A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[notin]

Now Price not opting out is a mixed blessing. If he was fantastic, he probably opts out - and in a sense the deal worked out for everybody. But he has been good.

 

The $30M would have been nice for lots of reasons - but not a big deal ultimately. As long as this team is competitive, they'll pay for the roster. Some of their roster choices will be tricky (Bogaerts and Bradley and Sale in their own ways) but ownership has been willing to pay for a contender, and there is no reason to think that will change. (and again given the price charged to consumers - that certainly is the way it ought to be)

 

 

Well, they were a bit hesitant to pay for anything in 2012, when the Sox had to move Marco Scutaro for budgetary reasons, and in 2017 when re-setting the luxury tax became a priority...

[Kimmi]

I did and still do think that is the only chance that Price opts out, but it has always been a very slim chance. And given how last year's free agent market was for spending, it's practically a negligible one...

 

Agreed.

[Kimmi]

Now Price not opting out is a mixed blessing. If he was fantastic, he probably opts out - and in a sense the deal worked out for everybody. But he has been good.

 

The $30M would have been nice for lots of reasons - but not a big deal ultimately. As long as this team is competitive, they'll pay for the roster. Some of their roster choices will be tricky (Bogaerts and Bradley and Sale in their own ways) but ownership has been willing to pay for a contender, and there is no reason to think that will change. (and again given the price charged to consumers - that certainly is the way it ought to be)

 

Ownership can afford to pay for any player they want. They have shown a willingness to do so, to an extent.

 

Ownership is not going to spend without limit, however.

[sk7326]

Well, they were a bit hesitant to pay for anything in 2012, when the Sox had to move Marco Scutaro for budgetary reasons, and in 2017 when re-setting the luxury tax became a priority...

 

In the latter case - they did not materially impact their ability to contend. Since all of their best players were on pre-arb kind of deals (save for Price) - they were able to do this while adding to the team.

 

2014 involved placing some bets that did not work, and a commentary on the general sustainability of 2013. And their big pay/no pay decision was Ellsbury - and 99 out of 100 dentists would have recommended the Red Sox let him walk.

[sk7326]

Ownership can afford to pay for any player they want. They have shown a willingness to do so, to an extent.

 

Ownership is not going to spend without limit, however.

 

Having a fan base that has shown a willingness to pay virtually any price, and a league luxury tax system that is not really much of a deterrent for anything ... doesn't mean the team won't actually try to make good baseball decisions. Dombrowski has done an excellent job so far - and clearly has a mandate for the Sox to embrace their big-market advantages. As it should be.

[notin]

In the latter case - they did not materially impact their ability to contend. Since all of their best players were on pre-arb kind of deals (save for Price) - they were able to do this while adding to the team.

 

2014 involved placing some bets that did not work, and a commentary on the general sustainability of 2013. And their big pay/no pay decision was Ellsbury - and 99 out of 100 dentists would have recommended the Red Sox let him walk.

 

 

Well, a lot of fans felt that not replacing David Ortiz - or effectively replacing him with Mitch Moreland - was a mistake. Especially with Edwin Encarnacion drawing limited interest from the league and overtly stating he wanted to come to Boston to replace Ortiz, as he felt that would be an honor to follow his fellow countryman. That decision did have drastic ramifications, as the Sox came in last in the AL in home runs by a very, very wide margin and Encarnacion finished tied for 8th in the AL with 38 HRs. (Moreland did hit 22, but was a significantly lesser player offensively than Encarnacion.)

 

Of course, it is entirely possible Dombrowski was not exactly enamored with Encarnacion, as he would later turn down a Bradley-Encarnacion trade offer. (That may have also been turned down for other reasons, as well.)

[sk7326]

Well, a lot of fans felt that not replacing David Ortiz - or effectively replacing him with Mitch Moreland - was a mistake. Especially with Edwin Encarnacion drawing limited interest from the league and overtly stating he wanted to come to Boston to replace Ortiz, as he felt that would be an honor to follow his fellow countryman. That decision did have drastic ramifications, as the Sox came in last in the AL in home runs by a very, very wide margin and Encarnacion finished tied for 8th in the AL with 38 HRs. (Moreland did hit 22, but was a significantly lesser player offensively than Encarnacion.)

 

Of course, it is entirely possible Dombrowski was not exactly enamored with Encarnacion, as he would later turn down a Bradley-Encarnacion trade offer. (That may have also been turned down for other reasons, as well.)

 

I think if the Red Sox knew that the market would be so dry for Encarnacion maybe things work out differently. In any case Dombrowksi though the Red Sox had a playoff team anyway - and they did. It is funny how easy it is to forget that the team won the division despite so many things going wrong.

[moonslav59]

Going over the max penalty line multiple times would really hurt.

 

I doubt that it in Henry's plans going forward. We are straddling the line right now.

 

We lose HRam's and other players' contracts this winter, but arb raises and filling Kimbrel's shoes will be costly.

[sk7326]

Going over the max penalty line multiple times would really hurt.

 

I doubt that it in Henry's plans going forward. We are straddling the line right now.

 

We lose HRam's and other players' contracts this winter, but arb raises and filling Kimbrel's shoes will be costly.

 

It would hurt Henry's wallet. The draft pick penalties (assuming the team is good) are pretty inconsequential. I mean the Red Sox drop 10 spots in the draft - the expected value of the 40th pick relative to the 30th pick is virtually nothing.

[Bellhorn04]

Going over the max penalty line multiple times would really hurt.

 

I doubt that it in Henry's plans going forward. We are straddling the line right now.

 

We lose HRam's and other players' contracts this winter, but arb raises and filling Kimbrel's shoes will be costly.

 

It's by no means a given that they let Kimbrel walk, either.

[Nick]

If we win the World Series, Sox can pretty much do anything and fans will be okay with it.

 

What am I saying? Explore trades. Trade out some expensive players for younger talent.

 

Again start at $239M, subtract Hanley ($22M), Pom ($9M), Kelly ($3.8M), add $9M for additonal space on Luxury Tax, Kimbrel ($13M) for total of approximately $57M to sign a closer (could be Kimbrel) and cover arbitration raises.

 

Personally I'd go for another World Championship and keep the payroll slightly under the second tier penalty.

[notin]

If we win the World Series, Sox can pretty much do anything and fans will be okay with it.

 

 

Except not win another one...

[mvp 78]

It's by no means a given that they let Kimbrel walk, either.

 

Unless they have a good fallback plan, they better not let him walk.

[moonslav59]

It would hurt Henry's wallet. The draft pick penalties (assuming the team is good) are pretty inconsequential. I mean the Red Sox drop 10 spots in the draft - the expected value of the 40th pick relative to the 30th pick is virtually nothing.

 

I don't think Henry wants to be known as the second coming of George Steinbrenner. Yes, he can afford to pay the max tax plus the taxes from other tax levels below the max tax line plus the full salaries of current and past players still on the books. Most owners could, if they wanted. Probably all could afford to spend $300+M.

 

I know the draft penalty is rather minimal, but with a weak farm like ours, one in great need of top talent infusion, any ding hurts.

 

[moonslav59]

It's by no means a given that they let Kimbrel walk, either.

 

No, but replacing the $13M Kimbrel with a $20M Kimbrel will be costly.

[mvp 78]

No, but replacing the $13M Kimbrel with a $20M Kimbrel will be costly.

 

Replacing Kimbrel with a mediocre reliever at $5M will be even more costly.

[notin]

No, but replacing the $13M Kimbrel with a $20M Kimbrel will be costly.

 

Especially since he is a potentially declining Kimbrel.

 

His walks and home runs are up over last year and his strikeouts are down. It might be a one season blip, but if this trens continues, he has the potential to be another Sandoval/Hanley type contract at some point. And if he turns into a $100mill mop up guy, that will have severe negative impact on the ability of this team going forward...

[kenmeister]

I think closers have a really short shelf life. I wouldn't break the bank over Kimbrel.

 

Eovaldi is the trickiest pitcher right now for me to judge. I'm not sure what the Sox should do with him.

[Nick]

Basically anyone can see the talent in Kimbrel two years ago. It's just money and players to get him.

 

Can we identify next great closer? Isn't that what good baseball people are able to do?

 

Who saw Brasier coming this year after spending several years away from MLB? Bonus to the scout that saw him overseas.

[notin]

I think closers have a really short shelf life. I wouldn't break the bank over Kimbrel.

 

Eovaldi is the trickiest pitcher right now for me to judge. I'm not sure what the Sox should do with him.

 

Convert him to closer?

[moonslav59]

Replacing Kimbrel with a mediocre reliever at $5M will be even more costly.

 

True, but with the other $15M, we could get 2-3 very good set-up men, as one example.

 

I didn't say we shouldn't pay Kimbrel, I'm just saying it will be costly.

 

Now, I will say it. I would not pay Kimbrel $100M/5 or more. I don't think I'd even play $80M/5, which he will get.

[moonslav59]

Can we just spend the money on the Mets people who find all their great SP'ers?

 

That's gotta be cheaper than spending money and talent on signing and trading for them.

[Nick]

Rank relievers for the playoffs as of today. I don't want Kelly. 2nd coming of Clay B.

 

Brasier, Thornburg, Barnes, Hembree, Johnson, Vector, Poyner, Wright, Workman, Scott, Eavoldi. Who is 1-7?

[Nick]

Can we just spend the money on the Mets people who find all their great SP'ers?

 

That's gotta be cheaper than spending money and talent on signing and trading for them.

 

Or Tampa Bay?

[Nick]

True, but with the other $15M, we could get 2-3 very good set-up men, as one example.

 

I didn't say we shouldn't pay Kimbrel, I'm just saying it will be costly.

 

Now, I will say it. I would not pay Kimbrel $100M/5 or more. I don't think I'd even play $80M/5, which he will get.

 

That's why if we win the Big One this year, this organization needs to do some soul searching. How to set up for success over next several years and not just 2019. At some point, we'll have to reset our payroll structure. Soon to be expensive players coming due for free agency while we have high sticker price players already under long term contracts.

[moonslav59]

Or Tampa Bay?

 

I was gonna sat both teams.

[Bellhorn04]

Rank relievers for the playoffs as of today. I don't want Kelly. 2nd coming of Clay B.

 

Brasier, Thornburg, Barnes, Hembree, Johnson, Vector, Poyner, Wright, Workman, Scott, Eavoldi. Who is 1-7?

 

Brasier

Barnes

Workman

Wright

Hembree

Eovaldi

Poyner

[moonslav59]

That's why if we win the Big One this year, this organization needs to do some soul searching. How to set up for success over next several years and not just 2019. At some point, we'll have to reset our payroll structure. Soon to be expensive players coming due for free agency while we have high sticker price players already under long term contracts.

 

1. Win this year.

2. Decide who to keep and pay them. (I'd like to keep Betts, Sale and JBJ.)

3. Build the farm- most likely through IFA signings (see #4).

4. Trade some talent for younger players and international bonus money.

5. Sign mid level players to 1-3 year deals for a while.

[moonslav59]

Brasier

Barnes

Workman

Wright

Hembree

Eovaldi

Poyner

 

No Kimbrel?

[mvp 78]

That's why if we win the Big One this year, this organization needs to do some soul searching. How to set up for success over next several years and not just 2019. At some point, we'll have to reset our payroll structure. Soon to be expensive players coming due for free agency while we have high sticker price players already under long term contracts.

 

Having good players means you typically have a high payroll. It's the price of doing business if you want to be competitive every year. Teams like the A's and Rays can only compete every few years because of their salary constraints. Handwringing over the Sox payroll doesn't make much sense to me. You can't run this team like it's Milwaukee.