A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[vegasbob]

I'll still stick with my original thought on the topic. That the defense has to do one Hell of a lot right in order to catch someone stealing.

 

Definitely agree ; apply the pressure and push the envelope. My comments were sarcastic at best. Sarcasm---Just another service we provide.

[S5Dewey]

There is some subjectivity built into every stat.

 

I have often used strikeouts as an example. It's probably one of the most, if not the most, subjective stat there is. Just consider all of the complaints there have been in the game threads regarding the strike zone. Yet people don't seem to have any problem with trusting the reliability of strike outs, or walks for that matter.

 

However, when it comes to UZR, the thought by many is that it can't be trusted because it's subjective.

 

Why is that?

 

Right or wrong, it's because when we talk about the umpire's calls we're talking about something that's a part of the game, and when we talk about UZR we're talking about statistics.

 

Call me a little OCD if you must (and you may be right! LOL) but when someone tells me about a statistic I want it to be exact. Not 'close enough' & not subject to someone's interpretation, but exact. That's my problem with WAR - Even Fangraphs says it's not exact. Fangraphs admits that "Given the imperfections of some of the available data and the assumptions made to calculate other components, WAR works best as an approximation. A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR..." That's 17% and that's a margin of error that I'm not willing to hang my hat on.

 

But getting back to the point at hand, I'm not prepared to say that just because umpires do something badly that's subjective we shouldn't blindly accept everything that's done subjectively.

[moonslav59]

Today, while watching the Astros game, I noticed Marwin Gonzalez dancing around with his lead off second base while down 1-0 in the 8th to the Giants. He clearly rattled Ray Black, the hard throwing RP'er. He stepped off the mound to regroup just before letting up a 2-run HR by Tyler White. Game time.

[vegasbob]

Today, while watching the Astros game, I noticed Marwin Gonzalez dancing around with his lead off second base while down 1-0 in the 8th to the Giants. He clearly rattled Ray Black, the hard throwing RP'er. He stepped off the mound to regroup just before letting up a 2-run HR by Tyler White. Game time.

 

Don't be bringing the human psyche element into a game between Watson and UZR/WARs

Edited August 8, 2018 by vegasbob

[moonslav59]

Don'y be bringing the human psyche element into a game between Watson and UZR/WARs

 

LOL!

 

I've been linked to stat geeks and metric lovers, which isn't entirely unfounded, but I've played the game enough to know there's a heel of a lot of "human element" that goes into the great game of baseball.

[Nick]

I'm not upset and I really don't care but

 

Brock Holt is 15 for last 84 at bats since July 1.

[Larry Cook]

Today, while watching the Astros game, I noticed Marwin Gonzalez dancing around with his lead off second base while down 1-0 in the 8th to the Giants. He clearly rattled Ray Black, the hard throwing RP'er. He stepped off the mound to regroup just before letting up a 2-run HR by Tyler White. Game time.

 

Mental toughness - some people have it and some people wish they had it.

[moonslav59]

I'm not upset and I really don't care but

 

Brock Holt is 15 for last 84 at bats since July 1.

 

I'm still hopeful his off season workout regime helped with his endurance. maybe this is just a blip, and he'll get hot again.

[Larry Cook]

I'm still hopeful his off season workout regime helped with his endurance. maybe this is just a blip, and he'll get hot again.

 

Weird how he wears down when used regularly,

[moonslav59]

Weird how he wears down when used regularly,

 

He did last all last year, but you have a point.

 

Pitches thrown in 2017:

 

3428 Sale

3383 Porcello

3084 Pom

2462 ERod

1531 Fister

1253 Price

Edited August 8, 2018 by moonslav59

[Spudboy]

I'm still hopeful his off season workout regime helped with his endurance. maybe this is just a blip, and he'll get hot again.

 

Off season work out of Cool Hand Luke.

[moonslav59]

Off season work out of Cool Hand Luke.

 

Luke was buffed out when he took that beating like a man.

[cp176]

Off season work out of Cool Hand Luke.

 

boiled eggs aplenty.

[cp176]

LOL!

 

I've been linked to stat geeks and metric lovers, which isn't entirely unfounded, but I've played the game enough to know there's a heel of a lot of "human element" that goes into the great game of baseball.

 

I read and appreciate your posts even though I may not always agree with what you say because you have actually played the game and understand from a non- sterile perspective What makes it a great game. I understand how important the use of metrics has become and I think that it is important to use them but when too much emphasis is made of them, it tends to make the game a little too clean for me. It is the human element with all of its warts that made me fall in love with baseball. Personally, the statistics for me have always been important but it is the actual play on the field with all of its unmeasuralbes that make it work.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I'm not upset and I really don't care but

 

Brock Holt is 15 for last 84 at bats since July 1.

 

Yeah I've been noticing, seems like he's got one hit in a week and a half.

 

I still can't believe that play by Leon last night, how he held the ball amazes me. What didn't amaze me was JD Martinez. As the Toronto announcers were saying "you can't let him beat you" I said "yeah good luck with that" right before the 2-0 pitch that was turned around and went out in about .4 seconds.

[moonslav59]

I read and appreciate your posts even though I may not always agree with what you say because you have actually played the game and understand from a non- sterile perspective What makes it a great game. I understand how important the use of metrics has become and I think that it is important to use them but when too much emphasis is made of them, it tends to make the game a little too clean for me. It is the human element with all of its warts that made me fall in love with baseball. Personally, the statistics for me have always been important but it is the actual play on the field with all of its unmeasuralbes that make it work.

 

I feel the same way about what makes the game great. Stats and metrics don't make me smile or get angry at plays made by my beloved Sox... the plays do.

 

Baseball talk almost always ends up with comparisons. Past players vs current ones. Era vs era. Sox players vs Yankee players. CF'ers vs CF'ers. CF'er defense vs CF'er defense, etc... We all value some parts of the game more than others, so no metric is going to please everyone, even if we all liked to use metrics.

 

I admire the goal of WAR. In a way it's what we all do at the water cooler, when we say, "Yeah, JD is a better overall hitter than Betts, but Betts' defense makes him a better overall player." We haggle over how much base running should play into the equation. What about clubhouse leadership?

 

WAR tries to do just about everything all at once. It's an impossible task, but a worthy one. It should never end all discussions, and I get how some use it that way and how that sours some against it and not the person using it.

 

BTW, I really enjoy your posts, too.

[Kimmi]

Right or wrong, it's because when we talk about the umpire's calls we're talking about something that's a part of the game, and when we talk about UZR we're talking about statistics.

 

Call me a little OCD if you must (and you may be right! LOL) but when someone tells me about a statistic I want it to be exact. Not 'close enough' & not subject to someone's interpretation, but exact. That's my problem with WAR - Even Fangraphs says it's not exact. Fangraphs admits that "Given the imperfections of some of the available data and the assumptions made to calculate other components, WAR works best as an approximation. A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR..." That's 17% and that's a margin of error that I'm not willing to hang my hat on.

 

But getting back to the point at hand, I'm not prepared to say that just because umpires do something badly that's subjective we shouldn't blindly accept everything that's done subjectively.

 

I'm not talking about the umpires actual calls though. I'm talking about the strikeout statistic. Do you think the strikeout statistic is exact in measuring how many Ks either a pitcher or a batter have? If strike outs are not subject to someone's interpretation, then I don't know what is. That's my point.

 

I'm not saying that anyone has to accept anything blindly. I don't accept UZR blindly. I accept it with a good bit of knowledge, and with understanding of its flaws and shortcomings.

 

I am just questioning why people are willing to accept strikeouts (or any other statistic for that matter) but not UZR. IMO, strikeouts are more subjective than UZR is.

[Kimmi]

Right or wrong, it's because when we talk about the umpire's calls we're talking about something that's a part of the game, and when we talk about UZR we're talking about statistics.

 

Call me a little OCD if you must (and you may be right! LOL) but when someone tells me about a statistic I want it to be exact. Not 'close enough' & not subject to someone's interpretation, but exact. That's my problem with WAR - Even Fangraphs says it's not exact. Fangraphs admits that "Given the imperfections of some of the available data and the assumptions made to calculate other components, WAR works best as an approximation. A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR..." That's 17% and that's a margin of error that I'm not willing to hang my hat on.

 

But getting back to the point at hand, I'm not prepared to say that just because umpires do something badly that's subjective we shouldn't blindly accept everything that's done subjectively.

 

Also, I'm guessing the margin of error for strikeouts is larger than that of WAR.

[moonslav59]

Also, I'm guessing the margin of error for strikeouts is larger than that of WAR.

 

I agree. Umps are trained and calibrated observers just as the UZR/150 guys are.

[a700hitter]

I agree. Umps are trained and calibrated observers just as the UZR/150 guys are.

Very interesting. They are probably much more highly trained, but yet there is still much imprecision. Things are coming more clearly into focus for me this morning.

[Kimmi]

I agree. Umps are trained and calibrated observers just as the UZR/150 guys are.

 

And the umps have no one to 'check and balance' their balls and strikes calls during the game.

 

It's one person's subjective call.

[Kimmi]

Very interesting. They are probably much more highly trained, but yet there is still much imprecision. Things are coming more clearly into focus for me this morning.

 

Translation: Kimmi is right again.

[a700hitter]

Translation: Kimmi is right again.

Take it however you want to take it.

[moonslav59]

And the umps have no one to 'check and balance' their balls and strikes calls during the game.

 

It's one person's subjective call.

 

Umps are monitored by the league, probably like UZR/150 observers who seem to be mistakenly rating some plays.

[Dojji]

Just because ump reviews aren't public, don't make the mistake of believing there's no quality control. The data is far too available for me to think MLB isn't quietly talking to umps who have a bad night.

 

Also lot of umpires self-police, and many of them are as passionate about the game, if not more so, than the people on this forum. There are a few who abuse their authority, but they're so visible exactly because they're exceptions.

Edited August 8, 2018 by Dojji

[cp176]

Personaly it is this subjectivity that comes as a result of the human element that has made the game so very entertaining over the years. The more the effort made to clean up and correct all of the faults that occur as a result of human error in many cases, the game just doesn't feel the same.

[dgalehouse]

At least we know who the umpires are. Who are these UZR geeks ? Somebody's out of work , down on their luck brother in law ?

[dgalehouse]

Personaly it is this subjectivity that comes as a result of the human element that has made the game so very entertaining over the years. The more the effort made to clean up and correct all of the faults that occur as a result of human error in many cases, the game just doesn't feel the same.

 

" Kill the ump " and " Get new glasses , Blue " are all part of the fun of the game. If you want robot umps , why not robot managers , coaches and even players. Let's try to eliminate all mistakes , errors and controversy from the game. That will be awesome.

[Bellhorn04]

At least we know who the umpires are. Who are these UZR geeks ? Somebody's out of work , down on their luck brother in law ?

 

You are touching on something that IMO accounts for a lot of the suspicion many fans have with a stat like UZR.

 

It's a phantom. We can't see it.

[a700hitter]

Here’s where I am at. The umpires who are highly trained and subject to league review on every pitch and play can be very imprecise. We see their mistakes every night. It would be hard for me to believe that UZR and statcast peeps are even close to being as highly trained and reviewed as umpires, but I am supposed to trust their judgment about players on the Red Sox. They are supposed to have a guaranteed lower rate of error than I have. Whoever these people are, they can’t watch the Red Sox for more than 162 games excluding the post season. That is the same number of games that I watch (maybe I miss 2 or 3 tops), but I am supposed to trust their data input.