A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[notin]

I'm starting to think merely questioning whether they can break all-time records is undervaluing this team. It feels like all the other teams are Little Leaguers.

 

There will be slumps and slow stretches. Making them worthy of being among the greatest teams of all time might be a bit premature.

 

But I think I can say I haven't seen any team start like this since 1984...

[mvp 78]

It was a great move. Martinez seems like a nice, quiet guy who is all about his craft as a hitter. A beautiful piece to the puzzle indeed.

 

But he didn't sign early enough in the offseason! He's demanding to play OF! He is with Boras! Bad guy!

[cp176]

We don't need to trade anyone right now. We can deal with the options easily and have strength on the bench and depth in AAA.

 

It's a perfect situation. Changing that right now would be stupid.

 

I think Bogaerts will and should be back in the lineup as soon as he is ready as for the rest why change anything. I think that they will find a way to handle all of the comings and goings. Don't fix what ain't broke right?

[cp176]

But he didn't sign early enough in the offseason! He's demanding to play OF! He is with Boras! Bad guy!

 

We really didn't need his bat either. Could have brought in another pitcher. lol Couldn't help it.

[moonslav59]

I know this. Some big ifs with some of these guys coming back though. I'm missing something about Hembree I think. Lots of people have been critical of him. I like him. We don't know what the current thinking is with respect to these guys coming back from various injuries. Time will tell.

 

I've always liked Hembree and hope we can keep him. That hope might depend on Thornburg staying on the DL, or someone else going on the DL.

 

Yes, time will tell. There's no rush to trade anybody, until a major squeeze is near. Here's how I rank our pitchers, when healthy, by 2018 value assuming full health:

 

Out of options in RED

 

1. Sale

2. Price

3. Porcello

4. Kimbrel

5. Pomeranz

6. Rodriguez

7. Smith

8. Thornburg

9. Barnes

10. Kelly

11. Wright

12. Hembree

13. Johnson

14. Velazquez

15. Poyner

16. Workman

17. Walden

18. Scott

19. Maddox

20. Elias/Beeks/Haley/Buttrey

 

Since #11, 12 & 13 are out of options, one could get squeezed. It seems like #1-10 will not be sent to AAA to allow an out of options player to stay on the roster.

 

Again, I doubt all of our top 13-15 pitchers will all be healthy at the same time, but it could happen for a short stretch.

 

 

Edited April 20, 2018 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Should we move Devers to 1b before or after he wins a GG at 3b?

[moonslav59]

On the non-pitching side of the roster, assuming we keep 12 pitchers on the 25 man roster, here's how a rank the 2018 value of our current p-layers, assuming 100% health:

 

Out of options in RED

 

1. Betts

2. JMart

3. Devers

4. Bogey

5. Beni

6. Ramirez

7. Bradley

8. Pedroia

9. Vazquez

10. Nunez

11. Moreland

12. Leon

13. Swihart

14. Hernandez

15. Lin

16. Holt

17. Travis

 

Again, our #12 and #13 are out of options and our number 10-11 are too important to send to AAA to keep 12 & 13. Something might have to give here as well.

 

I'm happy with the top 13 being "the 13", but Holt seems to be a team favorite, so someone might get traded, so he can stay on the 25.

Edited April 20, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Should we move Devers to 1b before or after he wins a GG at 3b?

 

If it's after, he'll never be moved.

[mvp 78]

I was just looking at Blake's numbers and it's weird to me that he has a negative dWAR. He's made no errors and has gotten to every ball that wasn't "impossible."

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

[moonslav59]

I was just looking at Blake's numbers and it's weird to me that he has a negative dWAR. He's made no errors and has gotten to every ball that wasn't "impossible."

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

He's played 6 innings and has just 2 routine outs. I guess you need to do something better than routine to be a plus.

[mvp 78]

He's played 6 innings and has just 2 routine outs. I guess you need to do something better than routine to be a plus.

 

But it looks like he hasn't had any other opportunities aside from routine?

[moonslav59]

But it looks like he hasn't had any other opportunities aside from routine?

 

Yes. He has just two chances in 6 innings- both routine.

 

What bugs me more is JBJ's -28.8 OF UZR/150.

 

He's got no RF rating despite 15 innings and an impossible catch they called "remote".

 

In 128 innings in CF, they have him down for ...

 

34 routine

1 likely

3 remote

 

Seems like he's made more than 4 non-routine plays in CF this year.

Edited April 20, 2018 by moonslav59

[S5Dewey]

Yes. He has just two chances in 6 innings- both routine.

 

What bugs me more is JBJ's -28.8 OF UZR/150.

 

He's got no RF rating despite 15 innings and an impossible catch they called "remote".

 

In 128 innings in CF, they have him down for ...

 

34 routine

1 likely

3 remote

 

Seems like he's made more than 4 non-routine plays in CF this year.

 

It's got to be true though. After all, those people who rank defense for WAR purposes are "trained observers". They just haven't yet "observed" that he played RF in one game.

 

I would never say WAR is worthless but it needs to be taken in context with other things like..... the eye test.

[Emp9]

Should we move Devers to 1b before or after he wins a GG at 3b?

 

I’m not convinced other teams’ Managers and coaching staffs don’t take errors into account when voting for GGs. Red Sox as a team (assuming multiple sources have updated their stats) have 5. Devers has 4 of those.

[Spudboy]

What if we just kept the guys we have and enjoyed them as much as possible.

 

It has become obvious that you do not understand the complexities of roster management.

 

Leave he heavy lifting to the big boys.

[Spudboy]

4 and 0 in one run games -

16-2 overall really tells the story - great start! great team?

 

It all random, though.

 

Especially the close games!

[S5Dewey]

Wow. Baltimore is 11 1/2 games back this morning and they've still got 141 games left to play.

 

When do they throw in the towel and start shopping Machado?

 

And when do they fire Showalter? :-)

[Slasher9]

This is how you go 16-2. Your lineup has two guys slumping in Vaz and Bradley. You’ve got a couple guys being right at their typical and you’ve got 5 or so guys surging. At the same time, you start 2018 with two starters on the shelf. You had some fortuitous scheduling to allow for your team to weather it and when they pitched, they were lights out. No starter is slumping. Your closer has been ridiculous. You’re surging right now. My only hope as a Yankee fan is that it stops soon.

 

hysterical. there is absolutely nothing true in this post.

troll on....

[Slasher9]

I think Bogaerts will and should be back in the lineup as soon as he is ready as for the rest why change anything. I think that they will find a way to handle all of the comings and goings. Don't fix what ain't broke right?

but some players are out of options. how do you suggest we hold on to them?

[Slasher9]

Should we move Devers to 1b before or after he wins a GG at 3b?

 

probably not the right day to post this as he just had an E.

[illinoisredsox]

probably not the right day to post this as he just had another E.

 

Fixed that for you.

[Bellhorn04]

It has become obvious that you do not understand the complexities of roster management.

 

Leave he heavy lifting to the big boys.

 

A clear early contender for the most viciously sarcastic post of the year.

 

I'm kind of glad I'm on the same side of most of these issues as you...

[cp176]

but some players are out of options. how do you suggest we hold on to them?

 

See that's just it i don't propose how to solve any of these roster problems that we face - I'm glad that they are good problems to have. i'm leaving this up to DD. I've been real pleased with him and his moves so far.

[sk7326]

Wow. Baltimore is 11 1/2 games back this morning and they've still got 141 games left to play.

 

When do they throw in the towel and start shopping Machado?

 

And when do they fire Showalter? :-)

 

Who's to say they are not shopping Machado now. They arguably should have done it in the offseason though. It is too early to win a division, but it is not too early to lose it.

[cp176]

I

It has become obvious that you do not understand the complexities of roster management.

 

Leave he heavy lifting to the big boys.

 

I'm just a slow learner. You know me - old school eye testing fool.

[cp176]

It all random, though.

 

Especially the close games!

 

So it seems. I'm thinking that I wasted most of my adult life doing stuff I didn't need to do. lol (had a lot of fun doing it though - acted like I was important all the way too!)

[a700hitter]

It all random, though.

 

Especially the close games!

We need to enjoy this randomness as certainly there are people living in fear of dreaded regression. Also, if the window/cliff theory is right we really need to relish these moments as the Yankee’s window is arguably on the way. We should all take every opportunity to rub Yankee fan faces in this success, because they will not remember our magnanimity when they are on top.

[moonslav59]

It's got to be true though. After all, those people who rank defense for WAR purposes are "trained observers". They just haven't yet "observed" that he played RF in one game.

 

I would never say WAR is worthless but it needs to be taken in context with other things like..... the eye test.

 

It's not worthless, for sure, but yes, it has flaws.

 

We all know a good or great play when we see it, and certainly the "eye test" is valid, but we don't get to "eye test" everyone else in MLB, so any comparative analysis will be flawed.

[mvp 78]

probably not the right day to post this as he just had an E.

 

1 error = 1 DFA

[mvp 78]

Last year's GG 3b already has 3 errors this year.