A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't be surprised if Moreland's role was minimal at first and Hanley was given every opportunity to return to form.

 

I think Hanley's questionable stamina and health and ancillary to hurt himself will play a bigger role in this option than the alleged platoon. ..

 

I agree. I see Moreland like a Chris Young- an expensive sub. He may end up playing vs close to half the RH'd starters.

 

Is the plan to schedule OF'er rest only at NL parks, in order to maximize JD's PAs at OF/DH? If we end up playing JD in the OF in some AL parks, it means HRam DHs and Moreland plays 1B. I guess when Pedey returns, Nunez could play the OF, instead of JD- keeping Moreland or HRam on the bench.

 

On a team with a very limited summer spending budget or facing the risk of majorpenalties for going $40+M over the limit, I'd think spending $6.5M x 2 on a back up is a luxury we could not afford. We need pitching. We need more power. Moreland is neither.

 

1Bmen are easy to find or acquire mid season. Last season was a prime example.

 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

By Kyle Downing | March 17, 2018 at 1:30pm CDT

 

First baseman Logan Morrison ended up with the Twins, but many expected the Red Sox to pursue him more aggressively than they did. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe has some interesting quotes from LoMo, who smacked 38 homers for the Rays last season but ultimately settled for a meager $6.5MM guarantee with performance escalators and a vesting option. Morrison says he himself didn’t have any conversations with Boston. His agent spoke with the club during the winter meetings, but apparently “that was it,” and clearly that discussion didn’t culminate in any serious offers. “Am I surprised? I guess. I don’t know,” he said. “I don’t know if it was the most shocking thing I saw [in the market].” The Sox ended up re-signing Mitch Moreland to play first base for them on a two-year, $13MM contract.

[moonslav59]

Here's a real hindsight comp choice:

 

Option A:

$22M x 5 JD Martinez

$6.5M x 2 Moreland

$4M x 2 Nunez

$32.5M for 2018 and 2019 plus JD afterwards as he ages

 

Option B

$12M x 1 Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb to a similar deal (maybe $14M x 1)

$6.5M x 1 Moustakas (Move Devers to DH/3B)

$6.5M x 1 Morrison (HRam to DH/1B/bench)

$4M x 1 Nunez

$29M for 2018 and zero for 2019

 

I like option A, but option B looks pretty damn good, especially with Cobb instead of Lynn.

 

How about option C?

 

$13M Cobb

$12M Lynn

$6.5M Moose

$4M Nunez

$35.5M for 2018 (leaving us with just about $3M for a summer spending budget)

 

[Spudboy]

Ugh.

 

I am so sick of the Moreland topic.

[Kimmi]

If HRam vests, kiss the extensions good bye or face the mega penalties associated with going over $40M.

 

Close the window a year or two earlier.

 

Yes, win now is great, but I thought you cared more about the future.

 

Keeping HRam means getting rid of Pom or Kimbrel (we probably lose one anyway- now it's both), or take the mega penalty and further hurt our chances at rebuilding after the window closes.

 

I care about a balance between the present and the future. I don't like sacrificing the future to win now at any costs. However, I'm also not going to sacrifice winning now with a player who is already on the team and raking just to make sure his option doesn't vest.

[moonslav59]

I care about a balance between the present and the future. I don't like sacrificing the future to win now at any costs. However, I'm also not going to sacrifice winning now with a player who is already on the team and raking just to make sure his option doesn't vest.

 

Then, we will likely say good bye to Pom and Kimbrel and have no money to try and replace them.

[Kimmi]

Then, we will likely say good bye to Pom and Kimbrel and have no money to try and replace them.

 

Kimbrel is probably going to command more than we should sign him for anyway. I've already accepted the likelihood that Kimbrel will be gone.

 

It would stink if Pom has another solid year and we are unable to re-sign him because Hanley's option vests. I understand that. However, if Hanley is hitting really well and we are in the middle of a pennant race, I am not going to give up the chance to make it to postseason play so that we will have money to re-sign Pom.

 

As many have said, the way Hanley is hitting should dictate whether he gets the at bats or not.

[Bellhorn04]

Ugh.

 

I am so sick of the Moreland topic.

 

Many of us are now, I think.

[cp176]

Kimbrel is probably going to command more than we should sign him for anyway. I've already accepted the likelihood that Kimbrel will be gone.

 

It would stink if Pom has another solid year and we are unable to re-sign him because Hanley's option vests. I understand that. However, if Hanley is hitting really well and we are in the middle of a pennant race, I am not going to give up the chance to make it to postseason play so that we will have money to re-sign Pom.

 

As many have said, the way Hanley is hitting should dictate whether he gets the at bats or not.

 

You summed it up pretty well for me here as well. I love Kimbrel and would love to see him stay here but I think that that will be up to him. I hope and I don't think the Red Sox would make a huge monetary commitment to a closer no matter how good he might be.

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel is probably going to command more than we should sign him for anyway. I've already accepted the likelihood that Kimbrel will be gone.

 

It would stink if Pom has another solid year and we are unable to re-sign him because Hanley's option vests. I understand that. However, if Hanley is hitting really well and we are in the middle of a pennant race, I am not going to give up the chance to make it to postseason play so that we will have money to re-sign Pom.

 

As many have said, the way Hanley is hitting should dictate whether he gets the at bats or not.

 

It's actually how much HRam is hitting better than Moreland/Nunez/Swihart.

 

If HRam is hitting at a pace of .280 30 100, do you play him over a Moreland at .280 25 90? Over Nunez at .300 with an OBP of .360?

 

If Moreland is hitting RHP's better than HRam, even though HRam's overall numbers are better, what then?

 

It's not just about how well HRam is doing.

 

If he's heads and shoulders above the next choice, then yes, he will play over others and reach his vest number of 497 PAs, even with us holding our noses.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Red Sox knuckleballer Steven Wright may open the season in the team’s rotation, Ian Browne of MLB.com writes. Wright, who has been working back from the season-ending left knee surgery he underwent last May, threw three innings of live batting practice Saturday and called it “a huge, huge step in the right direction.” There’s also optimism about left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who had knee surgery last October. Of Rodriguez, manager Alex Cora said, “It seems like Eddie, he’s in a sprint right now, which is great.” Meanwhile, lefty Drew Pomeranz – yet another injured Red Sox starter – will throw a minor league game Sunday as he attempts to bounce back from a mild flexor strain. Cora noted that “you can’t rule out” Pomeranz or either of the other banged-up starters from beginning the year in Boston’s rotation.

[FredLynn]

I care about a balance between the present and the future. I don't like sacrificing the future to win now at any costs. However, I'm also not going to sacrifice winning now with a player who is already on the team and raking just to make sure his option doesn't vest.

 

I guess some of it depends on whether or not we are playing well enough to win a WS. If thats the case then sure, go for it this year. But if it looks like we aren't making the playoffs-or if we are just a marginal playoff team-or if we have so many injuries that contending for a ring is a long shot-then I do not allow Hanley Ramirez to become an albatross for this team next year.

[moonslav59]

The window closes more quickly with HRam's $22M on the 2019 budget.

 

There's just no sugar coating it.

 

If he wins us a ring in 2018, it's worth it, and I'm actually someone who has faith in HRam this year, but I just can't see us getting to a point where we're thinking, "Hram is doing so well, we just can't win without him, so screw the future, let's ride the Hram wave to a 2018 ring!"

[Spudboy]

You summed it up pretty well for me here as well. I love Kimbrel and would love to see him stay here but I think that that will be up to him. I hope and I don't think the Red Sox would make a huge monetary commitment to a closer no matter how good he might be.

 

I am not so sure Kimbrel will be anxious to move on to another team.

 

His kid is really ill so my guess his FA status is not even on his mind now. Also, his kid's Doctors and the best pediatric science is in Boston.

 

We will see.

[moonslav59]

Our best hope is that Smith or Thornburg pitch well enough to give us confidence one can close next year.

 

Replacing Pom won't be easy.

[cp176]

I am not so sure Kimbrel will be anxious to move on to another team.

 

His kid is really ill so my guess his FA status is not even on his mind now. Also, his kid's Doctors and the best pediatric science is in Boston.

 

We will see.

 

I really hope that you are right. I don't even feel comfortable talking about where he might be in the future. He needs peace and space from the masses right now. He has stated that he will be ready to start the season if everything works out well for his family. I don't think anybody in their right mind would question his loyalty or his work ethic. Looks to me like he is the kind of guy you want to keep around for a long long time.

[cp176]

Our best hope is that Smith or Thornburg pitch well enough to give us confidence one can close next year.

 

Replacing Pom won't be easy.

 

 

Boy has Pomeranz come a long way or what Moon? Almost everybody absolutely hasted the trade, and now "it won't be easy" to replace Pom. Wow. I 'm one of the few who liked the trade and I would like to see us keep him obviously based on how he pitches this year. If he has to be replaced, I'm not sure that it will be that hard to do. A potentially solid mid-rotation stater.

[Bellhorn04]

The window closes more quickly with HRam's $22M on the 2019 budget.

 

There's just no sugar coating it.

 

If he wins us a ring in 2018, it's worth it, and I'm actually someone who has faith in HRam this year, but I just can't see us getting to a point where we're thinking, "Hram is doing so well, we just can't win without him, so screw the future, let's ride the Hram wave to a 2018 ring!"

 

'Screw the future', seriously?

 

It's one year, 2019.

 

No matter what, Hanley's salary is gone in 2020 and beyond, as is Pablo's.

[cp176]

I guess some of it depends on whether or not we are playing well enough to win a WS. If thats the case then sure, go for it this year. But if it looks like we aren't making the playoffs-or if we are just a marginal playoff team-or if we have so many injuries that contending for a ring is a long shot-then I do not allow Hanley Ramirez to become an albatross for this team next year.

 

I think that you are right on on this one. It all depends on a whole lot of stuff either going right or wrong.

[Larry Cook]

As of mid March, our prospects for 2018 are riding on health. We seem to have the pieces in place for a successful season, but only if we have health.

 

Specifically, we need our starters back as early as possible in the year and we need them to stay fairly healthy.

[Kimmi]

It's actually how much HRam is hitting better than Moreland/Nunez/Swihart.

 

If HRam is hitting at a pace of .280 30 100, do you play him over a Moreland at .280 25 90? Over Nunez at .300 with an OBP of .360?

 

If Moreland is hitting RHP's better than HRam, even though HRam's overall numbers are better, what then?

 

It's not just about how well HRam is doing.

 

If he's heads and shoulders above the next choice, then yes, he will play over others and reach his vest number of 497 PAs, even with us holding our noses.

 

Well I think most of that goes without saying. If the players have comparable numbers, the playing could be split in such a way that the option will not vest. If Hanley is tearing the cover off the ball and outperforming the others, it would be rather silly to keep him on the bench. That would go against my 'get your best hitters in the line up' philosophy.

[Kimmi]

I guess some of it depends on whether or not we are playing well enough to win a WS. If thats the case then sure, go for it this year. But if it looks like we aren't making the playoffs-or if we are just a marginal playoff team-or if we have so many injuries that contending for a ring is a long shot-then I do not allow Hanley Ramirez to become an albatross for this team next year.

 

I agree to a certain extent, but I think as long as we have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs, we go for it in terms of playing Hanley. Anything can happen once we get to the playoffs.

[Kimmi]

The window closes more quickly with HRam's $22M on the 2019 budget.

 

There's just no sugar coating it.

 

If he wins us a ring in 2018, it's worth it, and I'm actually someone who has faith in HRam this year, but I just can't see us getting to a point where we're thinking, "Hram is doing so well, we just can't win without him, so screw the future, let's ride the Hram wave to a 2018 ring!"

 

Having Hanley's option vest is not what is going to screw the future. As of now, the cliff is coming whether Hanley's option vests or not. I get what you're saying about his $22 mil making it harder to sign other players, but that option is not the difference maker.

[Kimmi]

I am not so sure Kimbrel will be anxious to move on to another team.

 

His kid is really ill so my guess his FA status is not even on his mind now. Also, his kid's Doctors and the best pediatric science is in Boston.

 

We will see.

 

That's a possibility. Will this be a case where a player leaves money on the table for what's best for his family? I would hope so.

[Kimmi]

'Screw the future', seriously?

 

It's one year, 2019.

 

No matter what, Hanley's salary is gone in 2020 and beyond, as is Pablo's.

 

!!!

[Hugh2]

If Hanley Ramirez has a season like 2016 again and his option vests he becomes tradeable. Teams are gearing up to spend big next year and someone who misses out on the big bats is going to have the money to spend to take a chance on him for one year.

 

This is hypothetical and built on the basis that Hanley plays well enough for his option to vest.

 

I also don't believe in looking at one player as a roadblock to not signing another (all things considered). It wouldn't be Hanley that stops the Sox from re-signing next year it would Hanley and Moreland, and Price, and JDM, etc etc etc. But again, I don't think Hanleys money is on the books for 2019. Perhaps some of you think he can hit with a .880 OPS and not be tradeable, I happen to disagree.

[jacksonianmarch]

Nate Solder's kid is sick too and it didn't stop him from signing with NY. Boston has great medical prowess. But other cities do as well. NYC, Minnesota, LA, SEA, etc all have phenomenal medical capabilities. Kimbrel will certainly consider that in his negotiation, but if you think a reliever is going to take a hometown discount, you're crazy. Kimbrel is one pitch from ending his career and shortening his earning power. If he has another 2017 this yr, then he is going to be the first reliever with a $100 mil guarantee

[Hugh2]

If there is one area the Sox are hoping to save money I'd think it would be hoping Smith and/or Thornburg could step up to replace Kimbrell.

[moonslav59]

Boy has Pomeranz come a long way or what Moon? Almost everybody absolutely hasted the trade, and now "it won't be easy" to replace Pom. Wow. I 'm one of the few who liked the trade and I would like to see us keep him obviously based on how he pitches this year. If he has to be replaced, I'm not sure that it will be that hard to do. A potentially solid mid-rotation stater.

 

I was firmly against the Pom-Espi trade, but my dislike was never based on my feelings towards Pom. I really liked Pom, but I liked Espi more. Pom has done better than what I expected, but he had a fantastic half season before we got him.

 

The trade looks great now due to Pom's great performance last year (not so much in 2016) and Espi's health issues.

[moonslav59]

'Screw the future', seriously?

 

It's one year, 2019.

 

No matter what, Hanley's salary is gone in 2020 and beyond, as is Pablo's.

 

Our window or "future" is short as it is. If HRam's contract is on the books in 2019, we'll have two major choices:

 

A) Go over the $40M limit and accept serious penalties that will hurt our FUTURE.

 

Let Pom go and/or not extend a young player into the FUTURE.

 

Yes, having HRam in 2019 will affect our future in 2019 and beyond.

 

While losing HRam and Pablo's salaries will be very helpful, we have so many stars coming off the books in such a short time period that we will need every cent to just keep most of them and pay their escalating arb costs.

 

We'll need a large influx of youth into the 25 man roster that I just don't see happening. I'm not a pessimist; I'm just being realistic.

 

$22M goes a long way towards keeping us under the $40M penalty next year while staying highly competitive in 2019.

 

 

I do see a small chance scenario where we might want HRam to get over 497 PAs, but we should allow Moreland, Swihart, Nunez and maybe even Travis a chance to show what they have got by taking PAs away from HRam. Unless HRam is hiting like he hasn't done since joining Boston, I'm limiting his PAs for the good of the team and its future.