have been missed, I think.

 

Ben also signed Koji Uehara, which was a brilliant success and one of the best moves of his tenure.

 

Dombrowski went for the conservative and expensive play with Kimbrel. Dombrowski had come in for a lot of criticism in his tenure with the Tigers about his bullpens and closers. Tigers fans may forever believe they would have beaten us in 2013 if they had a real deal closer who wouldn't have blown Game 2.

 

Good points.

 

I loved the Uehara deal at the time, and although he was not really a closer with Texas and Baltimore too much, he had a longer stretch of success than Melancon and maybe the others as well (not Kimbrel). Great get by Ben!

 

Here's what I look at for RP'ers: WHIP and OPS against.

 

Uehara:

WHIP Year OPS against

0.955 2010 .594

0.723 2011 .535

0.639 2012 .466

Then, of course, the astounding 0.565 in 2013 (.400 OPS against!) with the Sox (0.521 in the playoffs!)

 

Melancon

1.408 2009 .655

1.266 2010 .674

1.224 2011 .631

 

Hanrahan

1.206 2010 .649

1.049 2011 .543 (Pretty amazing)

1.274 2012 .648

 

Bailey (was trending badly)

0.876 2009 .476 (WOW!)

0.959 2010 .544

1.104 2012 .631

 

Kimbrel (trending badly before we traded for him but still great)

0.654 2012 .358 (Better than Uehara's 2013!)

0.881 2013 .487

0.908 2014 .430

1.045 2015 .569

 

(2017: 0.681/ .444)

[Maxbialystock]

Lots of excursions in this thread--all good.

 

I do agree with the notion that managers make a difference during games. Yes, of course players make the biggest difference, but managers during games adjust fielders locations (shifts), signal baserunners, hitters, and sometimes pitches, use pinch hitters, and of course control who pitches and when.

 

Where I part company with managerial critics is in the presumption that we know better than the managers. I did exactly that in game 1 when Kelly and Smith gave up 6 runs in the 8th, but upon reflection I decided Cora's decisions had a pretty good basis. Both are experienced relievers with a good array of pitches, but of course location is so critical every time a pitcher goes to the mound, and the manager can't be sure how that will hold up. Neither one that day had the right stuff, but even then it was a close call because we had two outs and a 4-2 lead before Denard tripled with the bases loaded. Kimbrel, our 8 figure closer, has pitched just two innings and gotten two saves. One was vintage Kimbrel and a dominant performance. The second was a tad precarious when he got the last out with the tying run on 2b and after he had given up a single and a walk.

 

I also find it fascinating that, with all the acclaim for now five straight terrific starts (30 innings, 3 runs), few have acknowledged that Cora in all five games had to manage his bullpen through an average of 3 innings per game and that overall that has gone well--except for the disastrous 8th in game 1. Games 2, 3, and 4 were all 1-run wins, which to me means you need a decent bullpen and a manager who knows how to use it. Something else no one but me has pointed out is that in the first four games Cora used all 13 position players in the starting lineup, 4 of his starters, and all 7 relievers.

 

In other words, to me the evidence to date is that Cora was a solid pick.

Edited April 3, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[Emp9]

Lots of excursions in this thread--all good.

 

I do agree with the notion that managers make a difference during games. Yes, of course players make the biggest difference, but managers during games adjust fielders locations (shifts), signal baserunners, hitters, and sometimes pitches, use pinch hitters, and of course control who pitches and when.

 

Where I part company with managerial critics is in the presumption that we know better than the managers. I did exactly that in game 1 when Kelly and Smith gave up 6 runs in the 8th, but upon reflection I decided Cora's decisions had a pretty good basis. Both are experienced relievers with a good array of pitches, but of course location is so critical every time a pitcher goes to the mound, and the manager can't be sure how that will hold up. Neither one that day had the right stuff, but even then it was a close call because we had two outs and a 4-2 lead before Denard tripled with the bases loaded. Kimbrel, our 8 figure closer, has pitched just two innings and gotten two saves. One was vintage Kimbrel and a dominant performance. The second was a tad precarious when he got the last out with the tying run on 2b and after he had given up a single and a walk.

 

I also find it fascinating that, with all the acclaim for now five straight terrific starts (30 innings, 3 runs), few have acknowledged that Cora in all five games had to manage his bullpen through an average of 3 innings per game and that overall that has gone well--except for the disastrous 8th in game 1. Games 2, 3, and 4 were all 1-run wins, which to me means you need a decent bullpen and a manager who knows how to use it. Something else no one but me has pointed out is that in the first four games Cora used all 13 position players in the starting lineup, 4 of his starters, and all 7 relievers.

 

In other words, to me the evidence to date is that Cora was a solid pick.

 

Great post Max. I can remember defending Farrell a bit earlier in seasons just over the fact he, like any manager, needs to find out what he has to work with. At times, he needs to push the envelope and the earlier in the season the better.

 

Another thing is that We as Sox fans, us diehards on here, not the fair weather fans on facebook for instance, know our players. We’ve seen our players more than a new manager like Cora has. Now, it’s quite possible Cora knows them better, but it’s a straight up fact we’ve seen them more (than him). I think that plays into questioning a new manager.

 

I’m liking what I see from Cora. Theres a great chance he works out better with our youth than Farrell ever did. Fans forget, the media forget, that theres still so much youth on this team. We only have a handful of veterans that drive up our average age. Cora seems like a better choice than most for our team and I’m down for giving him some leeway (for now ).

[Maxbialystock]

Emp9: You're right. We (not me, but talksox overall) do know these players pretty well and possibly better than Cora.

 

That said, I do like how Cora has handled this team in the first 5 games, including three 1-run wins. He's basically played everyone on the 25 man roster, including starting all 13 position players, even Swihart.

 

That said, the biggest plus by far is the rotation, and most of the credit for those 5 starts redounds to the pitchers. Even there, however, he insisted on not overpitching Sale and Price in ST and limited their pitches in their first starts.

 

I believe he is still evaluating everyone--as he should be.

[a700hitter]

Lots of excursions in this thread--all good.

 

I do agree with the notion that managers make a difference during games. Yes, of course players make the biggest difference, but managers during games adjust fielders locations (shifts), signal baserunners, hitters, and sometimes pitches, use pinch hitters, and of course control who pitches and when.

 

Where I part company with managerial critics is in the presumption that we know better than the managers. I did exactly that in game 1 when Kelly and Smith gave up 6 runs in the 8th, but upon reflection I decided Cora's decisions had a pretty good basis. Both are experienced relievers with a good array of pitches, but of course location is so critical every time a pitcher goes to the mound, and the manager can't be sure how that will hold up. Neither one that day had the right stuff, but even then it was a close call because we had two outs and a 4-2 lead before Denard tripled with the bases loaded. Kimbrel, our 8 figure closer, has pitched just two innings and gotten two saves. One was vintage Kimbrel and a dominant performance. The second was a tad precarious when he got the last out with the tying run on 2b and after he had given up a single and a walk.

 

I also find it fascinating that, with all the acclaim for now five straight terrific starts (30 innings, 3 runs), few have acknowledged that Cora in all five games had to manage his bullpen through an average of 3 innings per game and that overall that has gone well--except for the disastrous 8th in game 1. Games 2, 3, and 4 were all 1-run wins, which to me means you need a decent bullpen and a manager who knows how to use it. Something else no one but me has pointed out is that in the first four games Cora used all 13 position players in the starting lineup, 4 of his starters, and all 7 relievers.

 

In other words, to me the evidence to date is that Cora was a solid pick.

Why do I get the feeling that you will continue to argue about game 1 until game 162, unless everyone agrees with you. Argue away. Cora made a mistake in game 1. It wasn't Kelly's day. He just didn't have it. His mother probably could have told Cora to get him out of there after the second walk. Managers make plenty of mistakes. You tend to think that any criticism of a managerial move is a complete condemnation of the manager as evidenced by the last sentence of your post about Cora being "a solid pick." No one has said otherwise, but he screwed the pooch in game 1, which is in the rear view mirror after a 4-1 start. There is plenty of inexplicable managerial stupidity in dugouts throughout the major leagues. Cora doesn't have the market cornered on that aspect. Hey, maybe he left Kelly in, because he didn't have anyone warming in his bullpen. Edited April 3, 2018 by a700hitter