A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Kimmi]

Both Remy and Eck agreed that this was the best defensive outfield they have ever seen the Sox have. They mentioned Dewey and Lynn, but said they didn't have the speed this crew has. I defer to Remy and Eck

 

That was funny on the telecast. Mr. Rice had something to say about that.

[oldtimer]

It's because outs are so important. In baseball, the out is the most precious commodity. Giving up an out via caught stealing takes away a lot of the value of the stolen base. The break even point varies from year to year, but it's typically somewhere around 70%. Someone who steals 2 out of 3 bases successfully is actually hurting his team.

 

The runners don't usually run on their own but are sent. Therefore, when they are caught stealing is it on the manager or the player? Now stealing to avoid a double play can be a good thing and that has to be considered as well as putting the player into scoring position when they can either be moved to 3rd on an out or score on a single. My view is that is more complicated than just making an out versus stealing a base. Even the pitcher is impacted when the steal occurs as now he is less likely to throw for a ground ball that can move the runner. Don't know if anyone has attempted to review the many aspects of stealing and hit and run versus hanging at 1st base.

[moonslav59]

The runners don't usually run on their own but are sent. Therefore, when they are caught stealing is it on the manager or the player? Now stealing to avoid a double play can be a good thing and that has to be considered as well as putting the player into scoring position when they can either be moved to 3rd on an out or score on a single. My view is that is more complicated than just making an out versus stealing a base. Even the pitcher is impacted when the steal occurs as now he is less likely to throw for a ground ball that can move the runner. Don't know if anyone has attempted to review the many aspects of stealing and hit and run versus hanging at 1st base.

 

Then, there's the distraction factor it has on the pitcher and defense.

[Kimmi]

The runners don't usually run on their own but are sent. Therefore, when they are caught stealing is it on the manager or the player? Now stealing to avoid a double play can be a good thing and that has to be considered as well as putting the player into scoring position when they can either be moved to 3rd on an out or score on a single. My view is that is more complicated than just making an out versus stealing a base. Even the pitcher is impacted when the steal occurs as now he is less likely to throw for a ground ball that can move the runner. Don't know if anyone has attempted to review the many aspects of stealing and hit and run versus hanging at 1st base.

 

All of that stuff is taken into account Oldtimer. The stat geeks are very good at what they do. They understand all of the advantages versus the disadvantages, and they study all of that in depth.

 

Having a runner on 1st base is more beneficial to the batter than having a runner on 2nd base.

[Kimmi]

Then, there's the distraction factor it has on the pitcher and defense.

 

On the whole, the distraction factor hurts the batter in the box more than it hurts the pitcher and the defense.

[moonslav59]

On the whole, the distraction factor hurts the batter in the box more than it hurts the pitcher and the defense.

 

Some hitters, yes. Others, not so much.

 

I'd say having the first baseman holding the runner on the bag and opening a hole in the IF outweighs the batter distraction factor... not to mention other IF'ers who are watching the runner to see if he's running while trying to focus on the pitch and defensive readiness for hit balls.

[S5Dewey]

It's because outs are so important. In baseball, the out is the most precious commodity. Giving up an out via caught stealing takes away a lot of the value of the stolen base. The break even point varies from year to year, but it's typically somewhere around 70%. Someone who steals 2 out of 3 bases successfully is actually hurting his team.

 

The Sox this year have attempted 104 stolen bases and been successful 87 times. That's an 84% success rate. If the break even point is around 70% statistically the Sox should be running MORE. And they're not the only ones:

LAA - 83%

Brewers - 80%

Cleveland - 80%

Baltimore - 78%

Washington - 77%

CWS - 75%

Cincinnati - 74%

Houston - 74%

NYY- 74%

Arizona - 73%

Atlanta - 73%

Minn - 71%

KC - 71%

Texas - 71%

Colorado - 70%

 

Assuming that the 70% success rate is correct then 16 out of the 30 MLB teams - more than half - are at least breaking even on their steals.

 

The problem with statistics in general is that they assume that what happens once will happen again. In the case of stolen bases it's probably safe to assume that if these teams attempted more stolen bases their percentage would go down because they'd be stealing in situations with a higher opportunity to be caught.

 

Here's why you can't say that attempting to steal a base is either good or bad: Like in life, if you're good at something it's a good idea to do it, and if you're not good at it it's a bad idea. However, attempting to steal a base per se is not a bad idea.

[S5Dewey]

All of that stuff is taken into account Oldtimer. The stat geeks are very good at what they do. They understand all of the advantages versus the disadvantages, and they study all of that in depth.

 

Having a runner on 1st base is more beneficial to the batter than having a runner on 2nd base.

 

It may (or may not) be more beneficial to the batter but having a batter on 2B is certainly more beneficial to the team than having one on 1B.

[Bellhorn04]

It may (or may not) be more beneficial to the batter but it's certainly more beneficial to the team.

 

This is a case where it seems obvious that what you say must be true, but you also need to have some stats bear it out. And they do apparently keep stats on this s***, which seems a little crazy, but not really surprising.

[vegasbob]

It may (or may not) be more beneficial to the batter but having a batter on 2B is certainly more beneficial to the team than having one on 1B.

 

Thank you for noticing that fact. Sorry no stats to back that fact up.

[cp176]

It may (or may not) be more beneficial to the batter but having a batter on 2B is certainly more beneficial to the team than having one on 1B.

 

If anyone is playing for an aggressive running team and they are distracted and affected by a player when they attempt to steal a base, there is a good chance that that player should not be playing for that team. I'm a real believer in "what goes around comes around", stealing bases, moving runners along by any means and just in general playing good fundamental baseball is going to make a return.

[dgalehouse]

If there is a stat that shows it is better to have a man on first than a man on second , then it is time to give up.

[Slasher9]

If there is a stat that shows it is better to have a man on first than a man on second , then it is time to give up.

 

Perhaps with a pull hitting lefty up? Bigger hole on the right side with the first baseman holding the runner on and 2nd baseman shading to turn 2...

[dgalehouse]

Perhaps with a pull hitting lefty up? Bigger hole on the right side with the first baseman holding the runner on and 2nd baseman shading to turn 2...

 

That's why they hold the runner on. They don't want him stealing second.

[moonslav59]

The Sox this year have attempted 104 stolen bases and been successful 87 times. That's an 84% success rate. If the break even point is around 70% statistically the Sox should be running MORE. And they're not the only ones:

LAA - 83%

Brewers - 80%

Cleveland - 80%

Baltimore - 78%

Washington - 77%

CWS - 75%

Cincinnati - 74%

Houston - 74%

NYY- 74%

Arizona - 73%

Atlanta - 73%

Minn - 71%

KC - 71%

Texas - 71%

Colorado - 70%

 

Assuming that the 70% success rate is correct then 16 out of the 30 MLB teams - more than half - are at least breaking even on their steals.

 

The problem with statistics in general is that they assume that what happens once will happen again. In the case of stolen bases it's probably safe to assume that if these teams attempted more stolen bases their percentage would go down because they'd be stealing in situations with a higher opportunity to be caught.

 

Here's why you can't say that attempting to steal a base is either good or bad: Like in life, if you're good at something it's a good idea to do it, and if you're not good at it it's a bad idea. However, attempting to steal a base per se is not a bad idea.

 

Thanks for all the research.

 

This is one way to look at it.

 

Had the Sox stole bases at 70% this year, we'd have 73 SBs, instead of 87. So, we're basically talking about just 14 SBs over the break even point. While this is certainly a nice thing to see, it's not something that, in itself, has a major impact on our winning so much. Taking the extra base and messing with defender's positioning and focus helps make it a major impact.

[Slasher9]

That's why they hold the runner on. They don't want him stealing second.

 

And literally just this very minute it would be first and 3rd with 1 out on the nunez hit if xbo didn’t get caught stealing. Would have been a clean hit thru the infield.

[dannycater]

I saw Yaz for years, Lynn, I watched many highlights on Mays, Clemente (who is right up there). What JBJR does few can. He catches virtually anything even remotely near him. He makes so many catches standing up that a lot of today's over-rated guys have to dive for. I'm not off base. Best. Ever. JBJR

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

And literally just this very minute it would be first and 3rd with 1 out on the nunez hit if xbo didn’t get caught stealing. Would have been a clean hit thru the infield.

 

I had no problem with that steal attempt. It's the price you pay for being aggressive and their aggressive base running has worked far more than it has failed.

[OH FOY]

Gary Maddox never gets enough credit for being a great Defensive CF. Used to call him Secretary of Defense. Edited August 6, 2018 by OH FOY!

[dannycater]

Maddox is on my top 5 too

[moonslav59]

I saw Yaz for years, Lynn, I watched many highlights on Mays, Clemente (who is right up there). What JBJR does few can. He catches virtually anything even remotely near him. He makes so many catches standing up that a lot of today's over-rated guys have to dive for. I'm not off base. Best. Ever. JBJR

 

Perhaps his greatest play this year or ever, the one where he did dive towards the LF wall, I heard was rated as 40% catchable. I think he's getting the short end of the stick on some of the defensive metric ratings. I used to think it was because of the way he makes tough plays look easy or that he's not one of the the fastest CF'er in MLB, but now, I'm not so sure.

 

He is certainly, IMO, the best defensive Sox CF'er I've ever seen.

[sk7326]

Perhaps his greatest play this year or ever, the one where he did dive towards the LF wall, I heard was rated as 40% catchable. I think he's getting the short end of the stick on some of the defensive metric ratings. I used to think it was because of the way he makes tough plays look easy or that he's not one of the the fastest CF'er in MLB, but now, I'm not so sure.

 

He is certainly, IMO, the best defensive Sox CF'er I've ever seen.

 

I think it is probably fair to say that his range is more good/very good than outstanding - and the defensive metrics clearly focus on that. He doesn't get credit for an uncommonly good throwing arm for a CF. It also is noteworthy that he also plays next to a RF with outstanding range ... which I imagine has to hurt him a little bit.

[moonslav59]

I think it is probably fair to say that his range is more good/very good than outstanding - and the defensive metrics clearly focus on that. He doesn't get credit for an uncommonly good throwing arm for a CF. It also is noteworthy that he also plays next to a RF with outstanding range ... which I imagine has to hurt him a little bit.

 

I think his very quick jumps in the exact right direction every time makes his range better than just "good/very good."

 

He also takes very long strides which makes it look like he's making up less ground than a player who takes more steps to get to the same ball (or not get to it).

[S5Dewey]

Perhaps his greatest play this year or ever, the one where he did dive towards the LF wall, I heard was rated as 40% catchable. I think he's getting the short end of the stick on some of the defensive metric ratings. I used to think it was because of the way he makes tough plays look easy or that he's not one of the the fastest CF'er in MLB, but now, I'm not so sure.

 

He is certainly, IMO, the best defensive Sox CF'er I've ever seen.

 

That's why he was playing CF even when he was batting <.200. dd do love his d.>

[sk7326]

I think his very quick jumps in the exact right direction every time makes his range better than just "good/very good."

 

He also takes very long strides which makes it look like he's making up less ground than a player who takes more steps to get to the same ball (or not get to it).

 

I do wonder how much Betts playing next to him just removes some of the possibilities to show superior range.

[moonslav59]

That's why he was playing CF even when he was batting <.200. dd do love his d.>

 

The pitchers love him, too!

[Spudboy]

I saw Yaz for years, Lynn, I watched many highlights on Mays, Clemente (who is right up there). What JBJR does few can. He catches virtually anything even remotely near him. He makes so many catches standing up that a lot of today's over-rated guys have to dive for. I'm not off base. Best. Ever. JBJR

 

I won't argue any of this.

 

These guys were all great.

 

So is JBJ.

 

Although he has the benefit of playing in the present so our image of him is fresh.

[S5Dewey]

I won't argue any of this.

 

These guys were all great.

 

So is JBJ.

 

Although he has the benefit of playing in the present so our image of him is fresh.

 

I'm not disputing the fact that sometimes our perception is skewed by actually seeing someone play recently. However, it also can be skewed by a retired player's reputation. There's a lot to the saying, "The older I get the better I was" and IMO it can be paraphrased to "The longer he's been retired the better he was".

 

All I'm saying here is that IMO it's impossible to compare Yaz or Clemente to any current player. We can't do it from memory because some of us haven't even seen Yaz or Clemente, and those who have seen them play may have their opinion skewed one way or the other. We can't even really compare them using stats because the game and the playing conditions have changed. (Astroturf, DH, closers, workout regimens. even video).

 

I'm old enough to have seen Clemente (on tv, infrequently), Yaz, Evans, etc. and I'm left with the opinion that those guys were really good! Then I see Mookie and JBJ make catches in the OF and I have to ask myself if they're better than the players of my youth. I don't have an answer to that question so I content myself with saying that it doesn't matter. I enjoy watching them make their plays and that's all that matters to me.

[a700hitter]

I'm not disputing the fact that sometimes our perception is skewed by actually seeing someone play recently. However, it also can be skewed by a retired player's reputation. There's a lot to the saying, "The older I get the better I was" and IMO it can be paraphrased to "The longer he's been retired the better he was".

 

All I'm saying here is that IMO it's impossible to compare Yaz or Clemente to any current player. We can't do it from memory because some of us haven't even seen Yaz or Clemente, and those who have seen them play may have their opinion skewed one way or the other. We can't even really compare them using stats because the game and the playing conditions have changed. (Astroturf, DH, closers, workout regimens. even video).

 

I'm old enough to have seen Clemente (on tv, infrequently), Yaz, Evans, etc. and I'm left with the opinion that those guys were really good! Then I see Mookie and JBJ make catches in the OF and I have to ask myself if they're better than the players of my youth. I don't have an answer to that question so I content myself with saying that it doesn't matter. I enjoy watching them make their plays and that's all that matters to me.

The truth is that more great glove guys have come through the major leagues than great hitters. A lot of great glove guys never make it out of the minor leagues. There are several great CFers in the AL this generation -- Bradley, Kiermaier, Pillar, Trout, and maybe the best of all is Buxton (can't hit enough to stay in the majors). Probably, the only one that fans will remember is Trout, because he is also a great hitter. People are mentioning Yaz, Dewey, Clemente, Mays etc. , but few mention Paul Blair. He may be the best that I remember. My Dad's generation used to talk about Pete Reiser. No one mentions Darren Lewis. He was pretty darn good.

[moonslav59]

The truth is that more great glove guys have come through the major leagues than great hitters. A lot of great glove guys never make it out of the minor leagues. There are several great CFers in the AL this generation -- Bradley, Kiermaier, Pillar, Trout, and maybe the best of all is Buxton (can't hit enough to stay in the majors). Probably, the only one that fans will remember is Trout, because he is also a great hitter. People are mentioning Yaz, Dewey, Clemente, Mays etc. , but few mention Paul Blair. He may be the best that I remember. My Dad's generation used to talk about Pete Reiser. No one mentions Darren Lewis. He was pretty darn good.

 

Good points. I mentioned Blair and think he was probably the best in my lifetime.

 

I forgot about Darren Lewis. He was right up there with Lynn and Miller just a small notch below JBJ, IMO.