A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Emp9]

I’m fine with Wright as our long relief guy\RP #6 or #7. He’s been out for a while now and needs to prove that his earlier success wasn’t a fluke. I’m of the few that still think highly of him (talent-wise). Things could always fall into place for a bigger role for him next season.

[moonslav59]

I’m fine with Wright as our long relief guy\RP #6 or #7. He’s been out for a while now and needs to prove that his earlier success wasn’t a fluke. I’m of the few that still think highly of him (talent-wise). Things could always fall into place for a bigger role for him next season.

 

I've always liked knuckleballers and think they help mess up opponent's timing- not just in the game they pitch but going forward into following games.

 

The incident with his wife has made me question my own views on Steven, but as a pitcher, I think he's one of our best 12 pitchers when everyone is 100% healthy.

[moonslav59]

One site's projections...

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/projections/standings/

 

Projected Sox final record: 100-62

 

Odds of winning championship

 

16.5% Houston

13.6% Boston

13.0% LAD

 

9.1% CLE

8.4% Cubs

 

6.8% AZ

6.4% NYY

 

4.9 STL

3.5 NYM

3.1 LAA

 

1.6% MN & TOR

 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

Indeed.

 

Here's how I see our pen, if fully healthy:

 

(Assuming Pom & Wright are back and healthy as well)

 

Closer- Kimbrel

Set-up- Thornburg

Set-up- C Smith

RP4- Kelly

RP5- Barnes

RP6- Wright (out of options)

RP7- Johnson (out of options)

 

Odd man out: Hembree (out of options)

 

AAA: Velazquez, Poyner, Walden, Maddox, Workman, Scott & Elias

 

Nicely done.

[moonslav59]

What could we get for trading two out-of-options players for one better player?

 

Hembree & Holt for ________?

 

Wright & Hembree for _______?

 

Holt & Wright for ________?

 

All three for __________?

 

I'm not saying we need to weaken our bench, but we will likely have to trade or DFA Hembree or send a worse pitcher to AAA.

[moonslav59]

What if....?

 

1.025 Moreland 1 HR 6 RBI in 36 PAs

 

.790 Hosmer 2 HRs 4 RBI in 81 PAs

 

.739 L Duda 3 HRs 10 RBI in 57 PAs

 

.532 Santana 2 HRs 10 RBI in 75 PAs

 

.271 Morrison 0 Hrs 2 RBI in 50 PAs

[moonslav59]

Team wOBA

.367 BOS

.350 OAK

.344 NYY

.343 LAA

.342 TOR

 

wRC+

130 BOS

124 OAK

121 LAA

117 NYY

115 TOR

 

3 teams from the AL East!

[Kimmi]

I think he's referring to the thread someone started about run differential...I'm pretty sure I saw such a thing, at least.

 

Yup and it was rolled into another post at some point by YOTN.

 

Not in reference to you, Kimmi.

 

Well, our run differential looks a lot better than it did after our first 3 series. We are still one game better than our Pythagorean W-L record because of our 5-0 record in one run games.

 

Interesting to note that we are also 5-0 in blowout games. That's the sign of a good team.

[Kimmi]

I've brought it up a couple of times, especially last year when the Sox were winning despite a relatively low run differential. This was also the case earlier this year only more so. Now the Sox have the best run differential in MLB.

 

Kimmi is the one who said winning close games might be the result of luck/randomness, but a team that is consistently on the winning side of games won by 4 or more runs is probably a pretty good team. The Sox have lost two games, 6-4 to the Rays and 10-7 to the Yankees, and 7 of the wins have been by 4 or more runs.

 

15-2, however, is other worldly, especially given the last two games against the other hottest team in MLB.

 

The 5-0 record in the blowout games gives me a heck of a lot more confidence in our team than the 5-0 record in the one run games.

[Kimmi]

Northing random about the beatings the Sox have been handing out in the last week.

This is a very good team!

 

Well, I wouldn't say that there is nothing random about the beatings. There's always randomness in baseball.

 

But I get your point and completely agree.

 

We have a very good team!

[Kimmi]

When Bogey returns, we'll probably send down Lin.

 

When Pedey returns, it's Holt vs Swihart. I'd keep Swihart and send Holt to AAA.

 

As would I. For me, it has nothing to do with a dislike of Holt, but everything to do with who has the options.

[bhatley6]

 

The Red Sox bats have baseball's highest slugging percentage.

 

They have baseball's lowest strikeout rate.

 

Who does that sounds like? Last's year's champs.

 

[cp176]

I would absolutely hate to see Wright moved to the bullpen. Don't like knuckleballers out there at all. I think that he is going to have to prove once again that he can pitch at this level. I think that the competition is good for all of them. I'm thinking that Pomeranz has to show us something as well if he has thoughts about getting any kind of big payday in the future and particularly so if he wants to stay in boston. This is a damn good baseball team as is and when things are going good (great in this case) it is hard to break up winning combinations.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wright will be "rehabbing" for a full month, then needs to take his 15 day suspension. He can throw in the minors for I think the last 10 days of his suspension to get his innings up. You aren't gonna see Wright until June.

[moonslav59]

Wright will be "rehabbing" for a full month, then needs to take his 15 day suspension. He can throw in the minors for I think the last 10 days of his suspension to get his innings up. You aren't gonna see Wright until June.

 

Why up to a month?

[cp176]

What could we get for trading two out-of-options players for one better player?

 

Hembree & Holt for ________?

 

Wright & Hembree for _______?

 

Holt & Wright for ________?

 

All three for __________?

 

I'm not saying we need to weaken our bench, but we will likely have to trade or DFA Hembree or send a worse pitcher to AAA.

 

What if we just kept the guys we have and enjoyed them as much as possible.

[cp176]

4 and 0 in one run games -

16-2 overall really tells the story - great start! great team?

[Hitch]

What if we just kept the guys we have and enjoyed them as much as possible.

 

at 16-2? This seems far too sensible an idea.

[Nick]

Thornburg, Wright, Pedroia along with Poyner and Xander. This is the team those on DL are itching to join/rejoin. Wouldn't you want to be part of this group?

 

Yeah maybe it was over the top but I am glad that we picked up JD Martinez. He is a professional hitter. I have an image of him akin to a pool player. Does he go home every night with his bats in an expensive case, taking a cloth to it and making the bats shine?

 

"Pick me out a winner, Moon"

[cp176]

Thornburg, Wright, Pedroia along with Poyner and Xander. This is the team those on DL are itching to join/rejoin. Wouldn't you want to be part of this group?

 

Yeah maybe it was over the top but I am glad that we picked up JD Martinez. He is a professional hitter. I have an image of him akin to a pool player. Does he go home every night with his bats in an expensive case, taking a cloth to it and making the bats shine?

 

"Pick me out a winner, Moon"

 

I think that the Martinez signing was just an outstanding move. You are right he is a professional hitter. He is a piece of the puzzle that this team needed. I think Pomeranz is up real soon. We'll see how he does. I think our starting pitchers right now are going at it like they don't want to be the guy who screws it up. Good competition. Bullpen has looked surprisingly good lately too. Incredible run - I wish the west coast games could start earlier! lol

[kenmeister]

The record is 116 wins.

 

1906 Chicago Cubs: 116-36, winning percentage of .763

2001 Seattle Mariners: 116-46, winning percentage of .716

 

Can this Red Sox team break either the wins record, the winning percentage record, or both? A .765 winning percentage for a 162 game schedule is 124 games. Our beloved Sox are 14-2 with 146 to go, so they'd have to go 110-36 the rest of the way to break the winning percentage record, and to break the wins record and end up with 117, they'd have to go 103-43.

 

I'm starting to think merely questioning whether they can break all-time records is undervaluing this team. It feels like all the other teams are Little Leaguers.

[cp176]

Thornburg, Wright, Pedroia along with Poyner and Xander. This is the team those on DL are itching to join/rejoin. Wouldn't you want to be part of this group?

 

Yeah maybe it was over the top but I am glad that we picked up JD Martinez. He is a professional hitter. I have an image of him akin to a pool player. Does he go home every night with his bats in an expensive case, taking a cloth to it and making the bats shine?

 

"Pick me out a winner, Moon"

 

Looks like Pomeranz tonight.

[moonslav59]

What if we just kept the guys we have and enjoyed them as much as possible.

 

Out of options players could force a move. It's doubtful we will have every single player healthy at one exact time, but if it happens, we may have to trade Hembree or Wright. Holt has an option,

[jacksonianmarch]

Why up to a month?

 

I think he’s out of options and you’ve got two guys ahead of him on the pecking order in terms of 6th starter. He’s gonna be down there until his rehab/suspension clock runs out or until there’s a need.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is how you go 16-2. Your lineup has two guys slumping in Vaz and Bradley. You’ve got a couple guys being right at their typical and you’ve got 5 or so guys surging. At the same time, you start 2018 with two starters on the shelf. You had some fortuitous scheduling to allow for your team to weather it and when they pitched, they were lights out. No starter is slumping. Your closer has been ridiculous. You’re surging right now. My only hope as a Yankee fan is that it stops soon.

[cp176]

Out of options players could force a move. It's doubtful we will have every single player healthy at one exact time, but if it happens, we may have to trade Hembree or Wright. Holt has an option,

 

I know this. Some big ifs with some of these guys coming back though. I'm missing something about Hembree I think. Lots of people have been critical of him. I like him. We don't know what the current thinking is with respect to these guys coming back from various injuries. Time will tell.

[Bellhorn04]

I know this. Some big ifs with some of these guys coming back though. I'm missing something about Hembree I think. Lots of people have been critical of him. I like him. We don't know what the current thinking is with respect to these guys coming back from various injuries. Time will tell.

 

Hembree has been excellent so far in spite of a couple of rough outings. He has 13 K's and only 1 BB, and a .91 WHIP.

[Hitch]

We don't need to trade anyone right now. We can deal with the options easily and have strength on the bench and depth in AAA.

 

It's a perfect situation. Changing that right now would be stupid.

[Bellhorn04]

I think that the Martinez signing was just an outstanding move. You are right he is a professional hitter. He is a piece of the puzzle that this team needed.

 

It was a great move. Martinez seems like a nice, quiet guy who is all about his craft as a hitter. A beautiful piece to the puzzle indeed.

[cp176]

It was a great move. Martinez seems like a nice, quiet guy who is all about his craft as a hitter. A beautiful piece to the puzzle indeed.

 

i thinks so! I understand for sure that Moreland isn't the hitter Martinez is by any stretch but he is another great character move who does have some talent. Character still counts. I like thinking that before these guys are brought in, particularly the role players, the type of person they are as well as their talent gets considered. Also looks like people are just going to have to live with JD in the outfield more than they thought as well. I'm ok with that too.