A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

Why is it so hard for a select few to recognize this Team is not Championship caliber?

 

You're free to have your opinion, but I respectfully disagree. IMO, you can't judge a team on a 2-3 week sample size. heck, sometimes a 2-3 month sample size shows a team is no "championship caliber", but that team ends up winning it all- sometime with a sweep.

 

The roster as constructed was not good enough the past 2 playoffs but yet the same players return and fans talk about a different result.

We added JD. or did you forget. We also had players returning from injuries along with others who played through injuries last year. We have Pedey & Thornburg returning soon.

 

There is zero pitching after Sale and zero relief before Kimbrel.

Porcello is a zero? He won the Cy Young 2 years ago and is looking fine. ERod finally fixed his knee. Pom is looking like he's rounding into shape. I can't blame anyone for not having faith in Price, but there is some hope.

 

BTW, have you seen the staffs of other teams? We have a top 6 or 7 staff at minimum. We are currently 3rd in pitching WAR and 2nd in ERA-, despite injuries and pitchers rehabbing on the fly.

 

The Organization is Tax strapped at the moment to find any pitching help. It boggles my mind how Ownership says in 14 that signing players to big contracts at the age of 30 is not good business. Lester Lackey Miller all gone and Ramirez Sandoval Price are signed.

Another tongue twister is what Cherington was thinking when he signed Ramirez. You had to know of the 2019 Free Agent Class but yet gives Ramirez a vesting option for that year? Same with DD and Price. DD didn't know of the arms in the 19 free agent class? Stupid business.

 

Ownership needs to pull a Cashman. Dump the dead weight to reduce payroll for the 19 Free Agent Bonanza! Pomeranz Erod Kelly Porcello and do not allow Ramirez to vest. Talk Price into opting out? If you have to deal a prospect along with a Porcello type contract to get them out, so be it.

 

Porcello would be gobbled up in a moment without any need for us giving a prospect or paying any portion of his deal.

 

86 win Team with this pitching

 

With all due respect, you're high.

[moonslav59]

I keep hearing people crying about our 2-3 black holes in our line-up (Vaz/Leon and JBJ, and maybe Nunez).

 

Let's look at some other top teams and their worst 3 hitters. (BTW, ourtop 6 guys in tonight's line-up ended the game with an OPS over .785. Betts went 2 for 4 and saw his OPS drop!

 

Out of top 9 players by PAs:

 

NYY

.646 Gardner (3rd in PAs)

.557 Walker (7th)

.684 Hicks (8th)

 

HOU

.615 Gonzalez (5th)

.692 Gurriel (7th)

.620 Gattis (8th)

(.434 Marisnick 10th)

 

(Why do we suck, but these guys are great?)

 

Here's us...

 

.613 Nunez (6th) Pedey on the way back

.520 JBJ (7th) PAs being restricted as we speak

.435 Vaz (8th)

Bogey is 9th in PAs but won't end up there.

Moreland and Holt are 10th and 11th.

 

Leon is 12th in team PAs and it's like he's the reason we are playing .500 ball recently! I can't help but chuckle sometimes.

 

 

[SoxHop]

I keep hearing people crying about our 2-3 black holes in our line-up (Vaz/Leon and JBJ, and maybe Nunez).

 

Let's look at some other top teams and their worst 3 hitters. (BTW, ourtop 6 guys in tonight's line-up ended the game with an OPS over .785. Betts went 2 for 4 and saw his OPS drop!

 

Out of top 9 players by PAs:

 

NYY

.646 Gardner (3rd in PAs)

.557 Walker (7th)

.684 Hicks (8th)

 

HOU

.615 Gonzalez (5th)

.692 Gurriel (7th)

.620 Gattis (8th)

(.434 Marisnick 10th)

 

(Why do we suck, but these guys are great?)

 

Here's us...

 

.613 Nunez (6th) Pedey on the way back

.520 JBJ (7th) PAs being restricted as we speak

.435 Vaz (8th)

Bogey is 9th in PAs but won't end up there.

Moreland and Holt are 10th and 11th.

 

Leon is 12th in team PAs and it's like he's the reason we are playing .500 ball recently! I can't help but chuckle sometimes.

 

 

 

Seriously...... you put me in perspective sometimes. I love it.

[Larry Cook]

Come August few on this board will remember how we played in May.

[moonslav59]

Come August few on this board will remember how we played in May.

 

It's how we play in October that will be most memorable.

[Maxbialystock]

I do understand the somewhat philosophical point that August and October are more memorable than May, but May is where we are right now. It is a fact that we had a big lead over the Yankees and are now 1/2 game back of them.

 

I like moonslav's point that the bottom third of the order, bad as it is, is on a par with other good batting orders. But I already thought the hitting was pretty good. The Sox are 2d in MLB in runs scored.

 

My concern now is with the pitching. The rotation and bullpen are both struggling. Last year we didn't have Price and did have other issues, but the team ERA was still 4th best in MLB. Early this season with Johnson and Velazquez in the rotation, the team ERA was under 3 and 2d best in MLB.

 

Right now with Sale, Price, Porcello, Pom, and ERod all healthy and the bullpen fairly healthy, the ERA is 9th best in MLB. Whatever our guys are throwing, other teams seem to like it.

[mvp 78]

Those who don’t remember May are doomed to repeat it.

[cp176]

I keep hearing people crying about our 2-3 black holes in our line-up (Vaz/Leon and JBJ, and maybe Nunez).

 

Let's look at some other top teams and their worst 3 hitters. (BTW, ourtop 6 guys in tonight's line-up ended the game with an OPS over .785. Betts went 2 for 4 and saw his OPS drop!

 

Out of top 9 players by PAs:

 

NYY

.646 Gardner (3rd in PAs)

.557 Walker (7th)

.684 Hicks (8th)

 

HOU

.615 Gonzalez (5th)

.692 Gurriel (7th)

.620 Gattis (8th)

(.434 Marisnick 10th)

 

(Why do we suck, but these guys are great?)

 

Here's us...

 

.613 Nunez (6th) Pedey on the way back

.520 JBJ (7th) PAs being restricted as we speak

.435 Vaz (8th)

Bogey is 9th in PAs but won't end up there.

Moreland and Holt are 10th and 11th.

 

Leon is 12th in team PAs and it's like he's the reason we are playing .500 ball recently! I can't help but chuckle sometimes.

 

 

 

I'm certainly not crying over the fact that we seem to have a couple of guys who just aren't playing at an overall major league level but that shouldn't mean that because another team has similar problems that we can just look past the ones that we have. I would prefer that we always look for ways to improve our team. It is a team that still has a lot of talent but some of these guys that are struggling I think need to start playing better. For me, it isn't about what anybody else has - it is all about what we have.

[Bellhorn04]

I do understand the somewhat philosophical point that August and October are more memorable than May, but May is where we are right now. It is a fact that we had a big lead over the Yankees and are now 1/2 game back of them.

 

Yes, but we're 29-14, a winning % of .674.

 

The 3 Red Sox teams that won the World Series in our lifetimes had average winning %s of about .600.

 

We can't control what the Yanks are doing. They're a really good team and they had a hellacious hot streak just like we did before that.

[oldtimer]

I keep hearing people crying about our 2-3 black holes in our line-up (Vaz/Leon and JBJ, and maybe Nunez).

 

Let's look at some other top teams and their worst 3 hitters. (BTW, ourtop 6 guys in tonight's line-up ended the game with an OPS over .785. Betts went 2 for 4 and saw his OPS drop!

 

Out of top 9 players by PAs:

 

NYY

.646 Gardner (3rd in PAs)

.557 Walker (7th)

.684 Hicks (8th)

 

HOU

.615 Gonzalez (5th)

.692 Gurriel (7th)

.620 Gattis (8th)

(.434 Marisnick 10th)

 

(Why do we suck, but these guys are great?)

 

Here's us...

 

.613 Nunez (6th) Pedey on the way back

.520 JBJ (7th) PAs being restricted as we speak

.435 Vaz (8th)

Bogey is 9th in PAs but won't end up there.

Moreland and Holt are 10th and 11th.

 

Leon is 12th in team PAs and it's like he's the reason we are playing .500 ball recently! I can't help but chuckle sometimes.

 

 

 

I expect more from Nunez/Pedey slot in the lineup. JBJ just may not get the PA's going forward, but it begs the question, "Why have him on the roster if he doesn't get PA's? Our catching situation is pretty bleak but finding another solid catcher who can also hit is probably not happening.

[Bellhorn04]

I expect more from Nunez/Pedey slot in the lineup. JBJ just may not get the PA's going forward, but it begs the question, "Why have him on the roster if he doesn't get PA's? Our catching situation is pretty bleak but finding another solid catcher who can also hit is probably not happening.

 

Finding good defensive catchers who can also hit is extremely difficult because they're extremely rare.

[moonslav59]

I'm certainly not crying over the fact that we seem to have a couple of guys who just aren't playing at an overall major league level but that shouldn't mean that because another team has similar problems that we can just look past the ones that we have. I would prefer that we always look for ways to improve our team. It is a team that still has a lot of talent but some of these guys that are struggling I think need to start playing better. For me, it isn't about what anybody else has - it is all about what we have.

 

This wasn't directed at you. My point was aimed at those who seem to feel we have no chance at winning, because we have black holes in our line-up. If that were true, then the Astros and yanks have no chance either, and nobody wins the AL championship.

 

I do agree on trying to address our team's biggest weakness(es) as the best way to improve our chances of winning this fall.

 

It looks like we have addressed JBJ's issue, at least for a while. Although our defense may now need tweaking, benching JBJ and watching Moreland hit over .950 solves that one "black hole".

 

Pedey's return should fix the offense issue at 2B.

 

That leaves us with just one "black hole" in out line-up: the catching position.

 

I, for one, do not expect Vaz and Leon to stay sub .500 all season, but if it appears like they will, I would not be against us looking to improve there. I just don't think the sample size is large enough to look at major changes there at this point in the season.

[moonslav59]

My concern now is with the pitching. The rotation and bullpen are both struggling. Last year we didn't have Price and did have other issues, but the team ERA was still 4th best in MLB. Early this season with Johnson and Velazquez in the rotation, the team ERA was under 3 and 2d best in MLB. -Max

 

I'm not seeing the same staff decline you are, and the numbers seem to support my viewpoint.

 

.682 Season OPS against

.703 Last 14 days OPS against

 

1.192 WHIP season

1.185 WHIP last 14 days

 

Over the last 14 days, only Porcello, Kimbrel and Hembree have an OPS against above .800. 4 of our top 7 IP pitchers have a 14 day OPS against below .680 (Sale, ERod, Kelly & Barnes).

 

Plus, maybe we should have expected our staff to start letting up more runs once we benched JBJ.

 

We've let up 48 runs in out last 12 games.

 

We let up 40 in our first 12 games. While that's a significant difference, I'm hopeful Pom & ERod are rounding into shape after recovering from injuries. Price is a wild card. Porcello's last 2 games have not been very good, but I'm not all that concerned about him.

 

Smith's injury could hurt us, but maybe Thornburg steps in for him.

 

Edited May 17, 2018 by moonslav59

[cp176]

This wasn't directed at you. My point was aimed at those who seem to feel we have no chance at winning, because we have black holes in our line-up. If that were true, then the Astros and yanks have no chance either, and nobody wins the AL championship.

 

I do agree on trying to address our team's biggest weakness(es) as the best way to improve our chances of winning this fall.

 

It looks like we have addressed JBJ's issue, at least for a while. Although our defense may now need tweaking, benching JBJ and watching Moreland hit over .950 solves that one "black hole".

 

Pedey's return should fix the offense issue at 2B.

 

That leaves us with just one "black hole" in out line-up: the catching position.

 

I, for one, do not expect Vaz and Leon to stay sub .500 all season, but if it appears like they will, I would not be against us looking to improve there. I just don't think the sample size is large enough to look at major changes there at this point in the season.

 

i know that your comment wasn't directed at me. Thanks for that though. A healthy Pedroia coming back is certainly going to help and I don't know what to think about our catchers. I am also concerned about our outfield going forward. I don't want to see JD out there on an everyday basis. 1/3 of the time would work for me. It is a shame that JBJ has gotten off to this type of start. I'd be curious to know what the current thinking is. He is sitting - I wonder for how long. With respect to the "sample sizes", I have to say that IMO neither Leon nor Vazquez has ever produced to the level that I have felt confident that they would ever really be able to hit big league pitching.

[notin]

Why is it so hard for a select few to recognize this Team is not Championship caliber?

I see this this exact comment all the time.

 

What exactly is the definition of a "Championship caliber team?

[moonslav59]

i know that your comment wasn't directed at me. Thanks for that though. A healthy Pedroia coming back is certainly going to help and I don't know what to think about our catchers. I am also concerned about our outfield going forward. I don't want to see JD out there on an everyday basis. 1/3 of the time would work for me. It is a shame that JBJ has gotten off to this type of start. I'd be curious to know what the current thinking is. He is sitting - I wonder for how long. With respect to the "sample sizes", I have to say that IMO neither Leon nor Vazquez has ever produced to the level that I have felt confident that they would ever really be able to hit big league pitching.

 

If both catchers just hit their career numbers, I'd be happy due to their defense.

 

.634 Vaz

 

.655 Leon

 

This .448 team catcher OPS is not even close to their norm. It would be like Betts hitting .600 to .700.

[mvp 78]

My concern now is with the pitching. The rotation and bullpen are both struggling. Last year we didn't have Price and did have other issues, but the team ERA was still 4th best in MLB. Early this season with Johnson and Velazquez in the rotation, the team ERA was under 3 and 2d best in MLB. -Max

 

I'm not seeing the same staff decline you are, and the numbers seem to support my viewpoint.

 

.682 Season OPS against

.703 Last 14 days OPS against

 

1.192 WHIP season

1.185 WHIP last 14 days

 

Over the last 14 days, only Porcello, Kimbrel and Hembree have an OPS against above .800. 4 of our top 7 IP pitchers have a 14 day OPS against below .680 (Sale, ERod, Kelly & Barnes).

 

Plus, maybe we should have expected our staff to start letting up more runs once we benched JBJ.

 

We've let up 48 runs in out last 12 games.

 

We let up 40 in our first 12 games. While that's a significant difference, I'm hopeful Pom & ERod are rounding into shape after recovering from injuries. Price is a wild card. Porcello's last 2 games have not been very good, but I'm not all that concerned about him.

 

Smith's injury could hurt us, but maybe Thornburg steps in for him.

 

 

I'm not sure the runs are due to JBJ sitting. How many extra balls would he have gotten to? 2? 3 at best? I don't it's even that many.

[mvp 78]

i know that your comment wasn't directed at me. Thanks for that though. A healthy Pedroia coming back is certainly going to help and I don't know what to think about our catchers. I am also concerned about our outfield going forward. I don't want to see JD out there on an everyday basis. 1/3 of the time would work for me. It is a shame that JBJ has gotten off to this type of start. I'd be curious to know what the current thinking is. He is sitting - I wonder for how long. With respect to the "sample sizes", I have to say that IMO neither Leon nor Vazquez has ever produced to the level that I have felt confident that they would ever really be able to hit big league pitching.

 

Did 2013 look like a championship team on May 17th? I don't remember people thinking that way.

[S5Dewey]

I'm not sure the runs are due to JBJ sitting. How many extra balls would he have gotten to? 2? 3 at best? I don't it's even that many.

 

I saw two hits (a double and a single) in one game that I'm confident JBJ would have gotten to, and one of them resulted in a run being scored. I wouldn't attribute all of the increase in Runs Allowed to JBJ's not being in the OF but it's a contributing factor.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm not sure the runs are due to JBJ sitting. How many extra balls would he have gotten to? 2? 3 at best? I don't it's even that many.

 

Boy, do I agree with you and have to wonder what moonslav is thinking. If he's right, opposing managers preparing their teams for the next game against us would be saying something like this: "Guys, I know Sale is on the mound, but, without JBJ in CF, we will have no problem scoring runs. Just don't hit the ball to right field, and Benintendi or JD Martinez will let it drop in or go over their heads or whatever. This is a real break for us, and we need to capitalize."

[cp176]

Did 2013 look like a championship team on May 17th? I don't remember people thinking that way.

 

 

MVP - seriously- You think that there is any chance that I can remember anything that happened that long ago???

 

Now seriously I didn't think that the 2013 champions looked like champion quality in May of 2013 but all due respect here to our champs I'm not sure I felt any differently even after they were holding the trophy.

[Bellhorn04]

Now seriously I didn't think that the 2013 champions looked like champion quality in May of 2013 but all due respect here to our champs I'm not sure I felt any differently even after they were holding the trophy.

 

But why? That team won 97 games and then went 11-5 in the playoffs. They never lost more than 3 games in a row all season.

[Slasher9]

Boy, do I agree with you and have to wonder what moonslav is thinking. If he's right, opposing managers preparing their teams for the next game against us would be saying something like this: "Guys, I know Sale is on the mound, but, without JBJ in CF, we will have no problem scoring runs. Just don't hit the ball to right field, and Benintendi or JD Martinez will let it drop in or go over their heads or whatever. This is a real break for us, and we need to capitalize."

 

I don't know about you but I saw Chris Sale nibbling a hell of a lot more in yesterdays start without having JBj over his left shoulder. in fact he nibble so much he was barely able to get through 5 ip. thankfully our "good" bullpen showed up last night. hey, but if your happy with Chris Sale nibbling and only going 5 innings then...yeah...I guess your right....what is moon thinking.....

[mvp 78]

I don't know about you but I saw Chris Sale nibbling a hell of a lot more in yesterdays start without having JBj over his left shoulder. in fact he nibble so much he was barely able to get through 5 ip. thankfully our "good" bullpen showed up last night. hey, but if your happy with Chris Sale nibbling and only going 5 innings then...yeah...I guess your right....what is moon thinking.....

 

I don't see how you can attribute that solely to JBJ being on the bench.

[S5Dewey]

I don't see how you can attribute that solely to JBJ being on the bench.

 

So are you admitting that it's partially responsible?

[mvp 78]

So are you admitting that it's partially responsible?

 

Nope. I don't believe it matters in the least.

[S5Dewey]

Nope. I don't believe it matters in the least.

 

Then we'll disagree.

[cp176]

But why? That team won 97 games and then went 11-5 in the playoffs. They never lost more than 3 games in a row all season.

 

Got no answer for you. I loved that team too. Guess I just can't be taken seriously!

[Slasher9]

I don't see how you can attribute that solely to JBJ being on the bench.

 

just my belief..just my theory. we all did some pitching, or currently work with pitchers. the mental aspect of painting is yuuuuuge. 1 less thing behind you to worry about is big. IMO.

similar reason why some pitchers have completely different numbers when pitching to catcher x then catcher y.

[illinoisredsox]

I don't know about you but I saw Chris Sale nibbling a hell of a lot more in yesterdays start without having JBj over his left shoulder. in fact he nibble so much he was barely able to get through 5 ip. thankfully our "good" bullpen showed up last night. hey, but if your happy with Chris Sale nibbling and only going 5 innings then...yeah...I guess your right....what is moon thinking.....

 

So are you admitting that it's partially responsible?

 

Then we'll disagree.

 

just my belief..just my theory. we all did some pitching, or currently work with pitchers. the mental aspect of painting is yuuuuuge. 1 less thing behind you to worry about is big. IMO.

similar reason why some pitchers have completely different numbers when pitching to catcher x then catcher y.

 

 

JBJ didn't play last Friday in Toronto; Sale went 9, struck out 15 and walked no one. Was he nibbling that night as well?

 

I think he just didn't have his good stuff last night; no pitcher has it every game.