A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

You left out advancing the runners with 1 or 0 outs. Bradley is also lousy at that. Plus don't forget that his WAR is currently -.4.

 

To me the best case for JBJ is dead simple. Cora wants him out there, and I trust Cora.

 

Are you forgetting he's one of our best base runners... the few times he gets on base?

 

Base Running index 2017-2018

 

9.5 Betts

8.7 Bogey

5.8 JBJ

2.4 Beni

-3.0 Moreland

-5.0 HRam

 

 

[Spudboy]

Thing is, you move JBJ to a reserve Of role and he cannot recover. You permanently damage his value. You have to ride him through the end of June. If he continues to suck, then you make a move before the deadline. If he creeps back to like and has one of his 1.1 OPS months like he seems to do when the weather gets hot, then you ride with him.

 

I agree.

 

Troll.

[Kimmi]

Just thought I'd bring this up again now that the Yankees have taken 3 of 4 in Houston and the Sox look absolutely abysmal vs. the Rangers. That freight behind us is just 1 game back.

 

You give the Yankees too much credit. Everything that is being written and said about them is exactly the same thing that was written about the Sox a couple of weeks ago, when the Yankees were floundering at .500. Now the roles have reversed, for the time being.

 

The Yankees are not going to maintain their 12-1 pace no more than we were able to maintain ours.

 

They are a good team but don't let them scare you. So are the Sox.

[Kimmi]

Offense is more fun to watch and more easily understandable.

 

Defense, especially in this "post-Fielding percentage and errors" era, is much tougher to quantify and harder to relate directly to wins.

 

That doesn't mean defense is less important.

 

If anything, the new defensive metrics should convince some of those who think defense isn't as important as offense to think otherwise. Personally, I find watching great defense a lot more enjoyable than watching offense. I've said it before and I'll say it again, chicks do not dig the long ball.

[Kimmi]

Devers is 3d on the team in total bases and 4th in rbi's. His overall WAR, .3, ain't much, but Nunez's is -.5. I do not understand the enmity directed toward Devers and the free ride accorded Nunez, who I might add has 9 more years professional experience than Devers.

 

To me Devers at 3b is a good investment for the future who is contributing now and will only get better. Do I need to remind this board of other recent Sox thirdbasemen? Mike Lowell was pretty good back in 2007-9. Later came Middlebrooks and the great Pablo Sandoval.

 

I heard on one of the telecasts that the great Adrian Beltre committed a lot of errors in his first couple of years in the majors. (Not that I'm at all a fan of the 'error' stat, but trying to make the point that Devers is indeed very young and he should improve.)

 

I looked it up. Beltre made 13 errors in his first 513 innings, then 29 errors in his first full season.

 

Devers made 14 errors in his first 507 innings, and he's on pace for 34 errors this season if he matches Beltre's innings played.

 

I think we have a future Gold Glover on our hands!

[Kimmi]

I like great defensive plays too, but here's a reality check: JBJ as of now is a minus player. His bad offense is outweighing his good defense.

 

One 'advantage' of the offensive side, you might say, is that you are guaranteed to get multiple opportunities to contribute every single game you start. On the defensive side, you are not guaranteed anything as far as non-routine plays in which you have a chance to really affect the outcome.

 

JBJ has been killed by BABIP in the last couple of weeks.

 

Doesn't really have anything to do with your point, I just wanted to throw that out there.

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ is a better hitter than his numbers so far. He'll never be a great hitter but he can contribute over the course of the season. I would never seriously consider benching him.

[Maxbialystock]

You give the Yankees too much credit. Everything that is being written and said about them is exactly the same thing that was written about the Sox a couple of weeks ago, when the Yankees were floundering at .500. Now the roles have reversed, for the time being.

 

The Yankees are not going to maintain their 12-1 pace no more than we were able to maintain ours.

 

They are a good team but don't let them scare you. So are the Sox.

 

Even when the Sox ran out to a 17-2 record, plenty of commentators were still picking the Yankees to win the AL East.

 

Yes, the Sox have been a good team, but only because the pitching was exceptional. Now the hitting is there, but the pitching had faltered in the last 12 games before tonight. The ERA basically doubled the ERA in the first 19 games.

 

The Yankees now appear to have good pitching to go with their best in MLB hitting (Sox are 2d.) There are supposedly four good AL teams this year: us, Yankees, Guardians, and Astros. The Yankees just took 3 of 4 from Houston and their first game against the Guardians.

 

I hate having this argument because I sure as heck ain't rooting for the Yankees. I've been a Sox fan longer than you, and that basically means that I've learned it is never too early to start worrying. Funny thing is, I do like this Sox team. The bottom of the order stinks. The infield defense overall is probably below average. But this team can hit--boy can they hit--and the rotation has been better than I expected except for Price. Heck, I think our 6th starter Velazquez is better than Pom, heretical as that sounds. Plus, and this is corny, I think these guys have heart, and that's what it takes to beat the dam Yankees.

Edited May 5, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

JBJ is a better hitter than his numbers so far. He'll never be a great hitter but he can contribute over the course of the season. I would never seriously consider benching him.

 

Me, too.

 

I'd go long past June 1st to even think about benching him.

 

[Larry Cook]

Me, too.

 

I'd go long past June 1st to even think about benching him.

 

 

Having a guy like Bradley in center field, gives our pitchers the confidence to make pitches they normally would not because they know Bradley will run down mistakes.

[Maxbialystock]

Me, too.

 

I'd go long past June 1st to even think about benching him.

 

 

JBJ was our starting centerfielder in 127 games in 2014 but he ended up in Pawtucket because his OPS was .531. Today it's .545.

 

What keeps JBJ on the field is the top 5 or 6 in the Sox lineup. The Yankees have a new murderers row this year and lead MLB in runs scored with 185, but the Sox are second with 180 and our current top 6--Betts, Beni, Ramirez, JD, Bogaerts, and Devers--are better than theirs. The Yankees bottom third of the lineup is way better than ours.

 

The 2014 team could not afford to keep JBJ in the lineup, but this team can. And it isn't just JBJ, it's also our two catchers and Nunez/Lin/Holt.

 

When Moreland with is OPS of .984 plays 1b, JD goes to LF, HanRam to DH, and Beni replaces JBJ, the lineup gets even better because Devers drops to 7th. But so far Cora hasn't done that very often because the lineup has been so productive despite that bottom third whose best bat currently is Nunez with an OPS of .646. His DWAR, it should be noted, is -.4.

 

Back to JBJ. I do agree with you that it makes sense to give JBJ more time to get his swing back to something near 2016 when his OPS was .865, Ortiz was anchoring the lineup, and a bunch of guys had good years they didn't have last year, 2017.

 

You in fact predicted the lineup would bounce back this year and not just because of JD, and you were right. So there is hope for JBJ.

Edited May 5, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I was thinking about the Bradley discussion last night as I saw him take a double away in the gap to left center. That was a very very good play but again major league center fielders are all tremendous, most of them make that play too. I just don't see any way JBJ makes more than one play a week, if that, that other ML CFs are not making. And there is no way he is making up for all his bad at bats at that rate.

 

As for his position in the lineup not hurting the team as badly let's not forget that he is hitting 2 spots ahead of our most productive hitter. So yeah more hits would have meant even more RBI opportunities for Mookie.

[jad]

That was Dick Stuart:D

 

The image that is burned in my memory is the look Frank Malzone used to give over his shoulder when one went through his legs--a look that he had many many opportunities to practice. He was a gold glove 3b, whose errors were attributed to his ability to get to balls that other third basemen couldn't touch. (He also had difficulty with balls hit directly at him, which is not all that rare a weakness!)

[Bellhorn04]

I was thinking about the Bradley discussion last night as I saw him take a double away in the gap to left center. That was a very very good play but again major league center fielders are all tremendous' date=' most of them make that play too. I just don't see any way JBJ makes more than one play a week, if that, that other ML CFs are not making. And there is no way he is making up for all his bad at bats at that rate.[/quote']

 

For what it's worth Bradley finished 5th in the Fielding Bible voting for 2017.

 

The other thing is, it doesn't do us much good that there are numerous other good center fielders. We don't have anyone else that is nearly that good, other than Betts.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

For what it's worth Bradley finished 5th in the Fielding Bible voting for 2017.

 

The other thing is, it doesn't do us much good that there are numerous other good center fielders. We don't have anyone else that is nearly that good, other than Betts.

 

Oh I totally understand how good he is defensively. But not having a suitable replacement does not mean he is above criticism. When you put his total game up against every other starting CF in baseball he is way down the list. I'm just getting so tired of watching a game where they are losing and up comes the bottom of the order. I just wait for the next inning and hope for better results because the last few batters are absolutely killing this team.

Edited May 5, 2018 by Yaz Fan Since '67

[jacksonianmarch]

JBJ was our starting centerfielder in 127 games in 2014 but he ended up in Pawtucket because his OPS was .531. Today it's .545.

 

What keeps JBJ on the field is the top 5 or 6 in the Sox lineup. The Yankees have a new murderers row this year and lead MLB in runs scored with 185, but the Sox are second with 180 and our current top 6--Betts, Beni, Ramirez, JD, Bogaerts, and Devers--are better than theirs. The Yankees bottom third of the lineup is way better than ours.

 

The 2014 team could not afford to keep JBJ in the lineup, but this team can. And it isn't just JBJ, it's also our two catchers and Nunez/Lin/Holt.

 

When Moreland with is OPS of .984 plays 1b, JD goes to LF, HanRam to DH, and Beni replaces JBJ, the lineup gets even better because Devers drops to 7th. But so far Cora hasn't done that very often because the lineup has been so productive despite that bottom third whose best bat currently is Nunez with an OPS of .646. His DWAR, it should be noted, is -.4.

 

Back to JBJ. I do agree with you that it makes sense to give JBJ more time to get his swing back to something near 2016 when his OPS was .865, Ortiz was anchoring the lineup, and a bunch of guys had good years they didn't have last year, 2017.

 

You in fact predicted the lineup would bounce back this year and not just because of JD, and you were right. So there is hope for JBJ.

 

Your current top 6 is better than ours..... though May 4th. By the end of the year, the advantage will be significantly in our corner, I promise you that. Gardner has a sub .200 BA with Stanton and Sanchez having sub .800 OPS’s. That’ll change.

[Kimmi]

Even when the Sox ran out to a 17-2 record, plenty of commentators were still picking the Yankees to win the AL East.

 

Yes, the Sox have been a good team, but only because the pitching was exceptional. Now the hitting is there, but the pitching had faltered in the last 12 games before tonight. The ERA basically doubled the ERA in the first 19 games.

 

The Yankees now appear to have good pitching to go with their best in MLB hitting (Sox are 2d.) There are supposedly four good AL teams this year: us, Yankees, Guardians, and Astros. The Yankees just took 3 of 4 from Houston and their first game against the Guardians.

 

I hate having this argument because I sure as heck ain't rooting for the Yankees. I've been a Sox fan longer than you, and that basically means that I've learned it is never too early to start worrying. Funny thing is, I do like this Sox team. The bottom of the order stinks. The infield defense overall is probably below average. But this team can hit--boy can they hit--and the rotation has been better than I expected except for Price. Heck, I think our 6th starter Velazquez is better than Pom, heretical as that sounds. Plus, and this is corny, I think these guys have heart, and that's what it takes to beat the dam Yankees.

 

I haven't been a fan as long as many of you, but I know enough that I never count the Yankees out. I am not trying to say that we will win the division. I'm just saying that we are too good of a team for us to be worried that the Yankees are right on our heels. I don't think anyone expected the Sox to run away with the division, and I hope that no one expects the Yankees to run away with it either. It will be a good race to the finish. Don't count our beloved Red Sox out.

 

As MVP likes to say, Back to Back to Back.

[Kimmi]

Having a guy like Bradley in center field, gives our pitchers the confidence to make pitches they normally would not because they know Bradley will run down mistakes.

 

^^ This.

 

And I feel exactly the same way about having Vaz and Leon behind the plate.

[Nick]

As a coach, you always look for your team's ceiling. Good news is that Sox can get better.

 

1 Pom can hit his stride after a slow start as he did last year.

2 Both Price and Sale have some work to do.

3 E Rod has chance to finally come into his own this year for sustained period

4 Carson Smith is still on his recovery phase

5 At some point, we should see Thornburg.

6 I'm impressed with Poyner (sp?)

7 Pedey will eventually come off the disable list. He'll give us better defense. If healthy, he'll hit.

8 Devers will be smarter with pitch recognition and hit better.

9 JD will continue to improve his power production as weather gets warmer.

10 Xandder and Betts simply need to stay on the field.

 

Jacksonianmarch can talk all he wants about not all Yankees hitting their stride, same can be said of Sox.

[Maxbialystock]

Your current top 6 is better than ours..... though May 4th. By the end of the year, the advantage will be significantly in our corner, I promise you that. Gardner has a sub .200 BA with Stanton and Sanchez having sub .800 OPS’s. That’ll change.

 

Promises, promises.

[jacksonianmarch]

We have two MVP type players who are hitting poorly. We are missing our first baseman and the guy who’s filled in well (Austin) is hurt. Our leadoff hitter is hitting under .200 with a sub.600 OPS. Hicks isn’t hitting. Walker’s OPS has been under .500. The only guy who’s hitting above expectations is Didi. In terms of he kids, we don’t have a track record, so there are no expectations

[Maxbialystock]

I haven't been a fan as long as many of you, but I know enough that I never count the Yankees out. I am not trying to say that we will win the division. I'm just saying that we are too good of a team for us to be worried that the Yankees are right on our heels. I don't think anyone expected the Sox to run away with the division, and I hope that no one expects the Yankees to run away with it either. It will be a good race to the finish. Don't count our beloved Red Sox out.

 

As MVP likes to say, Back to Back to Back.

 

If the pitching holds up, the Sox are on par with the Yankees. The opening 17-2 streak was mostly because of the pitching. Price is a big concern, but Pom and ERod have also had their issues. What's neat is that both Sale and Porcello have been pretty solid, and Velazquez has to be the best 6th starter in MLB. I do give the Yankees the edge in the bullpen.

Edited May 5, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[Kimmi]

We have two MVP type players who are hitting poorly. We are missing our first baseman and the guy who’s filled in well (Austin) is hurt. Our leadoff hitter is hitting under .200 with a sub.600 OPS. Hicks isn’t hitting. Walker’s OPS has been under .500. The only guy who’s hitting above expectations is Didi. In terms of he kids, we don’t have a track record, so there are no expectations

 

Here's the thing. You may have some players who have not hit their stride and will hit better. Even if that's the case, you will not play better as a team than your current streak, or even maintain close to your current streak. So while Sanchez and Stanton might heat up, the Yankees as a whole will cool off.

 

I promise you that.

[Kimmi]

If the pitching holds up, the Sox are on par with the Yankees. The opening 17-2 streak was mostly because of the pitching. Price is a big concern, but Pom and ERod have also had their issues. What's neat is that both Sale and Porcello have been pretty solid, and Velazquez has to be the best 6th starter in MLB. I do give the Yankees the edge in the bullpen.

 

I don't even know if I'd give them the edge in the BP.

 

If we stay healthy and perform to reasonable expectations, we're every bit as good as them.

 

And just wait until CC and his 4.21 SIERA and .211 BABIP comes back to earth.

[oldtimer]

^^ This.

 

And I feel exactly the same way about having Vaz and Leon behind the plate.

 

I would prefer a solid defender in CF who also could hit. I can dream. Say what you will, JBJ is gone after this year if his hitting miseries continue. Hard for a guy with the time and experience he has to suddenly become a hitter. He had his moments, if he could only remember what he did in his hot steaks.

[moonslav59]

I would prefer a solid defender in CF who also could hit. I can dream. Say what you will, JBJ is gone after this year if his hitting miseries continue. Hard for a guy with the time and experience he has to suddenly become a hitter. He had his moments, if he could only remember what he did in his hot steaks.

 

Yes, JBJ's hot streaks have carried his OPS in a few seasons moree than other players' hot streaks do theirs, but the guy had a pretty long stretch of being over .800. I guess I take issue with the comment about him having to "suddenly become a hitter," when he already has been one for extended times, streaks not with standing. For most players, if you took away their best 3 streaks over their last 3 seasons, their numbers would suffer greatlly. Certainly, JBJ's more than others, but my point is that most players rely on a few hot streaks to bring their numbers up to normalcy or greatness.

 

Here are JBJ's recent monthly OPS numbers. I know they can be a bit deceiving as some hot streaks overlapped 2 months and made both look good, but here they are:

 

1.163 Aug '15

.604 SEP '15

 

.807 APR '16

1.175 May '16

.805 June '16

.839 July '16 (4 in a row and 5 of 6 at .800+)

.651 AUG '16

.731 SEP '16 (not that bad)

 

.596 APR '17 (his first truly horrible month in 9 months)

.808 May '17

1.009 June '17 (at this point, 7 of 11 months over .800 and 2 of the 4 below .800 being over .650)

.596 July

.770 AUG (decent)

.517 SEP

 

.600 APR '18

 

3 of his last 4 months have been putrid. No doubt, this is very concerning, but let's not pretend that JBJ has not shown he can hit for long stretches despite those stretches being largely carried just a few isolated and all-too-short hot streaks.

 

I still have faith he can find that stride again and get his offense back to respectability, and perhaps even more.

 

Certainly, I worry about him being sub .600 for 3 of his last 4 months, but to me, he deserves a much longer look that it appears some hear might not be willing to give him.

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I wonder if the Red Sox should dip into their SP depth, trade a guy like Pomeranz who isn't going to be here next year anyway, and look to improve the 3b defense. They would then move Devers to DH, giving him some work at 1b. They have the depth in the starting rotation to replace Pomeranz.

 

Maybe Mike Moustakas? That would involve a 3 team trade: Pomeranz going to team X, in turn, team X trades prospects to Royals and Moustakas goes to Boston. Manny Machado would be even better, but the price (in terms of prospects) would probably too high for Boston. Then again, if you move Devers to DH, you are forced to play Martinez in LF, and thus you weaken LF defense. But since Benintendi and Bradley aren't hitting right now, you would improve the offense by adding Moustakas and subtracting Benintendi/Bradley.

Edited May 5, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

As a coach, you always look for your team's ceiling. Good news is that Sox can get better.

 

1 Pom can hit his stride after a slow start as he did last year.

2 Both Price and Sale have some work to do.

3 E Rod has chance to finally come into his own this year for sustained period

4 Carson Smith is still on his recovery phase

5 At some point, we should see Thornburg.

6 I'm impressed with Poyner (sp?)

7 Pedey will eventually come off the disable list. He'll give us better defense. If healthy, he'll hit.

8 Devers will be smarter with pitch recognition and hit better.

9 JD will continue to improve his power production as weather gets warmer.

10 Xandder and Betts simply need to stay on the field.

 

Jacksonianmarch can talk all he wants about not all Yankees hitting their stride, same can be said of Sox.

 

Benintendi too, he has been a disappointment so far. You expect this kind of crap from Bradley--he has always been a streaky hitter with the chance to have a terrible year, but we were hoping for big things from Benintendi and he has disappointed through 1/6 of the season.

[moonslav59]

I wonder if the Red Sox should dip into their SP depth, trade a guy like Pomeranz who isn't going to be here next year anyway, and look to improve the 3b defense. They would then move Devers to DH, giving him some work at 1b. They have the depth in the starting rotation to replace Pomeranz.

 

Maybe Mike Moustakas? That would involve a 3 team trade: prospects going to team X, in turn, team X trades prospects to Royals and Moustakas goes to Boston. Manny Machado would be even better, but the price (in terms of prospects) would probably too high for Boston. Then again, if you move Devers to DH, you are forced to play Martinez in LF, and thus you weaken LF defense. But since Benintendi and Bradley aren't hitting right now, you would improve the offense by adding Moustakas and subtracting Benintendi/Bradley.

 

Right now, we could play Moreland over JBJ and improve the offense (and defense at 1B)- not my idea of a good move.

 

If we do plan on upgrading at 3B, we'd trade JBJ.

 

One wonders what we could get for Pom & JBJ. With those prospects plus maybe a couple more from our farm, maybe we could get something very special, but who?

 

I would not do this for a half season wonder like Machado.

 

[moonslav59]

Benintendi too, he has been a disappointment so far. You expect this kind of crap from Bradley--he has always been a streaky hitter with the chance to have a terrible year, but we were hoping for big things from Benintendi and he has disappointed through 1/6 of the season.

 

He's still making base running blunders as well. One could somewhat overlook those last year, but not with a .712 hitter.