Stanton or Votto

[a700hitter]

Yes, I've been thinking about the comps with Manny too.

The situation at the time we got Manny was similar too in that it was a Red Sox team that was bereft of big offensive punch after losing Mo Vaughn.

[sk7326]

I doubt the Marlins give him away. The duration is the sticking point, not the AAV. In the end, the bidding will require top talent to go to the Marlins and the entire contract will be eaten. It’s the way the world works

 

Depends on obviously Jeter's desires and the quality and quantity of offers. I don't think he is simply given away to a team that can take the entire contract. BUT, the ability to eat the whole contract is something very few teams have, and thus should have innate value as a bargaining chip.

[moonslav59]

Yes, I've been thinking about the comps with Manny too.

 

Assuming JD Martinez signs for $150M/6, look at this comp (luxury tax dollars):

 

Stanton

Age 28 $25M

Age 29 $25M

Age 30 $25M

Age 31 $25M JD $25M

Age 32 $25M JD $25M

Age 33 $25M JD $25M

Age 34 $25M JD $25M

Age 35 $25M JD $25M

Age 36 $25M JD $25M

Age 37 $25M

 

(Note: JD starts next season at age 30 and turns 31 in August. Stanton does not turn 29 until next November.)

 

I'll take the extra year at age 37 in exchange for the 3 years at ages 28-30.

 

[notin]

I really do not think he will come close to that return, even without Prado and the Marlins paying $10M a year on GS's deal.

 

 

Any one part of that deal would be ok. But, again, this is Dombrowski...

[moonslav59]

Any one part of that deal would be ok. But, again, this is Dombrowski...

 

It will be hard for DD to know for sure what others are offering, and Jeter & Co. may master creating a bidding war that is nonexistent, but I really do not think the return will be as great as you project, even without taking on Prado's sunken cost.

 

Plus, Prado probably can't even play 2B next year.

 

[notin]

It will be hard for DD to know for sure what others are offering, and Jeter & Co. may master creating a bidding war that is nonexistent, but I really do not think the return will be as great as you project, even without taking on Prado's sunken cost.

 

Plus, Prado probably can't even play 2B next year.

 

 

I was being sarcastic.

 

But DD has certainly shown in the past he doesn't discount his offer just because he is taking the whole contract...

[notin]

Presumably he'll deal Bradley to the Giants (Christian Arroyo? ) and then flip that player plus, say, ERod and maybe throw in Ball or Owens, and get Stanton and the entire contract...

[harmony]

i didn’t realize that the contract had been a 13 year contract. Manny Ramirez was signed at age 28 for 8 years. Manny put up awesome numbers for the duration of that contract. He fell precipitously afterward. $25 million AAV is not a bad value for Stanton imo and the length is long but if he produces like Manny until age 36, the contract would be an excellent value.

I posted these numbers earlier, but here are the comparative numbers for Manny Ramirez when the Red Sox signed him at age 28 and the current numbers for Giancarlo Stanton, who just turned 28:

 

MR 4095 PA, .313/.407/.592/.998, 152 OPS+, 29.9 bWAR, 30.7 fWAR

GS 4120 PA, .268/.360/.554/.917, 146 OPS+, 35.1 bWAR, 34.1 fWAR

Edited November 12, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

I posted these numbers earlier, but here are the comparative numbers for Manny Ramirez when the Red Sox signed him at age 28 and the current numbers for Giancarlo Stanton, who just turned 28:

 

MR 4095 PA, .313/.407/.592/.998, 152 ERA+, 29.9 bWAR, 30.7 fWAR

GS 4120 PA, .268/.360/.554/.917, 146 ERA+, 35.1 bWAR, 34.1 fWAR

 

ERA+? I wasn't aware both also pitched.

 

Did you mean OPS+?

[harmony]

ERA+? I wasn't aware both also pitched.

 

Did you mean OPS+?

Thanks for pointing that out. I've made the correction.

[a700hitter]

Thanks for pointing that out. I've made the correction.

Thank goodness it was a negligent misstatement of fact so it didn't undermine your credibility or ...

[harmony]

Thank goodness it was a negligent misstatement of fact so it didn't undermine your credibility or ...

Some posters take responsibility for their mistakes (because even a negligent misstatement of fact undermines credibility).

[a700hitter]

Some posters take responsibility for their mistakes (because even a negligent misstatement of fact undermines credibility).

Yeah, right. Don't take yourself too seriously.

[harmony]

Yeah, right. Don't take yourself too seriously.

Good advice.

[Kimmi]

Not really for a 28 year stud.

 

I think it is. But I'm just against those types of deal. There are very, very few players that I would break the bank for. Stanton is not one of them.

[Spudboy]

I posted these numbers earlier, but here are the comparative numbers for Manny Ramirez when the Red Sox signed him at age 28 and the current numbers for Giancarlo Stanton, who just turned 28:

 

MR 4095 PA, .313/.407/.592/.998, 152 OPS+, 29.9 bWAR, 30.7 fWAR

GS 4120 PA, .268/.360/.554/.917, 146 OPS+, 35.1 bWAR, 34.1 fWAR

 

I am curious as to how Stanton has better WAR than Manny in only 25 additional AB.

 

Is Stanton some miracle worker defensively? I s he a demon on the base paths. Or is WAR a flawed stat?

[harmony]

I am curious as to how Stanton has better WAR than Manny in only 25 additional AB.

 

Is Stanton some miracle worker defensively? I s he a demon on the base paths. Or is WAR a flawed stat?

I can only guess that Manny Ramirez was a poor defender while Giancarlo Stanton is a good defender, and that the Ramirez numbers were inflated by baseball's era of high offensive production.

[moonslav59]

I think it is. But I'm just against those types of deal. There are very, very few players that I would break the bank for. Stanton is not one of them.

 

$25M a year is not that bad.

 

What matters to me is what players go to Miami.

[notin]

I am curious as to how Stanton has better WAR than Manny in only 25 additional AB.

 

Is Stanton some miracle worker defensively? I s he a demon on the base paths. Or is WAR a flawed stat?

 

I know it's hard to believe Stanton might be a better defensive player than a left fielder who once cut off a throw from the CF from 30 feet away...

[moonslav59]

I know it's hard to believe Stanton might be a better defensive player than a left fielder who once cut off a throw from the CF from 30 feet away...

 

With Damon's noodle arm, it was actually a good play.

 

FYI, career UZR/150

 

 

Manny -20.2 (-90 DRS)

 

Giancarlo +4.4 (+45 DRS)

 

 

Baserunning:

 

Manny: -35.0

 

Giancarlo: -2.7

[sk7326]

I can only guess that Manny Ramirez was a poor defender while Giancarlo Stanton is a good defender, and that the Ramirez numbers were inflated by baseball's era of high offensive production.

 

Manny was comically bad and Stanton is average-ish defensively.

 

Now I do expect Stanton's numbers to suck defensively in LF if he played for Boston, because Boston seems to do that to left fielders.

[Slasher9]

DD - stop messing around and get us Giancarlo ASAP.

 

Please also call Mr. Fisk and tell him that 27 is being taken out of retirement for the next 10 years.

 

thank you.

[Kimmi]

$25M a year is not that bad.

 

What matters to me is what players go to Miami.

 

$25M a year is not that bad. $25M a year x 10 years is that bad. If we have to give up any players of significance it becomes beyond atrocious, IMO.

 

You know as well as I do that these types of deals almost never work out.

[Kimmi]

DD - stop messing around and get us Giancarlo ASAP.

 

Please also call Mr. Fisk and tell him that 27 is being taken out of retirement for the next 10 years.

 

thank you.

 

Concerning the matter of signing Stanton, Go Cards!

[moonslav59]

$25M a year is not that bad. $25M a year x 10 years is that bad. If we have to give up any players of significance it becomes beyond atrocious, IMO.

 

You know as well as I do that these types of deals almost never work out.

 

His 9th and 10th years are at age 36 and 37.

 

That's not that bad. It's not like the Pujols signing or the Miggy extension.

 

We get 4 years in prime prime.

 

We get 4 years of near prime.

 

We get 2 years of post prime, but not over 37.

 

The $25M luxury tax number is a steal when compared to free agent signings and the QO knocks against the signing team.

[Kimmi]

His 9th and 10th years are at age 36 and 37.

 

That's not that bad. It's not like the Pujols signing or the Miggy extension.

 

We get 4 years in prime prime.

 

We get 4 years of near prime.

 

We get 2 years of post prime, but not over 37.

 

The $25M luxury tax number is a steal when compared to free agent signings and the QO knocks against the signing team.

 

I get all that, but you're not going to convince me that signing any player to a 10 year deal is not a bad move. And that includes our beloved Mookie.

 

I am just strongly opposed to long term contracts.

[Nick]

I still think Price was a good signing. I also think we need Stanton. He will solve our power issues.

 

There's been so many pissing the money away signings in the past I can't keep track. We pissed away $10M here and there to death by God Theo and his little disciple.

[moonslav59]

I get all that, but you're not going to convince me that signing any player to a 10 year deal is not a bad move. And that includes our beloved Mookie.

 

I am just strongly opposed to long term contracts.

 

I don't disagree about long deals. They hardly ever work out well.

 

To me, the Stanton deal is different. On the free agent market, he'd be worth $40+M a year.

 

That's $250M/6. The extra 4 years from Stanton are basically for free, if you look at it this way.

 

Again, what bothers me most is what they get in return--not the money or years-- not for someone like Stanton.

[mvp 78]

DD - stop messing around and get us Giancarlo ASAP.

 

Please also call Mr. Fisk and tell him that 27 is being taken out of retirement for the next 10 years.

 

thank you.

 

What if he just wants to opt out in a couple of years? What about the rumors that he's not interested in playing in Boston?

[notin]

What if he just wants to opt out in a couple of years? What about the rumors that he's not interested in playing in Boston?

 

Has he said he doesn't want Boston? So far all I have heard is he prefers either coast.

 

And the opt out appears to be an overblown issue. If the Sox don't give up much for him, it might get them out of the later unproductive years. But still get three years in his prime.

 

If the Sox have to move Bogaerts (2 years) or Bradley (3 years) to accomodate Stanton or get the prospects to acquire him, those players will be leaving then anyway.

 

As Branch Rickshaws " it's better to give up a player a year to early than a year too late". I'd rather have 3 prime years of Stanton than 5 or 6 post-prime years of JD Martinez. ..