A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

Interesting that Dalbec was both Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year. Devers, Chavis and Dalbec our future DH/1B/3B combo?

 

I'm thinking we might be lucky, if just one of Dalbec or Chavis become more than just role or platoon players.

 

I'm not down on them, but neither are top 100 prospects.

 

I kinda think Ockimey might have a better shot at being a plus ML player someday.

 

[moonslav59]

Trey Ball is going to play OF in the Fall league along with others going to that league listed here....

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2018/09/trey-balls-outfield-conversion-to.html

Edited September 17, 2018 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

Interesting that Dalbec was both Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year. Devers, Chavis and Dalbec our future DH/1B/3B combo?

 

For next year, both are well thought of but not can't miss prospects. Chavis to the Arizona league, a plus move and Dalbec our offensive and defensive player of the year. We have a couple of others but one needs seasoning and the other has power but has not reached ML status as yet. I do hope one of the guys makes it next season since we need some lower cost players to balance our roster.

[Bellhorn04]

quite honestly, he should just retire. We're going to win 105+ without him. Let that sink in.

 

Let what sink in?

 

We're having a rare, magical season where most everything has gone right. It doesn't mean a truly healthy Pedroia wouldn't have helped, or wouldn't help next year.

[moonslav59]

Let what sink in?

 

We're having a rare, magical season where most everything has gone right. It doesn't mean a truly healthy Pedroia wouldn't have helped, or wouldn't help next year.

 

The only reason 2B is not a problem now is because we have Kinsler.

 

Kinsler is a free agent, so we will need somebody next year. It's back to square one.

[mvp 78]

Pedroia is going to give it another go next year. If that falls apart again, he'll most likely retire.

 

We'll see him next spring. It's not like we have a great replacement at 2b ready to go in the minors.

[moonslav59]

Pedroia is going to give it another go next year. If that falls apart again, he'll most likely retire.

 

We'll see him next spring. It's not like we have a great replacement at 2b ready to go in the minors.

 

I've long had hopes for Marco Hernandez, but the guy is always hurt.

[sk7326]

I'm thinking we might be lucky, if just one of Dalbec or Chavis become more than just role or platoon players.

 

I'm not down on them, but neither are top 100 prospects.

 

I kinda think Ockimey might have a better shot at being a plus ML player someday.

 

 

Dalbec has an 80 arm and (from reports) has shown he can really pick it at 3B. The rub is there is not a great history of success for dudes who swing and miss as much as he does against non-big leaguers. Dalbec has made progress, but there is a lot of variability there. Can he make enough contact at the big league level to get on base enough to let the defense and power play. (like Josh Reddick's travails in his pre-Oakland career)

 

Ockimey is higher floor lower ceiling. And his value has to be in his bat - because it's not going to be anywhere else.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec has an 80 arm and (from reports) has shown he can really pick it at 3B. The rub is there is not a great history of success for dudes who swing and miss as much as he does against non-big leaguers. Dalbec has made progress, but there is a lot of variability there. Can he make enough contact at the big league level to get on base enough to let the defense and power play. (like Josh Reddick's travails in his pre-Oakland career)

 

Ockimey is higher floor lower ceiling. And his value has to be in his bat - because it's not going to be anywhere else.

 

If you had to assign a percentage on the chance that JUST ONE of Chavis, Dalbec or Ockimey becomes a plus player at the ML player, what would it be?

 

I'd say maybe 30-40% all 3 combined.

[Slasher9]

It's not a rational market - because there are not a lot of quality players. Teams play a premium to win the process. Now while this is long run inefficient - flags fly forever, and the early part of the contract can justify the net worth of the deal in general. And with the owners having been found guilty of collusion before, any mass reduction is looked at (correctly) with suspicion.

 

i dont think i ever got your response:

it's not the salary i want. i was asking for your opinion. so what are you willing to offer?

you replied to my earlier post and said "No, you go the other way ... offer him more money on a shorter deal."

so i asked you what your offer would be?

[sk7326]

If you had to assign a percentage on the chance that JUST ONE of Chavis, Dalbec or Ockimey becomes a plus player at the ML player, what would it be?

 

I'd say maybe 30-40% all 3 combined.

 

40-50% of at least one of them. Chavis and Dalbec have plus (or close to plus) in SOME areas. And Dalbec seems to be a good athlete.

[sk7326]

i dont think i ever got your response:

it's not the salary i want. i was asking for your opinion. so what are you willing to offer?

you replied to my earlier post and said "No, you go the other way ... offer him more money on a shorter deal."

so i asked you what your offer would be?

 

2 yrs/40-45m ... the yearly salary interests me less than the years. It's the years that is always the limiting factor.

[S5Dewey]

40-50% of at least one of them. Chavis and Dalbec have plus (or close to plus) in SOME areas. And Dalbec seems to be a good athlete.

 

I saw Dalbeck play in Portland this year and one thing about him that impressed me is that he's built like an athlete. He's tall with broad shoulders and long arms, the kind of build that should generate a lot of power.

[moonslav59]

40-50% of at least one of them. Chavis and Dalbec have plus (or close to plus) in SOME areas. And Dalbec seems to be a good athlete.

 

I don't think it's any higher than 50%.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dalbec has an 80 arm and (from reports) has shown he can really pick it at 3B. The rub is there is not a great history of success for dudes who swing and miss as much as he does against non-big leaguers. Dalbec has made progress, but there is a lot of variability there. Can he make enough contact at the big league level to get on base enough to let the defense and power play. (like Josh Reddick's travails in his pre-Oakland career)

 

Ockimey is higher floor lower ceiling. And his value has to be in his bat - because it's not going to be anywhere else.

 

I was about to say Judge, but Judge was well below Dalbec's line this year. He struck out over 30 more times than Judge's career minor league high. Once Judge got to the bigs, he struck out far more. Dalbec is striking out around the same level as Joey Gallo. While Gallo brings premium power, his contact rate is so low that it drives down his OBP. Interesting to say the least, but I don't think one can really expect Dalbec to be a top tier level player

[sk7326]

I don't think it's any higher than 50%.

 

I tend to be positive about athletes who get better at stuff as they get exposure ... so Dalbec gives some optimism, albeit cautious

[sk7326]

I was about to say Judge, but Judge was well below Dalbec's line this year. He struck out over 30 more times than Judge's career minor league high. Once Judge got to the bigs, he struck out far more. Dalbec is striking out around the same level as Joey Gallo. While Gallo brings premium power, his contact rate is so low that it drives down his OBP. Interesting to say the least, but I don't think one can really expect Dalbec to be a top tier level player

 

The Red Sox example here is Yoan Moncada.

[moonslav59]

I tend to be positive about athletes who get better at stuff as they get exposure ... so Dalbec gives some optimism, albeit cautious

 

I might be more optimistic, if these guys were 21 and in AA or AAA, but Chavis and Dalbec are both 23 and were in AA this year. (Chavis was promoted to AAA during the season.)

 

These are older guys playing against younger players.

 

They are flip examples of Devers who continually played against much older and more experienced players and still raked.

[Nick]

I might be more optimistic, if these guys were 21 and in AA or AAA, but Chavis and Dalbec are both 23 and were in AA this year. (Chavis was promoted to AAA during the season.)

 

These are older guys playing against younger players.

 

They are flip examples of Devers who continually played against much older and more experienced players and still raked.

 

If that's the case we better quit drafting college kids. Aren't they 21 usually when drafted after junior year? How many position players jump right into majors?

 

Case can be made it's better because at 28 they may still be under team control.

[jacksonianmarch]

If that's the case we better quit drafting college kids. Aren't they 21 usually when drafted after junior year? How many position players jump right into majors?

 

Case can be made it's better because at 28 they may still be under team control.

 

The average AA player is a touch over 24. AAA is almost 26.

[Nick]

Is Brasier good enough to be a closer?

[Nick]

The average AA player is a touch over 24. AAA is almost 26.

 

Thank you for that. Moon thinks Dalbec is old?

[sk7326]

I might be more optimistic, if these guys were 21 and in AA or AAA, but Chavis and Dalbec are both 23 and were in AA this year. (Chavis was promoted to AAA during the season.)

 

These are older guys playing against younger players.

 

They are flip examples of Devers who continually played against much older and more experienced players and still raked.

 

You are off by a level or two here.

[moonslav59]

Thank you for that. Moon thinks Dalbec is old?

 

23 is not young, especially at AA.

 

No, it's not "old."

[mvp 78]

Is Brasier good enough to be a closer?

 

No.

[notin]

No.

 

Why not?

[oldtimer]

Is Brasier good enough to be a closer?

 

Who else other than Kimbrel on the Sox would beat him out? Barnes maybe?

[notin]

The average AA player is a touch over 24. AAA is almost 26.

 

It's elevated by all those tweener veterans who sign minor league deals and spend the year bussing back and forth to the major league club for 10 day stretches. The actual prospects in AAA have a much younger average...

[moonslav59]

It's elevated by all those tweener veterans who sign minor league deals and spend the year bussing back and forth to the major league club for 10 day stretches. The actual prospects in AAA have a much younger average...

 

True, but I was wrong about saying Dalbec and Chavis are playing against mostly younger players-- younger "prospects" maybe, but most players are older.

[Bellhorn04]

Is Brasier good enough to be a closer?

 

The numbers so far suggest it's possible.

 

But it's a little early to say, isn't it?

 

The guy is an unusual case. He's a 30 year old rookie with 38.1 major league innings under his belt.