A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

He had a chance to save an inning his last start and Cora was scared to do it. If erod was healthy I would def be begging for a 6 man rotation right now to save Sale bullets.

#savebullets

 

I'd have pulled him an inning early as well.

 

I'm not sure about a 6 man rotation, though it might help Price as well. We shouldn't need it in August with all those days off.

 

Scheduled days off:

 

8/1

8/6

8/13

8/16

8/27

9/6

9/10

9/17

9/27 (nice to have right before 3 game series with Yanks to end the season.)

 

That's 9 days off in the last 2 months! (9 out of 58 days before the last 3 game series.) That's a day off every 6.5 days. That's almost like a 6 man rotation.

[moonslav59]

With just 60 games to go, I think it's a good time to revisit the L-R split concerns I expressed before the season began, namely Beni, Moreland and maybe Devers vs LHPs.

 

Here are the OPS splits:

 

vs RHPs

1.059 Betts

1.059 JD

.969 Beni

.910 Bogey

.885 Moreland

.762 Pearce (with Sox)

.756 Devers

.708 Holt

.684 JBJ

.666 Nunez

.644 Leon

.606 Lin

.558 Swihart

.508 Vaz

 

vs LHPs

1.647 Pearce (with Sox)

1.221 Betts

.884 JD

.862 Holt (Ccontinuing his career reverse splits)

.783 Bogey

.740 Moreland (Doing okay here.)

,728 Beni

.662 Vaz

.601 Leon

.576 Devers

.549 Nunez (Continuing his career reverse splits)

.537 JBJ

.462 Swihart

.167 Lin

 

Platooning Nunez at 3B makes no sense, since he has reverse splits this year and over his career.

 

Holt should probably play 2B vs LHPs and Nunez vs RHPs.

 

Moreland is locked into FT 1B for two reasons: He is doing okay vs LHPs and we have nobody better.

 

Beni's .728 OPS vs LHPs is much better than it was earlier this year and last year. I don't see an argument for platooning him.

 

I might see maybe moving some of these guys around the line up due to their splits, but it looks like Cora was right to not start the year off with any platoons.

 

[Kimmi]

Agreed. Maybe an extra day 3-4 times in August as we have 5 off days, and then keep his pitch count down should be just about right, but it's walking a thin line, if we rest him too much. He's in one of the best grooves seen in MLB. Messing with his timing and schedule could backfire.

 

I'm hopeful Cora is able to keep him fresh through October. Nobody knows if his late season struggles will go away with more rest, but logic suggests it might/should help.

 

I am sure that Cora is not making these decisions on his own, without consulting Sale and having Sale fully on board. I think that if Sale feels like he is being rested too much, to the point where it is disrupting his timing or doing more harm than good, then Cora would cut back on the amount of rest.

 

It's only been 1/2 a season, but my impression is that the team has great belief and trust in Cora. Things tend to work a lot better when the players believe in what they're doing.

[Kimmi]

If we can get it up to 10%, that's a pretty good amount. Plus he also had an easier spring training than normal, where his work load was also decreased.

 

Good point about the spring training workload.

[moonslav59]

I am sure that Cora is not making these decisions on his own, without consulting Sale and having Sale fully on board. I think that if Sale feels like he is being rested too much, to the point where it is disrupting his timing or doing more harm than good, then Cora would cut back on the amount of rest.

 

It's only been 1/2 a season, but my impression is that the team has great belief and trust in Cora. Things tend to work a lot better when the players believe in what they're doing.

 

I totally agree, and I have to think Sale is happy with the way he is being handled. He's on a tremendously great streak.

[Kimmi]

Moon, I don't remember which thread we were discussing base running miscues in, but I wanted to acknowledge that Devers getting doubled off at 2B last night was indeed a boneheaded out, not one that can really be attributed to over aggressiveness.

 

I have to admit, I have a soft spot in my heart for Devers. He's so young.

[Maxbialystock]

Moon, I don't remember which thread we were discussing base running miscues in, but I wanted to acknowledge that Devers getting doubled off at 2B last night was indeed a boneheaded out, not one that can really be attributed to over aggressiveness.

 

I have to admit, I have a soft spot in my heart for Devers. He's so young.

 

Me too. As for last night, he clearly forgot just 1 out because that was not a tough catch in left center. I think JBJ did that twice last year. Far, far more heinous was Sanchez not running out that grounder for the final out last night.

[Maxbialystock]

I'd have pulled him an inning early as well.

 

I'm not sure about a 6 man rotation, though it might help Price as well. We shouldn't need it in August with all those days off.

 

Scheduled days off:

 

8/1

8/6

8/13

8/16

8/27

9/6

9/10

9/17

9/27 (nice to have right before 3 game series with Yanks to end the season.)

 

That's 9 days off in the last 2 months! (9 out of 58 days before the last 3 game series.) That's a day off every 6.5 days. That's almost like a 6 man rotation.

 

I think one day off will come early--tonight. And maybe another tomorrow.

[Kimmi]

Me too. As for last night, he clearly forgot just 1 out because that was not a tough catch in left center. I think JBJ did that twice last year. Far, far more heinous was Sanchez not running out that grounder for the final out last night.

 

I agree. I can forgive Devers for forgetting how many outs there are. Thankfully it did not cost us the game. Hopefully, the coaches make it a teachable moment and Devers learns from it.

 

Failure to run out a grounder and a passed ball is not easily forgivable, especially in that game situation.

[vegasbob]

Good point about the spring training workload.

 

It's always interesting to see how a somewhat arbitrary round number like 100 becomes the keystone for a starting pitcher. Maybe it's equivalent for a reliever is 20 pitches per 3 outs. I'm sure the team data analysts have individual numbers based on past performance for each pitcher and his relative effectiveness, as the overall count goes higher . Observationally, it seems if you can get a pitcher over 25 pitches in any one inning, good things happen on the scoreboard for the offense.

 

The other thing about the 100 pitch milestone is that the starter's pregame routine includes a long toss sequence, 25-30 bullpen pitches, and 8 warm ups from the mound each inning. Of course, the warmups aren't under full stress, but a starter who goes 6 full innings has probably thrown 100 pitches at full effort, and another 100 at 80-90% effort including the 120'-130' long toss session.

[cp176]

Agreed. Maybe an extra day 3-4 times in August as we have 5 off days, and then keep his pitch count down should be just about right, but it's walking a thin line, if we rest him too much. He's in one of the best grooves seen in MLB. Messing with his timing and schedule could backfire.

 

I'm hopeful Cora is able to keep him fresh through October. Nobody knows if his late season struggles will go away with more rest, but logic suggests it might/should help.

 

I agree with everything in your post. I've been very impressed with Cora this season. I haven't always agreed with his decisions but I think that he is good right now and has a chance to be very good. I'm sure that he communicates with all of his players. He knows that he is working with one of the very best in Sale. I bet he listens to him but I also bet that he speaks his mind as well.

[cp176]

I agree with everything in your post. I've been very impressed with Cora this season. I haven't always agreed with his decisions but I think that he is good right now and has a chance to be very good. I'm sure that he communicates with all of his players. He knows that he is working with one of the very best in Sale. I bet he listens to him but I also bet that he speaks his mind as well.

 

One more thing - it amazes me how many people here are already planning for October baseball in late July. My guess is that Chris Sale and the rest of the guys aren't. One day at a time - one game at a time. Sale is thinking about tonight's game as well as his next start. I bet he isn't looking ahead.

[moonslav59]

Moon, I don't remember which thread we were discussing base running miscues in, but I wanted to acknowledge that Devers getting doubled off at 2B last night was indeed a boneheaded out, not one that can really be attributed to over aggressiveness.

 

I have to admit, I have a soft spot in my heart for Devers. He's so young.

 

Me too.

 

Yes, there was no glossing over that play.

[Kimmi]

It's always interesting to see how a somewhat arbitrary round number like 100 becomes the keystone for a starting pitcher. Maybe it's equivalent for a reliever is 20 pitches per 3 outs. I'm sure the team data analysts have individual numbers based on past performance for each pitcher and his relative effectiveness, as the overall count goes higher . Observationally, it seems if you can get a pitcher over 25 pitches in any one inning, good things happen on the scoreboard for the offense.

 

The other thing about the 100 pitch milestone is that the starter's pregame routine includes a long toss sequence, 25-30 bullpen pitches, and 8 warm ups from the mound each inning. Of course, the warmups aren't under full stress, but a starter who goes 6 full innings has probably thrown 100 pitches at full effort, and another 100 at 80-90% effort including the 120'-130' long toss session.

 

Good observations. Yes, you can believe the data analysts keep track of all of those numbers.

 

It seems the 100 pitch marker is now being more and more outweighed by the '3rd time through the order' philosophy. I haven't really paid attention to how closely those two things are related, but my guess is that they go pretty well hand in hand.

[Slasher9]

Did you mean first half 2016 (2.47 ERA)? Or, maybe second half 2017 (3.01)?

 

He also wasn't bad in the first half of 2017 (3.60). I'll take that the rest of 2018!

 

My bad. First 1/2 of 16. Thanks.

[Slasher9]

I'd have pulled him an inning early as well.

 

I'm not sure about a 6 man rotation, though it might help Price as well. We shouldn't need it in August with all those days off.

 

Scheduled days off:

 

8/1

8/6

8/13

8/16

8/27

9/6

9/10

9/17

9/27 (nice to have right before 3 game series with Yanks to end the season.)

 

That's 9 days off in the last 2 months! (9 out of 58 days before the last 3 game series.) That's a day off every 6.5 days. That's almost like a 6 man rotation.

8/13 will get gobbled up by tonight or tomorrow’s rainout.

[Slasher9]

I am sure that Cora is not making these decisions on his own, without consulting Sale and having Sale fully on board. I think that if Sale feels like he is being rested too much, to the point where it is disrupting his timing or doing more harm than good, then Cora would cut back on the amount of rest.

 

It's only been 1/2 a season, but my impression is that the team has great belief and trust in Cora. Things tend to work a lot better when the players believe in what they're doing.

You absolutely positively CANNOT and I mean CANNOT have any input on this from Sale. He got his stupid 300 k’s last year and had ZERO bullets left in the game we needed him. Eff what he wants....

[S5Dewey]

Me too.

 

Yes, there was no glossing over that play.

 

I don't care if he's "young". He's been playing this game for ..what?....15 years?...and he doesn't know how to handle himself in that situation yet? Does he even WATCH baseball??

 

He like a few others on this team are fortunate that they have innate talent because their baseball IQ is in the crapper.

[Larry Cook]

You absolutely positively CANNOT and I mean CANNOT have any input on this from Sale. He got his stupid 300 k’s last year and had ZERO bullets left in the game we needed him. Eff what he wants....

 

Last year his arm died in late August and he willed himself to 300. We absolutely need to give him an extra day or two throughout August or his arm will die by the middle of September. It would be so huge to get a win in the first game of a playoff series this year!

[Nick]

It's time to address Joe Kelly issue. April/May, 25 2/3 innings, 10 hits, 6 walks, 1 run. June/July, 15 1/3 innings, 19 hits, 13 walks, 18 runs. His ERA is now 4.79, awful for a reliever. He needs to go on DL.

[jacksonianmarch]

Kelly’s fall from reliability, Smith’s stupid injury and Thornburg’s loss of stuff after TOS leaves your bridge depleted. Nobody has needed to care since your rotation has carried you, your closer is infallible and your offense seems to know the magic amount of runs needed to win the game every time. But the cracks are showing in the pen. With the slide of Moreland and the still lack of reliability of your back end of the lineup, the offense has come out of the break sluggish. Couple that with ERod going down and Pomeranz going the way of Justin Masterson, your rotation is looking like the three horseman and a hope for a good offensive output the final two games of every rotation turn. DD must address this. You’ve now had two 15-2 runs this season. The first one was 17-2 and you had a 6.5 game lead in the division, but eventually the Yanks went ahead by 4. Then the Sox got hot again and jumped up 4 games in the L column. With NY bolstering their club and the subsequent weakening of the clubs around them, it will be very important for DD to steel the club not only to win the division but survive the postseason. When the Sox are facing a team like NY or HOU or CLE and the opposing offense grinds the starters out in 5 innings, who’s coming in with the season on the line? If ERod is done with his ankle injury, who’s throwing game 4 of a playoff series?

[Bellhorn04]

E-Rod's injury is potentially devastating to our season. DD needs to get a starter and a reliever and he knows this full well. What he can pull off remains to be seen.

[Maxbialystock]

I don't care if he's "young". He's been playing this game for ..what?....15 years?...and he doesn't know how to handle himself in that situation yet? Does he even WATCH baseball??

 

He like a few others on this team are fortunate that they have innate talent because their baseball IQ is in the crapper.

 

As I said earlier, I think Devers forgot there was only 1 out. JBJ did that twice last year. It's not about knowing. It's about focus.

[Kimmi]

You absolutely positively CANNOT and I mean CANNOT have any input on this from Sale. He got his stupid 300 k’s last year and had ZERO bullets left in the game we needed him. Eff what he wants....

 

I disagree Slash. Besides thinking that it's important to have input from the players, I don't think Sale is driven by personal accomplishments to the point where he would sacrifice the team's goals. I don't think he was pushing to stay in that game just so he could get to 300 Ks.

[Kimmi]

Kelly’s fall from reliability, Smith’s stupid injury and Thornburg’s loss of stuff after TOS leaves your bridge depleted. Nobody has needed to care since your rotation has carried you, your closer is infallible and your offense seems to know the magic amount of runs needed to win the game every time. But the cracks are showing in the pen. With the slide of Moreland and the still lack of reliability of your back end of the lineup, the offense has come out of the break sluggish. Couple that with ERod going down and Pomeranz going the way of Justin Masterson, your rotation is looking like the three horseman and a hope for a good offensive output the final two games of every rotation turn. DD must address this. You’ve now had two 15-2 runs this season. The first one was 17-2 and you had a 6.5 game lead in the division, but eventually the Yanks went ahead by 4. Then the Sox got hot again and jumped up 4 games in the L column. With NY bolstering their club and the subsequent weakening of the clubs around them, it will be very important for DD to steel the club not only to win the division but survive the postseason. When the Sox are facing a team like NY or HOU or CLE and the opposing offense grinds the starters out in 5 innings, who’s coming in with the season on the line? If ERod is done with his ankle injury, who’s throwing game 4 of a playoff series?

 

Stop Jacko. Just stop. The Sox have one bad game and here you are going on with your nonsense again.

 

You need to focus on how your team is going to win the wildcard game.

[Kimmi]

E-Rod's injury is potentially devastating to our season. DD needs to get a starter and a reliever and he knows this full well. What he can pull off remains to be seen.

 

I bet that Dombrowski will pleasantly surprise us before the trade deadline.

[Slasher9]

Stop Jacko. Just stop. The Sox have one bad game and here you are going on with your nonsense again.

 

You need to focus on how your team is going to win the wildcard game.

 

bingo.

[moonslav59]

Kelly’s fall from reliability, Smith’s stupid injury and Thornburg’s loss of stuff after TOS leaves your bridge depleted. Nobody has needed to care since your rotation has carried you, your closer is infallible and your offense seems to know the magic amount of runs needed to win the game every time. But the cracks are showing in the pen. With the slide of Moreland and the still lack of reliability of your back end of the lineup, the offense has come out of the break sluggish. Couple that with ERod going down and Pomeranz going the way of Justin Masterson, your rotation is looking like the three horseman and a hope for a good offensive output the final two games of every rotation turn. DD must address this. You’ve now had two 15-2 runs this season. The first one was 17-2 and you had a 6.5 game lead in the division, but eventually the Yanks went ahead by 4. Then the Sox got hot again and jumped up 4 games in the L column. With NY bolstering their club and the subsequent weakening of the clubs around them, it will be very important for DD to steel the club not only to win the division but survive the postseason. When the Sox are facing a team like NY or HOU or CLE and the opposing offense grinds the starters out in 5 innings, who’s coming in with the season on the line? If ERod is done with his ankle injury, who’s throwing game 4 of a playoff series?

 

You conveniently omit the fact that our middle pen has been carried by Barnes, Hembree and Velazquez/Workman.Poyener/Brasier.

RP'er innings only

IP/ERA

43/ 2.30 Barnes

41/3.73 Hembree

40/2.45 Velazquez

19/2.89 Workman

14/3.68 Walden

11/1.69 Poyner

7.0/0.00 Brasier

 

Maybe you are underselling this group. Some of these guys have been doing well for 2+ years, but because their not named Betances. Robertson and whatever, I guess they suck.

 

Yes, we expected to get 2 reliable set-up men out of Kelly, Smith & Thornburg, but I'm pretty sure DD is going to plug that hole soon, even though there still is a chance Kelly regains form or Thornburg gets stronger.

[moonslav59]

As I said earlier, I think Devers forgot there was only 1 out. JBJ did that twice last year. It's not about knowing. It's about focus.

 

Yes, and this has nothing to do with aggressiveness.

[kenmeister]

your rotation is looking like the three horseman and a hope for a good offensive output the final two games of every rotation turn.

 

Have you not watched Brian Johnson getting better each outing?

 

As for the playoffs, though we just acquired Eovaldi, it will be interesting to see if one of E-Rod or Wright comes back in time.