A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

If Vazquez is fully healthy, I think it'd be safe to DFA Leon. I'd take Swihart's upside forever and ever.

 

Part of the reason our staff did so well was that Leon was catching them.

 

I'm fine with Swihart as the numnber 2, but there will be a drop off in pitcher success when he catches (IMO).

[Spudboy]

OK that's enough about Swihart's trade value...we don't want one of harmony's posts about how little trade value he has, complete with fWAR numbers and links...

 

lulz

[cp176]

But I'm sure that Swihart would much rather live in the Pacific Northwest rather than stinky old expensive New England!

 

yes yes and Harmony says it is always bright and sunny in the Pacific Northwest (rain forest) lol

[Nick]

It's nice to have so many areas where we can vastly improve without it being all that surprising. Of course, the potential is there for several not happening, but for a team that finished in first place and still having so much room to get better, I'm liking our chances.

 

(Not listed in any particular order)

 

1. Price from 11 starts to 31.

 

2. Smith from 7 IP to maybe 57.

 

3. Thornburg from 0 IP to 30+.

 

4. Devers from 240 PAs to maybe 540 or 640.

 

5. Workman from 40 IP to 70 or 80.

 

6. Maddox from 17 IP to maybe over 37.

 

7. Wright from 5 GS'd to maybe 25.

 

8. Improvements from our killer Bs (Bogey .746 to >800+?, JBJ from .726 to .780+? and Betts from .803 to .875+?)

 

9. A big year from Beni? (.776 to .850+?)

 

10. A healthy and productive season from HRam (.750 to .800+?)

 

11. Holt from 140 PA @ .548 OPS to 0 PA.

[moonslav59]

11. Holt from 140 PA @ .548 OPS to 0 PA.

 

LOL!

 

Addition by subtraction.

 

Subtract 118 PAs of Rutledge at .558

 

188 of Marrero at .593.

 

That's 470 PAs of sub .600 from from just 3 guys.

 

 

Then, there's ....

 

108 Pablo .622

 

38 Davis .595

 

All together, we'r looking at over 600 PAs of a combined sub .600 OPS.

 

[Nick]

LOL!

 

Addition by subtraction.

 

Subtract 118 PAs of Rutledge at .558

 

188 of Marrero at .593.

 

That's 470 PAs of sub .600 from from just 3 guys.

 

 

Then, there's ....

 

108 Pablo .622

 

38 Davis .595

 

All together, we'r looking at over 600 PAs of a combined sub .600 OPS.

 

 

Don't remind me of Pablo experience.......we were lead to believe to be optimistic......"He's in great shape" "He's lost so much weight" Only problem was he just couldn't hit. Talk about getting talked into being stupid. Yep I bought it all.

[harmony]

yes yes and Harmony says it is always bright and sunny in the Pacific Northwest (rain forest) lol

The Seattle winters are wet (and this week even snowy) but the Emerald City has far better weather than Boston during the baseball season.

 

Here are the average monthly precipitation totals (in inches) and average high temperatures:

 

March: BOS: 4.33, 45; SEA: 3.70, 54

April: BOS: 3.74, 56; SEA: 2.68, 58

May: BOS: 3.50, 66; SEA: 1.93, 65

June: BOS: 3.66, 76; SEA: 1.54, 70

July: BOS: 3.43, 81; SEA: 0.67, 76

August: BOS: 3.35, 80; SEA: 0.87, 76

September: BOS: 3.43, 72; SEA: 1.42, 71

October: BOS: 3.94, 61; SEA: 3.46, 60

 

It's the humidity that can make the Boston summers oppressive. As a 17-year-old hitchhiker from Iowa, I made my first trip to Boston during a heat wave that I remember as 100 degree temperatures with 99 percent humidity*. My second trip to Boston came in August 2010 when my friends and I encountered torrential rains in Rhode Island driving up to Fenway Park from New York. The exceedingly polite usher wiped the rain off of our bleacher seats at Fenway. On my final trip to Boston a cold rain drenched me at the Head of the Charles Regatta in October 2016 before the skies cleared and the temperature plummeted the following day.

 

Boston is a fine city but the weather is not my cup of tea.

* an internet search revealed that the high temperature in Boston that day in July 1973 was 95 degrees with 71 percent humidity:(

Edited February 24, 2018 by harmony

[harmony]

But I'm sure that Swihart would much rather live in the Pacific Northwest rather than stinky old expensive New England!

LOL ... I would be surprised if the Seattle Mariners would have any interest in Blake Swihart.

 

I was crucified on this forum a year ago when I suggested the Red Sox would be happy if Swihart's age 25 season last year would approach Mike Zunino's age 25 season the previous year.

 

Swihart and Zunino each peaked at No. 17 on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect lists. Like Zunino the year before, Swihart was starting his age 25 season in Triple A after a stint as a starting catcher at the MLB level.

 

In 2016, Zunino posted a wRC+ of 138 games at Triple A before posting 1.2 fWAR in only 55 games at the MLB level. In 2017, Swihart posted a wRC+ of 47 in 53 games at Triple A and an fWAR of 0.0 in six games at the MLB level. Meanwhile, Zunino in 2017 posted an fWAR of 3.6 in 124 MLB games despite being sent down to Triple A for 12 games. Mookie Bett was the only Red Sox hitter to exceed Zunino's fWAR in 2017.

 

We can only hope that Swihart can match Zunino's age 26 season.

Edited February 24, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

The Seattle winters are wet (and this week even snowy) but the Emerald City has far better weather than Boston during the baseball season.

 

Here are the average monthly precipitation totals (in inches) and average high temperatures:

 

March: BOS: 4.33, 45; SEA: 3.70, 54

April: BOS: 3.74, 56; SEA: 2.68, 58

May: BOS: 3.50, 66; SEA: 1.93, 65

June: BOS: 3.66, 76; SEA: 1.54, 70

July: BOS: 3.43, 81; SEA: 0.67, 76

August: BOS: 3.35, 80; SEA: 0.87, 76

September: BOS: 3.43, 72; SEA: 1.42, 71

October: BOS: 3.94, 61; SEA: 3.46, 60

 

It's the humidity that can make the Boston summers oppressive. As a 17-year-old hitchhiker from Iowa, I made my first trip to Boston during a heat wave that I remember as 100 degree temperatures with 99 percent humidity*. My second trip to Boston came in August 2010 when my friends and I encountered torrential rains in Rhode Island driving up to Fenway Park from New York. The exceeding polite usher wiped the rain off of our bleacher seats at Fenway. On my final trip to Boston a cold rain drenched me at the Head of the Charles Regatta in October 2016 before the skies cleared and the temperature plummeted the following day.

 

Boston is a fine city but the weather is not my cup of tea.

* an internet search revealed that the high temperature that day in July 1973 was 95 degrees with 71 percent humidity:(

 

The average humidity in Boston by month stays in a tight range from 61 to 70, Seattle's ranges from 64 to 82.

 

 

https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-Humidity-perc,Boston,United-States-of-America

 

https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-Humidity-perc,Seattle,United-States-of-America

[harmony]

The average humidity in Boston by month stays in a tight range from 61 to 70, Seattle's ranges from 64 to 82.

 

 

https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-Humidity-perc,Boston,United-States-of-America

 

https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-Humidity-perc,Seattle,United-States-of-America

Thank you for the correction on the humidity.

[moonslav59]

Thank you for the correction on the humidity.

 

I live just southwest of Houston.

 

I know my humidity. You guys are just playin'.

Edited February 24, 2018 by moonslav59

[cp176]

I live just southwest of Houston.

 

I know my humidity. You guys are just playin'.

 

I was in Houston for 1 week in 1965. There was so much heat (90+) and humidity that I felt sick all week. You do know your humidity.

[cp176]

The Seattle winters are wet (and this week even snowy) but the Emerald City has far better weather than Boston during the baseball season.

 

Here are the average monthly precipitation totals (in inches) and average high temperatures:

 

March: BOS: 4.33, 45; SEA: 3.70, 54

April: BOS: 3.74, 56; SEA: 2.68, 58

May: BOS: 3.50, 66; SEA: 1.93, 65

June: BOS: 3.66, 76; SEA: 1.54, 70

July: BOS: 3.43, 81; SEA: 0.67, 76

August: BOS: 3.35, 80; SEA: 0.87, 76

September: BOS: 3.43, 72; SEA: 1.42, 71

October: BOS: 3.94, 61; SEA: 3.46, 60

 

It's the humidity that can make the Boston summers oppressive. As a 17-year-old hitchhiker from Iowa, I made my first trip to Boston during a heat wave that I remember as 100 degree temperatures with 99 percent humidity*. My second trip to Boston came in August 2010 when my friends and I encountered torrential rains in Rhode Island driving up to Fenway Park from New York. The exceedingly polite usher wiped the rain off of our bleacher seats at Fenway. On my final trip to Boston a cold rain drenched me at the Head of the Charles Regatta in October 2016 before the skies cleared and the temperature plummeted the following day.

 

Boston is a fine city but the weather is not my cup of tea.

* an internet search revealed that the high temperature in Boston that day in July 1973 was 95 degrees with 71 percent humidity:(

 

Come and stay awhile Harmony. New England weather grows on you.

[jacksonianmarch]

Like a tumor

[cp176]

you stay down there on your side of the sound

[Bellhorn04]

The Seattle winters are wet (and this week even snowy) but the Emerald City has far better weather than Boston during the baseball season.

 

Here are the average monthly precipitation totals (in inches) and average high temperatures:

 

March: BOS: 4.33, 45; SEA: 3.70, 54

April: BOS: 3.74, 56; SEA: 2.68, 58

May: BOS: 3.50, 66; SEA: 1.93, 65

June: BOS: 3.66, 76; SEA: 1.54, 70

July: BOS: 3.43, 81; SEA: 0.67, 76

August: BOS: 3.35, 80; SEA: 0.87, 76

September: BOS: 3.43, 72; SEA: 1.42, 71

October: BOS: 3.94, 61; SEA: 3.46, 60

 

It's the humidity that can make the Boston summers oppressive. As a 17-year-old hitchhiker from Iowa, I made my first trip to Boston during a heat wave that I remember as 100 degree temperatures with 99 percent humidity*. My second trip to Boston came in August 2010 when my friends and I encountered torrential rains in Rhode Island driving up to Fenway Park from New York. The exceedingly polite usher wiped the rain off of our bleacher seats at Fenway. On my final trip to Boston a cold rain drenched me at the Head of the Charles Regatta in October 2016 before the skies cleared and the temperature plummeted the following day.

 

Boston is a fine city but the weather is not my cup of tea.

* an internet search revealed that the high temperature in Boston that day in July 1973 was 95 degrees with 71 percent humidity:(

 

You ought to try Halifax. Our weather is very similar to Boston's except 5-10 degrees colder.

[mvp 78]

New England weather sucks. It’s the main reason my wife wants to move every winter.

[harmony]

You ought to try Halifax. Our weather is very similar to Boston's except 5-10 degrees colder.

On my 1973 hitchhiking trip I ended up taking a ferry from Bar Harbor, Maine, to Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, where it was indeed 10 degrees cooler than Boston had been days before. If I recall, Maine was 10 degrees cooler as well.

Edited February 24, 2018 by harmony

[notin]

If you don't like Boston weather, come to Chicago. It's like trading snow for unbearable cold. "It's minus 20 outside, but at least I don't have to shovel it."

[Bellhorn04]

If you don't like Boston weather, come to Chicago. It's like trading snow for unbearable cold. "It's minus 20 outside, but at least I don't have to shovel it."

 

The Windy City, huh?

 

In Halifax the weather is a constant topic of conversation, partly because it can change radically from day to day and even hour to hour.

 

Every once in a while we have to remind ourselves that as much crappy weather as we get, we hardly ever get extreme weather, the kind that poses a threat to properties and lives.

[notin]

The Windy City, huh?

 

In Halifax the weather is a constant topic of conversation, partly because it can change radically from day to day and even hour to hour.

 

Every once in a while we have to remind ourselves that as much crappy weather as we get, we hardly ever get extreme weather, the kind that poses a threat to properties and lives.

 

In the Midwest, we have extreme cold, tornadoes, ice storms and serial killers, which happen often enough we consider them a form of weather...

[cp176]

On my 1973 hitchhiking trip I ended up taking a ferry from Bar Harbor, Maine, to Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, where it was indeed 10 degrees cooler than Boston had been says before. If I recall, Maine was 10 degrees cooler as well.

 

We are just about 10* cooler in Maine than those living in the greater Boston area. Travel by car one and half to two hours south of where I am and spring is in its early stages. Up here not so much. Quite a bit of snow. Ho hum - Everybody has to be somewhere.

[harmony]

I live just southwest of Houston.

 

I know my humidity. You guys are just playin'.

Author Larry McMurtry once metaphorically compared Houston, with its muggy weather, to female genitalia (that's not the word he used).

 

I've never been to Houston except in October 2016 when my Southwest flight stopped briefly at William P. Hobby Airport en route, coincidentally, to Boston.

 

I grew up on the Mississippi River in Iowa so I'm no stranger to humidity (not to mention cold, snow and tornadoes). My wife, who is from Southern California, dreads summer trips to my hometown ... almost as much as she dreads the winter trips.

Edited February 24, 2018 by harmony

[Spudboy]

The Windy City, huh?

 

In Halifax the weather is a constant topic of conversation, partly because it can change radically from day to day and even hour to hour.

 

Every once in a while we have to remind ourselves that as much crappy weather as we get, we hardly ever get extreme weather, the kind that poses a threat to properties and lives.

 

Halifax is a beautiful environment. The weather does change very quickly. I sat harbor side in Halifax and watched a front move in very rapidly. I had never seen anything like it.

[Kimmi]

That could be true. I think that they need good years for sure from these guys. Pretty obvious what Smith could bring to the bullpen and how much he might help. I think that Devers will hit and I really hope that he fields the position well.

Ramirez at first

Nunez at Second

Devers at third

Bogaerts at short

That doesn't scream good infield defense to me. I think that Devers' progression as an infielder is very important.

 

Our infield defense could be rather scary, to be frank.

 

That said, I was reading a Fangraphs article this morning that talked about how defensive chances have decreased by about 20% over the last decade, which is fairly significant. With strikeouts increasing each year, and a recently renewed emphasis on launch angle resulting in more homeruns, defense is becoming less important than it was 10 years ago. (Note: No one, especially me, is saying that defense is still not important.)

 

With that being the case, some GMs and managers have started foregoing defense to get more offense on the field.

[Kimmi]

Unfortunately, unexpected s***** things happen too.

 

Not all of those things that Moon mentioned are likely going to happen, but there a lot of areas where we should see improvement. We just need to have average to better than average good luck.

[Kimmi]

New England weather sucks. It’s the main reason my wife wants to move every winter.

 

Your wife is a smart woman. I did not move south because of the weather, but I absolutely don't miss it one bit.

[Kimmi]

We are just about 10* cooler in Maine than those living in the greater Boston area. Travel by car one and half to two hours south of where I am and spring is in its early stages. Up here not so much. Quite a bit of snow. Ho hum - Everybody has to be somewhere.

 

Meanwhile in southeastern VA, some of our trees and shrubs have already started flowering.

[cp176]

Meanwhile in southeastern VA, some of our trees and shrubs have already started flowering.

 

I think that I very easily could have lived in the Shenandoah Valley. It is one of the places that I have seen that may be more beautiful than this northeast.

[Kimmi]

I think that I very easily could have lived in the Shenandoah Valley. It is one of the places that I have seen that may be more beautiful than this northeast.

 

I do not get out that way very often, but it is a beautiful place.